Braun

[reillymcshane]

Just a note from JP Breen at Baseball Prospectus regarding Braun:

 

"I do know that some teams have been sniffing around to see if Braun is available and to determine the potential cost."

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/14/david-stearns-is-accumulating-options-isnt-done/

 

Not a lot there, and it's not something we can't imagine, but it's a hint that some clubs are looking at Braun. Probably nothing there, because they are likely trying to get Ryan for cheap. But it does offer some interesting possibilities.

[pacopete4]

Teams would be silly not to check in on him. He's still a very good hitter.

[MrTPlush]

I am sure clubs are interested, but I am sure most would be hoping for more of a bargain than paying the actual price tag he is worth.

[3and2Fastball]

All it takes is one team willing to overpay though.

 

I would imagine that teams will be waiting to see how the Gordon/Upton/Cespedes signings shake out

[MrTPlush]

All it takes is one team willing to overpay though.

 

I would imagine that teams will be waiting to see how the Gordon/Upton/Cespedes signings shake out

 

For sure Braun is probably a last ditch option after FA. The problem I see if the fact his contract is pretty close to market value. He is for the most part fairly comparable to Alex Gordon overall at this point and most think Gordon will fall around that 5/$100mil point. Add the injury concerns to a close to market contract does anyone really offer enough to convince the Brewers to part with, sadly, one of their most popular players? Maybe if they really want to unload him and save the money, but not so sure they are that motivated.

 

I guess the most realistic way I see the Brewers trading him is if they eat some cash so they can actually get some decent players back. I just don't see it happening as a salary dump type deal.

[MKE81]

All it takes is one team willing to overpay though.

 

I would imagine that teams will be waiting to see how the Gordon/Upton/Cespedes signings shake out

 

For sure Braun is probably a last ditch option after FA. The problem I see if the fact his contract is pretty close to market value. He is for the most part fairly comparable to Alex Gordon overall at this point and most think Gordon will fall around that 5/$100mil point. Add the injury concerns to a close to market contract does anyone really offer enough to convince the Brewers to part with, sadly, one of their most popular players? Maybe if they really want to unload him and save the money, but not so sure they are that motivated.

 

I guess the most realistic way I see the Brewers trading him is if they eat some cash so they can actually get some decent players back. I just don't see it happening as a salary dump type deal.

 

Alex Gordon has never been and will never be comparable to Braun. Braun is better at everything except defense (he's above average in RF and solid in LF). He was a bad month away from 297/367 this past year posting 25/24. At most there were a couple others who accomplished that. The production he'll give the next 5yrs, if still here, will be better than others with that same contract or those who are paid more. I'm not against trading him if the deal is right but he's still an all-star caliber player.

[MrTPlush]

Overall value the two are fairly comparable. Braun is a better batter providing more power/speed combo, but as you said Gordon has way better defense. Their offensive games aren't that far off of each other. Obviously they aren't the same because what two batters are exactly the same?

 

Point is overall value is about the same and both are similar in age. If both were on the market they would probably get similar deals. Braun's power/speed is likely to be preferred, offensively, but Gordon doesn't have a trailer full of nagging injuries or poor defense hitched behind him.

 

Also I hope you weren't referring to Braun being above average in RF...because he is not even close to average. He honestly should not be playing RF and I doubt another team would put him there. Most would prefer a move back to LF where he is closer to average.

[3and2Fastball]

Among RF's with 350 at-bats or more in 2015, Braun ranked 31st in MLB in 2015 in Defensive WAR (according to Fangraphs). He is one of the worst defensive RF's I've seen in quite awhile.

[3and2Fastball]

By the way: among all Outfielders in the Years 2012-2015 (i.e. the last 4 seasons), Alex Gordon ranks 6th with 18.6 WAR. Braun ranks 21st with 12.4 WAR (right in between Denard Span & Justin Upton). I think Gordon is pretty clearly a much more highly regarded overall player than Braun at this point.

 

Gordon is a year younger, too, and has generally been much healthier in recent seasons

[DuWayne Steurer]

Do the Brewers really NEED to *salary dump* Braun? They've jettisoned a lot of their high salary guys, they are in rebuild mode, the team payroll is well under control, and frankly, Braun is not overpaid at all for his production, provided he stays on the field for 130 - 140 games per season.

 

If he stays reasonably healthy, he's going to be productive (hopefully) when the Brewers compete window comes back around, and he doesn't have a crippling contract. They certainly don't need to pay out cash to get rid of him. Only reason I'd be motivated to move him is if they get a ridiculous offer that's just too good to pass up.

[Boomer5]

Among RF's with 350 at-bats or more in 2015, Braun ranked 31st in MLB in 2015 in Defensive WAR (according to Fangraphs). He is one of the worst defensive RF's I've seen in quite awhile.

