Lind to Mariners for 3 lower level RHP prospects (Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, Freddy Peralta)

[MrTPlush]

Think Peralta was 400k which for Brewers was a lot but really not too much when think what many bonus babies get. I'm talking the 1-4?million dollar ones. Lara gets 400k no one is talking about him for another year or 2

 

His bonus was pretty big for the time. He was considered a top prospect from the Dominican.

 

I think the problem is pitching prospects don't really get much love if they aren't highly touted in general while a hitter can get rave reviews for one tool.

[Eye Black]

I caution you not to conflate team scouting to media scouts. Each team has it's own list of other team's prospects and I doubt any two are the same. Much less the same as public media outlets rankings. But the main difference is probably how each entity looked at the specific players in question. Team scouts are often asked to look at specific players and assess them. Especially when they may be part of a trade. Media outlets set their rankings by going through the entire minor league system of every team and rank them. The most they get of any player is a snapshot of him. That probably goes double for players with limited exposure to the public eye. I think it's pretty obvious one way gives a much more comprehensive picture of a specific player than the other. I doubt for example Baseball America would have spent nearly as much time vetting each of these prospects as a scout for the Brewers did the past week or so. That is why I do not put much stock into their rankings at this point.

 

As far as their ceiling goes none of us know for sure what they are. If they had an easy to see high ceiling we wouldn't have been able to get them for Lind. But looking at their age, room to grow, strikeout and control abilities so far there is nothing that says they have low ceiling either. In other words you are correct that they don't necessarily have a high ceiling but that is not the same as saying they have low ones.

I think this post sums it up nicely, and I agree with the point about ceilings. None of us has enough information to determine the ceilings for these players. I don't even think the Brewers know for sure at this point, but I think they have a lot better idea about the players' ceilings than Jonathan Mayo or Keith Law. I tend to believe that no one has better information on these players than the teams. This isn't David Stearns looking up some analytical data and choosing guys that a computer spits out at him. This is a team effort of people that are very good at what they do with excellent scouting resources, and access to proprietary information and statistical data.

 

After the trade was made Stearns admitted there is a lot of variability when acquiring teenagers. But despite the wide range of possible outcomes, he expressed the goal was to find impact pitching. Personally that was music to my ears. If the goal of this trade was truly to have a chance at finding and developing an impact arm, then clearly the Brewers don't view these players as mere organizational filler. They must believe there is projection in these players, something to dream on, even if the odds to navigate the road to success isn't particularly high.

[Jenkins5]

Yeah Peralta was also an OF when he signed with the Brewers before switching over to the mound pretty quickly. Overall until these kids get into Wisconsin or BC, they won't be very high on the list due to pre performance hype....If Brewers signed Herrera out of Dominican for 1.5million he'd be top 15 in our system

[monty57]

Looking at the Brewers' top 30, they have two guys (Arcia and Phillips) who we hope will be perennial All Stars. We then could make a case for each of the remaining 28 that they could produce at the MLB level. That's good, but it puts us in a position where adding another guy in his early 20s in AA for whom a case could be made that he could produce at the MLB level isn't a necessity.

 

Lind was not going to bring us another Arcia or Phillips. Those guys come from trading guys like Gomez and Lucroy. Therefore, given the current state of the Brewer franchise, I like the thought of trading our lesser chips for young guys who have not yet developed enough to catch everyone's eye. It's riskier, but if one of these guys puts together a good season in full-season ball, there's no way we're getting him in trade for an average-ish guy like Lind.

 

As to the players we got, I like that they all have excellent command with room to add a few MPH on their fastball. It seems more likely to me that one or more of these guys will develop physically and retain their control than a guy with a big fastball and no command will suddenly learn to throw strikes.

[MNBrew]

I'm not sure how to feel about the 3 guys we got for Lind. But I'm definitely inclined to trust Stearns & the scouting staff and give them the benefit of the doubt and hope that at least 1 one alone if not 2 or all 3 each prove to be solid major leaguers, making the deal a win for the Brewers. I'll also root for Lind to have a kick-butt year in SEA, which would have no adverse consequences for MIL and would mean it could be a win-win for both teams.

