Early projections for 2016 rosters

[And That]

Three months have passed since last I made an effort to project (not predict) 2016 rosters for all full season teams in the organization. A number of players have come and gone since then, obviously, so there are a fair number of adjustments. I'll aim to do a third (and final?) projection in mid-February. I am fully confident that this is not how things will end up, but it's a fun exercise to see how the minor league teams will more or less shake out. So feel free to disagree.

 

Couple of player notes... first up are injured players who played in full season ball in the last few years who do not appear on any of the projected rosters because as far as I know, their injuries will preclude them from being ready for the beginning of the season. In no particular order, they are: Johnny Davis, Ramon Flores, Daniel Missaki, Nathan Kirby, Taylor Williams, Victor Diaz. I haven't seen anything about Clint Terry's injury, so I left him in. Tanner Poppe, who went on the Biloxi Restricted List late last April, has been left out as well. If you have updates on Terry or Poppe or anyone else, let me know and I'll adjust.

 

Players who played in full season ball last year and who are healthy to the best of my knowledge, but not in the projection are: N. Mejia, P. Eshleman, R. Neda, S. Halcomb, N. Shaw, M. Meyer, L. Curtis. Mainly the reasoning is performance related. I have both Rule 5 picks making the big league club, which may or may not be realistic, but it is plausible. I'm leaving Brandon Diaz as an OF for now, though he played some second base in instructionals.

 

Should also note the glut of relievers top to bottom. I'd be surprised if the Brewers signed many more minor league pitchers between now and spring training. They have a lot to sort through as it is. I fully expect a guy like Gian Rizzo to break camp with Brevard, but right now there's no room at the inn. There will be injuries and releases before spring assignments roll around though.

 

Once again I stuck with a 12 position player/13 pitcher format for each roster.

 

Anyway, here are the projections:

 

MLB:

Catcher: J. Lucroy, M. Maldonado

1st Base: J. Rogers

2nd Base: S. Gennett

Shortstop: J. Segura

3rd Base: J. Villar

Left Field: K. Davis

Center Field: A. Presley

Right Field: R. Braun

Utility: C. Walsh, H. Perez, Sh. Peterson

RHSP : M. Garza, Z. Davies, W. Peralta, T. Jungmann, J. Nelson

LHSP: None

RHRP: T. Thornburg, J. Jeffress, C. Knebel, M. Blazek, A. Pena, J. Guerra, Z. Jones

LHRP: W. Smith

 

AAA:

Catcher: M. Pina, A. Weisenburger

1st Base: N. Ramirez

2nd Base: Y. Rivera

Shortstop: O. Arcia

3rd Base: G. Cecchini

Left Field: M. Reed

Center Field: M. Phillips

Right Field: D. Santana

Utility/DH: J. Elmore, N. Orf, B. Guez

RHSP: A. Houser, J. Lopez, T. Wagner

LHSP: B. Suter, J. Hader

RHRP: J. Chapman, D. Goforth, J. Barnes, Y. Barrios, J. Miller, T. Cravy, D. Magnifico

LHRP: J. Bradley

 

AA:

Catcher: R. Garcia, P. Berberet

1st Base: G. Cooper

2nd Base: C. McFarland

Shortstop: J. Betancourt

3rd Base: T. Brennan

Left Field: V. Roache

Center Field: T. Taylor

Right Field: C. Coulter

Utility/DH: B. Allemand, B. Macias, K. Wren

RHSP: H. Burgos, J. Ortega, B. Woodruff

LHSP: H. Johnson, W. Wang

RHRP: M. Viramontes, B. Hall, D. Tillman, A. Ross, D. Gagnon

LHRP: St. Peterson, T. Seidenburger, M. Lambson

 

Advanced A:

Catcher: C. Leal, D. Houle

1st Base: A. Sharkey

2nd Base: G. Iskenderian

Shortstop: A. Ortega

3rd Base: S. Matos

Left Field: E. Rubio

Center Field: B. Diaz

Right Field: J. Pena

Utility/DH: D. Demuth, O. Garcia, F. Castillo

RHSP : A. Ventura, D. Williams, C. Ponce, J. Salas, D. Burkhalter

LHSP: C. Terry, Z. Hirsch, K. Medeiros

RHRP: K. Earls, Z. Cooper, P. Gainey, T. Archer, S. Leiser

LHRP: None

 

