Lind to Mariners for 3 lower level RHP prospects (Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, Freddy Peralta)

[Lee16]

I get the whole thing about restocking the farm, but you have to win at least a few games over the next 3 or 4 years, don't you?

 

Were the Cubs still lamenting their crappy 2013 record during the playoffs this year, or were they happy to have Kyle Hendricks as the #4 starter all season because they traded away Ryan Dempster in 2012?

 

I'm talking about winning some games to keep the fans happy and coming to the ballpark. The people who frequent this board know we're rebuilding and what it's going to include and the lean years coming down the line. The average fan out there doesn't, when a parent takes their kids to the Brewer game, all they want to see is a Brewer win. The Cubs are a storied franchise with a huge market, they are going to draw their diehard fans and fill that park no matter what. The Brewers don't have that luxury. A year or two more of 60-69 win baseball and attendance is going to plummet, and revenues with it.

[MrTPlush]

We gave up nothing to get Lind and he didn't really get any better in the year we had him. I am not sure why people are so shocked we didn't get much.

 

And to answer your question I think they are trying to put a half interesting roster. We still have Braum, Nelson, Davis, and Santana. 2017 we will have the Phillips/Arcia excitement.

[Lee16]

With all the talk about Stearns wanting to get a CF, I have this feeling Santana will be starting the season in the minors, if he stays all year, who knows?

[BrewBalls]

I get the whole thing about restocking the farm, but you have to win at least a few games over the next 3 or 4 years, don't you?

 

Were the Cubs still lamenting their crappy 2013 record during the playoffs this year, or were they happy to have Kyle Hendricks as the #4 starter all season because they traded away Ryan Dempster in 2012?

Don't forget, losing a lot of games allowed them to draft high enough to get Baez, Almora, Bryant and Schwarber.

[CheezWizHed]

The average fan out there doesn't, when a parent takes their kids to the Brewer game, all they want to see is a Brewer win.

 

I'd argue that most people know the general state of a team, especially when there is a GM/Coaching transition. People in general will be patient for a few years of bad baseball.

 

Baseball is also one sport where you can have a lot of fun just going without a win. My kids love to go and their enjoyment is barely effected by a win or loss.

 

 

The Cubs are a beer garden with a huge market, they are going to draw their drunken fans and fill that park no matter what.

 

Fixed.

[BrewBalls]

I'm talking about winning some games to keep the fans happy and coming to the ballpark. The people who frequent this board know we're rebuilding and what it's going to include and the lean years coming down the line. The average fan out there doesn't, when a parent takes their kids to the Brewer game, all they want to see is a Brewer win. The Cubs are a storied franchise with a huge market, they are going to draw their diehard fans and fill that park no matter what. The Brewers don't have that luxury. A year or two more of 60-69 win baseball and attendance is going to plummet, and revenues with it.

You can allow your revenue to plummet when your payroll is on the $60-70 million range versus $110 million to start the season. Bandwagon fans will come and go based on if the team is winning or losing but die hard fans who understand the rebuild process will still show up.

[RobertR]

I get the whole thing about restocking the farm, but you have to win at least a few games over the next 3 or 4 years, don't you?

 

Were the Cubs still lamenting their crappy 2013 record during the playoffs this year, or were they happy to have Kyle Hendricks as the #4 starter all season because they traded away Ryan Dempster in 2012?

Don't forget, losing a lot of games allowed them to draft high enough to get Baez, Almora, Bryant and Schwarber.

 

And there's still the question of whether they can field the ball well enough to be more than the Brewers 2.0.

[gregmag]

People always make this argument about how the team has to be halfway interesting, but they never really quantify it. Assume we're about a 70-win team at this moment. Assume we can only get a replacement-level guy to replace Lind. Assume Lind would have been worth 2 WAR to us next year. (Obviously any of these assumptions may be high or low, but I'd argue they're reasonable.) Is someone really going to argue that the difference between 70 and 72 wins will make a significant difference to the fan base? With Rodriguez I'd argue the difference is even less, because closers don't add a ton of value and because we have strong in-house candidates to replace him.

