David Stearns wants to acquire a CF

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't see Davis putting up numbers to different than last season so I would look to trade him now. His value to a team with payroll restraints would be drastically increased over his value once he is arbitration eligible since power pays in arbitration.

 

Davis AB/HR rate of 14.5 was better than all but Bryce Harper, Carlos Gonzalez (Q) and Mike Stanton (NQ) in the NL. His career rate of one HR ever 17.2 AB's would have tied him with Goldschmidt for 7th last year. If he gets 550 AB's and reverts to his career rate, that's 32 HR. If he maintains his 2015 rate, that's 38.

 

Trading him now would be repeating the mistake Pittsburgh made dealing Bautista or Cincinnati trading Encarnacion early. Davis value isn't likely to go down a year from now but it could well skyrocket with a 40 HR season. While I'm not predicting he'll hit 40, the potential is certainly there.

 

 

Davis upped his walk rate as well last year. To add onto this, while his "ok" defense lowers his value to a team in the W/L column, a 35 homerun, .830 OPS season will certainly give him value to the Brewers on the trade market. Probably over and above what his actual value to the Brewers is in the win column. Unless he completely tanks and has an awful season, there's no reason to not let Davis get 600 PA's and see if he can completely peak his trade value this year.

[A Swing and A Drive]

You guys are seriously overrating Khris Davis' talent if you think he has the potential to be as good as Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion.

 

Baseball Reference lists the following players as similar batters to Khris Davis:

 

Nolan Reimold

Cody Ross

Jason Lane

Tyler Colvin

Seth Smith

 

I think it's time for a reality check.

[BrewBalls]

If we are projecting he will continue to improve this season don't you think there are one or more GMs who agree with your analysis and are wiling to pay for this potential based on his current body of work knowing this production will only cost them the league minimum next season. If his production does blow up next season so will his salary ($6-7MM versus $3-4MM) next season since arbitration weighs heavy on HR numbers. Remember, seven years ago, Prince got $33MM (7, 11 and 15) for his three arby years which I could see Davis getting something similar in today's market if he can continue producing at a similar rate..

[MrTPlush]

You guys are seriously overrating Khris Davis' talent if you think he has the potential to be as good as Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion.

 

Baseball Reference lists the following players as similar batters to Khris Davis:

 

Nolan Reimold

Cody Ross

Jason Lane

Tyler Colvin

Seth Smith

 

I think it's time for a reality check.

 

 

Yes a reality check that the BR similar batters are pointless and horribly inaccurate. You really think those are similar batters? Really?

[TooLiveBrew]

You guys are seriously overrating Khris Davis' talent if you think he has the potential to be as good as Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion.

 

Baseball Reference lists the following players as similar batters to Khris Davis:

 

Nolan Reimold

Cody Ross

Jason Lane

Tyler Colvin

Seth Smith

 

I think it's time for a reality check.

 

 

Yes a reality check that the BR similar batters are pointless and horribly inaccurate. You really think those are similar batters? Really?

I think it's accurate to say that trading Khrush now would be the definition of selling high. He'll be entering his age-28 season, & is under team control through 2019. If there's a GM (or two) out there that thinks he might well be the next Bautista/late-blooming slugger & is willing to pay for him, Stearns should cash in & never look back.

 

I don't think he's Nolan Reimold or Tyler Colvin as a hitter, but I do think the Brewers should be ready to deal if someone comes along & values Davis highly. .250/.315/.494/.809 career big-league line, with a .230/.285/.451/.736 line away from Miller Park. He's clearly not a centerpiece to build around for this club.

[sveumrules]

2013-14 Evan Gattis 253/304/487

2014-15 Khris Davis 245/309/478

 

Following 2014 Gattis was traded for Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman & Mike Foltynewicz. He was going into his age 28 season and had 4 years of team control remaining. Khris Davis is going into his age 28 season and has 4 years of team control remaining.

