Brewers I believe will not be traded....

[MadScientist]

Braun is the only player who will definitely not being traded only because of his contract, although if Stearns is willing to eat a significant portion he could net a pretty decent return. My top 5 to trade would be Lucroy (kings ransom), Lind (fringe 100 or solid prospect), Davis (top 100 prospect), Smith (top 10 team prospect) and Segura (high risk/reward prospect). This should bolster our farm system enough to break into the top 10.

Lucroy and Lind definitely and Segura if they get a good match. I'd like them to keep Davis for the year to show what he can do with a full year of healthy play. A 30+ HR guy with 3 years of control should bring a very high return. Smith seems more like a trading deadline piece. Scooter would also be a guy to trade at the deadline, if he has a good first half.

I think Davis has more value now, especially to a team who is looking for a power bat but is currently facing budget constraints (i.e. Toronto). Getting a proven player with 30+ HR potential for the league minimum is huge to these types of teams. I say trade him now while his value is high since i do not see him as a valuable enough piece to keep around while we rebuild. Give his playing time to Santana.

 

I guess the question is will someone this off season pay for Davis like he is one of the top 5 home run hitters in the NL (extrapolating to a full season, or by using AB per HR), and right in his prime. To me that production with his contract should net a better return than a top 100 prospect. Maybe a top 50 plus a high-upside team top 20. If a team will pony up a sizable offer then trade him, otherwise let him play for the Brewers. Barring a serious injury, I don't see his value declining over the next year.

[monty57]

Who won't be traded?

 

I'd say the guys who pitched in the rotation this season except Garza and Peralta are safe. Garza will probably get a half season to try to build up value and will then be either traded or dumped. Peralta could be traded this offseason if Stearns can get a good deal.

 

Santana is safe in the OF. Either Braun or Davis could be traded for the right deal. The Tulo deal tells me that Braun would have more value than most give him credit for, as long as his back is healthy (as it seems to be). Davis should have decent value, especially to AL teams as a DH/OF.

 

In the IF, Gennett will probably be around, as he doesn't have much trade value, and is a good, cheap LH option to pair with one of our RH utility guys. The bench IF (Rogers, Villar) will not be traded, as they wouldn't bring anything back, and could provide stopgap help until better options arise. Lind should be traded this offseason, and Segura would be traded if any deal is there.

 

Now that K-Rod is gone, most of the bullpen should be safe.

 

Any decent minor leaguers we have should be safe, unless they are included in a deal to bring back a big package of prospects (i.e. part of a Lucroy deal for a Gomez/Fiers type of return)

[3and2Fastball]

The Tulo deal tells me that Braun would have more value than most give him credit for, as long as his back is healthy (as it seems to be).

 

Can you elaborate on that please, that is interesting. You mean in terms if trading a long-term contract of a player with injury concerns the Tulo trade shows us that Braun is more tradeable than many think? That's a good point.

 

Tulo, though, being one of the very very few very good hitting/very good fielding Shortstops, seems more rare and worth rolling the dice on.

 

I'm not presuming that you think Braun has the same trade value as Tulo, more that you are saying Braun can be traded, correct?

[MrTPlush]

I get the Tulowitzki comparison, but Tulowitzki is incredibly good at the most premium position in the game. With his production at the position he is at that contract is probably a bargain at $20mil a year. I can't say any of this for Braun. If healthy Braun is a really good player who is probably worth his contract.

 

Problem is Braun now has two BIG injury concerns moving forward. Back problems are always a big concern. We don't know its effects yet, but I would be scared if I was considering a trade for him. Then he has that thumb issue which is a 24/7 365 days a year type problem. I'd be really worried on how he will age as he already has struggles staying on the field.

 

When you start thinking about it there are so many issues with Braun before we even get to the PED past and how that effects his value.

[MNBrew]

Tulowitzki is far less of a picture of good health than Braun, who's much better at staying on the field. Last 4 years ('12-'15 in that order), games played:

 

Tulowitzki: 47, 126, 91, 128

Braun: 154, 61, 135, 140

 

Tulowitzki has only 3 years at all of playing at least 140 games. Braun has 6 including 5 straight of 150-160. Of course over half of Braun's games missed in '13 are for his suspension, not injury (though his thumb had become an issue, as we know).

 

For as much as many want to think Braun's injury prone, Tulo's far more so.

[monty57]

Yes, what you all said :-)

 

There are good points on both sides of the Braun/Tulo comparison.

 

With Braun's issues, and his extension not even yet underway, I was skeptical about the Brewers' ability to ever deal him, even for someone just to pick up his contract, giving little in return. Then Braun put together a pretty good season, and Tulo got traded for a pretty good haul. Looking at their careers, they have been remarkably similar (baseballprospectus has Tulo at 37.4 career WARP, and Braun at 39.3; baseballreference 40.5 WAR to 40.0) and both are signed to big money for years. Both also have injury concerns.

 

I don't know what type of return Braun will bring back, but assuming his back surgery is behind him (sorry, bad pun), the Brewers should be able to get a decent return for him. Since he's past 30, he will regress, so I would guess that his return will diminish as time goes on, and in a couple of years the Brewers would probably not be able to trade him, so I hope they get something while they can.

[logan82]

WAR is a counting stat. Braun is the far superior hitter. Tulo is the more valuable player on a game to game basis if he can stay on the field.

[3and2Fastball]

WAR is a counting stat. Braun is the far superior hitter. Tulo is the more valuable player on a game to game basis if he can stay on the field.

 

Braun has also been proven in clutch situations and in the postseason. Which, (despite Sabermetricians dismissing such a thing), I think has real value in if nothing else human perception, which still drives value & trades more than computers. (I think/hope.)

[monty57]

WAR is a counting stat. Braun is the far superior hitter. Tulo is the more valuable player on a game to game basis if he can stay on the field.

 

When I said "similar," I meant similar value to the team, so I figured WAR was the best stat to measure that. They are different players, but have provided similar value to their respective team(s) over the same time frame.

 

In a vacuum, they should provide similar return in trade. In reality, it will depend on how badly a playoff hopeful team with deep pockets wants an All Star caliber bat at a corner OF position.

[MrTPlush]

WAR is a counting stat. Braun is the far superior hitter. Tulo is the more valuable player on a game to game basis if he can stay on the field.

 

Braun has also been proven in clutch situations and in the postseason. Which, (despite Sabermetricians dismissing such a thing), I think has real value in if nothing else human perception, which still drives value & trades more than computers. (I think/hope.)

 

I don't know that teams care much about postseason stats. One team just gave the richest contract to pitcher ever who has been horrible in the postseason countless times.

 

As far as Braun being clutch I think a lot of that was just a coincidence with him being such a phenomenal hitter back in the 2011 Era. He now noticeably strikes out more in clutch situations. I am going to guess that is because clutch situations are mainly against relievers, which these days are power arms, and Braun has tended to struggle with high heat...not being able to turn on it and make solid contact. Also not necessarily "clutch" situations, but he is grounding into a lot more double plays than he used to. I am not saying he isn't clutch, but not something that stands out over similar hitters of his talent.

 

Then again I don't think either postseason success or clutchness factor into trading for a long term guy. If we are talking a 3 month rental maybe then some postseason success gets you giddy.

[The stache]

Scooter Gennett has an extremely high ceiling?

 

I like the guy, but wow, that's a pipe dream.