A:

Catcher: M. Ghelfi, G. McCall

1st Base: D. Denson

2nd Base: T. Neuhaus

Shortstop: J. Gatewood

3rd Base: J. Cuas

Left Field: M. Collymore

Center Field: M. Harrison

Right Field: T. Clark

Utility/DH: L. Aviles, O. Cotto, C. Belonis

RHSP : E. Hanhold, J. Perrin, M. Diplan, C. Harber, J. Torres

LHSP: J. Drossner, C. Trent

RHRP: J. Uhen, G. Rizzo, K. Villegas, T. Spurlin

LHRP: L. Ortega, T. Linehan

 

Edit: I flipped Kyle Wren and Nick Ramirez to provide more balance.

[Noche]

The AAA team is loaded. I would think Nick Ramirez will be there too which makes them even more deadly. Noticed you moved Nick to AAA now which I think is correct.

 

The Biloxi team could be sneaky good if Coulter and Taylor put up some numbers. I wish Wang and Ortega could find another tick or two on their heaters. Lots of turnover in the player development staff so maybe.

 

That Brevard team may average 2 runs a game but you gotta think Medeiros might go another year without giving up a bomb. Williams and Ponce will be some of the better pitching prospects in the FSL as well.

 

WI is where most of our high end offensive talent is. I think Lara will probably be in the mix as well, at least until short season starts. Diplan will be one of the better pitchers in the MWL.

 

Nice projection. This group plus the talent we are bound to acquire in next 12 months have me pretty excited.

 

Edit: really hope Taylor Williams and Nate Kirby get healthy soon!

[ctmyers]

Few notes I made:

 

-Luke Curtis being left off - Age 23 - Started career (2014) in full season Wisconsin and pitched pretty well. Last year, ERA 3.06 in 53 innings, all in relief. I had him slated for Brevard next year.

 

-Alex Presley as the starting CF in Milwaukee. I really don't know that much about him, but it looks like he's average to below average in just about every category. Really hoping Santana (or Reed) can light it up and grab this spot out of spring training.

 

-I went back and forth between keeping Yadiel Rivera at SS, and starting out the year in Biloxi, or starting alongside Arcia in CS and making for one of the most exciting double play combos in all of baseball. Also, it would be nice to see if Orf can add a little more pop to his game and stick at 2B full time, if Rivera was kept in Biloxi.

 

-I've got Lambson as the LHRP in CS instead of Bradley. I used to watch Lambson in college. He was a Friday/Saturday starter then. He never had a power fastball, but could spot it really well in any count. His best pitches were his change up and a Zito-esque looping curve. Both really devastated college hitters. Also, threw an Eephus on occasion, which was always entertaining.

 

-I slated in Houle as the starting catcher in Biloxi and Leal in Brevard. If those two are really the only legit catching prospects in the entire organization, I'd want them getting full time work.

 

-Brevard's outfield - The organization seems stacked in the outfield at the AAA, AA, A and A- level, but aside from Brandon Diaz, I don't see a real prospect in the OF for A+. I think BC is going to have to win a lot of games 1-0, 2-1, 2-0...again.

 

Thanks for the list!

[And That]

I admit to not knowing a ton about the guy, but Luke Curtis' peripherals were sub par. He was knocked out of the Wisconsin squad by Villegas. Again, there will be injuries so I assume Curtis will indeed start out with Wisconsin or Brevard.

 

Presley is the starting CF by default at the moment. The Brewers seem to be shying away from Santana in CF, and I don't think Reed is either capable of handling CF everyday, nor is he ready to do it at the big league level anyway. That leaves Presley and Peterson, unless you think Villar can play there. I have very little doubt that Presley will not be Milwaukee's opening day CF.

 

Bradley is to the point where he needs to go or get off the pot, as it were. They put him in AAA last year, and I think they do it again. He and Lambson are almost exactly the same age, but don't you have to go with the guy you have more invested in?

