Dylan Bundy

[And That]

With the thumb and back there is no way he will play even at 2015 levels for the entire balance of his contract. Maybe the next two years but certainly not all 5.

The Brewers are in all likelihood going to have to eat some or most of the back end of the contract in a trade (and maybe even un-defer the deferrals to facilitate waiving his no-trade clause), making it more or less a future sunk cost. Based on the assumption that they're going to pay for him to some degree whether they have him or not, I don't know how much Braun's potential production in 2019 and 2020 really matters to the Brewers, in terms of value.

 

What does matter to the Brewers right now is, he's coming off back surgery and they have to see how his thumb holds up. Much for the same reason no one has yet traded for Lucroy, other teams want to see Braun produce when healthy. Right now, no one has. Therefore if Braun does show he is still the same guy he was last year, his trade value goes up once he plays.

 

If another team thinks that Braun will produce at a high level for a few years, they'll pay the price for that production, assuming the Brewers shoulder some (most?) of the responsibility for when that production is likely to tail off.

 

The Brewers should absolutely not trade Braun just to trade him. That would be tanking. Which is not what they're doing. Which is why he's still on the team.

[Boomer5]

With the thumb and back there is no way he will play even at 2015 levels for the entire balance of his contract. Maybe the next two years but certainly not all 5.

The Brewers are in all likelihood going to have to eat some or most of the back end of the contract in a trade (and maybe even un-defer the deferrals to facilitate waiving his no-trade clause), making it more or less a future sunk cost. Based on the assumption that they're going to pay for him to some degree whether they have him or not, I don't know how much Braun's potential production in 2019 and 2020 really matters to the Brewers, in terms of value.

 

What does matter to the Brewers right now is, he's coming off back surgery and they have to see how his thumb holds up. Much for the same reason no one has yet traded for Lucroy, other teams want to see Braun produce when healthy. Right now, no one has. Therefore if Braun does show he is still the same guy he was last year, his trade value goes up once he plays.

 

If another team thinks that Braun will produce at a high level for a few years, they'll pay the price for that production, assuming the Brewers shoulder some (most?) of the responsibility for when that production is likely to tail off.

 

The Brewers should absolutely not trade Braun just to trade him. That would be tanking. Which is not what they're doing. Which is why he's still on the team.

 

Khris Davis and his 20 HRs in Aug/Sep and 4 years of team control says hello.

 

That being said, as soon as Braun shows he is healthy, he will be traded assuming the market wants him. How much of the contract they pick up is based on the return. I assume with a Bundy because of his situation(s) that we wouldnt have to pick up much if any.

[brewerfan82]

 

And that is why he is still on this team. Not one single team wants to give up anything for him. The value does not exist.

 

To be devil's advocate, with that logic, Lucroy doesn't have value either then (which obviously isn't true). Coming off surgery, I'm sure, regardless of how fair his contract is or isn't, teams are going to want to see he's healthy before there's even the possibility of someone making a move for him. Until then, it's hard to speculate interest level based solely on the fact that he hasn't been moved yet.

 

Luc is younger, plays borderline gold glove D at a position of huge need, doesnt have a $95M anvil tied to him. He is many many many times the value of Braun right now.

 

That was my point. It's obvious Lucroy has a ton of value and he hasn't been traded yet, so it's silly to say that Braun doesn't have value just because he hasn't been moved to another team at this point.

[And That]

it's silly to say that Braun doesn't have value just because he hasn't been moved to another team at this point.

 

[nihilism]All players are valueless because they play on teams.[/nihilism]

[brewcrewdue80]

See, the fiasco is how will the Os handle Bundy. I'm thinking Sean Nolin he gets waived or traded but not for anything better than a #4SP/Swingman type of reliever. They have 0power in trade talks. You keep Mr. Bundy and his 10-40IP arm on your ML roster or waive him.

 

Why trade for him? His ceiling? He's dead-weight on a ML 25man for at least 2 seasons. So you waive him and try to outright him to the minors? Wrong he's getting claimed. The more I think of his situation the less I'd consider even trading. But to consider Braun or Lucroy to get him is ignoring Bundys last 4years and trying to relive his draft value as his trade value.

I'm thinking Bundy will be lucky to have 250IP through Brauns 2020contract end. Not 800+ to create maybe equal value or better than Braun.

