Lind to Mariners for 3 lower level RHP prospects (Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, Freddy Peralta)

[MrTPlush]

Not all teenagers improve. Some know how to pitch but don't have the stuff to get out more advanced hitters. Some never develop secondary pitches. A lot get hurt. Some never develop the stamina to survive a full season.

 

You could literally change teenagers to anything you wanted. Of course they may not develop....everyone knows that.

[jerichoholicninja]

I just don't see the guys acquired as high reward types. Which combined with their high risk makes it an underwhelming deal. We'll know a lot more next year though.

 

Also don't knock average. An average first baseman might have done wonders in 2013 or 2014. No team fields 8 All Stars and an Ace every game. Arguably they wasted prime years of Grienke, Gomez, Lucroy, and Braun by not having enough average players.

 

I agree this seems like a high risk, low reward trade. If given the choice I'd rather have DJ Peterson than these 3. Peterson isn't going to light the league on fire, but he's probably a corner IF platoon bat which does have value especially for a small market team.

 

So you want Peterson and zero young pitchers with pitchability and upside OVER Cecchini and 3 young pitchers with pitchability and upside? Wow

 

Ya, not even close to what I said.

 

Cecchini has nothing to do with this trade and I'm fine with acquiring him. These 3 guys that Lind was traded for are more than likely to never amount to anything like most teenage international signings and even if they do it doesn't seem like they have much of a ceiling. And while I like what I see from stats about their command, they're still teenagers playing against teenagers, and I don't know what you can really take from those stats. I would rather have acquired a guy like Peterson who is very likely to at least make the majors and could fill either the 1B or 3B positions that this organization has huge holes at.

[Noche]

I swear the naysayers have never visited the MiLB Forum here. If you were to venture there, you might just find a report which describes Herrera and Peralta both hitting 93-95 on the gun this fall as skinny teenagers. These are blossoming pitchers.

 

Missaki is the most advanced and comps very nicely with a Zach Davies type.

 

Great trade. Phenomenal.

[LouisEly]

One thing to keep in mind is that the Brewers, like every other ML team, only have 40 roster spots for players at the majors and upper minors. Most guys need to be added to the 40-man before they are ready for the majors, which only leaves room for 15 guys in the upper minors who are not major-league ready. You can have too many upper-level prospects; if you don't have room on the 40-man then you may lose them to the Rule 5 or to waiver claims. These guys won't need to be protected for a few years, so this could be 40-man roster management.

 

If a trade for Lucroy is imminent (clearing a couple of 40-man spots, getting Pina from DET) they might need lower-level guys in this deal simply because they don't have the roster spots. Maybe not this year, but possibly next year or the year after.

[AKCheesehead]

I think when you consider whose fans have a higher likelihood of having a burning hatred of this trade down the road, it's Seattle.

 

Worst case for us: these international teenagers never add value to the MLB team nor value in future trades, and Lind has an amazing first half with high value at the deadline. At least we got international prospects, and without even paying the signing bonus on them. I won't miss too much sleep over losing 1 year of a good first baseman playing on a bad team.

 

Worst case for Seattle: Lind's 2014 season was the high water mark for both health and production. They pay $8million to have another Corey Hart on their hands. Meanwhile, one or more of these guys we received develops into a solid to excellent MLB pitcher years down the road. Mariner Fan could be stewing on this one a long time from now. Not predicting it, just saying.

[RobertR]

Not all teenagers improve. Some know how to pitch but don't have the stuff to get out more advanced hitters. Some never develop secondary pitches. A lot get hurt. Some never develop the stamina to survive a full season.

 

You could literally change teenagers to anything you wanted. Of course they may not develop....everyone knows that.

 

Apparently, everyone doesn't, as the idea that these guys are anything more than lottery tickets seems at odds with the idea that these guys are bound to improve and contribute some day. I don't particularly care what these guys may have hit on the radar gun one time, in short season, against other teenagers, these types of players are inherently unlikely to ever sniff the majors. The odds of making the majors out of short season ball, for unheralded prospects that are not in the top 30 for a weak Mariners system, are very long. Add in one has already had Tommy John surgery and the odds get longer.

 

Baseball America's writeup on the three of them makes them sound like far from can't miss prospects. Let's face it, it's tough for anyone to make it all the way to the majors.

 

Now, we'll see. Maybe the scouts know something in particular. But, I think the Brewers will likely get more use out of the money they saved and presumably will use for international signings than out of these particular three players. People do win the lottery, but it's not a wise investment strategy.

 

I'm not particularly anti- this trade. But, yeah, I'd rather have a player in AA with decent odds of making the majors over three unheralded guys in short season ball. I don't know if Stearns was offered that decent AA player, so I can't be too critical of the trade, but I think the Brewers got too cute here.