 

I don't have an issue with Houle and Leal splitting time in Brevard. Houle has all of 103 ABs above short season ball, so Biloxi is a big stretch for me. If either of the two do go to Biloxi, my guess would be Leal, but it would be difficult to say that either is ready.

 

I considered Lara, Stokes, Orimoloye, and Perry for Wisconsin, but in the end I think the Brewers will be a little more conservative after the struggles Gatewood and Harrison went through last year. Clark is a different case, as his approach is so advanced. Cotto and Stokes in Wisconsin was a coin flip. I went with the older guy because it would be difficult to give enough OF work to Collymore, Harrison, Clark, Belonis, and Stokes if they were all on the same team.

[CheezWizHed]

I don't have an issue with Houle and Leal splitting time in Brevard. Houle has all of 103 ABs above short season ball, so Biloxi is a big stretch for me. If either of the two do go to Biloxi, my guess would be Leal, but it would be difficult to say that either is ready.

 

I think the problem with both is that they have very little experience in total at any level, so AA is a stretch. But it also sucks that both are best suited to be at A+. You don't start a catcher everyday, but you certainly want them both catching more than 50% of the time, too.

[Jenkins5]

They seemed pretty aggressive with Houle, wouldn't be shocked to see him in AA. Hope Betencourt plays SS. Keep versatility up and doesn't interfer with Chris McFarland's PT

[ZBTMP]

I considered Lara, Stokes, Orimoloye, and Perry for Wisconsin, but in the end I think the Brewers will be a little more conservative after the struggles Gatewood and Harrison went through last year. Clark is a different case, as his approach is so advanced. Cotto and Stokes in Wisconsin was a coin flip. I went with the older guy because it would be difficult to give enough OF work to Collymore, Harrison, Clark, Belonis, and Stokes if they were all on the same team.

 

I wish they'd move Collymore back to 2B even if they don't think he will stick there. I'll be disappointed if they can't find room for Stokes in Wisconsin. Even though he was the youngest, he had a better season than Collymore and Belonis at the plate and has better approach

[MKE81]

Khris Davis will be traded and Braun moved to LF with Santana taking over RF. There is absolutely no reason to have Santana in AAA

[And That]

Khris Davis will be traded and Braun moved to LF with Santana taking over RF. There is absolutely no reason to have Santana in AAA

Again, this is not a prediction of what I think will happen, this is a projection of where the current pieces fit in. The Brewers have seemed to indicate an unwillingness to trot Santana out any more in CF. I suppose if they think Flores will be back soon after Opening Day, they could live with Santana out there for a little bit, but then he's going back down when Flores gets back anyway.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Like you said, I could see several pitchers at each of the A ball levels moving up once everything is said and done (and free up spots for Peralta and a couple more of the college draftees from last year on the Timber Rattlers). That said, there are two I could see moving down a level. Burkhalter's a bit of a coin flip for me. He's young enough where I could see them having him start the year back in the Wisconsin rotation. The other is a tad more unlikely, but I wonder if they hold Houser back in AA. Cravy or Burgos could easily slot into the AAA rotation, and for as much success as he had after the trade, he had struggled before it, and I could see the Brewers wanting him to build upon the stronger finish with another month or two at AA, especially given the Colorado Springs factor.

[And That]

One other thing I wanted to mention is that the Brewers currently have a lot of players in the lower levels of the minor league system, more than I can offhand remember them ever having. They could easily field full teams right now in the Pioneer League, Arizona League, and DSL. In the very recent past, they've had trouble getting full rosters right up to the point where those short season leagues began.

