Braun

[pacopete4]

By the way: among all Outfielders in the Years 2012-2015 (i.e. the last 4 seasons), Alex Gordon ranks 6th with 18.6 WAR. Braun ranks 21st with 12.4 WAR (right in between Denard Span & Justin Upton). I think Gordon is pretty clearly a much more highly regarded overall player than Braun at this point.

 

Gordon is a year younger, too, and has generally been much healthier in recent seasons

 

When will you people stop drooling over WAR? You act as if that is the end-all be-all when it comes to a player's value. Braun has outperformed Gordon in all aspects offensively his entire career, including last year, outside of 2013 (injury/suspension) and 2014 (coming back from surgery). How convenient you failed to mention the issues surrounding 2 of those 4yrs. But, but, but...fangraphs says his Defensive WAR is XYZ. Laughable (defensive war is literally laughable at this point). Braun was a solid LF and he's an average RF. Statistically, Braun's 2012 6.8 WAR absolutely destroys Gordon's 2014 6.6 WAR season - there isn't one person that would take Gordon's 2014 over Braun's 2012. Yet their WARs were essentially the same. Gordon's highest WAR was 2011 (7.1) and even though he had 13 more ABs than Braun did in his 2012 season, Braun still posted higher numbers in runs, hits, HR, rbi, SB, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS with fewer Ks (30/30 season - Gordon's never even had a 20/20 season) and would have easily been named MVP if it wasn't for the leak and him being tied to PEDs. Gordon's stats the past 3yrs (all-star years) are worse than his previous 2yrs (2011 and 2012) when he wasn't even an all-star and where he had 2 of his highest 3 WAR seasons. Gordon's more highly regarded, in your opinion, because of Braun's roid suspension and nothing else. If Gordon ends up around 20M/yr the Brewers will be happy knowing they have a better player in the same contract (same will be said for a lot of other player's starting to get paid more than Braun as well in the next couple years)

 

Glad someone said it. MKE81 thank you.

 

A lot of people don't realize how truly great Braun is/was, whatever you want to say about him. And last year he showed signs of being that top hitter he's been for most of his career. I'll throw money down on Braun over Gordon any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

[3and2Fastball]

Defensive WAR offers us a way to quantify what many see with their own eyes. It's really as simple as that.

 

Braun's bat, during his peak, had plenty of value, no doubt about that. I prefer a more complete player. And I certainly prefer a player who is less of an injury risk and (hindsight being 20/20) won't get suspended.

 

I guarantee you that every GM in MLB, given the gift of hindsight/foresight, would take Alex Gordon over Ryan Braun if given the choice back in 2010.

 

To say that Ryan Braun has been an epic disappointment is putting it very lightly, to me.

 

Now that we have a past that can give us insight into the future, there is no way Braun ranks ahead of Gordon now

[MrTPlush]

I'm sorry but in no way is Braun even close to being average in RF. His routes are garbage and his reaction time is very poor. I feel bad for him as he shouldn't be playing out there. I can never recall him being so bad in LF so it is pretty amazing how lost he is in RF. I can agree he is pretty close to average in LF, but RF? No a chance.

 

Braun used to have elite offense, but he isn't at that level anymore. His offensive game overall is slightly better than Gordon, but Gordon is vastly better at defense. Only reason Braun would be worth notably more is because of his MVP award making teams drool about the past. If they both got deals I'd say both would be within $3mil annually of each other and that isn't too much when you start getting towards $20mil annually.

[1992casey]

What I don't want to see the Brewers doing is paying someone else 15 - 20 -25 million to have Braun playing for them.

 

Throw in that if the Brewers were to deal Braun to a team that isn't on his approved list, in order to get him to waive his no trade clause, there'd likely be even more money involved, paid by one team or the other.

[3and2Fastball]

Only reason Braun would be worth notably more is because of his MVP award making teams drool about the past. If they both got deals I'd say both would be within $3mil of each other and that isn't too much when you start getting towards $2il annually.

 

That is 100% correct. And unfortunately for the Brewers, most of the rest of the front offices in MLB are getting much wiser and much more analytically advanced. Maybe the Brewers can sneak Braun past a Dave Dombrosky type while he still has a front office job.

