Lind to Mariners for 3 lower level RHP prospects (Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, Freddy Peralta)

[BrewBalls]

You could also say the reason our system has steadily improved over the last couple years is because Montgomery has chosen to draft younger higher ceiling players like Clark, D. Williams, Harrison, Medeiros, Gatewood and Orimoloye instead of college players (Arnett, Jungmann, Bradley and Heckathorn) who were suppose to move through the system faster but carried far less upside. I personally do not see any problem trading Lind for three young "unproven" pitchers instead of a player like DJ Peterson who offers little upside at this point and would clearly be starting his service time before we are competitive. The key to a successful rebuild is having quality players at all levels so you can sustain your success similar to how the Rays operate. You have a wave of players come up, supplement with cheap FA and trades then restock your farm system when your young stars who are getting close to free agency. You basically determine if you can afford to extend them and do you have another option in the minors who can replace his production. All the while you have a steady flow of young talent supplementing your current roster. Not all of the players you trade for will become bonafide all-stars. But having the back of your rotation, bulpen and bench full of cheap players will help offset the cost to extend your stars.

[Ennder]

You can't understand that people may not like that the Brewers may have just turned a proven, reasonably priced, major leaguer into three guys that are unlikely to amount to anything?

 

There is no reason to think they are unlikely to amount to anything. All three project as plausible major league arms even if they end up being bullpen guys. Lind was pretty much worthless to this team and if he was just released would probably get a one year deal worth about what he is getting payed now. The only argument I can see against this deal is that the team needs a 3B more than pitching but they can find a 3B with other assets.

[Boomer5]

You can't understand that people may not like that the Brewers may have just turned a proven, reasonably priced, major leaguer into three guys that are unlikely to amount to anything?

 

There is no reason to think they are unlikely to amount to anything. All three project as plausible major league arms even if they end up being bullpen guys. Lind was pretty much worthless to this team and if he was just released would probably get a one year deal worth about what he is getting payed now. The only argument I can see against this deal is that the team needs a 3B more than pitching but they can find a 3B with other assets.

 

Im sure someone smarter than I would have this answer, but it is a very low percentage of any rookie ball/short season players ever reaching the majors and none of these guys are classified as elite.

 

On a percentage basis, there is every reason to think that none of these guys will ever amount to anything. Its highly likely that Zach Davies has already pitched more major league innings than all three of these guys will ever pitch.

 

I have no problem trading away Lind of course. It was a good thing to do for the future, but these guys are really low level assets.

[BrewBalls]

We have to remember the model Stearns was a part of before becoming the brewers gm....Houston was atrocious at the MLB level for three seasons, which came after several more seasons of decline. They took the long approach, almost sacrificing the quality of the MLB roster in order to acquire prospects by all possible means.

 

I think the brewers currently have more in the cupboard than the Astros did when they were on the way to rock bottom, but it will be interesting to see if Stearns wants to build around some of the talent in its prime at or near the MLB level, or go scorched earth like Houston did a handful of years ago.

I don't think we need to go the scorched earth route but do think it doesn't hurt to tank the next couple of seasons to land top 5 draft picks. This is how Houston was able to load up their farm system with top tier talent. Currently they have 3 players in the top 60 who were all drafted top 5 (Bregman #21, Appel #43, Tucker #56) and two others who were considered top 25 prospects in the past who are now parts of their current core (Correa #2 in 2014 and Springer #23 in 2013). My guess is we do not need to tank for 5 years since we already possess some top level talent in our system (Arcia, Phillips and Clark)and already hold the #5 pick in this years draft but 2-3 wouldn't hurt. In the meantime, I'm okay with fielding a team with players like Reed (CF), Rogers (1B), Villar (3B), Rivera (SS) and Maldy © if we are picking up studs in the draft.

[BrewBalls]

You can't understand that people may not like that the Brewers may have just turned a proven, reasonably priced, major leaguer into three guys that are unlikely to amount to anything?

 

There is no reason to think they are unlikely to amount to anything. All three project as plausible major league arms even if they end up being bullpen guys. Lind was pretty much worthless to this team and if he was just released would probably get a one year deal worth about what he is getting payed now. The only argument I can see against this deal is that the team needs a 3B more than pitching but they can find a 3B with other assets.

 

Im sure someone smarter than I would have this answer, but it is a very low percentage of any rookie ball/short season players ever reaching the majors and none of these guys are classified as elite.