 

Bundy is not an elite trade chip. He is just a trade chip and a flawed one. In a package for Luc at best he is the third asset id want back.

 

Braun is a different category because he is not a major trade chip due to contract and injuries. Id only look at Bundy in a return if it means the Brewers dont pay a nickel of Brauns deal and they get something else of value in the deal.

 

Why trade for Bundy? He has ace potential, which is something we really dont have in the system. He would probably be Wang for the 2016 Brewers but who cares? The Brewers arent contending for anything but the Number 1 pick so I really dont care if he pitches at all IF it means he is on his way to realizing some of his potential down the road.

 

The problem as to having Ace potential, is he has no place to harness that potential except at the ML level. How likely is that when he's going to have 60-75 IP limits raised by 30IP a season? You're talking Year 6 of team control if we're lucky to see 30+GS of Ace potential. I just think he's facing a long uphill battle just to get to the 30Games starting ability much less showing Ace in his performances. Damaged goods that need to hold together at least 4 years to reach that type of player. He'll be ripe for 2nd TJ likelihood about then.

And to me, Ace is somebody who pitched 220+IP for a team. 185 isn't Ace even if he's got under a 3.25ERA. There's just going to be such an innings limit problem while having to remain on a 25man roster that a team is going to put him in the bullpen. Pitching to 1-5batters isn't going to lead to a burdgeoning ace.

[Mudville9]

See, the fiasco is how will the Os handle Bundy. I'm thinking Sean Nolin he gets waived or traded but not for anything better than a #4SP/Swingman type of reliever. They have 0power in trade talks. You keep Mr. Bundy and his 10-40IP arm on your ML roster or waive him.

 

Why trade for him? His ceiling? He's dead-weight on a ML 25man for at least 2 seasons. So you waive him and try to outright him to the minors? Wrong he's getting claimed. The more I think of his situation the less I'd consider even trading. But to consider Braun or Lucroy to get him is ignoring Bundys last 4years and trying to relive his draft value as his trade value.

I'm thinking Bundy will be lucky to have 250IP through Brauns 2020contract end. Not 800+ to create maybe equal value or better than Braun.

 

Bundy is not an elite trade chip. He is just a trade chip and a flawed one. In a package for Luc at best he is the third asset id want back.

 

Braun is a different category because he is not a major trade chip due to contract and injuries. Id only look at Bundy in a return if it means the Brewers dont pay a nickel of Brauns deal and they get something else of value in the deal.

 

Why trade for Bundy? He has ace potential, which is something we really dont have in the system. He would probably be Wang for the 2016 Brewers but who cares? The Brewers arent contending for anything but the Number 1 pick so I really dont care if he pitches at all IF it means he is on his way to realizing some of his potential down the road.

 

*Mic drop* Agreed

[MrTPlush]

but I'm not giving him away either.

 

And that is why he is still on this team. Not one single team wants to give up anything for him. The value does not exist.

 

To be devil's advocate, with that logic, Lucroy doesn't have value either then (which obviously isn't true). Coming off surgery, I'm sure, regardless of how fair his contract is or isn't, teams are going to want to see he's healthy before there's even the possibility of someone making a move for him. Until then, it's hard to speculate interest level based solely on the fact that he hasn't been moved yet.

 

No because they are completely different players they want to trade. One is old, crippled, and expensive. The other is in their prime and cheap.

 

Lucroy is still on the team because no one has offered the value they want. Braun is on this team because(as rumored) no one will give prospects for him. Teams only want him as a salary dump.

[gregmag]

That would be tanking. Which is not what they're doing. Which is why he's still on the team.

 

Khris Davis and his 20 HRs in Aug/Sep and 4 years of team control says hello.

 

Domingo Santana and his 2.5 WAR ZiPS projection say hello back at you, and then Khris Davis and his 0.8 WAR ZiPS projection say goodbye. Or if you prefer Steamer, Davis (1.3) and Santana (1.4) exchange mutual pleasantries.

 

You're going to keep insisting that the Brewers are tanking no matter how many knock-down arguments people throw at your biases, and that's fine. But if the Brewers were tanking, the most useful predictive evidence we have tells us that making a trade whose consequence for this year's team is to replace Davis in the lineup with Santana would be at most irrelevant and at worst harmful to the Great Tanking Conspiracy.

