Jack Z at his best

[Past Member]

Everyone knows by now how much of a cynic I am concerning Jack Z and the Brewers at large for that matter.

 

The newest Edition of Baseball America has 2 very interesting pieces of info in it that I believe are great barometers of Jack Z's performance as Scouting Director.

 

I will say that Gallardo is on the cover and he appears to be the next big thing. I am excited to see his arrival to the Majors and instantly become a #1 or #2 starter for the team.

 

The observations I make are as follows:

 

Cameron Maybin is listed as the top candidate for Minor League Player of the year, with niether Gallardo or Braun being mentioned. The winner of this award generally goes on to be a pretty decent major leaguer.

 

The two disappointing things I noticed (directed at Jack Z) are that the teams farm system is in decline. It went from #1, to #3, to #5 and now this year is ranked #7. I know how hard it is to maintain high levels like this, but it is still in decline.

 

And this is the big one.....The Brewers have the lowest, in all of MLB, in "Total Player Seasons Produced". (in the last 12 years). Only 21 players that the brewers have drafted in that time have made it to the major leagues, and of those 21, they have only played 26 years total in the Majors. Of this group, Geoff Jenkins is one, and he has 9 years under his belt. So take away Jenkins and those numbers drop to 20 players with only 15 years of experience. I would say these numbers directly reflect on how Jack conducts, or should I say "badly conducts" his draft.

 

Just my jaded thoughts.......

[Team Canada]

And this is the big one.....The Brewers have the lowest, in all of MLB, in "Total Player Seasons Produced". (in the last 12 years).

 

 

Considering Jack wasn't drafting players til 2000, I'm not sure how that really matters. Jack's players are just making it to the majors in the last couple years, and as someone noted in another thread, once Braun gets here all the starting position players will be homegrown. So I would actually take the complete opposite opinion as you have.

[Past Member]

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Considering Jack wasn't drafting players til 2000, I'm not sure how that really matters. Jack's players are just making it to the majors in the last couple years, and as someone noted in another thread, once Braun gets here all the starting position players will be homegrown. So I would actually take the complete opposite opinion as you have.

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Well first off, he has had 7 years at this and he's still got the team at the bottom. But lets take the Devil Rays as a comparison. (Since they have been around for the same amount of time that Jack has been SD for the Brewers). The Devil Rays have drafted 31 players that have a combined 42 years of experience. And I might add that the Devil Rays have the #1 farm system in baseball (which also means they have even more "players on the way" that will impact those numbers mentioned above. The only team in baseball that has fewer of its drafted players reach the majors is the Reds and they had 20, but those 20 have over 47 years of experience under their belts.

 

I just think these numbers scream (towards my opinion) about the job Jack Z has done.

[colbyjack]

Sorry, but you're really reaching for reasons to criticize Jack Z. TC already commented about how you can't use the "Total Player Seasons Produced" category against the guy, at least not right now (maybe in a good 10 years). Use that against the Sal Bando regime as much as you want.

 

As for Cameron Maybin being listed as a probable minor league player of the year candidate with Braun and Gallardo not being mentioned, first of all, does that really matter? Second of all, Braun and Gallardo probably aren't candidates because BA, like most everyone else, expects both of them to contribute at the big-league level quite a bit this season. If Braun is up with the team by June and Gallardo follows suit at some point this year, neither one of them is going to have the counting numbers to compete with the other players likely to be in contention for this honor.

[BillScottCanRake]

The two disappointing things I noticed (directed at Jack Z) are that the teams farm system is in decline. It went from #1, to #3, to #5 and now this year is ranked #7. I know how hard it is to maintain high levels like this, but it is still in decline.

 

When you are at number 1, you can only go down, so a decline is to be expected.

 

The other thing I would say is that while it's cool to be number one, I'd never, ever judge a scouting director on being number one. It's not important. What is important is the ability to continually add talent to the system. I don't think anyone can really argue that Jack hasn't continued to add talent that is major league caliber.

 

So, beyond that, how come Milwaukee dropped? If you take a Fielder, Weeks, Hart and Hardy from your top prospect list, you'll more than likely drop from number 1. I don't know of any minor league organization that could take those hits and not decline.

