Drafting a college closer

[colbyjack]

Some of the comments in this thread are pretty telling of the Brewers recent (season-long?) struggles in the bullpen. Obviously there hasn't been that one arm that emerged from the '07 draft to vault throught the minors to put in meaningful playing time and establish themselves as a future short-reliever, but the question has never been as glaring as it is right now.

 

So, looking ahead to the 2007 draft, and guessing that the Brewers will lose at least one of Cordero or Linebrink to free agency, meaning the high probability of a couple of extra-picks, would you support the team taking a college closer early, even with their first overall selection, in the hopes that such a player could move quickly and possibility help the big-league team out towards the end of the year? This is assuming there is such a player available for the team's first-round pick of course, as I certainly would not reach for such a player early in the draft, but I think you get my point.

[EbbaStClaire]

I think you continue to take the best player available modified slightly by your need for a position player or a pitcher. A couple of nights ago Kip Wells was throwing 96 mph and had a great breaking ball. Ya, I know Fielder hit one out but Wells still looked good. Maybe the Brewers should look for a failed starter who can relieve and just maybe he may be able to pitch more than one inning.

[GagneCY03]

Some of the comments in this thread are pretty telling of the Brewers recent (season-long?) struggles in the bullpen. Obviously there hasn't been that one arm that emerged from the '07 draft to vault throught the minors to put in meaningful playing time and establish themselves as a future short-reliever, but the question has never been as glaring as it is right now.

 

So, looking ahead to the 2007 draft, and guessing that the Brewers will lose at least one of Cordero or Linebrink to free agency, meaning the high probability of a couple of extra-picks, would you support the team taking a college closer early, even with their first overall selection, in the hopes that such a player could move quickly and possibility help the big-league team out towards the end of the year? This is assuming there is such a player available for the team's first-round pick of course, as I certainly would not reach for such a player early in the draft, but I think you get my point.

 

I think a lot depends on whether or not the Brewers trust Turnbow to go back to closing.

 

I dont think you draft to fill a need; you sacrifice too much in potential value. And I really cant see a reliever being move valuable than a 1st round position player / pitcher.

[CW11]

I dont think you draft to fill a need; you sacrifice too much in potential value. And I really cant see a reliever being move valuable than a 1st round position player / pitcher.

I couldn't agree more. Although in the Majors closers are premium players, they are not premium talents (for me at least) in the draft because I am of the thought that position players and starters carry far more value. I prefer to move starters to closers once they are into their minor league careers.

 

[bjkrautk]

In retrospect (and my willingness to defer research when I suspect someone else already knows), did any college closer from the 2007 draft pitch in the majors this year?

[colbyjack]

Nope. Ross Detwiler made his big league debut for the Nats, but his future role is in the starting rotation.

 

Thanks for the feedback, although I was asking more from a Brewers perspective given the bullpen woes. That doesn't mean I don't appreciate the perspective from fans from other teams. The point was definitely made in a "win-now" context, as I do agree that generally it is not a good idea to try and solve particular, immediate problems through the draft.

 

Gagne, Turnbow better not be closing for the Brewers next year, as he has arguably been the team's biggest problem during the second half of the season.

[GagneCY03]

Gagne, Turnbow better not be closing for the Brewers next year, as he has arguably been the team's biggest problem during the second half of the season.

 

Well, that would definitely give the Brewers a reason to draft a college closer. Is Linebrink expected to re-sign?

[biedergb]

If we draft a closer, then who closes between APril and June. And if it's not someone who can step in right away then why roll the dice?

I think it's an interesting idea, but wanted to play devil's advocate.

[colbyjack]

When I propose (in theory) that the team should drat a college closer, I'm not suggesting that this player would immediately serve as the closer, and it wouldn't effect my decision of what the team should do at the big-league level (as I hope they re-sign Cordero).

 

College closers could just as easily be used as an effective set-up man early in his career.

[biedergb]

When I propose (in theory) that the team should drat a college closer, I'm not suggesting that this player would immediately serve as the closer, and it wouldn't effect my decision of what the team should do at the big-league level (as I hope they re-sign Cordero).

 

College closers could just as easily be used as an effective set-up man early in his career.