 

If you aggregate all our trade losses -- Gomez, Fiers, Parra, plus Lind and Rodriguez -- then maybe, maybe, you're looking at as much as a ten-win swing. But even if we're talking about ten wins, can anybody tell a credible story about how that significantly affects the organization's health? Especially given BrewBalls' point about the diminished payroll? I might take this concern seriously if I thought the tear-down would poison the fan base by making them bitter for years. But (a) that never happens, anywhere; fans always come back when the team gets good again; (b) people in Milwaukee don't tend to get bitter; and © Brewers fans are used to losing anyway.

 

I think actual contention for the playoffs creates excitement and juices attendance. But if we're trolling for 80 wins when the three teams ahead of us have a great shot at 90, then I don't think anybody much cares. At that point, we're better off giving up 10 or even 15 wins as the price of building a sustainable future contender.

[bjkrautk]

You can allow your revenue to plummet when your payroll is on the $60-70 million range versus $110 million to start the season. Bandwagon fans will come and go based on if the team is winning or losing but die hard fans who understand the rebuild process will still show up.

 

I'm sure that I'll end up watching / listening on the radio to about 90% of Brewers games throughout the rebuild - because that's what I do - but I'll be scaling back my trips to Miller Park if they're not playing good baseball (either due to style of play or talent discrepancy). There's a difference between being a "die hard" fan and subsidizing a non-competitive team; it's not bandwagon fandom, so much as rational behavior.

[NievesNoNO]

We gave up nothing to get Lind and he didn't really get any better in the year we had him. I am not sure why people are so shocked we didn't get much.

 

And to answer your question I think they are trying to put a half interesting roster. We still have Braum, Nelson, Davis, and Santana. 2017 we will have the Phillips/Arcia excitement.

 

Pretty much agree with this. We traded a 32 year old platoon 1st baseman with an injury history with one year remaining on his contract. I have no idea if the 3 guys he was traded for will amount to anything or even see a MLB game but I like the risk. Heck, I'd even question whether or not anybody in the organization even saw them pitch live but maybe I'm underestimating the depth of scouting departments.

 

I'll be a much bigger judge of a LuCroy trade if and when that happens.

[Austin Tatious]

I'm talking about winning some games to keep the fans happy and coming to the ballpark. The people who frequent this board know we're rebuilding and what it's going to include and the lean years coming down the line. The average fan out there doesn't, when a parent takes their kids to the Brewer game, all they want to see is a Brewer win. The Cubs are a storied franchise with a huge market, they are going to draw their diehard fans and fill that park no matter what. The Brewers don't have that luxury. A year or two more of 60-69 win baseball and attendance is going to plummet, and revenues with it.

You can allow your revenue to plummet when your payroll is on the $60-70 million range versus $110 million to start the season. Bandwagon fans will come and go based on if the team is winning or losing but die hard fans who understand the rebuild process will still show up.

 

If the payroll tanks, I really hope we go bonkers on signing international players. I don't know what we can do in Cuba, but get out there and spend on prospects and be clever that way. Or take savings on payroll for the next few years and bank it go above the norm in future years. Payoff the fans with capital investment.

[Austin Tatious]

Personally, I am with you guys who are all in on a longer range build up of the organization which involves multiple high draft picks. In 2016 we have a the number 5 pick. Let's hoep we can get one of Alec Hansen, AJ Puk and Jason Groome. Any of them could profile as an ace. That's what we need. We have some prospects to be in that sort of number 2-5 slots in the rotation, when you look at guys like Ponce, Lopez, and existing Jimmy Nelson, along with hopefully Hader, maybe Nate Kirby, Devin Williams, etc. But, we need that big dog. In the second round, I have my eye on the Wisconsin high school catcher, plus we have the comp balance pick.

 

Then, expect 2016 to be bad, and come back with another, say, top 7 pick in 2017. Hope we can get an elite prospect. That draft has some big time catchers. JJ Schwartz and KJ Harrison come to mind. Or maybe we can find a nice 1b or 3b that's a no brainer.