 

On a percentage basis, there is every reason to think that none of these guys will ever amount to anything. Its highly likely that Zach Davies has already pitched more major league innings than all three of these guys will ever pitch.

 

I have no problem trading away Lind of course. It was a good thing to do for the future, but these guys are really low level assets.

The reason none of these pitchers are known commodities is they were signed internationally and have only pitched in the DSL which is a very short season. International players who are signed at a young age (usually 16) tend to fly under the radar since there are usually few scouting reports or information on these players. Even when Aroldis Chapman signed his contract with the Reds the general public knew very little of him prior to him holding his workouts for scouts and GMs. Will they be top of the rotation starters? Probably not. Although the odds greatly increase if you are hoping they develop into valuable assets for future trades of become quality relievers. We traded a year of Aoki who was on a extremely cheap contract for Will Smith and i remember people were upset all we got back was a reliever. do you think they are still upset with this trade today?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Can't understand why anyone wouldn't like this trade. Stearns shopped him around, got 3 long term call options and continues to build depth at all levels in the system. These guys are teenagers...who knows what they'll turn into. All we have with Lind is a guy who could take a 65 win team and turn them into a 68 win team. Just keep accumulating talent David.

 

You can't understand that people may not like that the Brewers may have just turned a proven, reasonably priced, major leaguer into three guys that are unlikely to amount to anything?

 

I think it's possible to agree with Stearns' overall plan, and question individual decisions. Now, none of us know what else was on the table, but the Brewers farm system has come far enough that you can make an argument that lower risk quality might be more important than higher risk quantity at this stage. Especially since the Mariners farm system isn't exactly swimming in talent. And the money available would have been the same in either case.

I just don't see that being the case. They have a vastly improved system, but this isn't the Royals before their run or the Cubs a couple years ago. The Brewers won't have the luxury the Cubs have in piling on with FAs. They need to continue to stockpile talent at all levels of the system.

[And That]

you can make an argument that lower risk quality might be more important than higher risk quantity at this stage

I think the opposite is true - the farm system has built up enough depth that more depth isn't going to move the needle over the long haul. All three might end up flaming out in A-ball, and the Brewers won't really be effected by it as they seem to have a stream of arms set to hit Milwaukee over the next 2-4 years. If one of them really does figure it out, great.

 

If you pick up a guy like D.J. Peterson though, you more or less know what you're getting. It looks like his upside might be as a serviceable first baseman in the near term, but does he help Milwaukee win a championship? I tend to doubt it. I'd even argue that any marginal value he'd provide in the near term would hinder Milwaukee's chances of getting a better draft pick over the next few years. And of course he could turn out to be the next Josh Donaldson too, but I am assuming that Milwaukee's pro scouting staff made a determination that he likely won't.

[1992casey]

As reillymcshane said, the system needs both quality and quantity. Also, it needs to be stocked at all levels.

 

We can't look at this trade in isolation. If this is the only kind of deal that Stearns makes, it would make sense to be concerned. But hopefully, as we see more deals, this trade will fit in as one of a variety of ways that are being used to build.

[MadScientist]

You can't understand that people may not like that the Brewers may have just turned a proven, reasonably priced, major leaguer into three guys that are unlikely to amount to anything?

 

There is no reason to think they are unlikely to amount to anything. All three project as plausible major league arms even if they end up being bullpen guys. Lind was pretty much worthless to this team and if he was just released would probably get a one year deal worth about what he is getting payed now. The only argument I can see against this deal is that the team needs a 3B more than pitching but they can find a 3B with other assets.

 

Im sure someone smarter than I would have this answer, but it is a very low percentage of any rookie ball/short season players ever reaching the majors and none of these guys are classified as elite.

 

On a percentage basis, there is every reason to think that none of these guys will ever amount to anything. Its highly likely that Zach Davies has already pitched more major league innings than all three of these guys will ever pitch.

 

I have no problem trading away Lind of course. It was a good thing to do for the future, but these guys are really low level assets.

 

Unfortunately we will never know what the other two serious offers for Lind were. What is clear is that Sterns likes these guys, a lot. He also knows the flame out rate for low level players and thought getting 3 greatly improves the chances of getting a major leaguer out of this deal. I'm not jumping up and down over this, but I'm cautiously optimistic. They could easily be a bunch of Will Inman types, but something in Sterns' metrics said they were legit prospects. For now I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

If nothing else, it looks like a better return for Lind than Oakland got for Lawrie.

