Lind to Mariners for 3 lower level RHP prospects (Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, Freddy Peralta)

[Funketown]

I'm not sure I see how Lind would carry all that much excess value in the trade market. His last 5 fWAR's have been {0.2, -0.1, 1.6, 1.5, 2.2}. It seems more reasonable to project him as league-average player given his platoon issues and low position value. At $8 million, I just can't imagine he has much value on the trade market unless I'm missing something.

 

I know very little about these prospects (seems to be a theme) but their K/BB ratios all look very good last year in limited innings. Nothing to get overly excited about here, but hard for me to be too dismayed about losing an average player at Lind's salary.

[patrickgpe]

So far DS is making me miss the glory years of DM.

 

what do fans think would be a decent return for 1 year of K-Rod and Lind? GM's knew the brewers wanted to unload these 2 and didn't have to overpay for them. I am sure if there were better offers, Stearns would have taken it.

 

If the brewers decide to trade lucroy or segura, we will get a better idea of Stearns.

[Brewer Fever]

If the emphasis going forward is to match defense with pitch to contact, strike throwers, at least it will be a philosophical match. Unlike the prior regime's matching of high velocity guys that they hammered on to pitch down in the zone to try and force weak contact to induce ground balls to our don't give a crap defense.

 

That's a welcome change at least.

[Jenkins5]

I remember when people couldn't wrap their mind around non top-30 prospect Yhonaton Barrios. Some AA guy no one ever heard who was a SS with big fastball and nothing else.....now he may be a important part of our bullpen as early as this year.

 

I trust our scouting staff more than Mayo and the rest. I am underwhelmed like most however, Zack Minasian has really been proving himself and has shown he knows what he is doing. If truly that many teams were in on Lind and this was the offer they were excited about....I am willing to see how it plays out

[DocLuna7]

I think that some people severely overrated Lind's value. I also think that Lind could have been much more valuable at the deadline when contending teams are desparate.

[BrewersAA]

 

^^This^^

 

GMs in football have been fired over good draft picks... because they take a guy in the first or second round, because they know hes first or second round quality, and thats great, but not when you could have gotten him in the 4th or 5th round. now in the 4th and 5th round there is no more 1st and 2nd round talent to take, because you sacrificed the value of the other picks already.

 

They call it 'smartest guy in the room' syndrome. this move really feels like that.

I don't see any support for this. It assumes so much that we just don't know. It's just as likely -- more likely, if we assume people behave rationally -- that Stearns had a lot of information on a lot of players and used it to go out and get what his information told him was the best return available.

 

Trying to be smarter than you are is indeed a bad thing. But actually being smart is a very good thing. I don't see how you guys have enough information to presume that Stearns was trying to be smarter than he is. That's a huge leap.

 

Sorry, i am calming down and can maybe type a little more clear. What i am saying is that he IS the smartest man in the room, but that can be a detriment.

 

A guy like Marcos Diplan was considered a 'lottery ticket' add on (3rd and worst player included) to the gallardo trade. hes VERY comparable to all three of these guys in every aspect of how they were scouted and signed, experience and exposure lever, everything. He is ranked by ever single service and compilation of scouting data several hundred players better than any of these three. Does that add any perspective to what VALUE sterns brought back?

[And That]

I think that some people severely overrated Lind's value. I also think that Lind could have been much more valuable at the deadline when contending teams are desparate.

That very well may be the case, but that also banks on Lind being healthy between now and the end of July. Which was mostly the case last season, but last season is the outlier. A bird in the hand...

[MrTPlush]

I think what a lot of people don't like is that Stearns is not doing the typical run of the mill stuff a GM would do in these situations.

 

To be honest I am OK with scratching my head because hopefully that means Stearns is trying to get ahead of times and not planning to win in the future with the current model. Too many teams are getting stuck trying to win by the ways of yesteryear.

[BrewersAA]

So far DS is making me miss the glory years of DM.

 

what do fans think would be a decent return for 1 year of K-Rod and Lind? GM's knew the brewers wanted to unload these 2 and didn't have to overpay for them. I am sure if there were better offers, Stearns would have taken it.