[Jenkins5]

It seems liek a lot of people would have been more happy if it was Lind for Peterson or Lind for Peterson and a young arm. IMO with the Cecchini trade for nothing more than some cash considerations kind of give those people even more than they wanted back. Really now we have Cecchini AND 3 good young arms (don't want to hear they weren't top 30 prospects, its been discussed...Ponce is a top 10 quality prospect ranked 29 in our system...rankings don't mean anything)

 

Garin Cecchini is every bit the prospect DJ Peterson is. Exception is Peterson has more power, Cecchini has more speed, better defense, and is a is a little better OBP guy. Peterson struggled 2nd go around in AA badly, Cecchini had a bad 2nd go at triple A (First go around was okay with a .260 average, .340 OBP, and .715 OPS at 23 years old). They are only about a year apart. Both prior to awful 2015 seasons were top 100 prospects. (Cecchini highest was #73)

 

Cecchini was twice rated to have best hit tool in Boston system and rated with the best infield arm once. He was rated top infield arm in South Atlantic League as well. Since his debut he was a top 7-10 prospect in a system usually know for being fairly deep. An awful season happens so it is okay both were brutal in 2015 but I would take Cecchini and day over Peterson. Feel he is more advanced with his approach, ability to hit, his speed, and better defensive upside.

[rickh150]

Was this a salary dump? Maybe, because this trade could be done mid season for spare parts and lottery tickets.

Was it done to get a young or new first baseman some time in the majors? Probably, getting closer to the real reason.

Was it done, along with the K-Rod trade, to make the team worse, giving us a higher draft pick?? Ding ding ding..... STEP 1, in Houston, was prolonged tanking, remember.

 

Krod and Lind trades are very telling. For what we got back for K-Rod and Lind, I see little reason why Braun, Lucroy, Peralta, or half our bullpen will be Brewers a year from now...... Sterns is planning for 2020, not 2017. Dominos are just starting to fall.

[Jenkins5]

Really don't think they are playing for draft picks. In baseball picks may take 3-6 years to show any type of reward. KRod was traded because he has value, we have better cheaper options, & no need to spend 7 million a year on a closer for a non compting team.

 

Linds option was picked up for the purpose alone to trade him. Why spend 8 million a year on a guy who has no role in your future and has value?

 

Overall don't think these trades say anything at all.... KRod we got a 28 year old AAA catcher and what will be a AA 2B. Last time we traded KRod it was for an A+ prospect who flamed out nearly right away.... Not sure what you were hoping for?We got Lind for Estrado who we no longer wanted anything to do with... That was Linds value. maybe we could have netted a DJ Peterson type possible average role player, high floor, low ceiling guy.... Instead we got three young pitchers hoping at least 1 will hit eventually. Highly doubt DS said to his staff, we are going for 2020, only target guys who will be able to start to produce then. He got an offer that he thought had the best value to bring in not just a possible role player but a possible star player. He wants to infuse system with people they feel have the best ability to be breakout players without regard for how long they take.

 

Lucroy is the only telling trade. With Lucroy, you will get at least 1 top prospect from a team. You are not getting top flight prospects for Lind, KRod, Segura, and etc.... So you take a risk to get someone players who have lower floors that you think can become special over simply taking high floor, low ceiling players

[MrTPlush]

People really need to stop assuming we could have gotten the same type deal mid season. How do you know that? Lind is aging and is a major cripple. If I remember right Lind got back problems right before the deadline last year and hurt his value. You are a serious betting man if you want to risk Lind not getting hurt.

 

Also would you pay $4mil for the prospects we just got? No...so why would you spend $4mil on Lind this year and trade him for the same prospects at the deadline? In a way it is a salary dump because we saved at least $4mil just dumping him now which has value in itself.

[Jenkins5]

If DS has shown anything at all so far & from this trade is that they love versatility, OBP/working counts, High K/ Low BB pitchers with great feel for pitching, & he & his don't care how national scouts rate players. He is what people wanted & takes analytical approach to scouting so now we have that people like to complain. I fully trust what DS is doing and love it! Infuse the system with as much value as humanly possible.