 

Case in point, I have the following pitchers legitimately competing for, but not currently making, the Wisconsin roster out of spring training:

 

Milton Gomez, Nate Griep, J.B. Kole, Jordan Yamamoto, Miguel Diaz, Gentry Fortuno, Orlando Torrez, Jordan Desguin, Freddy Peralta, Trey Supak, Drake Owenby, Bubba Blau, Alex Farina, Caleb Smith, Aaron Myers, Scott Grist, Juan Rincon, Jon Olczak, Luke Curtis, Shawn Clowers, Trevor Lubking, Brad Kuntz, Quintin Torres-Costa, Luis Ortega (bumped from the projection above with the Hagadone acquisition trickle down), Mike Peterson, Boanerges Nova, Colton Cross, Jose Flores, Jack Finnegan, David Lucroy, Rodrigo Benoit, Karsen Lindell, and probably more when additional pitchers are acquired further up the food chain. There might be close to 40 pitchers who will be given the chance to but will not make the Timber Rattler pitching staff. That's pretty nuts.

[Mass Haas]

When you add in what will be the 2016 draft class, the number of arms is indeed "nuts" for the rookie levels.

 

I expect Helena to have its best staff ever when you consider the top 16 of this inflated batch should land there.

 

The odd thing is the Brewers went heavy on some older non-drafted free agents last summer, and at least from a statistical standpoint, most did very well.

 

There will be a bunch of young pitchers diligently going through workouts this winter and all of extended spring training who will unfortunately lose jobs, guys who would have stuck most years. It's just the sheer volume -- at least three of the Lind/Rogers acquisition arms should be in Helena next June.

[Jenkins5]

My guess is Missaki will repeat Wisconsin since he only got 2 months in last season. Then seeing how this management appears to favor young talented arms and as a fan I am hoping Diaz, Supak, and maybe a Nash Walters or another young arm to go with Diplan.... Love Wisconsin offense but pitching right now is pretty sleepy & boring.

 

We will find out about Stearns & Flannigans approach to young talent & how aggressive they will be.

[Jenkins5]

Honestly, come draft time & start of rookie ball.....it is going to be really cut throat. Our teams will not have holes on them. They are building a powerful wave between AZ to Wisconsin. System depth is key so I love it. Some of these high ceiling guys will hopefully hit

[Jenkins5]

MLB:

Catcher: J. Lucroy, M. Maldonado

1st Base: Chris Carter

2nd Base: S. Gennett

Shortstop: J. Villar

3rd Base: A. Hill

Left Field: K. Davis

Center Field: D. Santana/ R. Liriano

Right Field: R. Braun

Utility: W. Middlebrook (1B/3B), H. Perez (2B/SS/3B), Nieuwenhuis (all 3 OF)

RHSP : M. Garza, C. Anderson, W. Peralta, T. Jungmann, J. Nelson

LHSP: None

RHRP: T. Thornburg, J. Jeffress, C. Knebel, M. Blazek, A. Pena

LHRP: W. Smith C. Jimenez

 

AAA:

Catcher: M. Pina, A. Weisenburger

1st Base: A. Wilkens

2nd Base: Y. Rivera

Shortstop: O. Arcia

3rd Base: G. Cecchini

Left Field: M. Reed

Center Field: M. Phillips

Right Field: Keon Broxton

Utility/DH: Nick Ramirez, N. Orf, Kyle Wren, Colin Walsh (if trade for)

RHSP: A. Houser, J. Lopez, Z. Davies

LHSP: B. Suter, J. Hader

RHRP: Z. Jones (if trade for), D. Goforth, J. Barnes, Y. Barrios, H. Burgos T. Cravy, D. Magnifico

LHRP: J. Bradley

 

AA:

Catcher: Dustin Houle, P. Berberet

1st Base: G. Cooper

2nd Base: C. McFarland

Shortstop: J. Betancourt

3rd Base: T. Brennan

Left Field: V. Roache

Center Field: T. Taylor

Right Field: C. Coulter

Utility/DH: B. Allemand, B. Macias, K. Wren

RHSP: J. Ortega, B. Woodruff, Hirsch

LHSP: H. Johnson, W. Wang

RHRP: M. Viramontes, B. Hall, D. Tillman, A. Ross, D. Gagnon, T. Archer

LHRP: St. Peterson, M. Lambson

 

Advanced A:

