Lind to Mariners for 3 lower level RHP prospects (Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, Freddy Peralta)

[BrewersAA]

3 young talented pitching prospects for 1 season of a good MLB 1B who is often injured and needs to be platooned?! This was a great trade

 

Very very good to continue rebuilding the farm with young pitching.

Agreed. Wily Peralta was 19 at the end of the 2008 season. BF.net had him ranked 30th

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewPower50.do?power50Id=89

 

So to me, it's hard to say this is a horrible trade. We traded K-rod for the Orioles 5th best prospect and he flopped quickly. So for me, I am fine with the trade. Stearns has my trust

 

He played in the AFL for the whitesox, won an award, and they really like him as a prospect.

[brewcrewdue80]

Anyone disappointed with the return is WAY overvaluing Adam Lind here. This is a guy who should rarely see the field at 1B or face a LHP in order to keep him on the field and maximize his production.

 

His wRC+ of 119 ranked 47th in MLB last year among qualifiers and 18th among 1B/DH. Sure he is a relative bargain at 8 million but even if you project him at 2 WAR next year (he's at 2.2, 1.9. 1.6 the last 3 years) that only leaves about 8 million in surplus value. According to the most recent studies hitters in the back end of the top 100 prospects have an average surplus value of 11.6 million with pitchers in the back end of the top 100 coming in at 9.6 million. Lind also is not a good candidate for the qualifying offer as he is very likely to accept.

 

Except Lind is Lefty and the odds are Seattle faces 77-83% RHP starters. Lind got 112PAs vs LH Pitchers last season. A weakness, that as being said he will be platooned with Seattle. So now Lind facing just RHP will only get Positive value as a batter and not get negative value when he's facing 20% of his PAs vs what he's weak against. He'll probably jump to 3.5-4WAR in value with just his RHP numbers. Seattle is obviously looking to compete and won't, like the Brewers of last season, start him vs LHP. Injury not included to the Platoon partner.

 

It's underwhelming in return because none of the return has a clear shot of ML ability. I think LouisEly gave that 7mil or so was the value of 1WAR. Lind at 3.0 last season is of 21mil based on that theory. He's a 3WAR likely batter being paid 8mil. Just the 13mil in the value saved should net a ML type of talent.(Garza's price) Gallardo to me had less value than Lind. And I fully expect Lind to get a QO from Seattle after the season. Unlike Gallardo to my amazement. We already had 2 ML players in Gallardo's trade with the Lottery ticket in Diplan. All we got was lottery tickets and no ML players.

If the experts were blurbing Zunino/Peterson being in/out in trade discussions, it means Zunino was mouthed at one point by someone to be denied it. Suddenly going from Zunino to trio among no one's top 30?

 

Again, I will be watching Herrera's numbers as he grows, because his size/velocity and curveball development could make him an elite get for the Brewers franchise. 4years to find this out. At his age and size one very good year to turn special could occur.

[BrewersAA]

I think what a lot of people don't like is that Stearns is not doing the typical run of the mill stuff a GM would do in these situations.

 

To be honest I am OK with scratching my head because hopefully that means Stearns is trying to get ahead of times and not planning to win in the future with the current model. Too many teams are getting stuck trying to win by the ways of yesteryear.

 

My disdain for this trade has nothing to do with winning. Milwaukee is the smallest market in all of baseball. Trading vets for years of controllable assets is the name of the game; and melvin was not great at it. the problem i have is when you trade that vet, or guy thats paid (vet is relative), the years of control you trade for must have equal VALUE. because there will come a point when you need to trade out of depth to add the piece you need, something that oakland (and wherever Epstein is) is always so good at. so you cant take value and turn it into nothing, this isnt houston, you cant afford it. if you had to trade these guys what would you get? and the answer is nothing. thats why the Gallardo trade was one of melvins best. the top player coming back was sardinas, who played the same position as our incumbent best prospect, but he had value, so you could trade him for a different piece. neither of these three offer that.

 

Really? Gallardo for a guy with a ceiling of utility player now? You're calling that Melvin's best?

 

I know nothing about these 3 prospects and fully know there is about a 10% chance at best of MLB success and I'd take this package of players over Luis Sardinas.

 

Knebel and Diplan also came back in that deal, not just sardinas. all 3 of them has about as much value individually and all these of the lind guys put together... yes it was an excellent trade.

[Raw Biz]

 

Exactly. I'm pretty sure nobody heard of Orlando Arcia when he was a 16 year old playing the DSL, unless you were reading the DSL box scores and the Minor League forum. This is a very knowledgeable board and I would say many, if not the majority, of posters on this board were not even aware of him at that time.