[502 to Right]

It's comical how some in thread are ripping the trade like they know something that David Sterns doesn't. Get over yourself. You have no clue what the true value of Adam Lind was to all of the interested GM's. I'm pretty sure that David Sterns does.

 

At the end of the day there's no way we can truly know if this was a good trade or a bad one until about 5 years goes by. Even then we still won't know what Adam Lind's value really was.

[Eye Black]

These 3 guys that Lind was traded for are more than likely to never amount to anything like most teenage international signings and even if they do it doesn't seem like they have much of a ceiling.

Why do you (and some others) think they have low ceilings? I get the part about the odds not being in their favor of reaching their ceilings, but curious what evidence suggests that they have low ceilings?

[pacopete4]

It's comical how some in thread are ripping the trade like they know something that David Sterns doesn't. Get over yourself. You have no clue what the true value of Adam Lind was to all of the interested GM's. I'm pretty sure that David Sterns does.

 

At the end of the day there's no way we can truly know if this was a good trade or a bad one until about 5 years goes by. Even then we still won't know what Adam Lind's value really was.

 

 

Maybe some just wanted a different type of package for Lind? I don't think I've seen a poster pretend to know what was truly on the table but I do always enjoy self righteous posts. Hope it made you feel better.

[RobDeer 45]

First, let me say, I think that it's good that people have strong opinions on the Brewers. It makes for good discussion here and that's why this is a great site. That said, when you are wrong about something, I will let you know (in blue).

 

I don't think you can call this a bad trade no matter what happens. I really don't think Lind is worth anything more than what we got. It's a gamble when you trade average talent. I think it's much easier to try and break down a trade when it's a star for stud prospects.

 

I'm cool for arguing that you would have liked a certain type of player over what we got, but when we throw names around like, why didn't we get Peterson instead, we are making huge assumptions that said person was available.

 

Back to my average point from before, I will second what Bill Hall All Star said. Right now I don't see average major league ready talent as anything that helps us. I would much rather take high risk/reward youth that lineup with our other prospects. I don't want to have average players at the major league level right now. I don't see that helping us in anyway. We can try to get average players when the time comes, but with out studs at the top, the team isn't going to compete.

[StearnsFTW]

It's comical how some in thread are ripping the trade like they know something that David Sterns doesn't. Get over yourself. You have no clue what the true value of Adam Lind was to all of the interested GM's. I'm pretty sure that David Sterns does.

 

At the end of the day there's no way we can truly know if this was a good trade or a bad one until about 5 years goes by. Even then we still won't know what Adam Lind's value really was.

 

 

Maybe some just wanted a different type of package for Lind? I don't think I've seen a poster pretend to know what was truly on the table but I do always enjoy self righteous posts. Hope it made you feel better.

 

Yeah, you should re-read the thread then. I agree with 502 that that facet of this discussion has been obnoxious.

[FVBrewerFan]

Baseball America's writeup on the three of them makes them sound like far from can't miss prospects. Let's face it, it's tough for anyone to make it all the way to the majors.

 

That's because a can't miss 18 year old is about as rare as seeing Bigfoot riding a unicorn. It is tough for anyone to make it all the way to MLB, that's why odds are better with three of them that one will.

 

Two of them can throw in the low-mid 90s, with control. That's not a bad skill set to start with at 18 years old.

[Boomer5]

I have nothing against these kids because I know nothing about them other than their write ups.

 

Everything we are seeing about the 3 kids is that they are on the cusp of maybe being prospects but more likely organizational arms. One year of Lind is worth more than the return in this specific trade. He just is. Taking nothing away from these kids but their chances of ever seeing the majors are incredibly low. We traded away a good asset and didnt move the needle on our farm system at all. Thats bad business.

 

The football draft analogy some gave feels about right. 7th round picks do pan out, but this feels like trading away a 3rd round pick for 3 7th round picks.

[brewerfan82]

I think part of the problem with assessing what we got in this trade is that they're not even old enough to be prospects yet. With their age, it's like we got three high school draft picks, guys whose skillsets we like, but we'll have to wait and see how they develop. It's kind of like figuring out a way to trade for draft picks in a system that doesn't allow you to trade for draft picks.

 

That said, is this like getting three 10th round picks? 20th round picks? 5th round picks? I have no idea, but it'd be interesting to hear what their equivalents would be in that respect more-so than where they would be ranked among existing prospects in our system.

[Ennder]

One year of Lind is worth more than the return in this specific trade. He just is

 

One year of an 32 year old, injury prone, platoon 1B whose defense is likely pushing him to DH for the Mariners is not worth more than this, it just isn't. Lind has some value against RHP but not a ton of it given all of his limitations. We were not going to get any sure thing prospect for him. Last year was nice and all but his previous 3 seasons combined were for negative WAR as in he has been below replacement level over that time. His poor defense and baserunning just eats away at whatever value the hitting gives him.

