Lind to Mariners for 3 lower level RHP prospects (Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, Freddy Peralta)

[MrTPlush]

all three were undrafted free agents. meaning all 30 teams passed on all 3 40(!!!) times. Sure there is some upside, but its just incredibly LOW return for an affordable 280/20/85 Left-handed hitting MLB firstbaseman. EXTREMELY LOW return. Its like hes purposely passed up on better value to be the 'smartest man in the room' and thats proven to never be a good strategy.

 

the best way i could put this trade is that if the brewers put these three guys together and called all 29 other teams and asked "how will you give me for them" they couldnt even get a big-leaguer maybe not even a fringe top 20 prospect nontheless. adam lind should have brought back a top 10 in a good system top 5 in a system like seattles plus 1 or 2 or even all 3 of these guys.

 

I believe they were all international signings. Herrera and Missaki were for sure.

 

Yeah...Missaki is from Brazil(signed for $880,000) and the other two are from the DR.

[Boomer5]

all three were undrafted free agents. meaning all 30 teams passed on all 3 40(!!!) times. Sure there is some upside, but its just incredibly LOW return for an affordable 280/20/85 Left-handed hitting MLB firstbaseman. EXTREMELY LOW return. Its like hes purposely passed up on better value to be the 'smartest man in the room' and thats proven to never be a good strategy.

 

the best way i could put this trade is that if the brewers put these three guys together and called all 29 other teams and asked "how will you give me for them" they couldnt even get a big-leaguer maybe not even a fringe top 20 prospect nontheless. adam lind should have brought back a top 10 in a good system top 5 in a system like seattles plus 1 or 2 or even all 3 of these guys.

 

Well neither of us have seen these guys pitch but right now these arms look more like organizational depth and dont even fit the prospect label now.

 

For a 3 WAR player at $8M that is an really poor use of an asset. 1B is a position of need, so it should have been a sellers market???

 

Im thinking I dont want DS trading Lucroy now.

[gregmag]

Preseason squib on Peralta from Fangraphs: "RHP Freddy Peralta (only 5’11 and right-handed isn’t a good start, but he’s up to 94 mph with a clean arm action and delivery with a chance to start)."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-seattle-mariners/

 

It's hard to find info on these guys. Maybe perversely, I kind of like that. Brewer Fever's comment above is spot on: "pure scouting trade." Minasian and crew are out scouring the minors for good value talent. Early returns on Houser, Barrios, and Collymore are encouraging. I'm happy to give our scouts the benefit of the doubt

[And That]

all three were undrafted free agents. meaning all 30 teams passed on all 3 40(!!!) times.

That is entirely incorrect. I am 99% sure that they were all international free agents not subject to the draft.

[Mudville9]

Wow...while I'm willing to trust Stearns on this and I realize that Lind is not an All-Star or anything, but I would think we could get a couple Top 30 guys for him. I get that we need to stock the system a bit, but it would be nice to actually have an idea of who we are getting when the trade is made. Hoping we see these guys at Miller Park in 2021.

 

Have to admit, this makes me slightly more nervous to trade Luc....

[DocLuna7]

Awful.... just awful. I guess I didn't expect much back for Lind during the offseason but wow. We should have just held onto an affordable piece like Lind and dealt him at the deadline.

[3and2Fastball]

Missaki is just 19 and has put together 2 seasons of very low WHIP & high K/9 numbers

 

 

Very happy to have these young pitchers in our organization.

[Boomer5]

all three were undrafted free agents. meaning all 30 teams passed on all 3 40(!!!) times.

That is entirely incorrect. I am 99% sure that they were all international free agents not subject to the draft.

 

You are right. But neither ranks as top 30 guys for a very bad Mariner farm system. To call that alarming is an understatement.

 

I am liking Atlanta's GM a lot more than our guy.

[Brewer Fever]

When you're trading your only proven 1st baseman and re-opening that glaring hole for 3 teenagers, what's the point of hanging on to Lucroy? He's gotta be as good as gone, right? The comments by Stearns have to be lip service to keep demand built up.

[JohnBriggs12]

The return, if any, of this deal won't be known until 2022 or so. Odds are none of these guys has any impact but it's possible. It's a salary dump in the short term. Runs the projected payroll down to around $55 million, $12.5 of which is ticketed for Garza. I'm going to have to find something to do with my time during the evenings starting in April.

[Boomer5]

Missaki is just 19 and has put together 2 seasons of very low WHIP & high K/9 numbers

 

 

Very happy to have these young pitchers in our organization.

 

Nothing against these kids at all, and I am happy we have them, just NOT at the price of a 3 WAR guy with a cheap contract.

[JohnBriggs12]

When you're trading your only proven 1st baseman and re-opening that glaring hole for 3 teenagers, what's the point of hanging on to Lucroy? He's gotta be as good as gone, right? The comments by Stearns have to be lip service to keep demand built up.

 

Look at it this way. There is more than enough salary room to bring Prince Fielder back. Maybe they'll make a run at Chris Davis now and corner the market on them.

 

I know I'm dreaming but it's a lot better than reality.

[bill hAll Star]

all three were undrafted free agents. meaning all 30 teams passed on all 3 40(!!!) times.

That is entirely incorrect. I am 99% sure that they were all international free agents not subject to the draft.

