Dylan Bundy

[MKE81]

He is a declining asset and possibly severely so.

How so? If Braun basically repeats his 2015 performance in 2016, which is certainly not impossible and may even be likely, his contract looks even better next offseason. Figuring in deferred money, he's being paid about market rate this year ($15 mil), and he might be paid less than market next year.

 

With the thumb and back there is no way he will play even at 2015 levels for the entire balance of his contract. Maybe the next two years but certainly not all 5. Im not a doctor but in the no ped era, players get worse as they get older, not better. Therefore every day we have him, is a day less of production to the market.

 

Sweet logic. Players get worse as they get older. So Trout will never perform equal to or greater than last year. Got it. Good to know that Braun is a worse player tomorrow than he is today. Braun will have better numbers this year than last year. His final 2yrs he'll still be a solid player because he was never an above average player to begin with - he was elite. Big difference

[MrTPlush]

Sweet logic. Players get worse as they get older. So Trout will never perform equal to or greater than last year.

 

I don't think he is entirely wrong. Braun is past what is considered a players prime and it is an assumption a player will decline at that point. When you go and sign a player, trade for them, or extend them you are going to assume they will decline in their 30s. Maybe they don't and maybe he randomly has a huge year after a couple average ones. Anything is possible, but when sticking a value on a player you are going to expect a decline in the 30s. That is without considering his injuries which could also effect him, but I will leave that out in this argument.

 

It isn't something you look at on a year by year basis. For instance him claiming Braun will be worse next year because he is older, but over say a 5 year span you can comfortably say there will be some kind of notable decline in there.

[brewcrewdue80]

Boomer said:

If Bundy shows that he pitch to a sub 4 ERA and 150 innings in 2017, he will be worth a ton as a trade chip, certainly more than Braun would if they hold on to him past 2017. The Brewers are in a somewhat unique position where they can develop him at the major league level because who cares what he does or doesnt do this year?

 

Again, I am not suggesting he be the prime target in a trade, but merely an interesting piece to add and if we can unload Brauns contract and pick up someone of his potential, that is what a team in our position does. Unless you want to ride Braun into the ground paying him top dollar to hit in the 3 hole for a very bad team the next 3 years?

 

 

 

Boomer, Bundy has pitched a grand total of 167Innings since drafted. 103.2 of them happened way back in 2012 before missing all of 2013 to TJ. So he's pitched 63 innings in 3seasons.

I will jump off a roof if he pitched 150innings as Professional for some team in 2017. It's not happening. He's not going to throw 46.1 more innings than he's ever pitched after just 63IP in the 1st two years after TJ. And that's the point. If you believe Bundy can get 150 by 2017, Matt Garza can throw 240IP this season. That's how big a leap it'd be for Bundy. Every time Bundy takes to the mound this year past just 50IP will be the first time his TJ arm has gone that far. He's going to get shutdown like all TJ pitchers do at a certain point. My guess was 65IP you start thinking about it. You're talking as a ML SP alternating 4ip/5ip he'd get you to 15Games Started where he crosses that threshold. If he's so great to be, you protect your asset and not overextend his arm. I could envision another 5starts stretching him to90IP as peak best case. That's going on him being healthy over a season. Of course you do that in his 20games started you've asked the bullpen to cover 90IP as well. 80+minimum. Are you trying to win on the season or willing to tax your AL bullpen on a team I believe devoit of an Ace to rest those taxed arms.

 

As someone said, Os best plan will be to DL him, have him go through a minors stint in rehab, fake another injury, give him 30days off. Then restart another rehab stint. Just to hide him off their 25man.

[Mudville9]

I understand what you're saying Brewcrew, but I don't think Boomer is saying Bundy would be the only player coming back. This would probably be way overpaying for Braun, but I think if they offered us Bundy and Jomar Reyes for Braun and $15 million we would probably take that. As far as the 50 IP this year goes, if you stick him in the bullpen you can hide him a bit and hope he can throw 120 next year and see what you have.