 

I wouldn't be terribly surprised if they take another hit next year when Braun is no longer a prospect, and maybe someone like Gallardo. And, if prospects are traded for ML talent, it will take a further hit. But I doubt that BA will give the Brewers credit for turning a minor leaguer into an instant major leaguer via this route.

 

 

And this is the big one.....The Brewers have the lowest, in all of MLB, in "Total Player Seasons Produced". (in the last 12 years).

 

Since Jack Z hasn't been scouting director 12 years, I don't believe that is a fair barometer of his tenure in Milwaukee.

 

This year's team will have the following Jack Z players starting:

 

Fielder

Weeks

Hardy

Hart

 

The Bench will have either Rottino or Gwynn.

 

By June 1, you'll be able to add Braun to the list. Maybe you'll be able to add Gallardo soon.

 

While the list doesn't include any pitchers (you can add Sarfate if he gets called up at any point this year), that's a pretty good haul when you consider he didn't take over until 2000. It's hard to get service time for players when the main guys are all 23, 24 and 25 years old.

 

I understand being critical, and I know that as fans we sometimes are less critical than we should be. But I strongly believe harping on a couple of things and ignoring the overall results is just as harmful as letting things slide one shouldn't.

[Past Member]

Oh yeah, and I forgot to mention that the Brewers are also the worst at identifying and developing pitching talent. Over the time frame mentioned in the previous post, the Brewers have only developed 10 pitchers. If it were not for Ben Sheets, Ruddy Lugo is the last pitcher to be drafted by the Brewers to put in major league experience.

 

Once again, other teams, in the same period of time that Jack Z has been at the helm have drafted and developed and turned into legitimate ML stars their pitchers, Jack does not. I mean this is a fan site, but c'mon....

 

I agree that Hardy, Weeks, Fielder and Hart are all guys that Jack drafted and are now at the major league level and those things kind of impact the numbers I have quoted in earlier posts, but the fact that they are at the bottom of both of these lists says something, I think, about Jack's performance as SD.

[BillScottCanRake]

I agree that Hardy, Weeks, Fielder and Hart are all guys that Jack drafted and are now at the major league level and those things kind of impact the numbers I have quoted in earlier posts, but the fact that they are at the bottom of both of these lists says something, I think, about Jack's performance as SD.

 

I'd like you to come up with the numbers since 2000, instead of over the last 12 years. Let's compare apples to apples here, instead of using 5 years of Bando's numbers.

 

Otherwise it just looks like you are looking for numbers to show us how you are right about Jack Z.

[colbyjack]

Once again, other teams, in the same period of time that Jack Z has been at the helm have drafted and developed and turned into legitimate ML stars their pitchers, Jack does not. I mean this is a fan site, but c'mon....

 

Chris has already touched on this, but you're not comparing Jack Z. to other teams and scouting directors since Jack Z. has taken over. You started the thread by saying the study goes back 12 years. Jack Z. has only been around since 2000. Until you use a consistent study group, your comments towards this really are baseless.

 

And you know what, even since 2000 I'm still guessing his numbers wouldn't be particularly great, since there are going to be a lot of players from 2000 until the first player Jack Z. draft made it to the big leagues. Again, this is not the type of thing you can determine at this point in time. 12 years from now, absolutely.

 

I think Jack Z. has his faults (like developing pitching so far), but you're still reaching to find more of them, and I don't know why you are intentionally ignoring the fact that 50% of the everyday starting lineup is his responsibility, and bump that figure up to 63% when Braun becomes a regular. If you think that is commonplace, find another team that has 4-5 everyday players that can be attributed to one scouting director (other than the Twins, as Radcliffe has been there forever and he's the best in the biz).

[biedergb]

It went from #1, to #3, to #5 and now this year is ranked #7.

 

That in itself is a testament to the scouting department. Our #1 rating was mostly due to Fielder & Weeks (with Hart, Hardy and probably Hendrickson among others). All of that talent, I mean severall top prospects have been graduated to the majors, and we are still considered above average in terms of prospects. Sure Jones, Parra, Rogers have had injury bugs, but they are not done. Pitching prospects are the hardest things to come by. Even looking at the best pitchers in baseball, many came via trades (like J. Santana, D. Willis, even vets like Pedro or Schilling) and a few even came into their own after injuries (like Carpenter). Roger Clemens clones don't come around every year. The 2004 draft not-withstanding, it's not very common to draft a pitcher and have him succeed quickly.

