Braun

[DocLuna7]

The more I thought about this over the weekend, the more I believe that Braun does have a decent amount of trade value. I don't see how a guy who has put up pretty decent offensive seasons who is under contract for years (and thus cost-controlled) at a pretty reasonable AAV considering the uptick in salaries, wouldn't bring back a decent return. I can think of at least a dozen teams right now that would most definitely benefit from having Braun in their line-up. If I am Stearns, I am in no rush to trade him and would wait for a team to offer a pretty decent return.

[Boomer5]

Minor quibble, but 10 million of Braun's 5/105 extension was paid in the form of a signing bonus, so the actual terms remaining are 5/95. And his yearly salary never exceeds 19 million even before the deferrals are accounted for.

 

*$10M signing bonus (paid in 4 equal installments each April 1 from 2012 to 2015)

 

*16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout)

 

*price of option may increase to $20M based on MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove awards (if earned, award escalators are deferred without interest)

 

*$18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031

 

Gold Glove Award? Yeah, thats a good one.

 

This is a very tradeable contract at this point. Maybe the Brewer would need to take back a contract worth about half to maximize the prospect return, but with the prices for 800 OPS OF going way up, they can definitely trade him.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Which player would you rather have as a corner OF on your roster?

 

Player A - .798 OPS, .439 SLG, .359 OBP, 13 HR, 60 RBI, 23 SB

 

Player B - .854 OPS, .498 SLG, .356 OBP, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 24 SB

 

Player A is Heyward's 2015 season. Player B is Braun's. Offensively, Braun is the better player even with a balky balk and trick thumb. His 2015 WAR was almost a full 3 wins below Heyward's, due in large part to the defensive comparison and the fact that Heyward had about 40 more plate appearances. That being said, Braun would be a very sought after player in a league that's starved for corner OF offensive production. He'd also make a great DH. His current contract is not in the least a problem when it comes to maximizing his trade value. Based on his production he's actually a bargain.

 

when the Brewers want to shop Braun, there will be a solid market for him even with the PED backstory. I don't think he'll be moved this offseason because of his back surgery - teams will want to make sure he's healthy before offering up top tier prospects via trade. Assuming Braun opens 2016 with normal production and he's as healthy as he can be at this stage in his career, he'll be a trade deadline target for teams who need an impact bat.

[JohnBriggs12]

Lets see what the market is after guys like Cespedes, Upton and Gordon are signed. Anyone that would like Braun for his price can pay those guys, get similar production, and not give up anything other than a draft pick in the case of Upton or Gordon. I personally don't see a strong market for Braun until he puts up a 30 HR, 100+ RBI and close to .300 BA again. He was close to that last year. If he does it in 2016 surrounded by this outfit, and has one fewer year on his deal, they'll be plenty of suitors a year from now.

[BrewBalls]

Lets see what the market is after guys like Cespedes, Upton and Gordon are signed. Anyone that would like Braun for his price can pay those guys, get similar production, and not give up anything other than a draft pick in the case of Upton or Gordon. I personally don't see a strong market for Braun until he puts up a 30 HR, 100+ RBI and close to .300 BA again. He was close to that last year. If he does it in 2016 surrounded by this outfit, and has one fewer year on his deal, they'll be plenty of suitors a year from now.

All three should sign for more than Braun did. 5yrs/$89MM is a steal for his level of production. Now if the Brewers wanted to get creative, they could offer to pay a portion of his salary, say $10-15MM over the next 5 years and really make Braun's salary a bargain ($13-14MM per).

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't think anyone will trade for Ryan because they can never be 100% certain if they are getting Braun or Stearns.

[MrTPlush]

I would much much rather have Heyward due to defense and his age. It's not even close to be honest. I also don't have to baby Heyward all season to keep him on the field the majority of the time.

[trwi7]

I would much much rather have Heyward due to defense and his age. It's not even close to be honest. I also don't have to baby Heyward all season to keep him on the field the majority of the time.

 

You can prefer Heyward but a team looking for a bat could see Braun as an option if they miss out on Cespedes, Upton, Gordon etc. Especially if the Brewers decide to either take a contract back or pay part of Braun's salary (say we cover the $18 million deferred or even just half of that and his buyout in 2021).

 

That puts Braun on a 5 year, $73-82 million contract depending on how much deferred money we would cover. That's incredible value despite the PEDs and injuries.

 

If we get offered fair value, the only potential road block I see would be his no trade clause which allows him to block deals to every team except the Dodgers (have corner outfielders), Angels (have a need but no prospects to offer), Tampa (even at 5/75 or whatever they likely won't want that salary), Marlins (combo of Angels and Rays) and Nationals (Werth and Harper in the corners, maybe Harper moves to CF or something?)