 

Let this talent and depth of talent coalesce. And this time when the critical mass develops, don't trade away the next wave like we did last time. Targeted trades are ok. But we can sustain success by maintaining the farm system and keeping the organizational depth going.

[SRB]

With all the talk about Stearns wanting to get a CF, I have this feeling Santana will be starting the season in the minors, if he stays all year, who knows?

 

I certainly hope that Santana doesn't get demoted before Davis gets traded. No offense to Khris, but he's the antithesis of what we need as a rebuilding team. Send him to a contender as a solid regular in LF (or a DH), and let Santana develop in the majors.

[StearnsFTW]

I would really love to see what other offers we had on the table for Lind. I get the whole thing about restocking the farm, but you have to win at least a few games over the next 3 or 4 years, don't you?

 

This deal...I don't know. I imagine the conversation ended with Stearns saying, "Okay, paperwork is submitted, remember you agreed you owe us one on the next deal, right? Right? Hello?"

 

I personally couldn't care less how many games the Brewers win over the next 3 years as long as the farm remains in good shape, the young guys are playing and our future payroll is clean.

[rickh150]

So............... lottery tickets for Lind???? Not even a somewhat proven piece we can put with the AA group? Not what I expected.

[Bombers]

Personally, I am with you guys who are all in on a longer range build up of the organization which involves multiple high draft picks. In 2016 we have a the number 5 pick. Let's hoep we can get one of Alec Hansen, AJ Puk and Jason Groome. Any of them could profile as an ace. That's what we need. We have some prospects to be in that sort of number 2-5 slots in the rotation, when you look at guys like Ponce, Lopez, and existing Jimmy Nelson, along with hopefully Hader, maybe Nate Kirby, Devin Williams, etc. But, we need that big dog. In the second round, I have my eye on the Wisconsin high school catcher, plus we have the comp balance pick.

 

Then, expect 2016 to be bad, and come back with another, say, top 7 pick in 2017. Hope we can get an elite prospect. That draft has some big time catchers. JJ Schwartz and KJ Harrison come to mind. Or maybe we can find a nice 1b or 3b that's a no brainer.

 

Let this talent and depth of talent coalesce. And this time when the critical mass develops, don't trade away the next wave like we did last time. Targeted trades are ok. But we can sustain success by maintaining the farm system and keeping the organizational depth going.

Well said. This is where I am at. I actually might make it more games with my kids as the cost of good seats will be lower than in the past. My guess is we draw near the same amount of fans as last year

[LouisEly]

The Cubs are a beer garden with a huge market who still haven't won anything, they are going to draw their drunken fans and fill that park no matter what.

Fixed.

[igor67]

My biggest concern with the trade is that it doesn't seem to acknowledge that playing is something of a limiting quality in the organization. I'm all for adding prospects in the lower minors, but given our larger depth compared to prior years you start to run into problems trying to develop these lesser prospects since there are only so many innings to go around. At the AAA by contrast we've seen our new GM ditch Doug's potential nuggets and bench players in favor of bringing in his own guys. These guys are all freely available talent, so it's not a big deal. This however is taking a major league asset (his precise value may be up for debate but is irrelevant to my point) and seemingly converting it pitchers that were not significantly better prospects then the best 7 or so we already had at those levels. So there is a real opportunity cost there that needs to be considered.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Can't understand why anyone wouldn't like this trade. Stearns shopped him around, got 3 long term call options and continues to build depth at all levels in the system. These guys are teenagers...who knows what they'll turn into. All we have with Lind is a guy who could take a 65 win team and turn them into a 68 win team. Just keep accumulating talent David.

[RobertR]

Can't understand why anyone wouldn't like this trade. Stearns shopped him around, got 3 long term call options and continues to build depth at all levels in the system. These guys are teenagers...who knows what they'll turn into. All we have with Lind is a guy who could take a 65 win team and turn them into a 68 win team. Just keep accumulating talent David.

 

You can't understand that people may not like that the Brewers may have just turned a proven, reasonably priced, major leaguer into three guys that are unlikely to amount to anything?