[BrewBalls]

What I don't want to see the Brewers doing is paying someone else 15 - 20 -25 million to have Braun playing for them.

 

Throw in that if the Brewers were to deal Braun to a team that isn't on his approved list, in order to get him to waive his no trade clause, there'd likely be even more money involved, paid by one team or the other.

I don't see anyone offering Braun more money just to waive his no trade clause. If we were looking to send him to a contender, I think he would be willing to accept the trade.

[nate82]

There are probably about two teams that make sense for a Braun trade. The Dodgers and the Angels are the ones who make the most sense.

 

 

For the Dodgers if they believe Puig is just to much of a cancer in their clubhouse I could see them offering Puig for Braun with the Dodgers taking on all of Braun's salary.

 

With the Angels it would be for someone like CJ Cron or Kaleb Cowart with the Brewers paying for a percentage of Braun's contract.

 

I don't really see a scenario where the Brewers are going to get a young prospect in return for Braun at best you are looking at someone like Cron or Cowart in terms of youth or you are looking at someone who has fallen out of favor like Puig.

[Warning Track Power]

Perhaps my fandom is outweighing my better judgment on this one, but I would prefer Braun remain with the Brewers long term. While I love the idea of re-building and going with a youth movement, I feel watching what remains of Braun's elite-ness may be one of the only sources of enjoyment as the Brewers rebuild. It would be fun to see where his final statistics rank on the all time Brewers lists, even if some of you feel they are hollow given his PED usage.

[Mr Southpaw]

There are probably about two teams that make sense for a Braun trade. The Dodgers and the Angels are the ones who make the most sense.

 

 

For the Dodgers if they believe Puig is just to much of a cancer in their clubhouse I could see them offering Puig for Braun with the Dodgers taking on all of Braun's salary.

 

With the Angels it would be for someone like CJ Cron or Kaleb Cowart with the Brewers paying for a percentage of Braun's contract.

 

I don't really see a scenario where the Brewers are going to get a young prospect in return for Braun at best you are looking at someone like Cron or Cowart in terms of youth or you are looking at someone who has fallen out of favor like Puig.

 

Braun fits the DH, reserve outfield slot perfectly. Cron fits the 1B slot for the Brewers perfectly.

[brewcrewdue80]

There are probably about two teams that make sense for a Braun trade. The Dodgers and the Angels are the ones who make the most sense.

 

 

For the Dodgers if they believe Puig is just to much of a cancer in their clubhouse I could see them offering Puig for Braun with the Dodgers taking on all of Braun's salary.

 

With the Angels it would be for someone like CJ Cron or Kaleb Cowart with the Brewers paying for a percentage of Braun's contract.

 

I don't really see a scenario where the Brewers are going to get a young prospect in return for Braun at best you are looking at someone like Cron or Cowart in terms of youth or you are looking at someone who has fallen out of favor like Puig.

 

Braun fits the DH, reserve outfield slot perfectly. Cron fits the 1B slot for the Brewers perfectly.

 

To play Albert Pujols at 1b more often than CJ Cron at 1b and instead just use Cron as DH? That tells me Cron isn't the best of 1b defenders. BRef gives him Negative runs a total of 10 in just 711 innings. Or half a season w/o extras. That'd be 20runs costing the team defensively extended to a full season. That would be 1run better than Alvarez at 1b a full season.

Braun is far better than that type of return.

[Mr Southpaw]

I would think we would get some prospects along with Cron. What would be fair?

[A Swing and A Drive]

What would be fair for Braun? If the Angels (or any team) take Ryan Braun and his entire contract off the organization's hands without the Brewers sending any money along..... I think a bucket of baseballs would be about fair.

[Boomer5]

What would be fair for Braun? If the Angels (or any team) take Ryan Braun and his entire contract off the organization's hands without the Brewers sending any money along..... I think a bucket of baseballs would be about fair.

 

I used to be in this camp but I have moved on. Braun is not my kind of guy and his contract isnt great.

 

However, it is no longer a big deal to the Brewers because clean he was a decent player last year. 5 years $100M is not that bad in 2016 and power and production are down across baseball.

 

He doesnt fit in with this team as it is rebuilding and you dont need him around now. If he gets hurt, he doesnt help and if he plays well, he hurts our draft position, which is all that matters now.