 

It's a big risk, I get it, but Bundy has a shot at being ace-ish which is more than you can say for any pitcher the Brewers have in their system right now and maybe as much as pitcher they might draft at #5 this year. If he flames out you can fall back on the fact that you saved cash and got another piece in the deal (hopefully).

[jerichoholicninja]

Bundy has shown zero ability to stay healthy and rarely do pitchers who start out that way find health the rest of their career. While the talent is tantalizing it means nothing when you're on the DL most of the time. I would not give up Braun one for one for Bundy. To me, Bundy would basically be a throw in to any trade with Baltimore.

[Boomer5]

I understand what you're saying Brewcrew, but I don't think Boomer is saying Bundy would be the only player coming back. This would probably be way overpaying for Braun, but I think if they offered us Bundy and Jomar Reyes for Braun and $15 million we would probably take that. As far as the 50 IP this year goes, if you stick him in the bullpen you can hide him a bit and hope he can throw 120 next year and see what you have.

 

It's a big risk, I get it, but Bundy has a shot at being ace-ish which is more than you can say for any pitcher the Brewers have in their system right now and maybe as much as pitcher they might draft at #5 this year. If he flames out you can fall back on the fact that you saved cash and got another piece in the deal (hopefully).

 

That is correct. I dont think anyone feels Bundy will become Clemens by 2017. But...he has ace potential and that is one skill set we dont have anywhere in the system other than maybe Nelson. Guys like that are very rare and if we can get one as an intriguing throw in why not?

[Boomer5]

I have blocked boomer and his insipid anti-Brewer propaganda so it gets really confusing when people respond to his crap.....

 

The guy knows less baseball than a 97 year old Grandmother and should just be left to his own devices so actual Brewer baseball can be discussed

 

 

He might but this is the kind of post that doesn't do anyone any good.

 

Thanks. I think.

 

When discussing trades and the status of the 2016 MLB roster [sarcasm]is there a rulebook I can follow so I know not offend? I mean we all know Ramon Flores is the next Wade Boggs and Davis really didnt hit 20 HR's in Aug and Sep and wasnt under team control for 4 more years, and my favorite, while the team lost 94 games, it wasn't an indication of how good they really are, but what else do I need to know?[/sarcasm]

 

This is an internet message board. And as long as we don't make personal attacks and just state our opinion, even if it isn't universally optimistic, what is the downside? And Id like to point out that I am sure there is some 97 year old grandmother out there that has less baseball knowledge than I do? Seems a bit excessive of a comment?

 

BTW I am a HUGE Brewer fan, but Im also a realistic one. I love the direction the farm system has taken since the 2015 draft and get that the destruction of the MLB roster is for the greater good.

[Boomer5]

Sweet logic. Players get worse as they get older. So Trout will never perform equal to or greater than last year. Got it. Good to know that Braun is a worse player tomorrow than he is today. Braun will have better numbers this year than last year. His final 2yrs he'll still be a solid player because he was never an above average player to begin with - he was elite. Big difference

 

The notion that a 32 year old player with injury and PED issues in the past will get worse as he gets older is somehow a controversial POV to you?

[And That]

The notion that a 32 year old player with injury and PED issues in the past will get worse as he gets older is somehow a controversial POV to you?

Stating it as a fact ("will") is incorrect, yes. Unless you can prove that all 31 year old players get worse as 32 year old players.

 

Plausible, sure. Will? No way of knowing.

[pacopete4]

I have blocked boomer and his insipid anti-Brewer propaganda so it gets really confusing when people respond to his crap.....

 

The guy knows less baseball than a 97 year old Grandmother and should just be left to his own devices so actual Brewer baseball can be discussed

 

 

He might but this is the kind of post that doesn't do anyone any good.

 

Thanks. I think.

