Lind to Mariners for 3 lower level RHP prospects (Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, Freddy Peralta)

[And That]

but you could have traded brent suter for them

That is exceptionally unlikely.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm mixed on the trade, but a few thoughts:

 

1) Many people didn't like that we got Adam Lind for Marco Estrada, but wanted prospects. And that was a DM trade...

2) Guys that start in the DSL are rarely ranked very high on a top 30.

3) I'm hoping this isn't a case of DS being too in love with his scouting.

4) Kind of odd that all three are LA signs...

5) I did expect a little higher level, but flawed return (Peterson, Bundy). But I think it was foolish to think we were going to get multiple top 10 selections back.

 

Be it as it may, these are the three we have, so lets see how good our GM really is...

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

From a friend of mine from another system who has scouted some of the Mariners system...3 of their better young pitchers. Herrera and Missaki the better of the 3. Peralta has good arm and needs a breaking ball. Missaki already had TJ, could be best of the lot. Their group had looked at all 3.

[bill hAll Star]

I can't imagine this data is available, but what is the % of international MLB players that were at one point "unranked" in their respective farm systems at age 17, 18, or 19?

 

I liken this to getting some 2-star recruits that started playing football late in HS or something. I am not claiming to have any clue as to whether or not they'll ever make the MLB, but I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt here.

 

There's a strong chance that they trade for a guy ranked #7 in someone's system that has the ceiling of a AAAA player. We weren't getting Swanson or something like that for Lind.

[trwi7]

You are right. But neither ranks as top 30 guys for a very bad Mariner farm system. To call that alarming is an understatement.

 

You're taking that list way too seriously. In the Brewers farm system they have Kyle Wren ranked above Cody Ponce.

[Jirsch]

I feel like there are a lot of people jumping off of the roof here. Maybe I'm all alone in thinking, but I never expected any kind of huge return for Lind. I sort of expected a "stock the farm" return. Maybe not three teenage pitchers, but definitely not a top 10 prospect. I get Lind is a 3 WAR guy, but he is also still very injury prone and on a one year contract. Young pitching, all with high SO rates and low WHIP doesn't sound too bad to me. Also, I'm not an international or low level scout and would never pretend to be. I'm going to trust that department for now, and see how this all pans out.

[MrTPlush]

We just got three solid potential pitchers. Some of which could be nice relievers or solid rotation pieces. Things that are incredibly expensive to get these days.

 

Maybe Stearns preferred three guys with solid ceilings instead a DJ Peterson who was garbage at AA and had the ceiling of maybe an average first baseman and maaaaaaybe something a little more than that.

 

So by dipping into the low minors we got three lottery tickets instead of one who is just closer to the majors. These guys aren't on any top prospect lists because they are so young and don't have much experience. That is how the majority of international signings will start out. Four years ago I bet you didn't know who Orlando Arcia was and probably wouldn't have shed one tear if we traded him for an Adam Lind. How about now?

[BrewBalls]

This is a trade you'd expect for Scooter or maybe Segura, not Lind.

 

I might be putting too much stock in the top 30 and I certainly have never seen this guys, but its really hard to get excited by our offseason so far..........

Top 30 is usually more about potential than actual production until you get to the upper levels. Undrafted players who are signed at 16 are considered to raw to project hence are usually left off top prospect lists (i.e. Lara was not considered a top prospect in our system after he was signed. He only made the list after he proved he could produce in the minors). Thier above average command and ability to miss bats at a high clip compounded with their age makes them lottery tickets like others have stated. My guess would be sabermetrics and advanced stats shows a trend of these types of pitchers having a better success rate than those with good stuff but minimal control (i.e. Hellweg).

[BrewersAA]

If you wanted an, "analytics guy', if you wanted a, "young mind", you have to understand the deal you're making.

 

A new guy, with a different approach isn't going to stick to conventional wisdom, or what some ranking system on a website told him to do, he's going to develop his own plan and go for it.

 

Stearns may bomb for all we know, but there's no track record to judge him by yet. How many of his deals have bombed for the Brewers so far? How many have not?

 

Sure, we don't know how things will turn out, but one has to wonder if Stearns was trying to be too clever.

 

^^This^^

 

GMs in football have been fired over good draft picks... because they take a guy in the first or second round, because they know hes first or second round quality, and thats great, but not when you could have gotten him in the 4th or 5th round. now in the 4th and 5th round there is no more 1st and 2nd round talent to take, because you sacrificed the value of the other picks already.

 

They call it 'smartest guy in the room' syndrome. this move really feels like that.

[bill hAll Star]

I feel like there are a lot of people jumping off of the roof here. Maybe I'm all alone in thinking, but I never expected any kind do huge return for Lind. I sort of expected a "stock the farm" return. Maybe not three teenage pitchers, but definitely not a top 10 prospect. I get Lind is a 3 WAR guy, but he is also still very injury prone and on a one year contract. Young pitching, all with high SO rates and low WHIP doesn't sound too bad to me. Also, I'm not an international or low level scout and would never pretend to be. I'm going to trust that department for now, and see how this all pans out.

