Dylan Bundy

[gregmag]

Yeah, I really don't get the Davis hate. It's a classic case of overemphasizing a player's weaknesses and underemphasizing his strengths. As others have pointed out, Davis hits home runs at an elite level and draws a decent and growing number of walks. He has decent range in LF. He's cheap and controllable. But he has a terrible arm, and he hits .250 because he strikes out a lot, which for some people is enough to erase what he does well. You can keep saying he's replacement level until your face turns blue, but that won't make it accurate.

 

As for Bundy, I'm with the skeptics. I agree that we should be acquiring high-upside players. But a pitcher with major, recent injury damage is the worst kind of high-upside player to bet on. I'd much prefer, for example, a standout, healthy A-ball pitcher who at least has a chance to make it through the worst of the high-risk-for-injury part of his development.

[CheezWizHed]

Can anyone think of a comparable player to Bundy that has been traded? Just trying to think about how other GMs may value a high ceiling/injury risk player. I don't know Bundy personally. How about Ben McDonald? - Never mind. He was non-tendered, not traded.

 

Fiers was a "less-than replacement player" in the eyes of many until he was traded and threw a no-hitter. Khrush is similar. Not a perennial all-star player, but certainly over replacement level. Especially in this deadball era.

[A Swing and A Drive]

While I'll admit to undervaluing Khris Davis, I think others are overvaluing him, especially when trading him makes a ton of sense from an organizational depth perspective as well.

 

Dylan Bundy is a risk but has the upside of a #1 starter, with a true ace caliber arm. (when healthy)

 

Khris Davis has a more limited upside at a position (corner OF) that could easily be filled from within or with an affordable free agent.

 

From MLB.coms top 30 Brewer prospects, here are the Brewers OF prospects and SP prospects:

 

OF

2. Brett Phillips OF

3. Trent Clark OF

4. Tyrone Taylor OF

6. Clint Coutler OF

11. Monte Harrison OF

17. Michael Reed OF

19. Demi Omimoloye OF

22. Victor Roache OF

23. Kyle Wren OF

30. Roman Flores OF

 

SP

7. Devin Williams RHP

8. Jorge Lopez RHP

9. Kodi Medeiros LHP

10. Zach Davies RHP

13. Nathan Kirby LHP

14. Josh Hader LHP

15. Tyler Wagner RHP

16. Taylor Williams RHP

21. Marcos Diplan RHP

24. Miguel Diaz RHP

26. Tyler Cravy RHP

28. Adrian Houser RHP

29. Cody Ponce RHP

 

If you insert Dylan Bundy into this system, he has a higher ceiling than any starter in our system.

(followed by Medeiros, Kirby, Hader, Diplan, Lopez, and Ponce, IMO)

 

If you look at the value of #1 and #2 starting as compared with corner OF on the current free agent market, I'm sure you'll see where the true value lies amongst MLB GMs....Top of the Rotation Starting Pitchers!

[CheezWizHed]

Bundy is an interesting player and an interesting "problem".

- TJ surgery in 2013

- Right Lat strain in 2014

- Mysterious calcium deposit in his shoulder for 2015.

 

He has only put in 63.1 innings since this TJ surgery. But at 23, he just left the "injury nexus". Scouts still see three plus pitches with a possible fourth in the AFL.

 

If the Brewers did get him, you would need to build him up as a reliever this year. Maybe he could start in extended spring training to build up his arm a bit first. I'm not sure what I would give up in a trade, but he is interesting. Maybe the major piece in a Lind trade?

 

Edit:

If you look at the value of #1 and #2 starting as compared with corner OF on the current free agent market, I'm sure you'll see where the true value lies amongst MLB GMs....Top of the Rotation Starting Pitchers!

 

No kidding a #1 SP beats out a starting OF. But a starting OF beats out a pitcher out of baseball...

 

You can't treat Bundy as any other prospect. He

1) Needs to be pitching at the MLB level this year. No way to develop him.

2) Has VERY limited innings since his TJ surgery.

3) Has two other injuries since his TJ.

 

Its not his ceiling, its the chance of actually reaching it that have people saying Khris is too much for Bundy.

[MrTPlush]

First thought our need for a SP or our lack of need for an OFer doesn't effect Khris Davis' value. Why should we expect less because it makes sense to trade him?

 

Regarding the thought of adding FAa similar to him...how much does a 120 OPS+ corner outfielder with 30+ homerun power make on the FA market? If Khris Davis, depending on that years market, could probably get 4/$50mil and probably more. People like their power these days. Khris Davis probably wont earn $20mil in the next 4 years.

[3and2Fastball]

If you insert Dylan Bundy into this system, he has a higher ceiling than any starter in our system.

(followed by Medeiros, Kirby, Hader, Diplan, Lopez, and Ponce, IMO)

 

If you look at the value of #1 and #2 starting as compared with corner OF on the current free agent market, I'm sure you'll see where the true value lies amongst MLB GMs....Top of the Rotation Starting Pitchers!

 

 

Awesome post, "Swing and a Drive", I hope you'll post here more often.