[MrTPlush]

It has been reported the Brewers would like to trade Braun. Of course that was prior to the Khris Davis trade...so maybe it isnt that strong anymore or maybe that had little effect.

 

Either way wanting to trade Braun is common sense. Just because we can afford to pay him $100mil doesn't mean we should. This is a business first and Braun is a massive expense. What does Braun even provide at this point? What is the risk? Upsetting a small portion of the fan base for a little while? It isn't a question of if they want to trade him, but how badly. To this point it seems like they won't just dump the salary, but want something of note in return at the least.

 

I get it as fans we don't care if Attanasio and Co. drop $20mil a year for Braun, but as the person spending the money it is a much different story.

[stoutdude04]

Plush, is it possible that Stearns sees value in Braun and knows he is still a productive player at a 'reasonable' cost? In my eyes, Braun is still productive and thus has value. Also, has there actually been anything written or said by someone within or close to the organization that said they hoped to trade Braun? I havent seen anything besides talking heads saying they should look to unload him because they are rebuilding. Thanks.

[reillymcshane]

I have not seen any articles indicating Brewers would love to trade Braun but there have been twitter comments or one sentence blurbs in larger articles indicating that but nothing of substance.

I'll second this statement. I don't have links, but as noted above, these are comments in articles, generally in the 'Brewers would love to trade Braun, but little value at this time' vein.

[And That]

I get it as fans we don't care if Attanasio and Co. drop $20mil a year for Braun, but as the person spending the money it is a much different story.

First, they aren't "dropping" $20 million a year. There's a bunch of deferred money. Already been discussed.

 

Second, of course it's not our money, but the ultimate goal of LLC ownership is generally not yearly cash flow (except maybe the Wilpons), it is increasing the valuation of the business. How does having a $30-$40 mil payroll help the long term valuation of the team, if the only reason payroll is getting that low is just because? They should only be trading Braun for commensurate value.

 

Also, if the Brewers turn a huge profit, there's a huge tax hit for all of the owners. Sometimes it's actually better for the owners of the LLC to have the LLC make less income. To that end, the Brewers probably have a baseline payroll they'd like to maintain based on attendance forecasts. We obviously are not privy to their books, but based on attendance of 2 million, I'd be surprised if it were as low as $30 mil.

[MrTPlush]

The one more substantial rumor happened back in early January:

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/milwaukee-brewers-ryan-braun-trade-rumors-mlb-hot-stove-011116

 

Obviously no one in the organization is going to have a press release about how they want to trade Braun and save millions of dollars. They are going to be minor rumors without a stated source...just like 99% of rumors released.

[brewerfan82]

And that article got it from the following blurb by Tom Haudricort in this article: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/what-the-brewers-starting-lineup-would-look-like-if-opening-day-were-tomorrow-b99647430z1-364593341.html

 

Truth be told, the Brewers would not hesitate to move Braun and his five-year, $105 million contract extension that kicks in next year if a sensible offer surfaced. The baggage accumulated in recent years with his PED scandal and health issues, as well as significant no-trade protection in his contract, make a trade unlikely at this point, however.

So still nothing overly substantial.

[MrTPlush]

What exactly do you expect? David Stearns to come to your door step and say it? A rumor is a rumor. Rumor plus the fact it makes total sense to trade him gets you what...? Something that is probably true...

 

Of course it could be false like any rumor. However usually we assume they are true on here for the sake of discussion.

[splitterpfj]

"Old, crippled, and expensive" .... come on man.

 

Braun has a big contract, but he doesn't have a ridiculous, Albert Pujols contract. Braun is at the point of coming out of his prime, but he is not nearing retirement for gosh sakes, and crippled .... you're kidding me. Braun just put up a season with 25 home runs and 24 steals, I doubt he'll be applying for disability payments.

 

Plush, you have a very negative view on Braun, and that's fine, but I really think you're undervaluing what he still is as a player, especially at a time when pitching is dominating the game.

 

I really don't believe Braun's contract will be an impediment to trading him, as long as he is productive this season. I also don't believe the PED thing will stop everybody .... some teams maybe, but not everybody. It's funny how St Louis fans shredded Braun, as their team signed Jhonny Peralta.

 

The biggest thing is the back surgery, teams will wait and see how Braun looks, and who can blame anyone for that? On the Brewers' side, it's kind of the same thing, they need him to show the back is ok, so they can properly value him as well. If Braun is the player he was just last season, there literally isn't a team in the big leagues that wouldn't benefit by having him in their lineup.