 

I say that the fact that this franchise had so few players developed before Jack Z. came here (just look at the drafts from 1991-199http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/glasses.gif , and we have a bunch of homegrown players, with a farm system that still has severall tiers of good prospects (Braun/Gallardo, followed by Inman, Cain, Fermaint, Jeffress). And this is despite several injuries and/or disappointments (ie, Krynzel, Jones) Now, he should earn his praise if this trend continues for a few more years, otherwise he'll look like a product of our annually high draft picks.

[homer]

TB has not developed one decent starting pitcher (Kazmir was acquired via trade).

[splitterpfj]

Sometimes I think Jack Z gets a little too much praise. I like him, and I can see that he's clearly helping the organization, but he doesn't walk on water.

 

I give him credit for taking Fielder when he did, I know there were teams who thought that was a reach at the time, but I also thought Mark Rogers was a strange pick, and a clear reach, which may indeed be the case.

 

When you see this many solid young players in the everyday lineup, you know the scouting director is good at what he does, now I just hope some of the young arms he's taken start to make it as well.

 

As for the decline in rankings, that isn't a big deal when you're still at #7, graduating your best prospects to the major league team is going to have an effect like that. It's a trend that you need to break, and head back in the other direction, but when you see Braun and Gallardo nearly ready, after so many others have already reached Milwaukee, there's no cause for alarm.

[paul253]

The number of seasons will definately go up this year....Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Fielder, and probably Rottino, Gwynn, and Braun, will make 7 this year...Gallardo would be 8...so i dont think thats something we need to worry about.

 

As far as Jack Z., the only thing i dont like about him is his insistance on taking HS pitchers in the 1st round. I thought the Jeremy Jeffress pick was a terrible pick last year (for the record I was rooting for Daniel Bard). The year he took Mark Rogers, he didnt even take the best HS pitcher, and we all know what kind of prospect that pitcher has turned into now (I'm talking about Homer Bailey of course) If he takes another HS pitcher this year with what, the 7th pick is it...??? Its really too bad the way the draft is set up to benefit the teams who lose free agents and not teams that are bad and need help, but we really need a good, deep draft this year to replenish our system because after Inman, Braun, and Gallardo, we dont have much in terms of cant miss prospects.

[igor67]

I think it would be instructive bradyo if you looke at BAs top 5 or 10 over the last 10 years. Repeating at number 1 is nearly impossible because if your prospects are good enough to put you up there they are almost definitely off the list and playing in the big leagues by the next year. Point 2 large jumps up the list are usually spurred by a two factors.

1) large numbers of supplemental picks from departed free agents

2) trades of major leaguers for prospects

 

The Brewers haven't gotten any benefit from number 1 and the benefits to the farm system for number 2 have been very muted. Most of the prospects we've gotten of any consequence went on to play in the majors very quickly and tended not to linger in the minors to boost our depth.

Which means that the ranking for Jack is all about consistently drafting well with no real back up stream for talent. Very few other teams can boast that kind of consisten performance. The A's heavily have used extra picks. Atlanta has benefitted somewhat from extra picks. Diamondbacks have mostly done it through the draft as have the Twins. The Rays have always had awesome draft position.

[colbyjack]

...but we really need a good, deep draft this year to replenish our system because after Inman, Braun, and Gallardo, we dont have much in terms of cant miss prospects.

 

Well, three can't miss prospects is pretty dang good. I've mentioned before in the minor league forum that you'll be hard-pressed to find any organization that has three prospects as good or better than the Brewers top trio.

 

And I think there is a very good next tier of talent just after Gallardo, Braun and Inman, which includes Cain, Gamel, Gillespie, Escobar, Hammond, Salome, Fermaint, etc. I agree that the team needs to have a strong drafting effort, although I think that is always important. One bad draft for a team like the Brewers can have a negative lasting impact, and fortunately so far the Brewers have found a starter each year Jack Z. has been the SD (Hart, Hardy, Fielder, Weeks from 2000-2003). What's interesting about that comment is that Hart was the first player selected of that group, but is the last to grab a starting job, which shows how long is often takes for players to make it to and stick at the big-league level (meaning, a scouting director needs a lot longer to accurately gauge how good of a job he's doing).

