J.A. Happ to Toronto - 3 years, $36M

[reillymcshane]

The Blue Jays have signed free agent starter J.A. Happ to a 3 year, $36M contract. Happ struggled last year with Seattle (4.64 ERA), but was brilliant (sub-2.00 ERA) after going to Pittsburgh at the trade deadline and tweaking his mechanics.

 

Toronto looks like several past Brewer teams - average veteran starting pitchers surrounded by a powerful lineup. They will have to hope Dickey can manage another decent season, and Happ and Estrada don't revert to their previous selves. A healthy Stromen should help.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/blue-jays-sign-j-a-happ.html

[QuevedosTongue]

This is a surprise, both in the dollars and the fact that they're doing this before David Price signs. Maybe they're convinced he's not coming back.

[reillymcshane]

This is a surprise, both in the dollars and the fact that they're doing this before David Price signs. Maybe they're convinced he's not coming back.

Toronto is going quantity of quality - and shorter term deals.

 

Price is going to go $30M a year for 7 years - at least.

 

Estrada is signed for two years, Happ three years. They traded for Jesse Chavez who's a free agent in a year. Dickey is a free agent after 2016 as well. I assume Stroman will be the fifth starter - that means they have their rotation done for roughly $45M this year.

 

The problem is those guys all have pretty significant question marks - and depth is an issue. Estrada and Happ are coming off career years. Dickey is old. Chavez is pretty mediocre. Stroman is coming off injury. They've dealt their top minor league pitchers, so the guys that offer promise - Harris and Reid-Foley - haven't even pitched above A ball. Just one of those guys blowing up or getting injured can really hurt them.

 

Of course, this team is going to pound the ball. Bautista, Donaldson and Encanarcion hit 40, 41 and 39 HRs each. Tulowitzski is there for full year. The club hit 232 HR last year - and could easily top it.

 

Happ getting $12M annually is pretty steep. The price of mediocre pitching just keeps rising.

[3and2Fastball]

That contract is a cautionary tale as to how important it is to develop young pitching. Fortunately, Stearns already knows that.

 

Random factoid: Ethan Happ, the freshman Basketball player at the University of Wisconsin, is J.A. Happ's cousin

[AKCheesehead]

 

Happ getting $12M annually is pretty steep. The price of mediocre pitching just keeps rising.

 

This reminds me so much of the Randy Wolf signing. I'm glad to feel confident we won't see signings like this for Milwaukee for the foreseeable future.

[DHonks]

AKCheesehead, didn't Wolf have a prolonged history of success? Happ only has a prolonged record of teams falling in love with his potential. Reminds me of Matt Clement and Scott Schoenweiss.

[AKCheesehead]

I guess it reminded me of it because of the similarities of the signings. Team looking for an affordable FA, sign a lefty in his early thirties coming off his best couple years since he was 25-26, to a 3 year deal that in all likelihood will be the last big paycheck of his career. Wolf had a better body of work before our contract, sure, especially in innings pitched. But in either case, it's a 33 year old with a career ERA around 4.

Edit: No ill feelings towards Wolf here. He was pretty solid for us for the first 2 years of the deal.

[reillymcshane]

AKCheesehead, didn't Wolf have a prolonged history of success? Happ only has a prolonged record of teams falling in love with his potential. Reminds me of Matt Clement and Scott Schoenweiss.

 

Wolf was definitely better than Happ - even Wolf was never that good. Happ's had a couple of decent seasons, and his career ERA is similar to Wolf's. But he's never eaten innings like Wolf did when he was healthy. And Wolf pitched a lot of his innings during the PED era, when scoring was a lot more prevalent.

 

Wolf had his issues - he's been in the big leagues for parts of 16 seasons - and only 4 times did he have an ERA under 4.00. He looked like a promising young pitcher, then he had a difficult four year run from age 27-30 where he was injured much of the time - and didn't pitch well when he was healthy.

 

Wolf ended up with a decent four year run at the start of his career with Philly, then a nice three year run (one year with LA, two with Milwaukee) in the latter part of his career. He threw over 200 IPs six times - not an insignificant thing to accomplish.

 

Happ looks like a big gamble. That great 11 game run at the end of last year really saved his career. They say he made some mechanical adjustments - but it's hard to think a 33 year old guy can change that dramatically. We'll see.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think the signing is that big of a risk. If your scouting staff believes in the mechanical adjustments and think you can that going on your team this is a solid deal. An ERA under 4 would be solid and easily worth that. Best case scenario he really found some success and puts up a low 3 ERA. There is some age risk involved, but if the scouts signed off it is worth a shot. Not many other cheap options floating around at that price.

[StearnsFTW]

What a world we live in where a stiff like this can get $36mm guaranteed.