 

I didn't want to offend whoever's grandmother he was referring to.

[Boomer5]

The notion that a 32 year old player with injury and PED issues in the past will get worse as he gets older is somehow a controversial POV to you?

Stating it as a fact ("will") is incorrect, yes. Unless you can prove that all 31 year old players get worse as 32 year old players.

 

Plausible, sure. Will? No way of knowing.

 

This was my statement:

 

With the thumb and back there is no way he will play even at 2015 levels for the entire balance of his contract. Maybe the next two years but certainly not all 5. Im not a doctor but in the no ped era, players get worse as they get older, not better. Therefore every day we have him, is a day less of production to the market.

 

It is pretty darn clear that my comment is that he will get worse as he gets older over the life of the contract. What in the world is controversial about that?

 

For what its worth re 2016, ZIPS has him at 2.5 WAR and Steamer at 2.0 WAR. Fangraphs had his 2015 season at 2.8.

[Boomer5]

I didn't want to offend whoever's grandmother he was referring to. [laughing]

 

Nor would I!

[And That]

What in the world is controversial about that?

It's not controversial, it's stating an absolute as fact. Again, there's no way of knowing.

 

Over a long enough timeline, yes, it is very likely a player will get worse as he gets older. It's almost a given that 97 year old Braun will be worse than 32 year old Braun. But in the short-term, it is unreasonable to suggest that a 36 year old will definitely, assuredly be worse than a 32 year old.

 

Also, what exactly is "worse" - what if he is cumulatively more productive in the next 5 years than he was in the previous 5 years? Is he still worse if he tails off at the end?

 

Edit: To clarify the last sentance...

 

Braun's fWAR the previous 5 seasons: 2.8, .7, 1.6, 7.3, 7.1 = 19.5 WAR, or 3.9 WAR per year.

 

What if his next five seasons turned out to be: 6.0, 5.6, 4.5, 2.5, 1? = 19.6 WAR, or 3.92 WAR per year. Not completely out of the realm of possibility, especially with him moving back to left field. Or if traded to an AL team/the NL adopts it, DH.

 

Which is worse?

 

Or, if you prefer, he has a 2.8 fWAR last year. Same hypothetical next five seasons as above. Is he worse just because he's worse the last two years? Or isn't it a net gain for the Brewers (or whichever club he's playing for)?

[Boomer5]

What in the world is controversial about that?

It's not controversial, it's stating an absolute as fact. Again, there's no way of knowing.

 

Over a long enough timeline, yes, it is very likely a player will get worse as he gets older. It's almost a given that 97 year old Braun will be worse than 32 year old Braun. But in the short-term, it is unreasonable to suggest that a 36 year old will definitely, assuredly be worse than a 32 year old.

 

Also, what exactly is "worse" - what if he is cumulatively more productive in the next 5 years than he was in the previous 5 years? Is he still worse if he tails off at the end?

 

Really? Its "almost" a given that a 97 year old Braun will be worse than a 32 Braun year old.

 

Almost? So you're still not willing to go out on that limb, huh?

 

As for your thoughts on him being more productive the next 5 vs the last 5, you're going to need to show some links that suggest Ryan Braun will do that. Because it sounds like you are taking statistically unlikely events to prove a pretty shaky point. Doesn't seem like a strong position?

 

Here is mine for my somehow someway controversial POV:

 

The Quick Opinion: A resurgence in 2015 was halted by back problems near the end of the year requiring surgery. Braun proved he could still play at a high level, but his days as an elite-level hitting outfielder are likely over.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3410&position=OF

[And That]

Here is mine for my somehow someway controversial POV:

 

The Quick Opinion: A resurgence in 2015 was halted by back problems near the end of the year requiring surgery. Braun proved he could still play at a high level, but his days as an elite-level hitting outfielder are likely over.

 

Braun was really only ever elite for a few years. If he's healthy, all it would take is a few very good years to surpass what he's done recently.

