Jason Heyward to Cubs; 8 years, $184 million

[Baldkin]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jason-heyward-as-a-center-fielder/

 

Of course, we want more than just anecdotes. Since Heyward entered the league in 2010, he’s racked up as much defensive value as anyone, nearly all of which has come from his range.

 

http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/HeywardCatch.gif

 

I think he'll be fine out there.

[brewcrewdue80]

This signing to me, puts Jose Fernandez within reach to acquire. Schwarber+ from the Cubs.

That to me would be a game changer. Otherwise I don't understand this signing whatsoever. You didn't need this player as much as you needed an Impact Pitcher.

[pacopete4]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jason-heyward-as-a-center-fielder/

 

Of course, we want more than just anecdotes. Since Heyward entered the league in 2010, he’s racked up as much defensive value as anyone, nearly all of which has come from his range.

 

http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/HeywardCatch.gif

 

I think he'll be fine out there.

 

 

I'm sure I could find Mark Kotsay making a diving catch in CF too. Does that mean he'd be "fine" out there? lol

[Thurston Fluff]

Im no Braun fan anymore but if he keeps up his 2015 level of production for 4 more years he will be a relative baseball bargain under his extension.

 

Sure, that is what happens with inflation in most cases. On top of that, Braun signed a "bargain" deal for financial security before he could hit the market.

 

Heyward is 26 and according to Fangraphs was the #11 best position player in all of baseball last year because of his elite defense and solid offense. We'll see if that holds true.

 

Braun is a below average defender, but not terrible. "Pretty good" bat, but he is probably only going to decline from here.

 

Of course, for the next 2-3 years, it doesn't even matter what Braun makes to me. The Brewers' payroll is somewhat irrelevant at this point. I'd like to have an extra $20 million to take risks on vets or sprinkle over the organization, but the only point it will matter is probably the 2019/2020 part of things. Who knows if he's here at that point.

 

I think defensive metrics for non critical defensive positions tend to get over rated. No one will convince me Braun is less valuable than Brett Gardner. Yet in WAR they are quite comparable depending on what site you view.

 

As to the Brewers payroll, it hardly matters the next 2 + years. This is clearly going to be a very very bad MLB team that will be picking top 1-5 consistently.

 

I brought up Brauns contract as partly a Mea Culpa on his contract and partly that he is now a very trade able asset and none of us could say that 6 months ago.

 

The problem with WAR, well the major problem with WAR, well one of the major problems with WAR, is it treats offense and defense in equal measure. Yet the minors are filled with great defensive players who can't hit a lick. You don't see many great offensive players never make the majors because they can't play defense.

[bill hAll Star]

Reports are that the Cards and Nats offered $200 million and some of the national writers are trying to piece together the logic on this.

 

Here it is: This is a brilliant signing for both sides, unfortunately for the Brewers. Heyward has guaranteed himself $184 million if he suffers a career-ending injury this Spring Training. Yes, he turned down a little over $200 in that off-case.

 

However, he's only 26 and has a front-loaded deal where he can opt out based on performance. If he performs, and let's say he gets $28 million instead of the expected $23 average in the early part of the contract, he can opt out and sign another mega deal at age 29, having already earned $84 million in 3 years. In theory, he can go sign another 8/$184 deal at age 29 and now he's made $270 million over 11 years instead of getting $205 with the Nats over 8 years and trying to sign another deal when he turns 35 at the end of the deal.

 

For the Cubs, there is the risk that Heyward gets hurt and is an albatross contract for 8 years. However, it's at least front-loaded.

 

Let's now assume that he performs well for the Cubs. He'll opt out, and while I'm sure the Cubs will miss their prime outfielder if they can't get him back, but they may actually be helping themselves out by not being able to sign a 29-year-old player to the next overblown contract he gets. In that case, they'd be risking themselves out to age 37 or 38 probably.

[JohnBriggs12]

Those cheering on the Brewers tear down for some future promise of success need to take a hard look at what they are up against. They might have a better chance of competing by spending their energy on petitioning MLB for a return to the AL rather than hoping that somehow they'll accumulate enough prospects to knock out a Cub team that will have a core of guys like Bryant, Schwarber, Russell and now Heyward in their primes in 3 to 5 years. The fact is the Brewers aren't the Cubs or the Astros. They didn't magically become placed in a major market. When whatever talent they are able produce from their system the next several years emerges, they won't be able to supplement it with guys on contracts like Heyward or Lester. That's why I'm on here always banging the drum for management to put the best team possible on the field every year. It's always going to be a long shot for the Brewers whether they are loaded with guys who were highly regarded prospects or they have a veteran team that disappointed the year before. That's the way it is. But sometimes the stars align and long shots come in. Long shot chances are better than no chance.