OK. My post was more directed as GagneCy03's comment. But again, if we aren't drafting a closer to step in within the year, I guess my question is why risk a first rounder on a one trick pony. If he doesn't pan out as a closer (Wagner, Hansen) you can't convert them to starter. If they are a starter you can always convert them to a closer. My thoughts are a guy like Mike Jones, or even a guy like Mark Rogers, convert them to closers and they (if healthy) could be a year or so away.

I think it's an interesting disucssion, and I'm arguing one side of it to add to the the discussion.

 

[GagneCY03]

If we draft a closer, then who closes between APril and June. And if it's not someone who can step in right away then why roll the dice?

I think it's an interesting idea, but wanted to play devil's advocate.

 

Well, ideally, the guy would be the closer the year after he's drafted (Street, Cordero). Again, this is why I dont like drafting closers, as they wont contribute much, if at all, the year they're drafted. So you'd have to find someone to fill in until they're ready. I mentioned Turnbow, but if management feels the same way about him as CJ, I doubt they'd have confidence in his closing abilities if even in a temporary role.

 

Honestly, I'd think inviting a bunch of NRI's and converting some kids on the farm would be a better bet than spending a first round pick on a closer.

[bjkrautk]

With 6 picks before the end of round 2, and a closer signed to a 1-year contract, I think the Brewers might take a serious look at getting a college closer in the "Mini-Moneyball" draft.

 

 

...and I can't help but wonder what GagneCY03 thinks of the Brewers' new closer.

[colbyjack]

While I've felt a college closer makes a lot of sense for a while now, that a good observation bjkrautk about Gagne only be signed for one year. With him and the rest of the depth Melvin has acquired, in theory there is less of a need to get such a player up to the big leagues as quickly as there was before.

 

The Rockies are a good example of this. They still have Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpas took over the closers role from him this past year, meaning they can be relatively patient with the 8th overall pick from this last year, Casey Weathers, who is poised to start the '08 season at AA and could be with the Rockies by mid-season.

[wcswimmer712]

But most of our pen is only signed through 2008, so drafting a college closer would make sense.

[Never Outhustled]

I guess this thread is relevent again with the re-emergence of Josh Fields, who's dominance this year has him slated as a mid 1st round pick, right in the range where the Brewers select.

 

Fields presently has a 0.00 ERA with an unbelievable 36K in 18.2 innings.

 

As wcswimmer mentions, most of the Brewers bullpen is unsigned for next year. The question is, how quickly can Fields contribute. Theres been a few relievers make positive contributions in the year they were drafted. However, thats what might have been expected when Colorado grabbed Casey Weathers last year with the 8th pick, but he didn't arrive in AA until this year. To me, it was a bad pick by Colorado, as there were some fairly safe high ceiling players available. That might not be the case for the Brewers at #16. I would think Fields is more polished tha Weathers was coming out, as Weathers was a converted OF with just a few years pitching experience.

 

Much like the Brewers selection last year, Fields is a senior, and a Boras client.

[fewgoodcards]

i think fields is the obvious pick there unless you want another high school pitcher.

[colbyjack]

The college baseball resource thread has some discussion concerning Fields, and I also wrote about the bulk of the college closers in my Crack of the Bat column two weeks ago:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/crackthebat/patrick_ebert/2008/collegeclosers.aspx

 

I agree, Fields would be a perfect fit for the Brewers at #16. He's in a similar situation as LaPorta from a year ago, and is also in a somewhat similar situation as Casey Weathers. I'm not so sure that Fields is more polished that Weathers, even if Weathers didn't have as much pitching experience, because it just doesn't seem as though closers need to work on as many things as starters do, and Weathers was equally dominant through this time last year (I don't think he allowed an extra-base hit until May or so IIRC). I saw Weathers almost a year ago today and he was throwing 94-96 with a nearly unhittable slider, and Fields basically has the same kind of stuff and is similar in stature as well (Weathers' body was more filled out than Fields is, who actually looks on the slight side which draws some concerns about his long-term durability).

 

My sleeper for this role remains Aaron Weatherford, who has returned to the field and has just as dominant as Fields (0.00 ERA in 9 appearances, 16.2 IP, 3 H, 33 K, 6 BB) and is also on the shorter side with absolutely electric stuff. Weatherford has the added benefit of being able to throw multiple innings. Fields has enjoyed his success this year largely because Georgia is only using him in 1-inning stints.