 

I think it's possible to agree with Stearns' overall plan, and question individual decisions. Now, none of us know what else was on the table, but the Brewers farm system has come far enough that you can make an argument that lower risk quality might be more important than higher risk quantity at this stage. Especially since the Mariners farm system isn't exactly swimming in talent. And the money available would have been the same in either case.

[Invader3K]

The Cubs are a beer garden with a huge market who still haven't won anything, they are going to draw their drunken fans and fill that park no matter what.

Fixed.

 

To be fair, you could say almost the exact (minus the "big market") same thing about the Brewers.

 

Getting back to the trade at hand, I think some had their expectations too high for what Lind would bring. We weren't going to get a super prospect for an aging 1B with one year left on his contract.

[BrewBalls]

You can allow your revenue to plummet when your payroll is on the $60-70 million range versus $110 million to start the season. Bandwagon fans will come and go based on if the team is winning or losing but die hard fans who understand the rebuild process will still show up.

 

I'm sure that I'll end up watching / listening on the radio to about 90% of Brewers games throughout the rebuild - because that's what I do - but I'll be scaling back my trips to Miller Park if they're not playing good baseball (either due to style of play or talent discrepancy). There's a difference between being a "die hard" fan and subsidizing a non-competitive team; it's not bandwagon fandom, so much as rational behavior.

I can understand your point. I'm sure my family will be doing the same. At least our home games against the Cubs will still sell out with all the Chicago fans willing to make the trip.

[Fear The Chorizo]

We have to remember the model Stearns was a part of before becoming the brewers gm....Houston was atrocious at the MLB level for three seasons, which came after several more seasons of decline. They took the long approach, almost sacrificing the quality of the MLB roster in order to acquire prospects by all possible means.

 

I think the brewers currently have more in the cupboard than the Astros did when they were on the way to rock bottom, but it will be interesting to see if Stearns wants to build around some of the talent in its prime at or near the MLB level, or go scorched earth like Houston did a handful of years ago.

[RobDeer 45]

I'm all for going "scorched earth" because I don't think we have a ton of talent. If our young pitching surprises, we could be some what competitive, but if not, we mind as well get rid of everyone and try to sync up a talented group in a couple years. I think that anyone we get in a trade for someone like Lind, that has some sort of upside, is a good move. On this board, we tend to expect much more for our players in trade value than they are actually worth on the market. Keep stocking the system!

[Boomer5]

Can't understand why anyone wouldn't like this trade. Stearns shopped him around, got 3 long term call options and continues to build depth at all levels in the system. These guys are teenagers...who knows what they'll turn into. All we have with Lind is a guy who could take a 65 win team and turn them into a 68 win team. Just keep accumulating talent David.

 

You can't understand that people may not like that the Brewers may have just turned a proven, reasonably priced, major leaguer into three guys that are unlikely to amount to anything?

 

I think it's possible to agree with Stearns' overall plan, and question individual decisions. Now, none of us know what else was on the table, but the Brewers farm system has come far enough that you can make an argument that lower risk quality might be more important than higher risk quantity at this stage. Especially since the Mariners farm system isn't exactly swimming in talent. And the money available would have been the same in either case.

 

Agreed. Moving on from Lind makes perfect sense for a team that is likely to lose 95-100 games with or without Lind. That isn't the issue.

 

The issue is trading for 3 guys that (I havent read every single post, so apologies if I missed one) all of us hard core fans had to go to google to find out who they were. That says a lot. It is VERY likely that none of the 3 will develop into anything based on their profiles. Could they? Sure, I suppose so. You'd have to be a very optimistic fan to spin this trade as anything other than a salary dump on a player who had a pretty darn reasonable contract.

 

To put it another way, we did trade away a good asset and acquired no one that will crack our own top 30 or move the needle on our farm system to any degree at all.

 

On paper, it appears that Doug picked up more for 2 months of Aram than DS picked up for a year of Lind. Ditto Parra.

 

Time will tell but so far this offseason is a whole let less compelling than Dougs final two months. I am hardly a Doug fan, but so far the new guy hasnt shown much.