 

I agree with your post, but people should stop posting the 3 WAR thing that you are responding to. Lind was once a 3 WAR guy, but with his poor defense/fact that he has to play DH/injury history factored in, he's been basically a 1.5 WAR guy every year of his career. According to Fangraphs, he hit 3 WAR once - in 2009.

[And That]

You're taking that list way too seriously. In the Brewers farm system they have Kyle Wren ranked above Cody Ponce.

Exactly. The MLB Pipeline top 30 rankings are about as far from the be-all end-all as possible. I'm more interested to hear what BA thinks about it when they update their Trade Central with the transaction.

[trwi7]

Here's what BA has to say.

 

Herrera carries plenty of projection, but as a 17-year-old with one season in the Dominican Summer League he has a long way to go. A skinny 6-foot-3, 170-pounder, Herrera has a promising high-80s-to-low-90s fastball and has shown the ability to spin a curveball.

 

Missaki was the youngest player in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. He is Japanese-Brazilian and pitched for Brazil as a 16-year-old and made his lone appearance during a key situation, getting Chinese right fielder Yanyong Yang to ground out to first base after coming into the eighth inning with two outs and the bases loaded and Brazil trailing 5-2. Missaki is an excellent strike-thrower but he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2015 season. Pre-injury, he had no truly plus pitch but he excelled thanks to the ability to locate four pitches in and just off the strike zone. He mixes an 87-91 mph fastball and a changeup, splitter and slider that projected as fringe average to average offerings. He also likes to cut his fastball to give hitters a further different look.

 

Peralta signed with the Mariners in 2013 for $137,000. He’s always been an impressive strike-thrower with a feel for setting up hitters, but his fastball velocity regressed this year as he was once again 88-90 after touching 94 mph in 2014. He uses the entire plate and locates well, but he needs his velocity to pick back up and he still has to sharpen his slider. His changeup currently shows more promise than the slider.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/trade-central-mariners-get-lind-brewers/

[MrTPlush]

If you wanted an, "analytics guy', if you wanted a, "young mind", you have to understand the deal you're making.

 

A new guy, with a different approach isn't going to stick to conventional wisdom, or what some ranking system on a website told him to do, he's going to develop his own plan and go for it.

 

Stearns may bomb for all we know, but there's no track record to judge him by yet. How many of his deals have bombed for the Brewers so far? How many have not?

 

Sure, we don't know how things will turn out, but one has to wonder if Stearns was trying to be too clever.

 

^^This^^

 

GMs in football have been fired over good draft picks... because they take a guy in the first or second round, because they know hes first or second round quality, and thats great, but not when you could have gotten him in the 4th or 5th round. now in the 4th and 5th round there is no more 1st and 2nd round talent to take, because you sacrificed the value of the other picks already.

 

They call it 'smartest guy in the room' syndrome. this move really feels like that.

 

That doesn't make sense. In the draft you get another shot at that player. This is a trade...Lind was the only way to get those three players so if we thought they were good we had to do it now.

[bill hAll Star]

If you wanted an, "analytics guy', if you wanted a, "young mind", you have to understand the deal you're making.

 

A new guy, with a different approach isn't going to stick to conventional wisdom, or what some ranking system on a website told him to do, he's going to develop his own plan and go for it.

 

Stearns may bomb for all we know, but there's no track record to judge him by yet. How many of his deals have bombed for the Brewers so far? How many have not?

 

Sure, we don't know how things will turn out, but one has to wonder if Stearns was trying to be too clever.

 

^^This^^

 

GMs in football have been fired over good draft picks... because they take a guy in the first or second round, because they know hes first or second round quality, and thats great, but not when you could have gotten him in the 4th or 5th round. now in the 4th and 5th round there is no more 1st and 2nd round talent to take, because you sacrificed the value of the other picks already.

 

They call it 'smartest guy in the room' syndrome. this move really feels like that.

 

We don't really have the credentials on an internet message board to call somebody the "smartest man in the room." Someone will probably discount this due to some recent hiccups, but Ted Thompson was knocked for this forever. Many casual fans hated the Rodgers pick (we already had Favre) as well as Jennings (4th+ round talent!), Nick Collins (wait until later in the draft!), etc.

 

Just let it play out. Even if these 3 flame out, there is no guarantee that the 1 middling prospect we likely could have gotten ranked as the O's #8 prospect or something (just an example) could have just as easily petered out in AAA.

[StearnsFTW]

This is a trade you'd expect for Scooter or maybe Segura, not Lind.

 

I might be putting too much stock in the top 30 and I certainly have never seen this guys, but its really hard to get excited by our offseason so far..........

 

I find it incredibly easy to get excited. I'd much rather have a lottery ticket than 4A type players. If Stearns does it right, we aren't winning anything this year or next year anyway.