 

You are right. But neither ranks as top 30 guys for a very bad Mariner farm system. To call that alarming is an understatement.

 

I am liking Atlanta's GM a lot more than our guy.

 

Sound analysis. 18 year old kids that don't have prototypical star talent may not make the top 30. Very hard to judge at that age, though, yes, we can assume that chances are none of these guys will be aces.

 

That said, we're probably fielding offers of guys that project to be Cody Asche or maybe a solid #4 starter type prospects. I think you've valued Lind a little too high, and the Brewers are choosing to trust their lower-level scouting to see if they can unearth a gem at a young age (3 bullets in the chamber instead of 1) or maybe just 2 productive MLB players.

[splitterpfj]

The only fair response I can give to this is, "I don't know", because until the trade was announced I'd never heard of any of the players Milwaukee got back.

 

With the tiny bit of information I've seen, they all appear to throw strikes ... ok, Sterns likes guys with command. That's a good thing, but what might the future hold for any of these three pitchers - I have no idea.

[bjkrautk]

Not a terrible return on Marco Estrada (circa 2014), but hard to get excited about players who are so far away from making a major league contribution.

[3and2Fastball]

Nothing against these kids at all, and I am happy we have them, just NOT at the price of a 3 WAR guy with a cheap contract.

 

One season of a 3 WAR guy who has been frequently injured and cannot hit LHP's? That isn't going to bring back Taijuan Walker.

[gregmag]

Another thought about this: Stearns isn't sticking to one kind of trade target. He's all over the map. Betancourt is 20, played at A+ (and we still have a PTBNL coming). Villar is a 24 year-old big leaguer. Flores is a 23 year-old big leaguer. Now we've gotten three teenage pitchers. He's trying to solidify talent up and down the system. That seems like a smart rebuilding strategy. Obviously what matters is how everyone pans out, but I like the approach so far.

[Fear The Chorizo]

since none of these prospects were ever draft eligible, teams did not pass on them in any amateur drafts. These guys were international signings, which is where organizations with quality international scouting programs excel at bringing in under the radar talent.

 

these type of international signings hardly ever show up in an organization's top 30 (assuming their system is worth a damn), because any recent draftees have much more information available on them until they pitch more than a short season in the minors.

 

if there was ever a trade that screams - "we're going for a full organizational rebuild, this year's MLB roster be damned", this is it. Obviously none of these prospects are even close to sniffing a 40 man roster spot, which helps keep flexibility to add more significant and advanced level prospects.

[gregmag]

BA note on Herrera signing from 2014:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/mariners-sign-dominican-pitcher-carlos-herrera/

 

Important not to confuse him with the Rockies' ss prospect of the same name.

[harrydalton]

A "roll the dice" (or "roll your eyes") deal. Two Dominicans and a Brazilian from Japan with a mending flipper.

 

Won't know if this was a clunker trade for several years.

[BrewersAA]

sorry, the article i read listed them as "non drafted free agents" not as "international signees"

 

regardless...

 

okay, heres some persepctive. I will name some top 30 prospects in the brewers system that are similar age, similar experience, similar signing type, similar amount of scouting data, all ranked 1000 or so players better than these 3.

 

orlando arcia

gilbert lara

Javier Betancourt

Marcos Diplan

Miguel Diaz

 

now, seattles system is much worse than ours so those 5 might all be top 10-15. these 3 guys are not even in their top 30! this trade was really really bad.

 

I am not saying that one of these guy wont catch lightening in a bottle, i hope they do, but you could have traded brent suter for them, not Adam Lind. its just really really really really bad value of return. and again, the best way i can articulate that is that the brewer can not trade these guys for a bag of peanuts, they are virtually worthless. Again, im not saying that sterns doesnt know something that every scout in baseball doesnt, and i hope he does, hopefully he has some secret metric literally nobody else has and all three of these guys grade out through the roof on it... but he took a valuable asset and turned it into nothing because these guys have no value.

[splitterpfj]

If you wanted an, "analytics guy', if you wanted a, "young mind", you have to understand the deal you're making.

 

A new guy, with a different approach isn't going to stick to conventional wisdom, or what some ranking system on a website told him to do, he's going to develop his own plan and go for it.

 

Stearns may bomb for all we know, but there's no track record to judge him by yet. How many of his deals have bombed for the Brewers so far? How many have not?

[Jenkins5]

all three were undrafted free agents. meaning all 30 teams passed on all 3 40(!!!) times.

That is entirely incorrect. I am 99% sure that they were all international free agents not subject to the draft.

 

I'll up that to 100%

[narwhalattack]

If you wanted an, "analytics guy', if you wanted a, "young mind", you have to understand the deal you're making.

 

A new guy, with a different approach isn't going to stick to conventional wisdom, or what some ranking system on a website told him to do, he's going to develop his own plan and go for it.

 

Stearns may bomb for all we know, but there's no track record to judge him by yet. How many of his deals have bombed for the Brewers so far? How many have not?

 

Sure, we don't know how things will turn out, but one has to wonder if Stearns was trying too hard to be clever.

[stalton]

If you wanted an, "analytics guy', if you wanted a, "young mind", you have to understand the deal you're making.

 

This is the crux of the discussion, I believe.