 

Im hardly a Braun fan these days but in fairness to him, he moved to RF to take one for the team. He turned himself into a pretty decent LF which is where anyone who traded for him would play him I would think.

 

After seeing the Heyward contract, which makes Brauns more viable, and the caliber of the Brewer MLB roster the next 2 years, I see no reason why he shouldnt be traded sooner rather than later.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd guess that this is the fallback option not on Gordon but more on Carlos Gonzalez. I'd say theres your comparison in Braun. Only Braun will be better since you aren't dealing with the Coors Field affect to many of CarGo's good batting numbers. Yes Braun is older and longer contract term. But Cargo isn't a sure thing away Coors. He'll probably produce 10-15% less in his season stats. Braun simply is safer bet to give you what you want in production.

Colorado going to kick the tires on Cargo trade offer, see how well that same offer works to get Braun. After the Lind trade, maybe you can keep one of your AA/AAA guys you were discussing to Col, and offer up the RK/A level player instead.

 

Would I trade Braun? I think he's only going to increase his value in a trade as these prices for FAs go higher. A 2nd season producing like 2015 will also curtail his bat decline from PED's. The contract moving forward with this rebuild/retool will never be a detriment we're holding. We're building from within so the team will be cheap to run. Even if Braun is 20mil of a 60mil payroll. There's 40-60million still left out on the table in the next few seasons if DS decides to pick up a pricey contract.

[BrewBalls]

I think if the Brewers are willing to eat a portion of his salary say $12-16MM ($3-4MM/year) they could get a solid return for Braun. Although personally, I would prefer to trade Davis over Braun. He should net the Crew a top 100 prospect + another low level player. The Angels could use a cheap OF option but their farm system is not the greatest. Would Gatto and Ward/Cowart be fair value?

[bill hAll Star]

Do the Brewers really NEED to *salary dump* Braun? They've jettisoned a lot of their high salary guys, they are in rebuild mode, the team payroll is well under control, and frankly, Braun is not overpaid at all for his production, provided he stays on the field for 130 - 140 games per season.

 

If he stays reasonably healthy, he's going to be productive (hopefully) when the Brewers compete window comes back around, and he doesn't have a crippling contract. They certainly don't need to pay out cash to get rid of him. Only reason I'd be motivated to move him is if they get a ridiculous offer that's just too good to pass up.

 

My issue is that this is all speculative when he is going to be fairly old. yes, he'll be at 2 or 3 years remaining and 20/18/17 million per year, but he'll be in his mid, approaching late 30s.

 

They do not need the cost savings at all on their current roster, but it might be nice to have that cash to add a younger player to the competitive core or find a better fit veteran.

 

Assuming a wave of young players in 2017 or so, his contract will end right when we need to really start paying them arby/FA buyout contracts.

 

No need to rush the trade, but I'd try to guess at his highest value in the next 2 years and make the deal, if Braun allows it. If it doesn't happen, you're right, it's not terrible.

[JohnBriggs12]

His contract isn't so much a hindrance. If Braun could opt out now, a $100 million over 5 would be about right for a player of his caliber and age. What teams won't do is pay that amount and add top talent to acquire him.

 

Brewers can certainly afford him and if he performs well over the next 2-3 years, they'll still be able to move him if they need room to extend or add other players.

[logan82]

His contract never pays more than $15m per year.

[bill hAll Star]

True...Cot's was always a bit confusing about what he is due. I didn't realize the 20/20/20/19/17 or does not factor in the deferred payments. I had assumed those would be listed further on down the road. Sometimes they list the deferred payments in the year they are due, sometimes they don't.

[pacopete4]

If you trade a guy, do the deferred payments go to the new team? Or do they stay with the original team? Or is that negotiable?

[1992casey]

Everything's negotiable.

[3and2Fastball]

Among RF's with 350 at-bats or more in 2015, Braun ranked 31st in MLB in 2015 in Defensive WAR (according to Fangraphs). He is one of the worst defensive RF's I've seen in quite awhile.

 

Im hardly a Braun fan these days but in fairness to him, he moved to RF to take one for the team. He turned himself into a pretty decent LF which is where anyone who traded for him would play him I would think.

.

 

Among all LF's, between the years 2009 & 2011, according to Fangraphs Braun ranked 32nd in defensive WAR. Right between Carlos Quentin & Delmon Young. He has never been anywhere close to even an OK defensive player.

 

Despite that he still ranked 2nd overall among all LF's during those years, and 11th among all players, because of his bat.

[DuWayne Steurer]

My issue is that this is all speculative when he is going to be fairly old. yes, he'll be at 2 or 3 years remaining and 20/18/17 million per year, but he'll be in his mid, approaching late 30s.

 

They do not need the cost savings at all on their current roster, but it might be nice to have that cash to add a younger player to the competitive core or find a better fit veteran.