 

All 3 of these guys are plausible major league players. They are young and there is no way to know if they'll make it or not obviously but again we were not going to get sure thing talent for him no matter what. I'll take my chances on 3 younger guys over the marginal AA guy who we still wouldn't be sure is a major league arm that he would have gotten if they went with an older arm.

 

If even one of these 3 makes it as a bullpen arm down the line it is a positive return for Lind.

[pacopete4]

It's comical how some in thread are ripping the trade like they know something that David Sterns doesn't. Get over yourself. You have no clue what the true value of Adam Lind was to all of the interested GM's. I'm pretty sure that David Sterns does.

 

At the end of the day there's no way we can truly know if this was a good trade or a bad one until about 5 years goes by. Even then we still won't know what Adam Lind's value really was.

 

 

Maybe some just wanted a different type of package for Lind? I don't think I've seen a poster pretend to know what was truly on the table but I do always enjoy self righteous posts. Hope it made you feel better.

 

Yeah, you should re-read the thread then. I agree with 502 that that facet of this discussion has been obnoxious.

 

 

Comments like the one's bolded, underlined and italicized do nothing for this board. Never have, never will. If you don't like what someone has to say about a trade, than either don't read it or ignore it. It's very simple. It's a discussion board that people are allowed to express themselves about things like who the Brewers trade for. People can rip it to shreds if they want to.

[bill hAll Star]

Comments like the one's bolded, underlined and italicized do nothing for this board. Never have, never will. If you don't like what someone has to say about a trade, than either don't read it or ignore it. It's very simple. It's a discussion board that people are allowed to express themselves about things like who the Brewers trade for. People can rip it to shreds if they want to.

 

I think what 502 is saying is that you really have no idea what GMs were offering. I think it's silly to rip these international prospects that are all ~18 years old because they're not on a top 30 list yet, but even if that is granted, the main point is that people are angry and believe that they knew a better offer was on the table. That's what he was getting at.

 

The Peterson/Zunino rumors were out there among others, and those rumors have snowballed into the theory for many that they KNEW something like that was out there from several teams and that they also are of the opinion that that offer is clearly better than what he got. Again, the latter part of that (thinking that the package the Brewers got was inferior to the artificial offers) is annoying to me, but OK. It's the fact that people believe that they know something was better out there that is interesting.

 

I've seen a few/talked to a few people thinking it was a crappy return and that Stearns should have waited longer, etc. You really have no idea. It is entirely possible that he messed up the timing and picked the wrong return, but I tend to believe that the offers out there were way lower than some believe...and when once criticizes, they seem to do so KNOWING that there was a better offer out there (in their mind).

[pacopete4]

Comments like the one's bolded, underlined and italicized do nothing for this board. Never have, never will. If you don't like what someone has to say about a trade, than either don't read it or ignore it. It's very simple. It's a discussion board that people are allowed to express themselves about things like who the Brewers trade for. People can rip it to shreds if they want to.

 

I think what 502 is saying is that you really have no idea what GMs were offering. I think it's silly to rip these international prospects that are all ~18 years old because they're not on a top 30 list yet, but even if that is granted, the main point is that people are angry and believe that they knew a better offer was on the table. That's what he was getting at.

 

The Peterson/Zunino rumors were out there among others, and those rumors have snowballed into the theory for many that they KNEW something like that was out there from several teams and that they also are of the opinion that that offer is clearly better than what he got. Again, the latter part of that (thinking that the package the Brewers got was inferior to the artificial offers) is annoying to me, but OK. It's the fact that people believe that they know something was better out there that is interesting.

 

I've seen a few/talked to a few people thinking it was a crappy return and that Stearns should have waited longer, etc. You really have no idea. It is entirely possible that he messed up the timing and picked the wrong return, but I tend to believe that the offers out there were way lower than some believe...and when once criticizes, they seem to do so KNOWING that there was a better offer out there (in their mind).

 

 

Yeah I hear you there. And I completely agree that it's silly to pretend to know what was on the table for Lind. My only point was to almost shame those who have strong opinions against the trade is the wrong way to go about this board. If someone posts a strong opinion against it, move on and discuss what you want to discuss about the trade. Don't get all tied up in the shenanigans and then come and vent about it like you're better than someone else. That's where this board falls off the rails each and every time. And where we lose positive posters and great incite to the Brewers. If people didn't respond to the silliness, it would flame out a lot quicker and people would just discuss the Brewers.

[Thurston Fluff]

I look at getting these guys the same as I do when the Packers trades back in the draft to accumulate more picks instead of having one higher pick. At some point the level of prospect you are likely to get is outweighed by the odds that three others provide more. If we were talking about getting a can't miss, above average, major league player then sure go with that. But Lind was never going to get us that. He might get us someone closer the the majors but every step closer to the majors we got was likely also a step lower ceiling to go with it. Nobody was going to trade multiple years of a sure shot, above average player for one year of Adam Lind.