 

But is it really? All I read are proposals that over-inflate the value of the Brewers players. This board "believes" they're knowledgeable. There wasn't one person that posted a response even remotely close to the return in this Lind trade. EVERY proposal was for their top tiered younger pitchers or higher level position players. The LARGE majority of comments since this trade all cry about how this was horrendous. They do so because they don't have a clue how to value players correctly nor how to evaluate talent they seek nor how a successful small/mid market team rebuilds top down. They can't find any scouting info on these three players so it's automatically a horrendous trade because they can't drool over a "scouting report", "projection", "top prospects" lists, etc while simply citing Lind was a 3 WAR player so we should have solely landed known commodities in return. I'm not saying I'm the opposite of this but I'm not going to complain when I know extremely little about these players. I'm still learning how Stearns is operating and what his mind set is (ie how he's going about rebuilding this entire organization). If Stearns trades Khris Davis, which he absolutely should, I can't wait to read those responses when some of you find out his actual worth. A guy some people here speak highly of when he's had 3 productive months offensively the past 2 years (mind you with a 265/330 line as well) while having an absolutely horrendous arm allowing runners to take advantage and move 1st to 3rd on balls hit right at him

 

Relative to other message boards and taking the entire board as a whole (not just this topic) into consideration, yes this is a knowledgeable message board. If you read other teams' message boards (or the JS online comments), you will see what I'm talking about. The majority of those consists of calling each other names and blanket statements without providing facts to back it up.

[Boomer5]

Just for clarification baseball reference has Lind at 3.1 WAR for 2015 which is what i was quoting.

 

I have zero idea what kind of arms we obtained only that for a relatively cheap year of a solid 1B we should receive someone we know.

 

This does feel like we are getting too cute here and trading a very real asset for 3 small RHP that no one on a hard core baseball board has ever heard of. Or we just traded for Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux in our 2021 rotation.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I would previously have compared the return to a supplemental first rounder, as I would have assumed that Lind was a candidate for a QO and would thus return us a draft pick if he left as a free agent. However this offseason for the first time we saw a number of players accepting the qualifying offer, so the risk-reward scenario there might have shifted a bit.

 

I don't know enough about the prospects to have a strong opinion, but after years of Melvin needing major league ready talent, this seems like a welcome change given where the Brewers are right now. I'm happy to see us taking some risk in the hopes of a greater return in the future. I didn't want to see a marginal 3b coming back, for example...better to wait for a real solution there and work on building the system's talent level.

[trwi7]

I have zero idea what kind of arms we obtained only that for a relatively cheap year of a solid 1B we should receive someone we know.

 

[sarcasm]Agreed. We should've traded Lind for Luis Sardinas.[/sarcasm]

[BrewersAA]

Or the brewers could have just kept lind and just signed 3 small LA kids this summer... maybe thats what makes me so angry. if thats what you wanted, just go sign them yourself next year. I dont know how they have the "lottery ticket" attached to them, none of them have tremendous upside right now, they are soft tossing small righties. you can literally just go sign three of your own this year and still have lind or trade him for something of value.

[StearnsFTW]

The Gallardo trade is a great example of why this trade isn't any worse or better right now.

 

The Gallardo trade we took the known commodity and he ended up being a total flop. We could have done something very similar with DJ Peterson and have the same dang outcome.

 

i dont know that you can say he flopped in the few ABs he had, but he STILL had value, and because another play for our system. thats the point, he was still an asset, on top of knebel and Diplan. none of these three can be flipped for anything because they dont have value.

 

Maybe they could be flipped for a 3WAR 1b.

 

Your knowledge of their value is the same as the rest of ours, which is to say very little.

[Funketown]

Just for clarification baseball reference has Lind at 3.1 WAR for 2015 which is what i was quoting.

 

I have zero idea what kind of arms we obtained only that for a relatively cheap year of a solid 1B we should receive someone we know.

 

This does feel like we are getting too cute here and trading a very real asset for 3 small RHP that no one on a hard core baseball board has ever heard of. Or we just traded for Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux in our 2021 rotation.

 

 

That's fair, but projecting him forward I'd prefer to take into account at least three years (I think I remember rluz saying 20% on three years ago, 30% on two years ago, 50% on one year ago is a nice rule of thumb). So realistically I'm skeptical of projecting him as a 3 WAR guy for next year.

[MrTPlush]

Besides all the obvious risks and problems with Adam Lind I am not sure I would want to offer $17mil to a guy who, in two trades, has brought back a guy in Marco Estrada who was likely to be DFAed and three prospects who can't even rank in the top 30 of one of the worst systems in baseball.

 

For a guy who had 21 teams interested in him he doesn't seem to bring back much value. Way too risky to be offering $17mil to a guy like that. He has only made $30mil in his career I bet $17mil for a year would be really nice.