[pacopete4]

2013-14 Evan Gattis 253/304/487

2014-15 Khris Davis 245/309/478

 

Following 2014 Gattis was traded for Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman & Mike Foltynewicz. He was going into his age 28 season and had 4 years of team control remaining. Khris Davis is going into his age 28 season and has 4 years of team control remaining.

 

 

Not an overly impressive trade looking at those three.

[reillymcshane]

2013-14 Evan Gattis 253/304/487

2014-15 Khris Davis 245/309/478

 

Following 2014 Gattis was traded for Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman & Mike Foltynewicz. He was going into his age 28 season and had 4 years of team control remaining. Khris Davis is going into his age 28 season and has 4 years of team control remaining.

 

 

Not an overly impressive trade looking at those three.

I was wondering about the quality of the guys that Atlanta got last year for Gattis (wondering what our potential take could be). After taking a look, it was definitely a mixed bag. Foltynewicz was the key - a big arm (could reach 100 mph on his fastball) who had, prior to 2014, been a Top 100 prospect. But he had a mediocre 2014, so had dropped out of the top ranks. Ruiz was a young 3B, not a lot of power, but with room to grow. Thurman was a mostly just a guy - nothing special - potential to be a reliever or maybe a back of the rotation starter if things went well for him.

 

It's not a great haul, but it's also a little hard to judge due to the view of Foltynewicz, which was kind of all over the place after his tough 2014. Some people still loved the guy, others saw a reliever.

 

Obviously, we have 2015 behind us, and the guys Atlanta got have not emerged as anything special.

 

If this is the type of prospect package we would get in a deal for Davis, I'm a little inclined to keep him, and hope he starts off 2016 like he finished 2015 - and thus improve the prospects we could fetch. Of course, if someone wants to overpay now, great. It would open a spot for Santana (plus stock up the farm system with more prospects). But I'm not sure anyone will overpay for Khris. The power surge last year is, I'm sure, intriguing to some clubs, but teams will be wary. Still, you never know.

[Boomer5]

With the current roster, Santana should be the CF and thats that. Yes he is not a true CF. Yes at times he make us wish Kotsay was out there.

 

But the team is going to lose 100 games. Santana is likely to be a key player going forward. You could make a good argument he projects to being one of our top 5-10 players on the roster. Why not get him the ABs he needs to develop? He isn't a bench player and what does a year at CS do for any slugger?

[BrewBalls]

With the current roster, Santana should be the CF and thats that. Yes he is not a true CF. Yes at times he make us wish Kotsay was out there.

 

But the team is going to lose 100 games. Santana is likely to be a key player going forward. You could make a good argument he projects to being one of our top 5-10 players on the roster. Why not get him the ABs he needs to develop? He isn't a bench player and what does a year at CS do for any slugger?

Hence why I'm advocating for Stearns to trade Davis. Let's get Santana playing his natural position (RF) and shift Braun back to LF. Davis would net us a decent prospect(s).

[sveumrules]

2013-14 Evan Gattis 253/304/487

2014-15 Khris Davis 245/309/478

 

Following 2014 Gattis was traded for Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman & Mike Foltynewicz. He was going into his age 28 season and had 4 years of team control remaining. Khris Davis is going into his age 28 season and has 4 years of team control remaining.

 

 

Not an overly impressive trade looking at those three.

 

None of the three players acquired by the Braves did much to help their stock in 2015, but at the time of the Trade Folty was Houston's 3rd rated prospect by BA (behind Correa & Appel, above Velaszquez & Maverick) & ranked 43/54/59 on the top 100 of BP/MLB/BA.

 

Ruiz was Houston's 8th rated prospect at the time per BA, 2 spots ahead of Josh Hader. He got a 1.85 million dollar overslot signing bonus as a 4th rounder and had put up 115 & 119 wRC+ marks with strong walk rates in A & A+ the two seasons prior while being about 2.5 years younger than league average at each spot.

 

Thurman didn't show up on any lists that I could find but it looks like he was a 2nd round pick pitchability guy the year before the trade.