 

If the brewers decide to trade lucroy or segura, we will get a better idea of Stearns.

 

i thought the KRod trade was excellent because Detroit also took his whole salary, that trade was a homerun IMO... This one is like watching rickie weeks try to hit the slider away.

[StearnsFTW]

When you're trading your only proven 1st baseman and re-opening that glaring hole for 3 teenagers, what's the point of hanging on to Lucroy? He's gotta be as good as gone, right? The comments by Stearns have to be lip service to keep demand built up.

 

Look at it this way. There is more than enough salary room to bring Prince Fielder back. Maybe they'll make a run at Chris Davis now and corner the market on them.

 

I know I'm dreaming but it's a lot better than reality.

 

My God, what a horrifying thought that is.

 

I guess we're reversed on this, as I had the same thought you did in your previous post about what to do for evenings in April. Only I had it 4 years ago. Now I can watch a team that isn't hell-bent on winning 85 games for no real reason. Thank God.

[FVBrewerFan]

Carlos Luna. Not anywhere close to sniffing the Brewers top 30, and wouldn't make the list even if the system was weaker. Under the radar in the DSL with great numbers and a live arm. I think that's what we have with these 3 young arms, two of them at least.

 

I would think (hope) Brewers scouts know 100 times more about these guys than any of us do. Some sort of mythical top 30 really doesn't mean anything at all- especially when you're talking about players this young.

[sveumrules]

Anyone disappointed with the return is WAY overvaluing Adam Lind here. This is a guy who should rarely see the field at 1B or face a LHP in order to keep him on the field and maximize his production.

 

His wRC+ of 119 ranked 47th in MLB last year among qualifiers and 18th among 1B/DH. Sure he is a relative bargain at 8 million but even if you project him at 2 WAR next year (he's at 2.2, 1.9. 1.6 the last 3 years) that only leaves about 8 million in surplus value. According to the most recent studies hitters in the back end of the top 100 prospects have an average surplus value of 11.6 million with pitchers in the back end of the top 100 coming in at 9.6 million. Lind also is not a good candidate for the qualifying offer as he is very likely to accept.

[MKE81]

I can't imagine this data is available, but what is the % of international MLB players that were at one point "unranked" in their respective farm systems at age 17, 18, or 19?

 

Exactly. I'm pretty sure nobody heard of Orlando Arcia when he was a 16 year old playing the DSL, unless you were reading the DSL box scores and the Minor League forum. This is a very knowledgeable board and I would say many, if not the majority, of posters on this board were not even aware of him at that time.

 

But is it really? All I read are proposals that over-inflate the value of the Brewers players. This board "believes" they're knowledgeable. There wasn't one person that posted a response even remotely close to the return in this Lind trade. EVERY proposal was for their top tiered younger pitchers or higher level position players. The LARGE majority of comments since this trade all cry about how this was horrendous. They do so because they don't have a clue how to value players correctly nor how to evaluate talent they seek nor how a successful small/mid market team rebuilds top down. They can't find any scouting info on these three players so it's automatically a horrendous trade because they can't drool over a "scouting report", "projection", "top prospects" lists, etc while simply citing Lind was a 3 WAR player so we should have solely landed known commodities in return. I'm not saying I'm the opposite of this but I'm not going to complain when I know extremely little about these players. I'm still learning how Stearns is operating and what his mind set is (ie how he's going about rebuilding this entire organization). If Stearns trades Khris Davis, which he absolutely should, I can't wait to read those responses when some of you find out his actual worth. A guy some people here speak highly of when he's had 3 productive months offensively the past 2 years (mind you with a 265/330 line as well) while having an absolutely horrendous arm allowing runners to take advantage and move 1st to 3rd on balls hit right at him

[Crash2303]

#Brewers officially announce the trade of Adam Lind to the Seattler #Mariners for RHPs Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, and Freddy Peralta.

 

Oh.......