 

I'm sure most would agree that with all of the extra picks the Brewers can afford to use one or even two of their early selections on a projected short reliever. I don't know if any of them should be counted on to contribute to open the 2009 season, as that's a little aggressive, but it's been done before (Huston Street, Chad Cordero) with success. Of course, others that have projected to move up quickly in a short relief role (Craig Hansen, Ryan Zimmerman) haven't fared so well.

[colbyjack]

Fields continue to dominate this season as Georgia's closer:

 

1-1, 22 games (all in relief), 0.00 ERA, 13 saves, 23.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 43 K, 12 BB

 

Another Bulldog (Mississippi State), Aaron Weatherford, has been just as dominant this year:

 

2-0, 12 games (all in relief), 0.00 ERA, 4 saves, 21 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 43 K, 6 BB

 

While Weatherford hasn't appeared in as many games (he is used in longer stints than Fields is), Weatherford's numbers are eerily similar to those of Fields'. They're similar in both stature and stuff, and Weatherford is making me look good so far this year after picking him as one of my sleepers. He entered the year as a highly rated prospect, but I really think he's making a case to be taken in the sandwich round. I know several people have commented about how they wouldn't want to take a closer with the team's first pick, and the presence of other solid college closers such as Weatherford reinforces that case if you think you can get a similar player later in the draft.

[Gopher74]

What about taking both Colby? We could take Fields with the 1st pick and Weatherford with a supplemental 1st round pick.

 

Then use the other 4 picks on the best player available, but if we could get two guys who have closers stuff who could be in our bullpen by OD 09, that would really limit the amount of work Doug's got this off-season, and allow us to allocate more resources to re-signing our young players, or whatever else.

 

Given how many question marks we've got for next years pen, Fields and Weatherford would like nice with Stetter, Torres, Shouse, Mota and perhaps Pena or Lyon from the D-backs as our closer.

[colbyjack]

I wouldn't be opposed to that Gopher, but I'm guessing a few others out there would be. For the most part it goes against the grain to take a college closer early, much less two, but I do like the more immediate impact that scenario would present.

[Gopher74]

I wouldn't be opposed to that Gopher, but I'm guessing a few others out there would be. For the most part it goes against the grain to take a college closer early, much less two, but I do like the more immediate impact that scenario would present.

Well I guess with 6 picks, you've still got plenty of picks to use to go after high impact talent. And the guy you get in the supplemental round isn't as likely to contribute if he's a high school player as a college arm who's close to the big leagues.

 

If you could get two good BP arms that could help by OD 09, or in the case of Fields right away, I think you'd have a successful draft. OF course if a guy like Skipworth is around, I'd rather grab him.

 

[rousieboy]

Is Ole Miss's Scott Bittle draft eligible?

[colbyjack]

Yes he is. Bittle has been nasty this spring (see the college baseball resource thread for my brief writeup on him). His signature pitch is a cutter that rivals Mariano Rivera's. Last I looked he had something like 95 or so Ks in just over 50 innings of work.

[rousieboy]

Nice, thank you...with that being said...where do you think Bittle will go? 40-55? Earlier? Later?

 

Also...while i have you here, it seems like a forgone conclusion to me that if Brewer scouts are coaching Hicks...not unlike NFL coaches coaching Hula Bowl or Senior Bowl players...then they know all the in's and out's of him and will be wanting him as the Brewers #1 pick? Yes?

 

Thanks again for the great reads and resources...Rouse

[colbyjack]

40-55 is probably the earliest Bittle would go, unless a team really likes him. While he has nasty offspeed stuff, his fastball sits in the 88-90 range. I really like Bittle, because you can tell he has a tenacious demeanor on the mound, the lack of a true fastball means he doesn't profile as a prototypical closer.

 

As for Hicks, the Brewers involvement with the Area Code Games is interesting, because they've provided the scouts/coaches for the California team since 2003 IIRC, and with another IIRC, I don't believe they have taken any prominent CA prep players outside of Ryan Babineau, who they of course didn't even sign. So while I'm sure the Brewers known Aaron Hicks inside and out, their involvement with him doesn't mean anything based on their recent history.