 

Notice how they used the word "likely."

[MrTPlush]

Braun's fWAR the previous 5 seasons: 2.8, .7, 1.6, 7.3, 7.1 = 19.5 WAR, or 3.9 WAR per year.

 

Including his 2013 season in which he was suspended for the majority of is misleading. Depending on where you are getting your information from that means his WAR per season is more like 4.4 to 4.7 a season.

[And That]

Because it sounds like you are taking statistically unlikely events to prove a pretty shaky point. Doesn't seem like a strong position?

Didn't see this...

 

I'm not trying to prove any point. Braun might be better, might well be worse. I don't really even care that much about it. But I've easily disproven your proclamation that Braun "will" be worse. Worse isn't even really defined. So that's a blatantly false (you're fond of using the word controversial, apparently) and unprovable statement.

[Outlander]

Because it sounds like you are taking statistically unlikely events to prove a pretty shaky point. Doesn't seem like a strong position?

Didn't see this...

 

I'm not trying to prove any point. Braun might be better, might well be worse. I don't really even care that much about it. But I've easily disproven your proclamation that Braun "will" be worse. Worse isn't even really defined. So that's a blatantly false (you're fond of using the word controversial, apparently) and unprovable statement.

No you have not, that is an absolute statement that I do not agree with.

[Boomer5]

Because it sounds like you are taking statistically unlikely events to prove a pretty shaky point. Doesn't seem like a strong position?

Didn't see this...

 

I'm not trying to prove any point. Braun might be better, might well be worse. I don't really even care that much about it. But I've easily disproven your proclamation that Braun "will" be worse. Worse isn't even really defined. So that's a blatantly false (you're fond of using the word controversial, apparently) and unprovable statement.

 

There is no reasonable argument to be made that will assume Braun will be a better player the next 5 years than the previous 5.

[brewerfan82]

Because it sounds like you are taking statistically unlikely events to prove a pretty shaky point. Doesn't seem like a strong position?

Didn't see this...

 

I'm not trying to prove any point. Braun might be better, might well be worse. I don't really even care that much about it. But I've easily disproven your proclamation that Braun "will" be worse. Worse isn't even really defined. So that's a blatantly false (you're fond of using the word controversial, apparently) and unprovable statement.

No you have not, that is an absolute statement that I do not agree with.

 

You don't agree with his statement about absolute statements being unprovable because it's an absolute statement?

[Mudville9]

Only the Sith deal in absolutes.

[Roderick]

Only the Sith deal in absolutes.

 

You must be a Sith to make that type of absolute statement.

 

Deja vu.

[brewcrewdue80]

Bundy may have the Ace stuff if puts it together but when do you reap that. Soft guessing 65-80IP this year. Year 1. You get 30-35 additional innings so 95-115IP Year 2 125-150 year 3 155-185 Arb 1 185-220 Arb 2. He's traded then if he happened to avoid injuries his final year team control when he'd finally reached Ace numbers. Ask Brett Anderson how avoiding injuries is working out for him? Prime example of talent that never takes the field when you need him. 1 3-5months Anderson type injury wipes out a year of that Aggressive Innings rise. I see it being Milwaukee never gets 1full season of him starting. And needing an injury during those 2 Arb seasons to last for Playoffs. How long does he maintain his stuff, and velocity? 93 becomes 90 that 5th year. So he's got that to overcome not losing too. He's publicly rated #1prospect by BA. He won't be a piece thrown in a trade.

[monty57]

But I've easily disproven your proclamation that Braun "will" be worse.

 

Here's my take...

 

I think Braun needs to prove himself healthy, because if he's healthy, he should be productive for the next couple of seasons before he is likely to start going downhill due to age. I think that a healthy Braun has decent trade value right now, but if the Brewers don't trade him in the next year or so, I'm worried that he won't have much trade value, as they will likely be paying too much for his production when he's in his mid-30's.