 

Add it all up and if we can trade Davis for a package that includes a top 50ish MLB ready prospect, another guy in a highly regarded farm's top 10 who has performed 15%-20% better than league average while also being young for his league & taking a good deal of walks, plus a third guy who was a 2nd round pick a year ago I'd probably pull the trigger.

[MrTPlush]

Evan Gattis comparison isn't too bad. I'd say Davis has more value because he can actually play LF while Gattis is pretty strictly a DH. That and the fact Khris Davis has shown improvement in his time at the MLB level, while Gattis was traded as more of a one year wonder that a lot expected to come back down to earth.

 

I buy the comparison though, but I feel Khris Davis has a bit more value for the reasons stated above. If his OBP increase and power surge are legit he has notably more value, but that would take another year to be fully sure about.

[reillymcshane]

2013-14 Evan Gattis 253/304/487

2014-15 Khris Davis 245/309/478

 

Following 2014 Gattis was traded for Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman & Mike Foltynewicz. He was going into his age 28 season and had 4 years of team control remaining. Khris Davis is going into his age 28 season and has 4 years of team control remaining.

 

 

Not an overly impressive trade looking at those three.

 

None of the three players acquired by the Braves did much to help their stock in 2015, but at the time of the Trade Folty was Houston's 3rd rated prospect by BA (behind Correa & Appel, above Velaszquez & Maverick) & ranked 43/54/59 on the top 100 of BP/MLB/BA.

 

The rankings you have listed are pre-2014 - not pre-2015. Foltynewicz had dropped off BA's and BP's lists after putting up a 5.08 ERA at AAA (as well as a 5.30 ERA in 18.2 innings at the big league level).

 

MLB Pipeline still had him at #78 prior to 2015, but the other publications had dropped him out of the Top 100.

[Boomer5]

With the current roster, Santana should be the CF and thats that. Yes he is not a true CF. Yes at times he make us wish Kotsay was out there.

 

But the team is going to lose 100 games. Santana is likely to be a key player going forward. You could make a good argument he projects to being one of our top 5-10 players on the roster. Why not get him the ABs he needs to develop? He isn't a bench player and what does a year at CS do for any slugger?

Hence why I'm advocating for Stearns to trade Davis. Let's get Santana playing his natural position (RF) and shift Braun back to LF. Davis would net us a decent prospect(s).

 

That's fine for plan A if a big trade is offered.

 

My issue is it seems like Plan B is to sit Santana and bring in some below replacement level guy just because he is a CF.

[Roderick]

With the current roster, Santana should be the CF and thats that. Yes he is not a true CF. Yes at times he make us wish Kotsay was out there.

 

But the team is going to lose 100 games. Santana is likely to be a key player going forward. You could make a good argument he projects to being one of our top 5-10 players on the roster. Why not get him the ABs he needs to develop? He isn't a bench player and what does a year at CS do for any slugger?

 

I agree, but my hesitation is that if he doesn't do well in the field and he lets that get him down or takes that to the plate with him. You kind of have to know what kind of personality you are dealing with, can he just brush it off or will he dwell on it or try to do too much at the plate to make up for it.

[MrTPlush]

With the current roster, Santana should be the CF and thats that. Yes he is not a true CF. Yes at times he make us wish Kotsay was out there.

 

But the team is going to lose 100 games. Santana is likely to be a key player going forward. You could make a good argument he projects to being one of our top 5-10 players on the roster. Why not get him the ABs he needs to develop? He isn't a bench player and what does a year at CS do for any slugger?

 

I agree, but my hesitation is that if he doesn't do well in the field and he lets that get him down or takes that to the plate with him. You kind of have to know what kind of personality you are dealing with, can he just brush it off or will he dwell on it or try to do too much at the plate to make up for it.

 

Well depends what kind of bad defense we are talking about. Errors are what can get into a players head. Just not having the range or bad routes won't really effect a player as much because he probably doesn't realize it.