[homer]

To win a pennant you need, at the very least, an ace or even two. A team like Milwaukee can't buy an ace on the open market so they have to develop one. Sometimes that means throwing a bunch of darts at once and see which one hits the bulls-eye. Perhaps the market inefficiency Stearns is looking for is grabbing prospects that show promise but haven't had that break-out season yet which means they'd be too pricey to acquire.

 

In any case, the brewers need as many chips as possible (Particularly pitching chips) with which they can deal to fill in the blanks later.

[RobertR]

Honestly I don't believe that getting 3 guys really increases your odds significantly. Three times zero is still zero. Now, I agree that their odds are better than zero, clearly their floors are at least low -A which is not insignificant, but three unheralded guys like this have a long, long ways to go.

 

Which doesn't make it a bad trade, but certainly makes it a high risk trade in that there's a significant chance they traded something for nothing. And there's also value in having some cheap talent on the major league field in the interim. Last I checked MLB requires you to field a team and stop gap free agents make more than minimum.

 

I don't hate the trade as it's clear that Lind was not part of the next winning team or had significant value in helping to develop talent. But I'll be surprised if any of these players acquired is part of the next winning team either.

[CheezWizHed]

The Cubs are a beer garden with a huge market who still haven't won anything, they are going to draw their drunken fans and fill that park no matter what.

Fixed.

 

To be fair, you could say almost the exact (minus the "big market") same thing about the Brewers.

 

To some extent, yes. But the Cubs were truly experts at it. Having worked in Chicagoland for 8 years, the draw of ditching work in the middle of the day to go out to the game and drink was a pretty common occurrence for Cubs fans. It didn't matter if the team stunk or if Bartman was keeping them from winning it all. They were always full in the mid-day games. And even the Cubs fans themselves called Wrigley field a beer garden.

 

Go to a mid-day Brewer game and its filled with school kids and empty seats.

[JackNicholson1974]

The only problem I see with this trade is that our mentality is that trades are supposed to be somewhat exciting. Ok, we trade a major league 1b and get some prospects back, in AA, AAA, maybe even a rookie. This trade though is three lottery tickets that might mature in 4-5 years if ever. Hard to get excited about it, but that doesnt mean its a bad deal.

[MrTPlush]

There are these things called scouts that go and what players play. Based on those scouting reports from all the players considered to be traded for Stearns felt like this was the best talent potential. Instead of trading for some known role player like a future 1B/3B utility man he decided to throw darts at the board. I highly doubt Stearns was surfing baseball reference and saw these guys and thought that is what he wanted. I am sure he got scouting reports and briefed on their potential.

[RobDeer 45]

I tend to think in this period of time the Brewers are better off with high risk high reward type moves. Getting average players is not going to help us.

 

As Homer said - pitching prospects make the world go round this day and age. There will always be buyers if we ever end up with too many.

[EauClaireNWL]

Stearns traded one year of Lind for some young pitching prospects. I'm fine with it because you can never have enough good prospects in your system. It's not like this team was going to be a playoff contender next year anyways where we were going to need Lind's bat and experience at 1B anyways.

[RobertR]

I tend to think in this period of time the Brewers are better off with high risk high reward type moves. Getting average players is not going to help us.

 

As Homer said - pitching prospects make the world go round this day and age. There will always be buyers if we ever end up with too many.

 

I just don't see the guys acquired as high reward types. Which combined with their high risk makes it an underwhelming deal. We'll know a lot more next year though.

 

Also don't knock average. An average first baseman might have done wonders in 2013 or 2014. No team fields 8 All Stars and an Ace every game. Arguably they wasted prime years of Grienke, Gomez, Lucroy, and Braun by not having enough average players.

[1992casey]

Also don't knock average. An average first baseman might have done wonders in 2013 or 2014. No team fields 8 All Stars and an Ace every game. Arguably they wasted prime years of Grienke, Gomez, Lucroy, and Braun by not having enough average players.

 

Also, more players are below average than above. That pulls the median down and puts an average player in the top half.

[jerichoholicninja]

I tend to think in this period of time the Brewers are better off with high risk high reward type moves. Getting average players is not going to help us.

 

As Homer said - pitching prospects make the world go round this day and age. There will always be buyers if we ever end up with too many.