Don't know any of them, but I am happy to have them in the system. This is really buying a lottery ticket, but I'm okay with that.

 

actually three lottery tickets. but a lottery ticket's worth is dependent on how big the jackpot is and how good the odds are of winning. From what I've read so far of the scouting reports, it looks like the jackpot (their ceiling) isn't exactly the powerball and the fact that they're so far away from the majors, are pretty long odds of getting that winning ticket, much less three. but, who knows, hopefully see them all in 2022 in blue and yellow.

[Crash2303]

also- where do you all rank these three guys now in our system?

[BrewersAA]

I think what a lot of people don't like is that Stearns is not doing the typical run of the mill stuff a GM would do in these situations.

 

To be honest I am OK with scratching my head because hopefully that means Stearns is trying to get ahead of times and not planning to win in the future with the current model. Too many teams are getting stuck trying to win by the ways of yesteryear.

 

My disdain for this trade has nothing to do with winning. Milwaukee is the smallest market in all of baseball. Trading vets for years of controllable assets is the name of the game; and melvin was not great at it. the problem i have is when you trade that vet, or guy thats paid (vet is relative), the years of control you trade for must have equal VALUE. because there will come a point when you need to trade out of depth to add the piece you need, something that oakland (and wherever Epstein is) is always so good at. so you cant take value and turn it into nothing, this isnt houston, you cant afford it. if you had to trade these guys what would you get? and the answer is nothing. thats why the Gallardo trade was one of melvins best. the top player coming back was sardinas, who played the same position as our incumbent best prospect, but he had value, so you could trade him for a different piece. neither of these three offer that.

[bill hAll Star]

So far DS is making me miss the glory years of DM.

 

what do fans think would be a decent return for 1 year of K-Rod and Lind? GM's knew the brewers wanted to unload these 2 and didn't have to overpay for them. I am sure if there were better offers, Stearns would have taken it.

 

If the brewers decide to trade lucroy or segura, we will get a better idea of Stearns.

 

i thought the KRod trade was excellent because Detroit also took his whole salary, that trade was a homerun IMO... This one is like watching rickie weeks try to hit the slider away.

 

Home run trade: When a team takes a mid-30s decent, mostly healthy, .5-1 WAR reliever due $7.5 million and could then be bought out for $2 million (or kept for $6) in 2017. For clarity, K-Rod was guaranteed $9.5 million.

 

Rickie Weeks strikeout trade: When a team takes a mid-30s, decent, injury prone 1-1.5 WAR DH due $8 million for 3 lottery ticket prospects.

[bill hAll Star]

I think what a lot of people don't like is that Stearns is not doing the typical run of the mill stuff a GM would do in these situations.

 

To be honest I am OK with scratching my head because hopefully that means Stearns is trying to get ahead of times and not planning to win in the future with the current model. Too many teams are getting stuck trying to win by the ways of yesteryear.

 

My disdain for this trade has nothing to do with winning. Milwaukee is the smallest market in all of baseball. Trading vets for years of controllable assets is the name of the game; and melvin was not great at it. the problem i have is when you trade that vet, or guy thats paid (vet is relative), the years of control you trade for must have equal VALUE. because there will come a point when you need to trade out of depth to add the piece you need, something that oakland (and wherever Epstein is) is always so good at. so you cant take value and turn it into nothing, this isnt houston, you cant afford it. if you had to trade these guys what would you get? and the answer is nothing. thats why the Gallardo trade was one of melvins best. the top player coming back was sardinas, who played the same position as our incumbent best prospect, but he had value, so you could trade him for a different piece. neither of these three offer that.

 

Really? Gallardo for a guy with a ceiling of utility player now? You're calling that Melvin's best?

 

I know nothing about these 3 prospects and fully know there is about a 10% chance at best of MLB success and I'd take this package of players over Luis Sardinas.

[Bombers]

3 young talented pitching prospects for 1 season of a good MLB 1B who is often injured and needs to be platooned?! This was a great trade

 

Very very good to continue rebuilding the farm with young pitching.