[homer]

Those cheering on the Brewers tear down for some future promise of success need to take a hard look at what they are up against. They might have a better chance of competing by spending their energy on petitioning MLB for a return to the AL rather than hoping that somehow they'll accumulate enough prospects to knock out a Cub team that will have a core of guys like Bryant, Schwarber, Russell and now Heyward in their primes in 3 to 5 years. The fact is the Brewers aren't the Cubs or the Astros. They didn't magically become placed in a major market. When whatever talent they are able produce from their system the next several years emerges, they won't be able to supplement it with guys on contracts like Heyward or Lester. That's why I'm on here always banging the drum for management to put the best team possible on the field every year. It's always going to be a long shot for the Brewers whether they are loaded with guys who were highly regarded prospects or they have a veteran team that disappointed the year before. That's the way it is. But sometimes the stars align and long shots come in. Long shot chances are better than no chance.

 

The KC Royals say hello.

[Fear The Chorizo]

To me this has a lot of similarities to the Carl Crawford free agent deal Theo did when he was with the red sox...good not great player signed for alot of money over a long time with the hope that he doesn't lose his athleticism too quickly. Looks like a no brainer improvement but has a decent chance of blowing up in their face.

 

I still don't love their pitching staff for next year, and I think they need to bolster that via trade and in turn thin out their bevy of young position players. I am probably also in the minority, but I think they will regret trading castro.

[craigharmann]

To me this has a lot of similarities to the Carl Crawford free agent deal Theo did when he was with the red sox...good not great player signed for alot of money over a long time with the hope that he doesn't lose his athleticism too quickly. Looks like a no brainer improvement but has a decent chance of blowing up in their face.

 

I still don't love their pitching staff for next year, and I think they need to bolster that via trade and in turn thin out their bevy of young position players. I am probably also in the minority, but I think they will regret trading castro.

 

 

Crawford is a great comp for Heyward. Only thing the Cubs did right is did the 3 year opt out, which I bet he will exercise. They're not going to be that great and the Cards are going to be worse.

[SRB]

Good, let the Cubs go all in for a window that overlaps with the Brewers rebuild. Keep on stacking up the albatrosses for 4+ years from now!

 

To be fair he is only 26. His body type might not age gracefully, and his bat is nothing special but the majority of this contract is his prime. Parra has shown us the volatility of corner outfielder defensive metrics but Heyward has been graded outstanding for awhile now. Best thing to hope for is Cubs tv is a disaster...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/despite-risks-cubs-eyeing-own-tv-network/

 

Everyone hoping it cripples them should probably realize he is only 26 and in 6 years the tail end of that contract won't look too bad.

 

Age is only half the story. I don't care how old you are, it is very difficult to stay a consistent All Star caliber player for the life of a $200M contract. There is a popular notion that if you are putting up 5 fWAR season in your mid-20s you're going to keep doing so well into your 30s. In reality, that makes you a Hall of Fame player, not something I would bet on for anyone.

[homer]

Crawford was 29. Heyward is 26.

 

Basically the Cubs took a 2.2 WAR player (Fowler) and replaced him with a 6.5 WAR player that's three years younger. That's an improvement. They are playing for the "window within the window".

 

End of the day this improves their team a great deal...and that's not even mentioning Zobrist or Lackey.

[jerichoholicninja]

I refuse to believe that Heyward's defense is that good that it makes up for his only above average offense to make him really worth $20MM a season. Especially when you consider all the great defense is in RF, but he's going to be playing CF, where I'm sure he's still above average. However, should a sub .800 OPS CF with above average defense be paid $20M a season? Was Shane Victorino in his prime ever worth that much?

 

Having said that I still think this is a pretty good deal for the Cubs. Unless he has a serious injury, he's opting out after that third year and they'll be rid of that contract. Also, his middle name is Alias, which I find hilarious.

[MrTPlush]

The fact is the Brewers aren't the Cubs or the Astros.

 

Do you even know anything about the Astros payroll last year? Their highest paid player was $10mil and his name is Scott Feldman. Their payroll was second to last and not even $70mil.

[logan82]

Those cheering on the Brewers tear down for some future promise of success need to take a hard look at what they are up against. They might have a better chance of competing by spending their energy on petitioning MLB for a return to the AL rather than hoping that somehow they'll accumulate enough prospects to knock out a Cub team that will have a core of guys like Bryant, Schwarber, Russell and now Heyward in their primes in 3 to 5 years. The fact is the Brewers aren't the Cubs or the Astros. They didn't magically become placed in a major market. When whatever talent they are able produce from their system the next several years emerges, they won't be able to supplement it with guys on contracts like Heyward or Lester. That's why I'm on here always banging the drum for management to put the best team possible on the field every year. It's always going to be a long shot for the Brewers whether they are loaded with guys who were highly regarded prospects or they have a veteran team that disappointed the year before. That's the way it is. But sometimes the stars align and long shots come in. Long shot chances are better than no chance.