 

As Tulo showed, an aging, often injured, flawed (in his case Colorado) former mega star can bring back a big return packaged correctly. Again Im not fan of Brauns, but he is most certainly an asset in a trade.

[DocLuna7]

What would be fair for Braun? If the Angels (or any team) take Ryan Braun and his entire contract off the organization's hands without the Brewers sending any money along..... I think a bucket of baseballs would be about fair.

 

Are we really thinking that this contract is that outrageous given what some guys are getting now in free agency?

[A Swing and A Drive]

These are fair points about Braun's contract not being outrageous anymore, but my point is that it is at Market Value.

 

As a new GM on a rebuilding club, wouldn't Stearns be motivated to move on from Braun.

 

The answer is yes but it's pointless because he has little to no trade value.

 

The long suspension from MLB is undeniably a factor in this.

[pacopete4]

The long suspension from MLB is undeniably a factor in this.

 

 

What proof do you have of this? Other guys, who are not as good as Braun have been suspended and have came back and found teams with no problems.

[DocLuna7]

The long suspension from MLB is undeniably a factor in this.

 

 

What proof do you have of this? Other guys, who are not as good as Braun have been suspended and have came back and found teams with no problems.

 

I agree with this and can think of many examples off the top of my head.

[1992casey]

I think that the no trade clause is the biggest hurdle, the contract is the second biggest hurdle, the recent injury situation is the third biggest hurdle, and the scandal stuff is the fourth biggest.

 

As time goes on, the no trade clause is going to continue to be there. The contract commitment will get smaller. Hopefully, the injury issue will dissipate. And the PED thing will be further in the past.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think that the no trade clause is the biggest hurdle, the contract is the second biggest hurdle, the recent injury situation is the third biggest hurdle, and the scandal stuff is the fourth biggest.

 

The presence of these 4 big hurdles illistrates my point about Braun's trade value being nearly non-existent. We are stuck with him.

[brewcrewdue80]

If Braun was worth 3.8WAR last season and money value that would be 24.7mil-26.6mil. And prices are rising. There's no reason not to ask for a good return in any trade involving Braun. He finished at .854OPS after a first month .660OPS start. I believe Braun is better than .854 an may be closer to a .900OPS bat. He improved on his defensive numbers from the year before. I still see a 5-6WAR ability in that case. far exceeding his 16mil pricetag.

[pacopete4]

If Braun was worth 3.8WAR last season and money value that would be 24.7mil-26.6mil. And prices are rising. There's no reason not to ask for a good return in any trade involving Braun. He finished at .854OPS after a first month .660OPS start. I believe Braun is better than .854 an may be closer to a .900OPS bat. He improved on his defensive numbers from the year before. I still see a 5-6WAR ability in that case. far exceeding his 16mil pricetag.

 

 

Yeah but he's a liar so we are stuck with him now no matter if he's a good player or not.

[MrTPlush]

I have seen multiple people refer to Braun as a $16mil player....he is a $20mil player. Some of it is deferred, but that doesn't change the fact they will owe him $105mil.

[sveumrules]

Minor quibble, but 10 million of Braun's 5/105 extension was paid in the form of a signing bonus, so the actual terms remaining are 5/95. And his yearly salary never exceeds 19 million even before the deferrals are accounted for.

 

*$10M signing bonus (paid in 4 equal installments each April 1 from 2012 to 2015)

 

*16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout)

 

*price of option may increase to $20M based on MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove awards (if earned, award escalators are deferred without interest)

 

*$18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031

[rickh150]

Within the year, Braun, Lucroy and Peralta are gone..... Stearns moves already have shown that.

[logan82]

Minor quibble, but 10 million of Braun's 5/105 extension was paid in the form of a signing bonus, so the actual terms remaining are 5/95. And his yearly salary never exceeds 19 million even before the deferrals are accounted for.

 

*$10M signing bonus (paid in 4 equal installments each April 1 from 2012 to 2015)

 

*16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout)

 

*price of option may increase to $20M based on MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove awards (if earned, award escalators are deferred without interest)

 

*$18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031

5/$89m that adds up to. $20m for the option year is how I would read it. It's actually a pretty reasonable deal especially 2019 and 2020 even before the deferred money. Certainly nothing that will hurt to pay.