Agreed. Wily Peralta was 19 at the end of the 2008 season. BF.net had him ranked 30th

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewPower50.do?power50Id=89

 

So to me, it's hard to say this is a horrible trade. We traded K-rod for the Orioles 5th best prospect and he flopped quickly. So for me, I am fine with the trade. Stearns has my trust

[Jenkins5]

Lind, Segura, Gennett I am perfectly fine with us mining for talent. Khris Davis, Will Smith, Peralta, have better markets and I'd hope we'd get at least one piece back.

 

Lucroy, you steal everything a system is humanly possible to give up. I'd be pretty upset if we don't get a couple future all-star potential type guys. Gomez deal brought us 3 guys who all seem like they at least have ceiling to get to that level. Hader if not as a starter, as a closer. Santana profiles like a Hart who will be borderline All-Star. Phillips has potential to be an All-Star every season

[MrTPlush]

The Gallardo trade is a great example of why this trade isn't any worse or better right now.

 

The Gallardo trade we took the known commodity and he ended up being a total flop. We could have done something very similar with DJ Peterson and have the same dang outcome.

[BrewersAA]

So far DS is making me miss the glory years of DM.

 

what do fans think would be a decent return for 1 year of K-Rod and Lind? GM's knew the brewers wanted to unload these 2 and didn't have to overpay for them. I am sure if there were better offers, Stearns would have taken it.

 

If the brewers decide to trade lucroy or segura, we will get a better idea of Stearns.

 

i thought the KRod trade was excellent because Detroit also took his whole salary, that trade was a homerun IMO... This one is like watching rickie weeks try to hit the slider away.

 

Home run trade: When a team takes a mid-30s decent, mostly healthy, .5-1 WAR reliever due $7.5 million and could then be bought out for $2 million (or kept for $6) in 2017. For clarity, K-Rod was guaranteed $9.5 million.

 

Rickie Weeks strikeout trade: When a team takes a mid-30s, decent, injury prone 1-1.5 WAR DH due $8 million for 3 lottery ticket prospects.

 

----------------------------

 

Fangraphs has an interesting analytic KATOH that is not perfect but it predicts a players WAR through their age 28 season and Javier Betancourt is the 57th best prospect in baseball at 5.4 WAR (Orlando Arcia is #5 at 14.5 WAR). so yes, turning 1.5 war @10 million (with declining stuff) into 5.4 (or less or more) at league minimum is a HOMERUN of a trade for a rebuilding club.

 

Lind is younger and cheaper by 2 million and worth 3 WAR at a position that lacks depth in the market.... when the return is 3 guys that have no value, yes, that is a strikeout. They may develop some value, hopefully, but thats a HUGE RISK for a team in baseballs smallest market that cannot just buy value like other teams. Every win is value for this organization.

[sveumrules]

A guy some people here speak highly of when he's had 3 productive months offensively the past 2 years (mind you with a 265/330 line as well) while having an absolutely horrendous arm allowing runners to take advantage and move 1st to 3rd on balls hit right at him

 

Davis has had monthly OPS splits of 1.035, .852, .683, .914, .799, .734, .758, .579, .699, .865, .620, .867 & .937 since he started playing regularly. With the average LF producing an OPS around .719-.730 the last three seasons I'd say that's 6 good months, 3 better than average months and 4 below average months.

 

Sure, his arm is bad. We all know this, but his range and fielding are just fine which brings him up to slightly below average overall in the field (-6 UZR, -3 DRS) over the last three years.

[BrewersAA]

The Gallardo trade is a great example of why this trade isn't any worse or better right now.

 

The Gallardo trade we took the known commodity and he ended up being a total flop. We could have done something very similar with DJ Peterson and have the same dang outcome.

 

i dont know that you can say he flopped in the few ABs he had, but he STILL had value, and because another play for our system. thats the point, he was still an asset, on top of knebel and Diplan. none of these three can be flipped for anything because they dont have value.

[trwi7]

Fangraphs has an interesting analytic KATOH that is not perfect

 

That's putting it kindly.