 

Watch the back, that will determine his value, and then watch how much the no-trade comes in to play - those things will determine what the return can be.

[brewerfan82]

What exactly do you expect? David Stearns to come to your door step and say it? A rumor is a rumor. Rumor plus the fact it makes total sense to trade him gets you what...? Something that is probably true...

 

The point is that you still don't have much evidence that if Braun shows he's healthy and productive that he doesn't have any trade value. Despite your assertion that "It has been rumored by multiple people/sources that the Brewers would love to trade Braun," you've provided no rumors that he's being actively shopped at this point and with his recent back surgery there is no reason for another team to inquire about him until he proves healthy. Similar to Lucroy, why would you trade Braun at a discount now when you just need him to show he's healthy and productive for half a season. So no, I don't agree that it makes "total sense" to try to trade him right now.

 

Just because he's not being shopped now and teams haven't offered a "sensible" trade package for him, doesn't mean he doesn't have value. I have little doubt that if he's OPS'ing .850+ with 15 homeruns and 10 stolen bases at the break that we could get something of value from a contender for him.

[MrTPlush]

I don't have a negative view I just see his trade value as what it is.

 

-His entire contract is in the mid 30s.

-It is large...not massive, but not something you gamble on.

-He is crippled. His thumb is a constant issue and back issues usually end up being the same. Any team acquiring him almost can assure he will deal with injuries every year. Very concerning

 

Maybe one of those issues by itself isn't too bad, but when you have them all going on at once that is a big risk. Braun could regain value. Possibly with a completely healthy season(maybe a half year if a team is desperate), but even then his value won't be something that will get us a really nice prospect(think Phillips/Hader level). I sure won't bet on him playing the 150 games he needs to really add some value. He has not shown to be healthy for quite awhile now and I don't expect that to change.

 

I never said it made total sense to trade him right now. I said it makes sense to trade him because of the money...never gave some kind of timeline. I never even said they were shopping him. All I said is they would love to trade him if they could. If they could save the money and get a decent prospect he would be gone fast.

[Boomer5]

See, the fiasco is how will the Os handle Bundy. I'm thinking Sean Nolin he gets waived or traded but not for anything better than a #4SP/Swingman type of reliever. They have 0power in trade talks. You keep Mr. Bundy and his 10-40IP arm on your ML roster or waive him.

 

Why trade for him? His ceiling? He's dead-weight on a ML 25man for at least 2 seasons. So you waive him and try to outright him to the minors? Wrong he's getting claimed. The more I think of his situation the less I'd consider even trading. But to consider Braun or Lucroy to get him is ignoring Bundys last 4years and trying to relive his draft value as his trade value.

I'm thinking Bundy will be lucky to have 250IP through Brauns 2020contract end. Not 800+ to create maybe equal value or better than Braun.

 

Bundy is not an elite trade chip. He is just a trade chip and a flawed one. In a package for Luc at best he is the third asset id want back.

 

Braun is a different category because he is not a major trade chip due to contract and injuries. Id only look at Bundy in a return if it means the Brewers dont pay a nickel of Brauns deal and they get something else of value in the deal.

 

Why trade for Bundy? He has ace potential, which is something we really dont have in the system. He would probably be Wang for the 2016 Brewers but who cares? The Brewers arent contending for anything but the Number 1 pick so I really dont care if he pitches at all IF it means he is on his way to realizing some of his potential down the road.

 

The problem as to having Ace potential, is he has no place to harness that potential except at the ML level. How likely is that when he's going to have 60-75 IP limits raised by 30IP a season? You're talking Year 6 of team control if we're lucky to see 30+GS of Ace potential. I just think he's facing a long uphill battle just to get to the 30Games starting ability much less showing Ace in his performances. Damaged goods that need to hold together at least 4 years to reach that type of player. He'll be ripe for 2nd TJ likelihood about then.

And to me, Ace is somebody who pitched 220+IP for a team. 185 isn't Ace even if he's got under a 3.25ERA. There's just going to be such an innings limit problem while having to remain on a 25man roster that a team is going to put him in the bullpen. Pitching to 1-5batters isn't going to lead to a burdgeoning ace.