[MrTPlush]

Braun's offense is that incredibly better than that of Heyward. It is better, but not enough to totally disregard Heyward' defense and age. The way Braun is aging and all his injury past it really wouldn't be shocking to see his numbers more closely mirror Heywards moving forward.

 

Obviously money is a factor. I think to really make Braun attractive the Brewers need to eat money. His contract isn't all that amazing and the injury concerns make any type of commitment scary.

[danzig6767]

I think that the no trade clause is the biggest hurdle, the contract is the second biggest hurdle, the recent injury situation is the third biggest hurdle, and the scandal stuff is the fourth biggest.

Why would you put the no trade clause as the biggest hurdle?

 

To me that's likely a minor hurdle. Braun isn't blind, he can see that the Brewers will be bad to terrible for the next two years and maybe longer if some of these younger players don't perform as well as hoped for, along with if Lucroy is traded.

 

So why would he block any trade which would move him to a team trying to contend for the playoffs vs staying on a Brewers team destined for lots of losing?

 

Maybe there is a city or two out there which Braun would so loathe to play/live in that he'd block a trade to a much better team, but Milwaukee isn't exactly the most attractive city to athletes either.

 

Looking at teams trying to contend next year, it's hard to find many which i'd block a trade to if the Brewers had a serious trade in the works for.

 

Besides maybe Minnesota or Cleveland, it's hard to find another potential contending team i'd consider blocking if i was Braun.

[MrTPlush]

Players will block trades for reasons outside of winning. Sometimes players demand money or other incentives. Braun could easily demand his option to be picked up and squash any possible trade. He may simply prefer playing in Milwaukee unless a trade to the west coast(most notably California) can happen.

 

We won't really know what Braun values until said trade materializes. I wouldn't be shocked to see Braun veto a trade...I also wouldn't be shocked to see him jump on the first flight out of here and talk about how much he hates Milwaukee.

[BrewBalls]

What about Braun to Toronto? Both Bautista and Encarnacion are FA after this season meaning the Blue Jays are all in this season. We could eat some of his salary to make him more affordable this season (say $9MM this season and another $16MM over the remainder of his contract). In return we get Harris, Pentecost and Espada. I would even be willing to add one of Smith, Jeffress or Blazek to get these guys back in the deal. Toronto would have one if not the best lineup in the league with Donaldson. Bautista, Tulo, Braun and EE making up their version of murder's row.

[CheezWizHed]

Anyone know what teams to which Braun can veto a trade?

 

Edit: Found it.

 

can block trades to all teams except the Angels, Dodgers, Marlins, Rays, and Nationals.

[gregmag]

I think Briggs is mostly right, except for the part where GMs still care about RBIs. Braun seems like a guy whose value is a decent bet to improve this season. If he happens to catch fire, he's a deadline sensation. Of course he could crash, but this isn't exactly a "sell high" moment.

[BrewBalls]

His batting line for the second half of the season was .301/.356/.587 with 17 HR. Not sure he is going to be much more productive than this going forward. I would trade him now and send over some cash since we can afford to eat some of his contract to increase our return.

[CheezWizHed]

Not sure he is going to be much more productive than this going forward.

 

Probably not more productive, but I'm sure some GMs are leery about the back surgery he just had. I'd bet they will want to see that he is healthy again before trading anything significant.

[BrewBalls]

Not sure he is going to be much more productive than this going forward.

 

Probably not more productive, but I'm sure some GMs are leery about the back surgery he just had. I'd bet they will want to see that he is healthy again before trading anything significant.

Good point. Braun will probably net a bigger return at the trade deadline than off season. Either way, Davis should be moved now while his value is high.

[pacopete4]

I don't think Davis has a super high value right now. If he were to begin the year swatting home runs and playing acceptable defense, I think the deadline could be the place to move him for some higher end prospects.

 

 

As for Braun, much of the same can be said. He needs to again prove his healthiness so that a club can see forking out $13-15 mil/year for him as he ages. Only then will the Brewers get a decent return on him.

[JohnBriggs12]

The White Sox are another team that's looking at OF. They've soured on Avisail Garcia who's given them replacement level performance and are kicking tires on Cespedes and Upton. But they just unloaded 3 of their better young prospects to get Frazier, and they don't have a deep system to begin with. You are probably looking at Garcia and a low level arm as a return. Spencer Adams, Jordan Guerrero and Brian Clark are decent arms in their system. Guerrero and Clark are lefties and they are pretty set with lefties at major league level, so they might well be expendable.