[reillymcshane]

 

That's because a can't miss 18 year old is about as rare as seeing Bigfoot riding a unicorn.

 

Gotcha covered.

 

[reillymcshane]

For what it's worth, a person I know with connections in the Brewer scouting department said the team loves Herrera. They think he's going to be something special in a few years.

 

Just thought I'd add that.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

That's because a can't miss 18 year old is about as rare as seeing Bigfoot riding a unicorn.

 

Gotcha covered.

 

 

Had every confidence in the world you would! That is.........awesome!

[StearnsFTW]

Comments like the one's bolded, underlined and italicized do nothing for this board. Never have, never will. If you don't like what someone has to say about a trade, than either don't read it or ignore it. It's very simple. It's a discussion board that people are allowed to express themselves about things like who the Brewers trade for. People can rip it to shreds if they want to.

 

I think what 502 is saying is that you really have no idea what GMs were offering. I think it's silly to rip these international prospects that are all ~18 years old because they're not on a top 30 list yet, but even if that is granted, the main point is that people are angry and believe that they knew a better offer was on the table. That's what he was getting at.

 

The Peterson/Zunino rumors were out there among others, and those rumors have snowballed into the theory for many that they KNEW something like that was out there from several teams and that they also are of the opinion that that offer is clearly better than what he got. Again, the latter part of that (thinking that the package the Brewers got was inferior to the artificial offers) is annoying to me, but OK. It's the fact that people believe that they know something was better out there that is interesting.

 

I've seen a few/talked to a few people thinking it was a crappy return and that Stearns should have waited longer, etc. You really have no idea. It is entirely possible that he messed up the timing and picked the wrong return, but I tend to believe that the offers out there were way lower than some believe...and when once criticizes, they seem to do so KNOWING that there was a better offer out there (in their mind).

 

That's it. Well said.

[BrewersAA]

I look at getting these guys the same as I do when the Packers trades back in the draft to accumulate more picks instead of having one higher pick. At some point the level of prospect you are likely to get is outweighed by the odds that three others provide more. If we were talking about getting a can't miss, above average, major league player then sure go with that. But Lind was never going to get us that. He might get us someone closer the the majors but every step closer to the majors we got was likely also a step lower ceiling to go with it. Nobody was going to trade multiple years of a sure shot, above average player for one year of Adam Lind.

 

I have been as passionate as any over this because i think its a truly awful trade. I guess, for me, the argument thats driving me up a wall is that these guys somehow have a high ceiling. age and ceiling are NOT synonyms, especially when it comes to the baseball world. Peterson, for instance (and im not implying that he was actually available in this trade though it was reported by several media members), has a far higher ceiling than any of these three. There are very few players capable of hitting 30+ homers in a minor league season, and hes one of them. So he had a down season last year, that literally make him the definition of high risk high reward. there is nothing about these guys that implies any type of high reward so i am just not sure where that is coming from. Keith Law, whom i despise yet respect, said that sterns was good to get 3 players for lind, but that he sacrificed quality for quantity and that it appears he was just looking for organizational depth with a few reliever types.

 

I apologize to you thurston, because this post isnt about you specifically, but the many that keep using words like "ceiling" "prospect" "upside" with these guys. if they had those things the scouting world would know it as best exampled by the top 100 being 20% teenagers.

[pacopete4]

Comments like the one's bolded, underlined and italicized do nothing for this board. Never have, never will. If you don't like what someone has to say about a trade, than either don't read it or ignore it. It's very simple. It's a discussion board that people are allowed to express themselves about things like who the Brewers trade for. People can rip it to shreds if they want to.

 

I think what 502 is saying is that you really have no idea what GMs were offering. I think it's silly to rip these international prospects that are all ~18 years old because they're not on a top 30 list yet, but even if that is granted, the main point is that people are angry and believe that they knew a better offer was on the table. That's what he was getting at.

 

The Peterson/Zunino rumors were out there among others, and those rumors have snowballed into the theory for many that they KNEW something like that was out there from several teams and that they also are of the opinion that that offer is clearly better than what he got. Again, the latter part of that (thinking that the package the Brewers got was inferior to the artificial offers) is annoying to me, but OK. It's the fact that people believe that they know something was better out there that is interesting.

 

I've seen a few/talked to a few people thinking it was a crappy return and that Stearns should have waited longer, etc. You really have no idea. It is entirely possible that he messed up the timing and picked the wrong return, but I tend to believe that the offers out there were way lower than some believe...and when once criticizes, they seem to do so KNOWING that there was a better offer out there (in their mind).

 

That's it. Well said.

 

You should try this approach next time. It would've been a good, positive read.