[brewcrewdue80]

Or the brewers could have just kept lind and just signed 3 small LA kids this summer... maybe thats what makes me so angry. if thats what you wanted, just go sign them yourself next year. I dont know how they have the "lottery ticket" attached to them, none of them have tremendous upside right now, they are soft tossing small righties. you can literally just go sign three of your own this year and still have lind or trade him for something of value.

 

Herrera carries plenty of projection, but as a 17-year-old with one season in the Dominican Summer League he has a long way to go. A skinny 6-foot-3, 170-pounder, Herrera has a promising high-80s-to-low-90s fastball and has shown the ability to spin a curveball.

 

Certainly not small nor soft tossing at 17. If he's touching low 90s at 17 with his height, I wouldn't put it out of him to reach 100s in a year or 2. Mid 90s for sure.

[sveumrules]

Except Lind is Lefty and the odds are Seattle faces 77-83% RHP starters. Lind got 112PAs vs LH Pitchers last season. A weakness, that as being said he will be platooned with Seattle. So now Lind facing just RHP will only get Positive value as a batter and not get negative value when he's facing 20% of his PAs vs what he's weak against. He'll probably jump to 3.5-4WAR in value with just his RHP numbers. Seattle is obviously looking to compete and won't, like the Brewers of last season, start him vs LHP.

 

Ok, so in 112 PA's against LHP last year Lind produced a 54 wRC+. Fangraphs doesn't have splits for their value stats, but I looked up the closest batter I could find to Lind's splits against lefties and got Mike Olt, 102 PA's with a 56wRC+. For that offensive offensive output he received -5.2 batting runs.

 

Last year Lind was credited with 12.4 batting runs so subtracting his left production he is at about 17.6 batting runs as a righty. But batting runs is only one component of WAR. Lind was credited with 16.7 runs just for playing time. Subtract his lefty plate appearances (19.5% of all PA's) and his playing time is now only worth 13.4 runs.

 

Add it all up and you have 2015 Adam Lind producing 12.4 batting runs plus 16.7 runs for playing time and he is at 29.1 runs before accounting for defense, baserunning or position.

 

Now lets take hypothetical 2015 Adam Lind producing 17.6 batting runs only against righties with only 13.4 runs for playing time in the same scenario and you are now at 31 runs before defense, baserunning or position. A marginal difference of 2 runs or about .2 WAR.

 

Starting at 3 WAR for Lind in 2016 is already a huge assumption. Saying he would be worth 3.5-4 if platooned is an even huger assumption as the numbers above bear out. A good number of the runs gained by being platooned are eaten up by receiving that much less playing time.

[MrTPlush]

Herrera carries plenty of projection, but as a 17-year-old with one season in the Dominican Summer League he has a long way to go. A skinny 6-foot-3, 170-pounder, Herrera has a promising high-80s-to-low-90s fastball and has shown the ability to spin a curveball.

 

Certainly not small nor soft tossing at 17. If he's touching low 90s at 17 with his height, I wouldn't put it out of him to reach 100s in a year or 2. Mid 90s for sure.

 

Agreed a ton of kids will add a lot of velocity in the 18-22 range. Knew someone who was throwing 92 his senior year of high school and he exploded at 20 years old and got up to 98. Now while said person was also 6-7 it doesn't change the fact that players don't usually mature velocity wise until they get into their lower 20s.

[Brewer Fever]

Keep in mind Stearns took this deal over offers from two other teams and there were 12 teams that showed significant interest. It's not like they didn't have other options including offers with players at more advanced levels and even major leaguers. That's why I say this is a pure scouting trade. They must really see something in these 3 kids. They identified something projectable in them that made them comfortable going this route over say a flawed AA or AAA player(s).

 

The way I'm looking at this trade is that it's like today was the June draft and these are 3 high schoolers that we just drafted in rounds 6-8.

[Austin Tatious]

We know Stearns is an analytics guy. It's striking based on the data that's been provided how all three guys have high SO/BB ratios. The ERA was nothing to write home about, but all three had killer SO/BB ratio.

 

From an analytics standpoint, that jumps off the page.

[gregmag]

Fangraphs has these WAR numbers for Lind:

 

2010: -0.7

2011: 0.2

2012: -0.1

2013: 1.6

2014: 1.5

2015: 2.2

2016 (Steamer projection): 1.3

 

A lot of people keep tossing around the notion that Lind is "a 3-win player." That's only plausible if you make all the following assumptions: (a) 2015, and not any other recent season of Lind's career, represents his true talent level; (b) Lind will likely avoid a decline at age 32; © Lind will likely stay healthy going forward; (d) Baseball Reference WAR is more accurate than Fangraphs WAR.