[gregmag]

I agree that playing Santana in cf would be better than parking him on the bench or dumping him in AAA because you can't find room for him. But I also agree that playing Santana in cf has a major downside, and I think we should make a very strong effort to avoid it.

 

Santana's approach at the plate needs work. We all know this. That work is very important, because his bat (and to a much lesser extent his arm) is what could make him a star. Playing a guy out of position, setting him up to fail defensively, isn't a great way to help him focus on maximizing his offensive potential. Maybe Santana has the kind of personality where it wouldn't make any difference, but I would never bet on that. Also, cf is more physically demanding. The cf has to move on a lot more plays than the corner guys do. Santana's young and strong, but he also carries a big body, so a marginal increase in fatigue could come into play. Also, I don't care much if we lose, but having fielders who can't back up our young pitchers is probably the most damaging way for this team to lose.

 

I'm a Davis fan. I think he's a useful player. I'm also a charter member of the move-Braun-to-1b windmill-tilting club. But I'd much rather trade Davis and bring in some guy to play cf than rely on Santana as the cf.

[endaround]

I agree that playing Santana in cf would be better than parking him on the bench or dumping him in AAA because you can't find room for him. But I also agree that playing Santana in cf has a major downside, and I think we should make a very strong effort to avoid it.

 

Santana's approach at the plate needs work. We all know this. That work is very important, because his bat (and to a much lesser extent his arm) is what could make him a star. Playing a guy out of position, setting him up to fail defensively, isn't a great way to help him focus on maximizing his offensive potential. Maybe Santana has the kind of personality where it wouldn't make any difference, but I would never bet on that. Also, cf is more physically demanding. The cf has to move on a lot more plays than the corner guys do. Santana's young and strong, but he also carries a big body, so a marginal increase in fatigue could come into play. Also, I don't care much if we lose, but having fielders who can't back up our young pitchers is probably the most damaging way for this team to lose.

 

I'm a Davis fan. I think he's a useful player. I'm also a charter member of the move-Braun-to-1b windmill-tilting club. But I'd much rather trade Davis and bring in some guy to play cf than rely on Santana as the cf.

And I would much rather trade Braun who will likely be bad by the time the Brewers are competitive again than Davis who will (hopefully) be still in his prime.

 

Let's kill two birds with one stone, trade Braun to the Giants for Pagan and a prospect.

[brewcrewdue80]

You guys are seriously overrating Khris Davis' talent if you think he has the potential to be as good as Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion.

 

Baseball Reference lists the following players as similar batters to Khris Davis:

 

Nolan Reimold

Cody Ross

Jason Lane

Tyler Colvin

Seth Smith

 

I think it's time for a reality check.

 

 

Yes a reality check that the BR similar batters are pointless and horribly inaccurate. You really think those are similar batters? Really?

 

I think the similar batters comes in the form of total stats by that age. One name left out? Yoenis Cespedes. There you go for your upside talk.

 

It's not a good comparison when those on that list are at 4-5 seasons and Davis has just 3. Just like Cespedes is on the same list I'm looking at but only 2 seasons of stats. I do like some BRef comparisons but in this instance it's not a good compare.

[MKE81]

Khris Davis is average at best. Power is the only tool he possesses. So if you're looking for a guy that will hit 250/330 (maybe), 35HR, 70rbi with average speed, average routes to the ball and the worst arm you've probably ever seen allowing runners to take 3b on balls directly at your LF then Davis is your man. He's literally had 3 good months the past 2 seasons. There's zero consistency. Someone mentioned he walked more last year in 100 fewer ABs. Great. He also K'd the same amount. He has no understanding on the strike zone, swings at awful pitches consistently and doesn't use all fields. You can bury your head in all the analytics you want but watch a game once in a while

[And That]

You can bury your head in all the analytics you want but watch a game once in a while

Stop.