 

I agree that Starting Pitchers tend to be the most highly valued of all baseball players. However, I don't know if Bundy still can be looked at as a potential ace. His ceiling hasn't changed, but the risk level in terms of durability has. I believe there are other pitchers in the Orioles system that the Brewers prize more highly.

 

Sounds like there have been talks between the 2 teams re Lind. Lind for Orioles pitching depth makes sense, it is a matter of sorting out who exactly the return would be from the O's.

[DocLuna7]

In my mind Davis is a huge overpay for Bundy not just because of the injury concerns that come with Bundy (that is huge though) but simply because I think that other GM's will drastically overvalue Davis when and if he is put on the market. At the end of the day all that really matters is what other GM's think he's worth.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Bundy is an interesting player and an interesting "problem".

- TJ surgery in 2013

- Right Lat strain in 2014

- Mysterious calcium deposit in his shoulder for 2015.

 

He has only put in 63.1 innings since this TJ surgery. But at 23, he just left the "injury nexus". Scouts still see three plus pitches with a possible fourth in the AFL.

 

If the Brewers did get him, you would need to build him up as a reliever this year. Maybe he could start in extended spring training to build up his arm a bit first. I'm not sure what I would give up in a trade, but he is interesting. Maybe the major piece in a Lind trade?

 

Edit:

If you look at the value of #1 and #2 starting as compared with corner OF on the current free agent market, I'm sure you'll see where the true value lies amongst MLB GMs....Top of the Rotation Starting Pitchers!

 

No kidding a #1 SP beats out a starting OF. But a starting OF beats out a pitcher out of baseball...

 

You can't treat Bundy as any other prospect. He

1) Needs to be pitching at the MLB level this year. No way to develop him.

2) Has VERY limited innings since his TJ surgery.

3) Has two other injuries since his TJ.

 

Its not his ceiling, its the chance of actually reaching it that have people saying Khris is too much for Bundy.

 

I agree with your assessment. However, my point is that since the Brewers can't (have had a hell of a time) draft starting pitchers that turn into aces, doesn't gambling on one like Bundy make more sense to a rebuilding team as a future asset than a "non-difference" making corner OF?

 

I would say we could afford to continue Bundy's development at the MLB level by giving him a rotation spot for the entire year, even if it means Davies spends the year at AAA until someone gets hurt, or Garza goes to the pen.

[AKCheesehead]

I found it very intriguing to read that some blame our former permed groper Peterson for messing with Bundy's mechanics and possibly contributing to/causing one or more of Bundy's injuries.

 

Count me in the camp of Davis for Bundy is overpay. It could work out well if suddenly Bundy put it all together, but I'd put higher odds on it turning out to be nothing but a terrible, embarrassing stupid shame of a trade.

[MrTPlush]

I agree with your assessment. However, my point is that since the Brewers can't (have had a hell of a time) draft starting pitchers that turn into aces, doesn't gambling on one like Bundy make more sense to a rebuilding team as a future asset than a "non-difference" making corner OF?

 

I would say we could afford to continue Bundy's development at the MLB level by giving him a rotation spot for the entire year, even if it means Davies spends the year at AAA until someone gets hurt, or Garza goes to the pen.

 

No it doesn't really make sense because Khris Davis can get us a better overall player. Sure they might not have the ceiling of Bundy, but what are the odds he can even develop at the MLB level and be an ace? I'd say it is extremely low and the health concerns are very big. I think you are missing the fact he is extremely raw and like you said we suck at developing pitchers? Are we going to magically do that now?

 

The risk is way too much and you are totally missing the fact that it WON'T take Davis to get him. Why do you insist on trading more than you need to? Are you trying to tip the Orioles?

[A Swing and A Drive]

If we can trade less than Khris Davis (just Lind?) to land Dylan Bundy then I'm all for it.

 

However, I will go on record saying, that I predict in five years (in 2021) Dylan Bundy will be an all-star starting pitcher and Khris Davis will be out of baseball. (MLB anyway)

[MrTPlush]

Bold prediction Dylan Bundy never starts 15 games in a MLB season here on out. This guy can't even throw 25 innings without his arm crying for mercy.

[And That]

However, I will go on record saying, that I predict in five years (in 2021) Dylan Bundy will be an all-star starting pitcher and Khris Davis will be out of baseball. (MLB anyway)

I have no doubt someone will dig this up in five years.

[A Swing and A Drive]

However, I will go on record saying, that I predict in five years (in 2021) Dylan Bundy will be an all-star starting pitcher and Khris Davis will be out of baseball. (MLB anyway)

I have no doubt someone will dig this up in five years.

 

Correct. I will. (If I'm alive and the internet still exists-i.e. no zombie apocalypse)

[Outlander]

I hope it is the day after Bundy wins game 7 of the World Series for the Brewers.

[jerichoholicninja]

However, I will go on record saying, that I predict in five years (in 2021) Dylan Bundy will be an all-star starting pitcher and Khris Davis will be out of baseball. (MLB anyway)

 

You forgot to hit the sarcasm button.

[CheezWizHed]

I would say we could afford to continue Bundy's development at the MLB level by giving him a rotation spot for the entire year, even if it means Davies spends the year at AAA until someone gets hurt, or Garza goes to the pen.