 

The KC Royals say hello.

I don't have any idea why anyone would want the Brewers to strive for mediocrity. That is a losing plan. Putting the best team you can on the field when you are only a .500ish team is flat out stupid. Stockpile the talent all at one level.

[Dead Simmons]

Heyward is supposedly ranked as the best defender in the game; albeit as a RF. I am sure he would atleast be an average CF but he is spectacular in RF. He is fairly ordinary on offense. Chicago already has so much talent in their lineup that whatever Heyward gives them is gravy. Plus this also allows them to possibly flip Soler or a different outfielder for some help in other areas. 8 years and 185 is a lot of money for just an OK offensive player but its not a bad signing I don't think.

 

On a related note are the Cards in trouble? They lost Lackey and Heyward. Holliday and Molina are old as dirt and Wainright is always hurt now. Are they declining?

 

Allow me to answer that: We are screwed!!!! We just barely edged out the Pirates and Cubs last year, 2 games over the Bucs and 3 over the Cubbies. Now the Cubs get our best young defensive OF'er and solid starter in Lackey. We are already challenged by having a totally clueless manager and the self serving GM that hired him. This is the final nail in the Redbird coffin.

 

As you pointed out Holliday and Yadi are shells of their former selves. You can add Jon Jay to that category. The Cubs will win the Central easily this year.

 

I may move to Chicago.

[3and2Fastball]

Those cheering on the Brewers tear down for some future promise of success need to take a hard look at what they are up against. They might have a better chance of competing by spending their energy on petitioning MLB for a return to the AL rather than hoping that somehow they'll accumulate enough prospects to knock out a Cub team that will have a core of guys like Bryant, Schwarber, Russell and now Heyward in their primes in 3 to 5 years. The fact is the Brewers aren't the Cubs or the Astros. They didn't magically become placed in a major market. When whatever talent they are able produce from their system the next several years emerges, they won't be able to supplement it with guys on contracts like Heyward or Lester. That's why I'm on here always banging the drum for management to put the best team possible on the field every year. It's always going to be a long shot for the Brewers whether they are loaded with guys who were highly regarded prospects or they have a veteran team that disappointed the year before. That's the way it is. But sometimes the stars align and long shots come in. Long shot chances are better than no chance.

 

Like it or not, the Cubs & Astros method of rebuilding was having several years of horrible teams and amassing talent through successive Top 5 Draft picks

 

The Brewers pick 5th in 2016. Wouldn't be surprised to see them picking in the Top 5 again in 2017

 

Such is the way of Major League Baseball

[DuWayne Steurer]

Hayward walks at a much much better rate than Crawford ever has. Hayward walks about every 8 pa's. Crawford about every 20.

[craigharmann]

Hearing from my Cards fan friends, they're not happy, but expect Upton or Gordon to replace him. Yeah right. The Cards are going to take a gigantic nosedive.

[trwi7]

Hearing from my Cards fan friends, they're not happy, but expect Upton or Gordon to replace him. Yeah right. The Cards are going to take a gigantic nosedive.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if they signed either of those two. They were willing to go to $200 million for Heyward. They were willing to go towards that amount for Price. So they obviously have money and they're willing to spend it.

[gregmag]

Those cheering on the Brewers tear down for some future promise of success need to take a hard look at what they are up against. They might have a better chance of competing by spending their energy on petitioning MLB for a return to the AL rather than hoping that somehow they'll accumulate enough prospects to knock out a Cub team that will have a core of guys like Bryant, Schwarber, Russell and now Heyward in their primes in 3 to 5 years. The fact is the Brewers aren't the Cubs or the Astros. They didn't magically become placed in a major market. When whatever talent they are able produce from their system the next several years emerges, they won't be able to supplement it with guys on contracts like Heyward or Lester. That's why I'm on here always banging the drum for management to put the best team possible on the field every year. It's always going to be a long shot for the Brewers whether they are loaded with guys who were highly regarded prospects or they have a veteran team that disappointed the year before. That's the way it is. But sometimes the stars align and long shots come in. Long shot chances are better than no chance.

I'm sorry, but this just doesn't make logical sense. You appear to be saying that (a) dumb luck is possible with veterans but not with prospects, or possibly (b) we're doomed anyway, so we might as well spend more money while we're losing. That's not beating a drum. It's more like muttering incoherently under your breath.

 

Look, you've expressed the view that you feel too old to have patience for an extended rebuild. (I strongly suspect you'll actually outlive most of us here, but you don't have to believe me.). I get that. If you think you've only got x number of years to watch the team, you don't think they're going to contend in x years, and you'd rather see wins than losses, that's perfectly legitimate. It's a sport. We all want what we want out of it. Your preference is as valid as anyone else's. But don't try to dress up your preference as an argument. The reasons you want what you want, as far as I can understand, have no relevance for anyone else.