[Never Outhustled]

Cameron Maybin is listed as the top candidate for Minor League Player of the year, with niether Gallardo or Braun being mentioned. The winner of this award generally goes on to be a pretty decent major leaguer.

 

Braun and Gallardo aren't mentioned because they are expected to spend to much time in the Bigs to warrant a minor league award. Both will likely be better than pretty decent major leaguers before Maybin gets his 1st MLB at-bat.

[colbyjack]

I just got done reading the breakdown in Baseball America that bradyo has referenced, and I thought I should point that the Dodgers finished 2nd to last in the study to the Brewers. The Dodgers of course have Logan White, considered by many to be the best scouting director in all of baseball (which I don't agree with, but he's certainly one of the best).

 

If these studies are to ring true as to how to rate the best scouting directors in the game, Logan White would be lumped with Jack Z.

 

Fortunately, the rest of us know that both White and Zduriencik need more time to be analyzed fairly as scouting directors, as it takes time to procure talent, and both should be given credit for the amount of talent they have already supplied their respective systems with.

 

And for what it's worth, even BA recognized these points.

[GagneCY03]

Since you brought him up, where would you rank Logan White?

[colbyjack]

White would be in my top 10, possibly top five if I really took the time to break it down. I think many think he could be considered the best in the biz in a few years, and he already is thought incredibly highly of by his peers. He's similar to Jack Z. in that he took over a previously empty system and filled it with a ton of talent, but that talent only started to make its way up last year.

[homer]

Just out of curiosity (and ignorance), can a scouting director be considered responsible for minor league players received in trades? Does he have a say in who a GM gets in return? The reason I ask is because Carlos Villanueva seems like a pretty nice haul for a guy like Wayne Frankline.

[Blazer25]

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Just out of curiosity (and ignorance), can a scouting director be considered responsible for minor league players received in trades?

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In some cases yes...in some no. In Jack Z's case the answer would be yes.

 

Some clubs break their scouting responsibilities down into pro and amateur scouting. The Brewers (like most clubs) have their area scouts cover the minor league pro teams in their geographic area.

 

These scouting reports are the basis for guys acquired in trades and waiver claims.

 

So in the Brewers case...yes Jack Z deserves the credit for his scouts recognizing available minor league talent to trade for.

[SoCalBrewfan]

It should also be noted that Jack Z has drafted a lot of HS players since he's taken over, so those guys will necessarily take more time to hit the big leagues...and so it's likely that players from recent drafts who will have Major League time will just have started their careers. And when you look, you see that is the case...it will be difficult to judge current drafts for many years still.

 

It's also hard to compare drafts directly with that measure because some teams have many more premium picks over the FA compensation era. The A's of course are the pros at this, but other teams routinely have multiple first-round and comp picks...I don't think Jack Z has ever had a comp pick. Of course, we have had relatively high picks, which is also a factor.

 

That said, I do see some picks that I felt to be wasted over the Jack Z era. Clearly the guy swings for the fences sometimes, and sometimes he misses...Josh Murray, anyone? But he hits, too, with enough regularity that the Brewers are now considered contenders almost completely on the basis of drafted players. I wouldn't call Jack Z the best in the business, but he's in the upper tier...though I'd probably put him behind guys like Radcliff, Rizzo, and White.

[reillymcshane]

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Oh yeah, and I forgot to mention that the Brewers are also the worst at identifying and developing pitching talent. Over the time frame mentioned in the previous post, the Brewers have only developed 10 pitchers. If it were not for Ben Sheets, Ruddy Lugo is the last pitcher to be drafted by the Brewers to put in major league experience.

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Sarfate was picked in 2001 and was on the club last season for a short while. Chris Saenz had a cup of jo with the club too (2001 pick also). Ty Taubenheim, a 2003 pick, made it up last year, though with the Jays. Eveland was a 2002 pick.

 

None of these guys is anything major, but there have been a few guys that have made it up - even if just for a short time. None project to be anything great - back of the rotation guys at best for Ty and Dana. Middle reliever for Sarfate.

 

On the whole, the club hasn't developed pitching - in the Jack Z era or before that. At least, however, our position players are developing well.