 

Lind is overrated by posters here. He is a strict platoon player on a good team. Not much of a defensive guy. He is good but not this unbelievable guy who should have netted us multiple top prospects

 

When Herrera is sitting 93-96 K'ing over 1 an inning, not walking anyone, and is carving up each league on the way to being one of our top prospects & future #1 or #3 people will look back and be say man what a steal for Lind! So to complain now makes little sense to me. Then again I don't think Lind was the next Messiah like some who wanted kings ransom for him. Good trade, hope 1 makes it at least, if not, we don't lose any. His value wasn't going anywhere & Brewers picked up option just to trade him in 1st place. Lind even said Stearns never once even spoke to him or made any hint he was any part of this team going forward

[rickh150]

Have prospects ever been this overvalued? Maybe rightfully so considering the way salaries have increased. Yet, expected more for 2 guys that can help a contender, even if for just a year. Three teenagers??? Not hardly ranked in Mariners system?

[3and2Fastball]

Have prospects ever been this overvalued? Maybe rightfully so considering the way salaries have increased. Yet, expected more for 2 guys that can help a contender, even if for just a year. Three teenagers??? Not hardly ranked in Mariners system?

 

Adam Lind is an often injured 1B on the wrong side of age 30, with one year left in his contract, who cannot hit LHP at a MLB replacement level. The question would be better posed as: has Adam Lind ever been this overvalued?

 

The answer, unfortunately, is yes.

[Jenkins5]

As said 100 times, these teenagers are not ranked in the system because they are teenagers, international signings, and didn't not get bonus baby millions.

 

Mallen and Pierre both are talented, have ton of talent, ceiling, and signed for 800k yet are not in Top 30. If Lara received $100k instead of 3.2 million, he wouldn't be top 30 either regardless to ceiling. Draft position and bonuses are all that matter to national ranking sites.

[Eye Black]

I am NOT trying to predict the players involved in the Lind trade will become Johnny Cueto (they almost certainly will not), but thought this was a great example an unheralded international signee that didn't make any top prospect lists until after experiencing success at the A-ball level.

 

Cueto was signed in 2004 for a small signing bonus and pitched in the DSL. The following year, 2005, at age 19 he pitched in Rookie ball. The Reds had what was considered an awful system in 2005 yet heading into 2006 Cueto wasn't on any top prospect lists including John Sickels' Reds organization top 20 prospects and the Reds fan blog, Red's Reporter's organizational top 40 prospects. In 2006 a 20-year old Cueto was very good in A ball and went from nowhere to be considered a top 5 player in the Reds system following the season.

 

Some interesting retrospective accounts...

 

SOURCE: The Reds signed Johnny Cueto out of the Dominican Republic in March of 2004. The Reds paid a small sum for Cueto to sign, a mere $35,000. He was relatively unknown as a short right hander, but history would go to show that it isn’t always the big name and big dollar signings that make the biggest splash. At the time, the Reds were not players in the international market.

 

After signing in March, the Reds sent the 18-year-old right hander to the Dominican Summer League. Cueto performed quite well as he posted a 2.58 ERA in 76.2 innings with 26 walks and 69 strikeouts. The Dominican Summer League is notorious for pitchers walking a lot of guys, so Cueto’s low walk total was pretty strong for the league, though he was probably average-aged for the level of competition.

 

With a strong season behind him, the Reds were impressed enough to bring him stateside in 2005 where they sent him to the Gulf Coast League, the lowest rung in the US for minor leaguers. Cueto split his time between the bullpen and the rotation, making six starts and appearing out of the bullpen seven times. On the surface, Cueto seems to have struggled as he posted a 5.02 ERA in 43 innings, but he walked just 8 batters and struck out 38 while allowing just 2 home runs. He would also make two appearances for the Florida State League affiliate, who shared a complex with the Gulf Coast League team and over 6 innings he allowed 2 runs, 2 walks and 6 strikeouts. While he was overlooked in prospect rankings, likely due to his size and his relative unknown factor mixed in with a misleading ERA, he showed outstanding control for his age and a good strikeout rate.