[endaround]

Khris Davis is average at best. Power is the only tool he possesses. So if you're looking for a guy that will hit 250/330 (maybe), 35HR, 70rbi with average speed, average routes to the ball and the worst arm you've probably ever seen allowing runners to take 3b on balls directly at your LF then Davis is your man. He's literally had 3 good months the past 2 seasons. There's zero consistency. Someone mentioned he walked more last year in 100 fewer ABs. Great. He also K'd the same amount. He has no understanding on the strike zone, swings at awful pitches consistently and doesn't use all fields. You can bury your head in all the analytics you want but watch a game once in a while

 

His O-swing% of 27.6% is fine and the difference between him and those better than him not named Votto would be impossible to tell with the naked eye.

And his hit spray chart shows him using all fields when he makes solid contact.

[MNBrew]

I agree that playing Santana in cf would be better than parking him on the bench or dumping him in AAA because you can't find room for him. But I also agree that playing Santana in cf has a major downside, and I think we should make a very strong effort to avoid it.

 

Santana's approach at the plate needs work. We all know this. That work is very important, because his bat (and to a much lesser extent his arm) is what could make him a star. Playing a guy out of position, setting him up to fail defensively, isn't a great way to help him focus on maximizing his offensive potential. Maybe Santana has the kind of personality where it wouldn't make any difference, but I would never bet on that. Also, cf is more physically demanding. The cf has to move on a lot more plays than the corner guys do. Santana's young and strong, but he also carries a big body, so a marginal increase in fatigue could come into play. Also, I don't care much if we lose, but having fielders who can't back up our young pitchers is probably the most damaging way for this team to lose.

 

I'm a Davis fan. I think he's a useful player. I'm also a charter member of the move-Braun-to-1b windmill-tilting club. But I'd much rather trade Davis and bring in some guy to play cf than rely on Santana as the cf.

And I would much rather trade Braun who will likely be bad by the time the Brewers are competitive again than Davis who will (hopefully) be still in his prime.

 

Let's kill two birds with one stone, trade Braun to the Giants for Pagan and a prospect.

Hmmm. I'd think Braun's ceiling (multiple-MVP-contending caliber and arguably a pretty complete player) is and has been quite higher than Davis', not that a single tool or stat of Davis' might not exceed Braun on that one count. That said, while Braun is 4 years older than Davis, Davis can still only hope his game reaches at least once the levels that Braun has reached with pretty high consistency when injuries (and that one, um, little screwup) haven't seriously hindered his play. Given how Braun produced once he got his groove back this past season after a 1.5 years of rust & injuries, including still having very solid speed as well at age 31, I'm inclined to think there's a very reasonable chance that in 4 years, Braun's still at least as good if not a better overall player at age 36 than Davis will be at age 32.

 

I could well end up wrong. And if it's because Davis became the upper-eschelon player that Braun's been most of his career up 'til now, I'll more than gladly eat crow. . . . And if they're both terrible but Davis happens to be only slightly better, well, then who cares who proved to be right because that scenario doesn't bode well for the Brewers no matter how you slice it!

[clancyphile]

With the current roster, Santana should be the CF and thats that. Yes he is not a true CF. Yes at times he make us wish Kotsay was out there.

 

But the team is going to lose 100 games. Santana is likely to be a key player going forward. You could make a good argument he projects to being one of our top 5-10 players on the roster. Why not get him the ABs he needs to develop? He isn't a bench player and what does a year at CS do for any slugger?

Hence why I'm advocating for Stearns to trade Davis. Let's get Santana playing his natural position (RF) and shift Braun back to LF. Davis would net us a decent prospect(s).

 

I'd roll with a Davis-Santana-Braun OF.

 

If the team's gonna have a rough year, at least give the fans homers. Who knows? Maybe lightning gets caught in a bottle.

[sveumrules]

He's literally had 3 good months the past 2 seasons.

 

Davis has had monthly OPS splits of .683, .914, .799, .734, .758, .579, .699, .865, .620, .867 & .937 the last two seasons. With the average LF producing an OPS of .720 in 2014 & .730 in 2015 I'd say that's 4 good months, 3 better than average months and 4 below average months.