ARTICLE: Draft & Follow Candidates for 2007

[Brian the Automator]

It's time to look at the players from the 2006 draft that are eligible for the draft & follow process.

 

Thanks to Colbyjack for all his hard work again on kicking off the '07 draft "season".

 

www.brewerfan.net/ViewArt...icleId=257

[igor67]

Perhaps this would be a good point to start a discussion on what kinds of changes we will see in draft strategy this year without the DFE process. Since the rule change only affects about 40% of the players the Brewers have been drafting there has to be some sort of change.

[colbyjack]

The Brewers have been pretty consistent with the money they use for player development. When they don't have a draft pick, such as a 2nd rounder, or a particularly enticing DFE candiate, they go and spend some money on the Latin American market, like they did with Pascual and Peralta over a year ago now.

 

RJ Seidel is a good example of what to do with the money. Take a guy that is already considered a very good prospect, see what he does over the summer months (in Seidel's case, playing Legion ball), and then sign him away from college. Tom Wilhelmsen is another example of this. Maybe the Brewers never lose players like Jemile Weeks and Jake Arrieta from two short years ago knowing they don't have to save that money for anything and also knowing that if those players don't sign by August 15th, they are no longer under their control.

 

Maybe take a draft-eligible sophomore that is a perceived tough sign and follow him over the summer, such as on the Cape League, to see if such a player is worth a big investment.

 

Take a junior that had a disappointing season and see if they can turn things around over the summer (USC's Paul Koss, a senior now, would have been a perfect example of this from a year ago, as he had a greats sophomore year, a bad junior, and then bounced back as a Cape All-Star).

 

Take a chance on an injured player that regains his health in time for the summer. San Diego's Nate Boman is a great example of this, who pitched well on the Cape last year before the Red Sox (I think it was the Red Sox), signed him.

 

David Newmann, whom the Brewers drafted last year, may have been a perfect example of this as well.

 

Or, you just sign the players you have normally taken anyway, such as Chad Robinson and Lee Haydel. The DFE process also effects the decisions of the players, and more players may be push more towards signing out of high school knowing they can't be followed via the DFE process. Of course they're still eligible to be drafted after one year in junior college, but the DFE process seems to inflate the value of attending a JC.

 

It's funny, I think Mass Haas provided a link a few weeks ago to a roundtable discussion (I think on scout.com) in which several of the participants debated that the DFE process was unfair. Unfair? If teams like the Brewers used the process more so than most other teams I have a hard time believing that it was unfair. The Brewers definitely used the process more than most in an attempt to find yet another niche, as Jack Zduriencik has been on record several times in saying that he and his department have to be creative in how they evaluate and procure talent. It's a good point igor to note that now is the time to start thinking about new ways to find that niche since one of their favorite "advantages" is about to be gone.

[Mass Haas]

We all think of Dana Eveland and Manny Parra, but let's remember that Lorenzo Cain, Darren Ford, Tim Dillard, Robert Hinton, and Derek Miller are all DFE's. Others are still at the lower levels and are too early in their careers to comment on.

[heresrobin]

Colby, any word on what ever happened with Tim Smith? I believe he was the highest drafted DFE from the 2005 class. He seemed to be doing OK with whatever CC he was with. Is he going to get drafted again by anybody? Just curious.

[colbyjack]

Tim Smith is now playing at ASU, although he is having a hard time cracking a starting lineup that includes Matt Spencer in left and Ike Davis in right (recent LSU transfer Jarred Bogany is in center). He already has seen some time as a late-inning replacement and pinch hitter, and as long as ASU continues to blow out opponents, he will continue to get those opportunities.

 

I have heard that Smith was looking for a six-figure bonus last year. When you factor the money with the fact that he would have taken a work visa, since he's a native Canadian, to play pro ball in the states, it made his signing a little more difficult than most players. He's a good hitter, and he has some speed, but he's an outfield 'tweener in that he doesn't have the ideal speed or range to play center and he doesn't have the ideal power for a corner spot. He should get drafted in the top 5-7 rounds this coming June, possibly in the 3-5 range depending on how many ABs he gets this spring.