 

The 2006 season was a breakout for Cueto. The Reds were impressed enough with the right hander to send him to Dayton to start for the Dragons at age 20. In the first half of the season he went 8-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 76.1 innings, allowing just 52 hits, 15 walks, 82 strikeouts and a 0.88 WHIP. Among his first half was a no-hitter. He was promoted to the Florida State League for the second half. His numbers took a bit of a step backwards with a 7-2 record to go along wit a 3.50 ERA in 61.2 innings. He allowed 48 hits, 23 walks and had 61 strikeouts. On the whole, he threw a career high 138 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 15-3 record with 38 walks and 143 strikeouts. The 20-year-old began turning heads and showed up on several Baseball America lists after the season. He was ranked as the 12th best prospect in the Midwest League and the 14th best prospect in the Florida State League after the season. I had ranked him as the 5th best prospect in the system following the season behind Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Travis Wood. Scouting reports on him indicated his fastball had good life at 92-96 MPH, a strong slider and a good change up. Scouts weren’t convinced that he could remain a starter though because of his size.

 

SOURCE:

 

...the scouts from other organizations were underwhelmed. Cueto didn't have the lanky and tall physique of the prototype pitcher.

 

...Johnny wasn't a big kid, but I could see that he had a wide back and fairly long arms, and the ball came out of his hand fairly easily," recalled Almaraz. "You knew he would throw harder when he got strong -- but even then, he was 90-91 on the gun and he threw strikes.

 

..."I was short and skinny --- the scouts from other organizations had rejected me," Cueto said.

 

SOURCE:

 

...But the kid they signed for $35,000 out of a hastily arranged tryout in the Dominican has turned into the ace. The kid who was too short - the kid who didn't throw that hard - turned out to better than them all.

 

...The Cueto the Reds signed in March of 2004 — a month after his 18th birthday — was a raw version of the current Cueto.

 

"He was very competitive," said Mack Jenkins, now the bullpen coach, then the minor-league pitching coordinator. "He was very excitable. He always threw strikes just like he does today. I don't think you ever predict 20-game winners. But I thought he'd be an impact player. To be honest, because of his size, I wasn't sure if it would be a starter or a closer type."

[pacopete4]

[Boomer5]

So far, Stearns looks like a very young GM who is learning on the job.

 

This team looked close to being a decent team by 2017, but that is clearly going to be pushed back towards 2020 or so based on the caliber and age of prospects we are accepting in trades.

 

This trade, along with KRod was a salary dump. Thats fine I suppose but lets not accept these kind of moves for Luc and Braun, who now is suddenly a very good trade chip with the JHey contract.

[pacopete4]

So far, Stearns looks like a very young GM who is learning on the job.

 

This team looked close to being a decent team by 2017, but that is clearly going to be pushed back towards 2020 or so based on the caliber and age of prospects we are accepting in trades.

 

This trade, along with KRod was a salary dump. Thats fine I suppose but lets not accept these kind of moves for Luc and Braun, who now is suddenly a very good trade chip with the JHey contract.

 

 

That is such a pity party statement it's unbelievable. So because in one trade we took a chance and rolled the dice with three 19 year olds (if you read the story about above Cueto, maybe it'll make you feel better?), all of a sudden we are not looking to compete until 2020?

[monty57]

This team looked close to being a decent team by 2017, but that is clearly going to be pushed back towards 2020 or so based on the caliber and age of prospects we are accepting in trades.

 

I think we can all agree that Lind was not going to be a Brewer in 2017, so he had to be traded... he wasn't a part of the "decent team in 2017." What we did with him really has little bearing on whether or not we will be "decent" in 2017.

 

Let's say we picked up a guy who is in AA who is more likely to make the majors than any of the three we received, but will likely be a bullpen arm or a utility guy (we weren't getting better than that for Lind). Sure, he could help the team in a limited role in a couple of years (assuming he makes it), but not any more than about 30 other prospects we already have who fit that bill. We certainly need a lot better guys than that in order to be "decent" in 2017.