 

What I don't want is a bunch of 82 win season, personally.

[gregmag]

If you wanted an, "analytics guy', if you wanted a, "young mind", you have to understand the deal you're making.

 

A new guy, with a different approach isn't going to stick to conventional wisdom, or what some ranking system on a website told him to do, he's going to develop his own plan and go for it.

 

Stearns may bomb for all we know, but there's no track record to judge him by yet. How many of his deals have bombed for the Brewers so far? How many have not?

 

Sure, we don't know how things will turn out, but one has to wonder if Stearns was trying to be too clever.

 

^^This^^

 

GMs in football have been fired over good draft picks... because they take a guy in the first or second round, because they know hes first or second round quality, and thats great, but not when you could have gotten him in the 4th or 5th round. now in the 4th and 5th round there is no more 1st and 2nd round talent to take, because you sacrificed the value of the other picks already.

 

They call it 'smartest guy in the room' syndrome. this move really feels like that.

I don't see any support for this. It assumes so much that we just don't know. It's just as likely -- more likely, if we assume people behave rationally -- that Stearns had a lot of information on a lot of players and used it to go out and get what his information told him was the best return available.

 

Trying to be smarter than you are is indeed a bad thing. But actually being smart is a very good thing. I don't see how you guys have enough information to presume that Stearns was trying to be smarter than he is. That's a huge leap.

[Raw Biz]

I can't imagine this data is available, but what is the % of international MLB players that were at one point "unranked" in their respective farm systems at age 17, 18, or 19?

 

Exactly. I'm pretty sure nobody heard of Orlando Arcia when he was a 16 year old playing the DSL, unless you were reading the DSL box scores and the Minor League forum. This is a very knowledgeable board and I would say many, if not the majority, of posters on this board were not even aware of him at that time.

[brewcrewdue80]

Herrera is the obvious drool on headliner in this deal. 6'3" at age of 17. Guy may still grow to 6-4 to 6-8 wouldn't surprise me. Pretty solid he has 80IP in the League he was in. At 17 you could expect a rise to 110 in the next year. 140 the year after and be in the 170s by age 19/20.

 

The other 2, I'm not going to lay a lot on. Age 19 and low ranking doesn't give much hope to turn in to something truly meaningful. You'd expect at 19 to have some status of potential vs being rather unknown.

 

Herrera is a 2years to 3 years away to determine this trade's success. At this point it's going to be a big letdown.

[superfly]

Feels like what the Twins do...sign strike throwing low velocity pitchers. That works out well for them.

[CheezWizHed]

because they take a guy in the first or second round, because they know hes first or second round quality, and thats great, but not when you could have gotten him in the 4th or 5th round.

 

This line of discussion for the NFL has ALWAYS irked me. No one knows if a player will drop to round X, because he never got the chance. You hear this because people that aren't NFL GMs (Kiper, newspaper writers, etc..) make up lists. But we never actually know what the actual scouts or GMs put on them for a grade. So saying Player X would have been available 2 rounds later is absurd thinking.

 

Ok, back to baseball. If DS is going to stretch his scouting prowess and gamble on the return of Lind, I'm ok with that. I hope he doesn't gamble with Lucroy, however.

[MrTPlush]

On the bright side we just indirectly traded Marco Estrada for three young pitchers. Job well done at the end of the day.

[And That]

Also on the bright side... the team just got worse next year. Better draft pick in 2017.

[MrTPlush]

I think Freddy Peralta is considered the best of the three to be honest followed by Herrera then Missaki.

[trwi7]

Arcia was ranked as the Brewers 22nd best prospect by BA after the 2011 after he hit .294/.386/.459 as a 16 year old in the DSL.

 

He jumped up to 17 after the 2012 season despite being injured.

 

He jumped to 7th after the 2013 season after hitting .251/.314/.333 at Wisconsin

 

He jumped to 2nd for the Brewers and #94 overall after hitting .289/.346/.389 at Brevard County.

 

Now, I think every publication agrees that he's a top 15 prospect in all of baseball.

 

And remember, this is all with a much worse farm system than what the Brewers currently have. You put a 16 year old Arcia in this system and I'm not sure he cracks the top 30 either.

 

They may say otherwise but prospects are downgraded if they're in the lower levels unless they're a top pick like Swanson or a guy that's so far above and beyond everyone else that they have no choice but to rank him highly, like Trout.

 

It's understandable because there's so much that can happen between rookie ball or even Class A and the majors but that doesn't mean there aren't any good prospects. It's probably even worse for international guys since I'm guessing very few people get to see them so they're relying on second hand reports from a few scouts, so if they catch a guy on a bad day, the report won't be glowing and they'll just be forgotten about until they get to America or another scout gives them a different report.

[502 to Right]

I'm more than happy to give David Stern the benefit of the doubt there. I'm pretty sure he knows the value of Adam Lind better than me (or any of the posters on this board).