Catcher: C. Leal, D. Houle

1st Base: A. Sharkey

2nd Base: G. Iskenderian

Shortstop: A. Ortega

3rd Base: S. Matos

Left Field: E. Rubio

Center Field: B. Diaz

Right Field: J. Pena

Utility/DH: D. Demuth, O. Garcia, F. Castillo

RHSP : A. Ventura, D. Williams, C. Ponce, D. Burkhalter

LHSP: K. Medeiros

RHRP: K. Earls, Z. Cooper, P. Gainey, T. Archer, S. Leiser

LHRP: C. Terry

 

A:

Catcher: M. Ghelfi, G. McCall

1st Base: D. Denson

2nd Base: T. Neuhaus

Shortstop: Isan Diaz

3rd Base: J. Gatewood

Left Field: M. Collymore

Center Field: M. Harrison

Right Field: T. Clark

Utility/DH: L. Aviles, O. Cotto, C. Belonis, Jose Cuas

RHSP : E. Hanhold, J. Perrin, M. Diplan, M. Diaz, T. Supak, N. Griep

LHSP: J. Drossner,

RHRP: J. Uhen , J. Torres, T. Spurlin, C. Harber, M. Gomez

LHRP: L. Ortega, T. Linehan, C. Trent

 

Prior to Draft Helena

C. Johel Atencio/ Zach Taylor

1B Tyrone Perry

2B Franley Mallen

SS Gilbert Lara

3B Johnathon Oquendo

LF Yerald Martinez

CF Joantgel Segovia

RF Demi Orimoloye

 

SP Walters, Lindell, Fortuno, Yamamoto

[sveumrules]

I know the OF is crowded but I think Stokes ends up in Wisco. Caught a few Helena games this summer and thought that he had the most advanced approach on the team after Clark. They're also generally listed a couple two tree inches apart but looked almost the exact same height to mine eyes.

[pogokat]

Josmil Pinto at AAA, Weisenberger at AA again IMO, unless Luc is traded.

[JohnBriggs12]

Josmil Pinto at AAA, Weisenberger at AA again IMO, unless Luc is traded.

 

Would agree the catching combo at AAA figures to be Pina/Pinto. Wouldn't shock me to see Pina beat out Maldonado though for the backup role either and see Maldonado go in a minor deal at the end of spring if Lucroy is still around. Pina's a pretty advanced bat for a catcher with pretty solid 37% caught stealing for his career.

[homer]

T-Rats are going to have a fun roster.

[MoreTrife]

T-Rats are going to have a fun roster.

 

 

Yeah. Glad they are in Appleton. I'm planning on making it up for a few games.

[CheezWizHed]

2nd Base: T. Neuhaus

Shortstop: Isan Diaz

3rd Base: J. Gatewood

 

However they pick the "normal" defensive line-up, I wonder how consistent they will be. Or if they might change some things around. From the reports, neither Gatewood or Diaz project to be long term SS. But neither has played themselves off the position either.

 

So if the above is the "normal", I wonder how often they would do the below config for the sake of positional flexibility:

2nd Base: Isan Diaz

Shortstop: J. Gatewood

3rd Base: T. Neuhaus

[homer]

Nottingham to Brevard?

[And That]

In their prospect handbook notes on Nottingham, BA said he's probably headed for AA.

[CheezWizHed]

So that piles up Houle and Leal at Brevard

[MKE81]

Khris Davis will be traded and Braun moved to LF with Santana taking over RF. There is absolutely no reason to have Santana in AAA

Again, this is not a prediction of what I think will happen, this is a projection of where the current pieces fit in. The Brewers have seemed to indicate an unwillingness to trot Santana out any more in CF. I suppose if they think Flores will be back soon after Opening Day, they could live with Santana out there for a little bit, but then he's going back down when Flores gets back anyway.

 

My comment was a "projection" based on the trend of Stearns transactions in combination with how he's stated he's transforming this organization. It was obvious Davis was going to be traded giving Santana that open spot. And that's exactly what happened. It's possible to project a player won't be on the opening day roster. Lucroy is going to be traded as well - that's a projection, not a prediction, based on Stearns trend of trading players with value to continue to pipeline for 2017 and beyond. Clearly they didn't want Santana in CF, because he's not a CF now nor long-term, hence acquiring Broxton, Liriano, etc (but specifically those two).