 

Therefore, the return we received from Lind was not going to be a determinant in whether or not we will be "decent" in 2017. It could, however, make us much better a few years further down the road if any of the three guys we got put it all together and become better than a bullpen or utility guy.

 

What will help us be "decent" in 2017 are the trades of our good trading chips, and the development (or eventual trade) of the young guys we already have. We traded Gomez for a Santana, who has already showed something at the MLB level, Phillips, who has the potential to be a multi-time All Star, and some promising young pitching. I would expect something similar from a Lucroy trade.

 

For Lind, with the current state of the system, I'll gladly take multiple young guys with potential over one AA guy with a low ceiling. We have quite a few of those guys already. We got three teenagers who throw in the low 90's and have very good control. After years of going for either college "high floor/low ceiling" guys or flamethrowers who couldn't find the strike zone, I kind of like these pickups.

 

Note that most of the "sure thing," "high floor" guys we got didn't make it, so it's far from a sure thing that trading Lind for a more advanced prospect would net us anything. Any time you trade for a prospect, especially one that isn't "blue chip," which Lind wasn't bringing back, the odds of them making it are slim, so I like getting multiple guys over one more advanced (but still flawed) guy.

[1992casey]

Sterns is planning for 2020, not 2017.

 

I'd submit that he's planning for 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and maybe beyond that. To have a sustained run, you can't just zero in on one year. You hope to bring in new contributors every year.

 

Unless you're trying to fill a hole, it's probably best to go for the best "haul" available, regardless of level. Your return could be anywhere between the low minors and the major league team. In a year or two, it might become appropriate to trade to fill holes.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm not sure how to feel about the 3 guys we got for Lind. But I'm definitely inclined to trust Stearns & the scouting staff and give them the benefit of the doubt and hope that at least 1 one alone if not 2 or all 3 each prove to be solid major leaguers, making the deal a win for the Brewers. I'll also root for Lind to have a kick-butt year in SEA, which would have no adverse consequences for MIL and would mean it could be a win-win for both teams.

 

Stearns has no track record whatsoever so I'm not as inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and even if he did, targeting pitchers in their teens is a complete crapshoot beyond the very, very elite. If this deal never pays off it will be long forgotten, so there was literally no downside for Stearns as they've already conditioned the fan base not to expect to see competitive teams for the foreseeable future. That proves Stearns is clever enough to keep heat off himself but that's about it.

[Boomer5]

This team looked close to being a decent team by 2017, but that is clearly going to be pushed back towards 2020 or so based on the caliber and age of prospects we are accepting in trades.

 

I think we can all agree that Lind was not going to be a Brewer in 2017, so he had to be traded... he wasn't a part of the "decent team in 2017." What we did with him really has little bearing on whether or not we will be "decent" in 2017.

 

Let's say we picked up a guy who is in AA who is more likely to make the majors than any of the three we received, but will likely be a bullpen arm or a utility guy (we weren't getting better than that for Lind). Sure, he could help the team in a limited role in a couple of years (assuming he makes it), but not any more than about 30 other prospects we already have who fit that bill. We certainly need a lot better guys than that in order to be "decent" in 2017.

 

Therefore, the return we received from Lind was not going to be a determinant in whether or not we will be "decent" in 2017. It could, however, make us much better a few years further down the road if any of the three guys we got put it all together and become better than a bullpen or utility guy.

 

What will help us be "decent" in 2017 are the trades of our good trading chips, and the development (or eventual trade) of the young guys we already have. We traded Gomez for a Santana, who has already showed something at the MLB level, Phillips, who has the potential to be a multi-time All Star, and some promising young pitching. I would expect something similar from a Lucroy trade.

 

For Lind, with the current state of the system, I'll gladly take multiple young guys with potential over one AA guy with a low ceiling. We have quite a few of those guys already. We got three teenagers who throw in the low 90's and have very good control. After years of going for either college "high floor/low ceiling" guys or flamethrowers who couldn't find the strike zone, I kind of like these pickups.