 

I just don't see the guys acquired as high reward types. Which combined with their high risk makes it an underwhelming deal. We'll know a lot more next year though.

 

Also don't knock average. An average first baseman might have done wonders in 2013 or 2014. No team fields 8 All Stars and an Ace every game. Arguably they wasted prime years of Grienke, Gomez, Lucroy, and Braun by not having enough average players.

 

I agree this seems like a high risk, low reward trade. If given the choice I'd rather have DJ Peterson than these 3. Peterson isn't going to light the league on fire, but he's probably a corner IF platoon bat which does have value especially for a small market team.

[bill hAll Star]

I tend to think in this period of time the Brewers are better off with high risk high reward type moves. Getting average players is not going to help us.

 

As Homer said - pitching prospects make the world go round this day and age. There will always be buyers if we ever end up with too many.

 

I just don't see the guys acquired as high reward types. Which combined with their high risk makes it an underwhelming deal. We'll know a lot more next year though.

 

Also don't knock average. An average first baseman might have done wonders in 2013 or 2014. No team fields 8 All Stars and an Ace every game. Arguably they wasted prime years of Grienke, Gomez, Lucroy, and Braun by not having enough average players.

 

I think the issue is that if you acquire a near-ready/average player, it's not a terrible thing and I agree that it would have been helpful in 2013-2014, but the position gets stagnant while we get average players too early.

 

There's the whole draft pick tanking thing where Peterson, for example, hurts. There's the idea that we don't try to go out and get another prospect because, "well, we've got Peterson there."

 

Most importantly, I'm all for high risk/high reward for 2 reasons:

1. It's not as if we don't get 1 "average" player out of the package anyways and it's a wash, we just get the player in 2019, not 2017.

2. I want to shoot for all superstars like the Cubs. If you miss at a position, you're paying a bunch of superstars minimal money at the other positions, and you can go fill the hole by overpaying Ben Zobrist temporarily, an "above average" player, because your payroll is so low. Patch the ancillary holes later...now now.

 

Now, if the Brewers were competitive, then yes, I'm patching holes with average players, ASAP. Instead, I know that out of all of these high risk/high reward players, some might just turn out to patch those holes anyways or I can just take my cost savings down the road and find my "average" player.

[StearnsFTW]

The ages of these guys seem to be lost in a lot of these posts.

 

There is so much projection involved, that a lot of what they've done is almost irrelevant. And that includes not growing to their full heights.

[billymac]

All three are under 20 and did very well regarding K/B ratios and WHIP, which is what you want out of every pitcher. They can pitch the strike zone already with very good control. They will improve as well, they are teenagers. I'm ok with it. Won't know how it turns out until this thread is revived in 3 years. Depth for the system.

[RobertR]

Not all teenagers improve. Some know how to pitch but don't have the stuff to get out more advanced hitters. Some never develop secondary pitches. A lot get hurt. Some never develop the stamina to survive a full season.

[MKE81]

I tend to think in this period of time the Brewers are better off with high risk high reward type moves. Getting average players is not going to help us.

 

As Homer said - pitching prospects make the world go round this day and age. There will always be buyers if we ever end up with too many.

 

I just don't see the guys acquired as high reward types. Which combined with their high risk makes it an underwhelming deal. We'll know a lot more next year though.

 

Also don't knock average. An average first baseman might have done wonders in 2013 or 2014. No team fields 8 All Stars and an Ace every game. Arguably they wasted prime years of Grienke, Gomez, Lucroy, and Braun by not having enough average players.

 

I agree this seems like a high risk, low reward trade. If given the choice I'd rather have DJ Peterson than these 3. Peterson isn't going to light the league on fire, but he's probably a corner IF platoon bat which does have value especially for a small market team.

 

So you want Peterson and zero young pitchers with pitchability and upside OVER Cecchini and 3 young pitchers with pitchability and upside? Wow

[billymac]

Some develop 2nd and 3rd and 4th pitches, some stay healthy and go onto long careers and some put on some good weight. Some turn out to be aces. I'd take my chances on 3 guys showing promise at this age for one year of a guy who is not going to make a difference on our ball club this year and hope that one or two guys will make it in a few years. I'm just saying that we'll find out in a couple years, no one knows and alot can happen. This is where our development team comes into play. We'll see how Stearns does it, because Melvin's development team certainly couldn't.