 

Assuming a wave of young players in 2017 or so, his contract will end right when we need to really start paying them arby/FA buyout contracts.

 

No need to rush the trade, but I'd try to guess at his highest value in the next 2 years and make the deal, if Braun allows it. If it doesn't happen, you're right, it's not terrible.

 

 

What I don't want to see the Brewers doing is paying someone else 15 - 20 -25 million to have Braun playing for them. To me, that's a salary dump. I've seen a few suggestions of that, and if we're paying cash to get rid of him, that makes no sense. We're not in a payroll bind, and our farm system is in pretty good shape (relatively speaking, from where we were).

 

I don't think the Brewers are in a spot right now where they are so desperate to be rid of Braun that they should need to pay to be rid of him. He's still very productive, reasonably priced for his production, and *should* still be productive when we hit our compete window again.

 

If he was playing like garbage, or just grossly overpaid, or if we were at a point where our payroll was squeezed.....then I could see the point of paying someone part of his salary to take him off our hands, but we're not in any of those situations.

 

I admit his health is a concern, obviously, going forward. But he played 140 games this past year and hit pretty well, so unless they get a decent offer (which doesn't require the Brewers sending significant cash), I'm totally ok with sitting on him and letting it play out.

[brewerfan82]

I'm okay with us keeping Braun and definitely don't see the point in trading him just to trade him, but there's no reason to not listen to offers. It's a reasonable assumption that his productivity will decline the further into his contract he gets and because of that he's more valuable to a team looking to compete today than he is to the Brewers. Also, BECAUSE we're not in a financial bind is exactly why we should be willing to eat some of his contract if it allows us to get a greater return on players who can help us when we're looking to compete again. In the end, if the right offer comes along, it probably makes more sense to trade him now than to keep him and take on all the risk that he will still be a productive player when we need him to be. The question is just whether another team is willing to offer up a package worth pulling the trigger on.

[pacopete4]

Keep Braun, win the World Series. Life complete.

[Roderick]

What I don't want to see the Brewers doing is paying someone else 15 - 20 -25 million to have Braun playing for them. To me, that's a salary dump. I've seen a few suggestions of that, and if we're paying cash to get rid of him, that makes no sense. We're not in a payroll bind, and our farm system is in pretty good shape (relatively speaking, from where we were).

 

I don't think the Brewers are in a spot right now where they are so desperate to be rid of Braun that they should need to pay to be rid of him. He's still very productive, reasonably priced for his production, and *should* still be productive when we hit our compete window again.

 

I'm not strongly pro or con on trading Braun.

 

But I wouldn't automatically say it is a salary dump if we send $20M along with Braun in a trade. As you just said the Brewers have money in the budget, so they could be willing to pay a chunk of his contract, because that will mean we will get back that much better a package of prospects and also allow the low revenue and high spending (tax) teams to be part of the bidding.

[MKE81]

By the way: among all Outfielders in the Years 2012-2015 (i.e. the last 4 seasons), Alex Gordon ranks 6th with 18.6 WAR. Braun ranks 21st with 12.4 WAR (right in between Denard Span & Justin Upton). I think Gordon is pretty clearly a much more highly regarded overall player than Braun at this point.

 

Gordon is a year younger, too, and has generally been much healthier in recent seasons

 

When will you people stop drooling over WAR? You act as if that is the end-all be-all when it comes to a player's value. Braun has outperformed Gordon in all aspects offensively his entire career, including last year, outside of 2013 (injury/suspension) and 2014 (coming back from surgery). How convenient you failed to mention the issues surrounding 2 of those 4yrs. But, but, but...fangraphs says his Defensive WAR is XYZ. Laughable (defensive war is literally laughable at this point). Braun was a solid LF and he's an average RF. Statistically, Braun's 2012 6.8 WAR absolutely destroys Gordon's 2014 6.6 WAR season - there isn't one person that would take Gordon's 2014 over Braun's 2012. Yet their WARs were essentially the same. Gordon's highest WAR was 2011 (7.1) and even though he had 13 more ABs than Braun did in his 2012 season, Braun still posted higher numbers in runs, hits, HR, rbi, SB, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS with fewer Ks (30/30 season - Gordon's never even had a 20/20 season) and would have easily been named MVP if it wasn't for the leak and him being tied to PEDs. Gordon's stats the past 3yrs (all-star years) are worse than his previous 2yrs (2011 and 2012) when he wasn't even an all-star and where he had 2 of his highest 3 WAR seasons. Gordon's more highly regarded, in your opinion, because of Braun's roid suspension and nothing else. If Gordon ends up around 20M/yr the Brewers will be happy knowing they have a better player in the same contract (same will be said for a lot of other player's starting to get paid more than Braun as well in the next couple years)