[BrewBalls]

The White Sox are another team that's looking at OF. They've soured on Avisail Garcia who's given them replacement level performance and are kicking tires on Cespedes and Upton. But they just unloaded 3 of their better young prospects to get Frazier, and they don't have a deep system to begin with. You are probably looking at Garcia and a low level arm as a return. Spencer Adams, Jordan Guerrero and Brian Clark are decent arms in their system. Guerrero and Clark are lefties and they are pretty set with lefties at major league level, so they might well be expendable.

I wouldn't want Garcia in return for Braun. Carson Fulmer is my starting point in any trade for Braun with the White Sox.

[MrTPlush]

The White Sox are another team that's looking at OF. They've soured on Avisail Garcia who's given them replacement level performance and are kicking tires on Cespedes and Upton. But they just unloaded 3 of their better young prospects to get Frazier, and they don't have a deep system to begin with. You are probably looking at Garcia and a low level arm as a return. Spencer Adams, Jordan Guerrero and Brian Clark are decent arms in their system. Guerrero and Clark are lefties and they are pretty set with lefties at major league level, so they might well be expendable.

I wouldn't want Garcia in return for Braun. Carson Fulmer is my starting point in any trade for Braun with the White Sox.

 

Should be a pretty quick phone call.

[brwrsfan]

Players will block trades for reasons outside of winning. Sometimes players demand money or other incentives. Braun could easily demand his option to be picked up and squash any possible trade. He may simply prefer playing in Milwaukee unless a trade to the west coast(most notably California) can happen.

 

We won't really know what Braun values until said trade materializes. I wouldn't be shocked to see Braun veto a trade...I also wouldn't be shocked to see him jump on the first flight out of here and talk about how much he hates Milwaukee.

 

There's absolutely nothing to me that would indicate Braun hates Milwaukee. In fact, all the evidence seems to point to the exact opposite of that. That said, he may not necessarily want to be part of a 3-5 year rebuild (when there's no guarantee he'd even be here when we're good again).

[Warning Track Power]

I also wouldn't be shocked to see him jump on the first flight out of here and talk about how much he hates Milwaukee.

Huh? The amount of vitriol towards Braun by some Brewer fans is no longer appropriate. The guy has done nothing but try to rebuild his reputation since his suspension and attempts to make a presence in the community (see Thanksgiving 2015). To continue to hold his PED suspension against him while he has shown nothing but contrition regarding his mistakes is pettiness defined.

[MrTPlush]

I'm just saying who knows what kind of guy Ryan Braun is. Maybe he is the kind of guy that prefers to stay in Milwaukee unless compensated well or going to the west coast to be by home. That or maybe he really doesn't care were he plays as long as he is being paid and winning. I don't really think his comments matter though. Many players talk about how much they love a city and turn around and hate on it when they leave.

 

Bottom line who knows how big of an issue the no trade clause is. Maybe it is meaningless or maybe it is a massive hurdle that would require millions to get past.

[MNBrew]

Similarly to WTP's remark, I think it's anywhere from odd to ridiculous to maddening just how determined some folks seem to have become that, because of the past (incidents of 3-4 years ago now) and because we're rebuilding and Braun has a large contract, anything other than Braun being traded before his contract's up would amount to something in between a foolish & intolerable decision.

 

Think of how the Brewers' two greatest players ever -- Yount & Molitor -- would've been over-scrutinized and raked over the coals if their respective personal/character dilemmas had happened in the current day (thinking of the late '70s major holdout & threat to leave baseball for professional golf in Yount's case, and the early '80s reported cocaine issues in Molitor's). There would've been cries to ship them out of town ASAP. . . . Nowadays too many folks are hung up on self-righteousness & intolerance of imperfection rather than forgiveness & healing.

 

To wit, a year ago, here in Vikings Country, Adrian Peterson was serious persona non grata and lots of talk-show rhetoric was focused on kicking him out of town if not the NFL for good. All references to character assumed nothing but the worst. And while folks' overall view of AP is with more open eyes, now he's the NFL's leading rusher again, doing good things, and all those lynch-mob voices of a year ago are nowhere to be heard. . . . People grow, learn, and move on from their mistakes. They don't always have to be taken down to rock bottom. Heck, Paul Hornung was suspended for a year and still is in the HOF, and nowadays no Packers fans I know talk about him as anything other than a great player.

 

Braun clearly showed in 2015 that when healthy & playing regularly, he still is in the league's upper eschelon of top players and is pretty clearly still the best player on the Brewers. While some say that's reason to trade him now (get while the getting's good & maximize return of young talent), I lean strongly toward the bird-in-the-hand side of the equation and figure he's a guy very much worth building around.