 

Note that most of the "sure thing," "high floor" guys we got didn't make it, so it's far from a sure thing that trading Lind for a more advanced prospect would net us anything. Any time you trade for a prospect, especially one that isn't "blue chip," which Lind wasn't bringing back, the odds of them making it are slim, so I like getting multiple guys over one more advanced (but still flawed) guy.

 

Lind and KRod were not going to part of the teams next good team. We agree there. These trades weren't about putting together a competitive roster by 2017 though, they were pure salary dumps with the hopes that by 2019 or so we'd see something.

 

The Astros trade was about 2017, which is why were all excited about the future. It wasn't a month ago we were talking about a 3B candidate and a 1B and C to replace Lind and Luc in the trades. Now we are scouring the depths of google to find profiles on guys we just a legitimate asset for.

 

Stearns still has that new car smell so many are willing to give him a pass, but to me it looks like he is a rookie GM that has a 5 year plan.

[jerichoholicninja]

This team looked close to being a decent team by 2017, but that is clearly going to be pushed back towards 2020 or so based on the caliber and age of prospects we are accepting in trades.

 

Explain how the trades for Villar, Flores, Cecchini, and Pina are playing for 2020.

[Jenkins5]

This team looked close to being a decent team by 2017, but that is clearly going to be pushed back towards 2020 or so based on the caliber and age of prospects we are accepting in trades.

 

Explain how the trades for Villar, Flores, Cecchini, and Pina are playing for 2020.

 

Because Lind was suppose to get us a future All-Star in AAA not 3 teenagers.....so now our sole purpose due to one trade is we only care about 2020.... hopefully I don't need blue for that

 

Lind was not a salary dump at all. They picked up his option to trade him....if it was a salary dump they just wouldn't have picked up his option.

[monty57]

The Astros trade was about 2017, which is why were all excited about the future.

 

We traded the Astros a recent MVP candidate with multiple years of friendly team control, and a solid MLB pitcher who is cheap with lots of team control. Of course we should get back some studs for that. We still made that trade. The Lind deal does not negate it. We have the good prospects from trading away our better trade chips, and we now have more prospects from trading away lesser trade chips in Lind and K-Rod.

 

As I stated, we have a good deal of guys in the high minors who project to be role players. These guys have value, and will help the team in the next few years, but I like that instead of bolstering these ranks with another guy in the high minors who could become a role player, we rolled the dice on three young kids who have the chance at being special. And no, they are not the guys a team just spent $3M in signing bonus on... Lind is not netting that kind of return. Instead we got three guys with excellent control and the likelihood that they will add a few MPH as they grow into their 20's.

 

My favorite stats on pitchers are K:BB, K/9 and BB/9. That seems to be important to Stearns, so I like that. I think it's far more likely they will add a couple MPH over the next few years than it is for a guy with a big arm and no control to learn to throw strikes. Since everyone likes the guy with the big arm, I think Stearns may have found an "inefficiency" by targeting guys like this.

[Boomer5]

This team looked close to being a decent team by 2017, but that is clearly going to be pushed back towards 2020 or so based on the caliber and age of prospects we are accepting in trades.

 

Explain how the trades for Villar, Flores, Cecchini, and Pina are playing for 2020.

 

Come on. Those are just cheap guys to fill stop gap roles. Maybe I will buy Villar has some upside, but he is very much in the flyer category. Flores and Pina are role players at best. Cecchini was a cash deal, so you know what Boston thought of him. These are cheaper versions of Kotsay types with the hopes that we find a change of scenery success story. These are guys you'd see on an expansion team, so Im surprised anyone would classify them as legitimate assets.

 

No way any move Stearns has made this offseason so far making the MLB roster better. Im not saying that is a bad thing because the rebuild was necessary. Im just saying our 2017 dreams - even if they were unrealistic - have pretty much died this offseason.

 

I will be very interested to see what he brings back with Lucroy. So far he looks like a very young, inexperienced GM. Lucroy is a very valuable asset so the "Lind is worthless" mentality wont be valid in that trade.

 

Its not unreasonable to think we could have netted a Brandon Moss or Parra type return in a Lind trade.