 

If I'm Seattle, and I'm trying to drive a hard but honest bargain, I tell David Stearns that I value Lind as a 1.5 to 2.0-win player at the dead end of the defensive spectrum who will require a platoon partner and late-inning defensive replacement. For the privilege of paying $8 million for that season, I'll give up something but not a whole lot.

 

If I'm Stearns, and assuming no other team is making an irrational offer, I think: I could hold onto Lind until the deadline, but he'll be 32, has a major injury history, and is coming off his best season other than his age-25 outlier peak, so better to deal him now. Then I think: I could maybe get a mid-top 30 prospect or two out of Seattle's weak system, guys who have already gone a great distance toward showing that they won't be useful big leaguers. Luis Sardinas types. On the other hand, I could aim below the radar and take some young kids with room to grow.

 

How this deal went down makes perfect sense to me.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like the trade on paper, trade a border line platoon guy like Lind with a bad back and 1 year on his contract for three very young pitchers who may or may not develop into something. Will it work out? Who knows? We will have to wait a few years to even begin to guess. If they even hit on one of them it was more than worth it. I trust Stearns because I believe he is very smart and has good people working around him.

[Austin Tatious]

Last night or early this morning I saw a tweet from, I believe, Jon Heyman, mentioning the catcher Mike Zunino being mentioned. I wonder if that was something we were asking for or what was going on there. That was interesting. Zunino is a former 3rd overall pick who hasn't produced at the MLB level.

[adambr2]

Frankly, these guys are all dart throws, and there's a fair chance that none will ever contribute at the MLB level.

 

With that said, I like the approach, I'm glad we're sacrificing MLB ready for upside and focusing more on the long-term than looking at the next 2-3 year 'window.'

 

Assuming we're no longer on the hook for any of Lind's 8M this year, I'm satisfied with the return for Lind who I never expected to bring a substantial haul anyway.

[MrTPlush]

Last night or early this morning I saw a tweet from, I believe, Jon Heyman, mentioning the catcher Mike Zunino being mentioned. I wonder if that was something we were asking for or what was going on there. That was interesting. Zunino is a former 3rd overall pick who hasn't produced at the MLB level.

 

Agreed I wish we knew what was up with Zunino. How does a trade go to talking about Zunino, who has MLB experience, to three teenagers? Weird change of direction. Wonder if Stearns wanted him as just a back up or for something bigger like to take over for Lucroy if they trade him. Stearns has already added two guys for the MLB roster and is looking for a new CF so maybe it was just to be the back up and to boot Maldonado out.

[Crash2303]

For comparisons of familiarity, Miguel Diaz, Carlos Luna, and Gian Rizzo. All three posted similar numbers at similar ages at DSL and rookie leagues respectively. All three are probably within our system's #40-75 range.

 

For reference, I'd put our newcomers in this prospect order with the above mentioned players:

1) Carlos Herrera

2) Miguel Diaz

3) Daniel Missaki

4) Carlos Luna

5) Freddy Peralta

6) Gian Rizzo

 

So, essentially i don't think its too far off base a comparison to ask, would you have traded on year of Adam Lind for Miguel Diaz, Carlos Luna and Gian Rizzo?

[BrewCrewForever]

I was glad they did not get Zunino. I know he is just turning 25, but he has been awful in his 3 big league season. If he does improve, I doubt it would be by much. Would rather get three young arms that have potential .

[homer]

At the end of the day, I'd prefer prospects that are slightly more projectable. Kids in the DSL and short season...so hard to get any sense of what they might be. But I do like the peripheral numbers all the same. It's nugget accumulation time, folks. No quick fixes.

[BrewBalls]

#Brewers officially announce the trade of Adam Lind to the Seattler #Mariners for RHPs Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, and Freddy Peralta.

 

Oh.......

Don't know any of them, but I am happy to have them in the system. This is really buying a lottery ticket, but I'm okay with that.

 

actually three lottery tickets. but a lottery ticket's worth is dependent on how big the jackpot is and how good the odds are of winning. From what I've read so far of the scouting reports, it looks like the jackpot (their ceiling) isn't exactly the powerball and the fact that they're so far away from the majors, are pretty long odds of getting that winning ticket, much less three. but, who knows, hopefully see them all in 2022 in blue and yellow.

Buying three lottery tickets instead of one gives you better odds of winning. Maybe their floors are not as high as say, DJ Peterson but I would prefer gambling on three pitchers who are already showing advanced control and ability to miss bats over an average to slightly above average offensive 1B who is already considered a negative defensively.

Like others have stated, Stearns seems to be targeting specific players who fit a certain style of play which might not be the current "best practice" of how to build a championship roster. But he might already be two steps ahead for the curve like the Royals were the past couple of years. Being consistent in his approach holds more value to me than the type of players he is targeting and where they rank in prospect lists.