 

If Bundy shows that he pitch to a sub 4 ERA and 150 innings in 2017, he will be worth a ton as a trade chip, certainly more than Braun would if they hold on to him past 2017. The Brewers are in a somewhat unique position where they can develop him at the major league level because who cares what he does or doesnt do this year?

 

Again, I am not suggesting he be the prime target in a trade, but merely an interesting piece to add and if we can unload Brauns contract and pick up someone of his potential, that is what a team in our position does. Unless you want to ride Braun into the ground paying him top dollar to hit in the 3 hole for a very bad team the next 3 years?

[Boomer5]

That would be tanking. Which is not what they're doing. Which is why he's still on the team.

 

Khris Davis and his 20 HRs in Aug/Sep and 4 years of team control says hello.

 

Domingo Santana and his 2.5 WAR ZiPS projection say hello back at you, and then Khris Davis and his 0.8 WAR ZiPS projection say goodbye. Or if you prefer Steamer, Davis (1.3) and Santana (1.4) exchange mutual pleasantries.

 

You're going to keep insisting that the Brewers are tanking no matter how many knock-down arguments people throw at your biases, and that's fine. But if the Brewers were tanking, the most useful predictive evidence we have tells us that making a trade whose consequence for this year's team is to replace Davis in the lineup with Santana would be at most irrelevant and at worst harmful to the Great Tanking Conspiracy.

 

The beauty about sports is we dont have to argue about it, the results will be on the field. The team will be bad, and in fact, VERY bad the next 2-3 years and the Brewers will be picking very high in the draft. Call it what you want at that point.

[MrTPlush]

Does anyone really know how Dylan Bundy is doing these days? If he is still throwing some nasty stuff like he did prior to injury I could see taking some type of gamble on him(not necessarily giving up Braun). However he just got injured again last fall...is he pitching off a mound right now? 100%?

 

Really hard to give an opinion on Bundy because I am not a scout and have not watched him pitch. For all I know he is throwing 88mph.

[billymac]

Throwing off the mound and in the intrasquad game a few days ago, struck out Wieters and Davis...

 

http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/orioles-dylan-bundy-good-intrasquad-appearance/

[MrTPlush]

Throwing off the mound and in the intrasquad game a few days ago, struck out Wieters and Davis...

 

http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/orioles-dylan-bundy-good-intrasquad-appearance/

 

Thanks for the link.

 

Gut tells me he starts the season on the roster until they can find an excuse to DL him...then have him rehab in the minors. Similar to what we did to Wang.

[Boomer5]

Throwing off the mound and in the intrasquad game a few days ago, struck out Wieters and Davis...

 

http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/orioles-dylan-bundy-good-intrasquad-appearance/

 

Thanks. At least he is pitching.

[BrewCrew8682]

That would be tanking. Which is not what they're doing. Which is why he's still on the team.

 

Khris Davis and his 20 HRs in Aug/Sep and 4 years of team control says hello.

 

Domingo Santana and his 2.5 WAR ZiPS projection say hello back at you, and then Khris Davis and his 0.8 WAR ZiPS projection say goodbye. Or if you prefer Steamer, Davis (1.3) and Santana (1.4) exchange mutual pleasantries.

 

You're going to keep insisting that the Brewers are tanking no matter how many knock-down arguments people throw at your biases, and that's fine. But if the Brewers were tanking, the most useful predictive evidence we have tells us that making a trade whose consequence for this year's team is to replace Davis in the lineup with Santana would be at most irrelevant and at worst harmful to the Great Tanking Conspiracy.

 

The beauty about sports is we dont have to argue about it, the results will be on the field. The team will be bad, and in fact, VERY bad the next 2-3 years and the Brewers will be picking very high in the draft. Call it what you want at that point.

 

If a team offered 25 potential future all-stars in AA in return for your entire Major League team (assuming they were a good team), would that be tanking? Just because it likely makes your team worse in the upcoming season? Does the actual intent (not a higher draft pick for the 1 season before they are ready) not matter at all? Tremendous exaggeration, but the point stands.

 

Also, if Stearns wants the first pick so bad, why hasn't my phone rang? Clearly he must know I could do light-years more to hurt this team than Santana or Carter. And I'd come about $2 million cheaper too! A lot players he brought in are long shots, but there are those without a shot at all. Why risk the chance that someone steps up and ruins everything?