 

You would also have his arm falling off. He had barely pitched in two years. At best, he would pitch as a long man out of the pen for a year. Second year, he starts for half the year and goes to the pen half year. Then maybe fully starting in year three. Just to build up his innings. That is if he stays healthy.

 

Yes, the Brewers could put up the SP spot, but Dylan couldn't handle it.

[MrTPlush]

And one single season ending injury in that timeframe and you probably drop him because it isn't worth the constant circus at the MLB level. It would probably take 4 if you ask me. Maybe 50innings next year, then possibly low 100s, then 170innings, and then a full 200+.

 

The more I think about it the less I would give up. Khris Davis for him would be a joke. Lots are pegging him as a mid rotation guy now. Why are we giving anything up for a guy who will take 4 years to hopefully become a mid rotation guy and in our dreams maybe a top of the rotation guy? With great chances of being a crippled mess and never start for half a season.

[superfly]

Serviceable corner OF'ers are a dime a dozen. See - Seth Smith, Ryan Sweeney, Matt Joyce, etc etc etc. Other than contract friendly, you folks are overrating Khris Davis. I like the guy and am happy if he remains a Brewer, but the risk on Bundy is worth a neutral LF'er. Just build the deal around more than a straight up Davis for Bundy trade. IE - maybe try to get Schoop too (Segura/Lind?) Then you have your pretty good RH bat at 2nd to go with Scooter as LH.

[CheezWizHed]

I don't think it's over valuing. It's:

 

100% chance of a good (not great) OFer

Vs.

5% chance a special SP, 25% chance of a good SP, 40% chance of an RP and 30% chance of injuries keeping him from making it.

 

That's a 70% chance of being worse than Davis.

[superfly]

I don't think it's over valuing. It's:

 

100% chance of a good (not great) OFer

Vs.

5% chance a special SP, 25% chance of a good SP, 40% chance of an RP and 30% chance of injuries keeping him from making it.

 

That's a 70% chance of being worse than Davis.

 

30% chance of being straight up better, 40% to push or slightly lose on a 27 year old OF who is likely close to peak value, and 30% chance of a donation. I count maybe 50/50 rather than 30/70 of coming out ahead in the scenario of straight up KD/Bundy. Like I said before, structure a deal so you get more back.

[MrTPlush]

ALL three of those serviceable OFers COMBINED still have less HRs than Khris Davis had last year.

 

Those 3= 20HR in 850 ABs

 

Khris Davis= 55ish if he had 850 ABs

 

I think we found a slight flaw. Serh Smith is the only half decent one. The other two are nothing.

[Boomer5]

I don't think it's over valuing. It's:

 

100% chance of a good (not great) OFer

Vs.

5% chance a special SP, 25% chance of a good SP, 40% chance of an RP and 30% chance of injuries keeping him from making it.

 

That's a 70% chance of being worse than Davis.

 

I think you are being generous. Its 25% he makes it all on the major league level due to injuries.

 

Id take him of course if the price is right because I love prospects, but to trade for him would give us the RH equivalent of Wang until 2017 if that.

[superfly]

ALL three of those serviceable OFers COMBINED still have less HRs than Khris Davis had last year.

 

Those 3= 20HR in 850 ABs

 

Khris Davis= 55ish if he had 850 ABs

 

I think we found a slight flaw. Serh Smith is the only half decent one. The other two are nothing.

 

 

Joyce career (very consistent until a down year last year) :: .242avg / .335obp / .426slg / .761ops ; 10WAR over 8 seasons, about 1.2 a year.

 

Smith career :: .263avg / .344obp / .452slg / .796ops ; 11.2WAR over 9 seasons, about 1.24 a year.

 

Sweeney career :: .276avg / .333obp / .380slg / .713ops ; 6.5WAR over 9 seasons.

 

KHRIS DAVIS 2 full years in the majors :: .250avg / .315obp / .494 slg / .809 ops ; 2.9WAR ; 1.45 a year.

 

 

They aren't all that different...Davis just hits more HR and for a less average. Not that it's a bad thing...I just don't think he's that much different than run of the mill OFs that can be had on the cheap every year.

[CheezWizHed]

Me: 5% chance a special SP, 25% chance of a good SP, 40% chance of an RP and 30% chance of injuries keeping him from making it.

 

Boomer5: I think you are being generous. Its 25% he makes it all on the major league level due to injuries.

 

superfly: 30% chance of being straight up better, 40% to push or slightly lose on a 27 year old OF who is likely close to peak value, and 30% chance of a donation.

 

This further drives home my point. We have some varying opinions on what Bundy could be. And frankly all of us are completely guessing (seeing that none of us know Bundy's health history in detail).

 

Seems that everyone hear feels that Khris is a starting level LFer. Some think he can be a HR king, if healthy. Some think he is closer to replacement level. He isn't being over/undervalued (at least not much).

 

So the biggest variation in opinion is being driven by what we think of Bundy and his chances of success. That just further drives home the risk.

 

I'd be happy to see him come (+?) in a Lind trade. For Khris, he should be a throw-in with a bigger piece(s).