KROD to the Tigers for Betancourt and PTBNL (PTBNL is catcher Manny Piña, post 157)

[CheeseheadInQC]

I thought I had read that the Brewers' front office had said the return was two minor leaguers, so I discounted anyone with more than a token major league appearance. If I was wrong, then those guys would come into play.

[MrTPlush]

All those situations aren't comparable. The player was traded for a player to be named later and they opted to just trade back who they got canceling out the trade. Since three players are involved in this trade you can't really do that.

 

Besides I don't think I am going to lose sleep over possibly not getting some scrub who will likely amount to nothing.

[WV Brew]

Be nice if Dominic Ficociello were the PTBNL. He had a pretty good year at Lakeland last year, plays 1B and has played some 3B. That would fit the Brewers' needs.

[davego]

People need to understand how quickly the game is evolving and how much Sabermetrics were applied in the Royals development of back to back World Series appearances and one World Championship.

 

The Royals correctly built that team on pitching & defense. It doesn't take a sabermetrician to tell you that in most sports, "defense wins championships". The Royals took it a step further though with that incredible bullpen that shortened games. Give them a lead in the 6th inning and the game was essentially over. I think that is a trend that will only continue. The Royals also correctly determined that in a pitching era like we are now in, very athletic players who are high contact hitters are more valuable than the traditional old paradigm saber darlings with a high OBP and high OPS.

 

...strike outs DO matter, after all!!! I knew it!!!

[ZBTMP]

I know that the majority is in favor of making Smith or Jeffress the closer now, but I would like to see them go after a buy-low veteran looking for the job (Ala Grilli Atlanta last year). I get the logic that a "proven" closer will drive up Smith's or Jeffress's value but I don't think teams think like that anymore. Teams will just look at them as more expensive because the arbitration system weighs saves heavily in salary negotiations. And if whoever you bring has a nice first half, they can be moved for more prospects at the deadline for a team desperate for relief help.

[And That]

Agreed, I'd love to pick up a David Hernandez or Jason Motte if they'd come on a 1-year, reasonable deal. If Smith/Jeffress (if either or both are still here come opening day) outperform the free agent signing, so be it, but I think there's a no-risk value in adding to the end of the bullpen. Crappy teams with good bullpens can benefit greatly around the trading deadline.

[Outlander]

I know infielders have been mentioned as possible rule 5 selections but they could also take a flier on somebody like Johnny Venters and see what he looks like in spring training. If it is not working out he can be sent back to the Rays, if he looks anything like before he can be the closer and potential nice asset at the deadline.

[1992casey]

…There's a tendency - at least in my mind - for stats-heavy analysis to lose sight of the situational aspects of baseball. (Offenses are based on the macro-level numbers; runs are scored or not scored on the micro-level.)

Probably because the percent of times it matters are pretty small unless the guy is a pinch hitter.…

Yeah, the situational aspects get into small samples that don't mean much when you try to apply stats to individuals. You need to look at a player's overall stats to determine general value, then apply the eye test for situational stuff. We had the Branyan-Cirillo combo several years ago. They complemented each other well. They carried similar OBPs, with Russ providing the SLG percentage and Jeff providing the situational skills.

 

 

I remember how negitive people acted when we got Barrios for ARam…

I was actually surprised that A-Ram returned anyone at all who might become useful. He was going to retire (or if he changed his mind, he'd be a free agent), and he wasn't having a good season at the time of the trade.

 

 

It could very well be one of Detroit's top prospects, and the Brewers want the Tigers to use a 40-man spot for the Rule 5 draft as well as the next few months until the Brewers can clear another 40-man spot by dealing Lind. This allows the Brewers to get an upper-level prospect from the Tigers as well as nab someone in the Rule 5 draft and have an extra roster spot for up to 6 months.

Based on some of the prospect hauls in trades made over the past few months, I think it's reasonable to think that the PTBNL will be better than Betancourt. But I want to temper that enthusiasm a little. Message boards (not necessarily this one) will see a PTBNL and automatically assume that this guy's going to be a top prospect, no matter who might have been traded for said PTBNL. K-Rod's been good, though, and I think we might be pleasantly surprised once this trade is completed.

[1992casey]

Crappy teams with good bullpens can benefit greatly around the trading deadline.

They can also help avoid the long innings that are pure torture for the fans and players, i.e. the innings that have a bunch of walks and pitching changes mixed in with a bunch of hits. And they can help avoid the need for forced roster moves when bullpens are taxed.

[logan82]

People need to understand how quickly the game is evolving and how much Sabermetrics were applied in the Royals development of back to back World Series appearances and one World Championship.

 

The Royals correctly built that team on pitching & defense. It doesn't take a sabermetrician to tell you that in most sports, "defense wins championships". The Royals took it a step further though with that incredible bullpen that shortened games. Give them a lead in the 6th inning and the game was essentially over. I think that is a trend that will only continue. The Royals also correctly determined that in a pitching era like we are now in, very athletic players who are high contact hitters are more valuable than the traditional old paradigm saber darlings with a high OBP and high OPS.

 

...strike outs DO matter, after all!!! I knew it!!!

Of course they matter. They are just a poor indicator of how good an offense is. The Royals struck out the least of any team in MLB however they were in the lower half of the top 10 in runs.

[ZBTMP]

Agreed, I'd love to pick up a David Hernandez or Jason Motte if they'd come on a 1-year, reasonable deal. If Smith/Jeffress (if either or both are still here come opening day) outperform the free agent signing, so be it, but I think there's a no-risk value in adding to the end of the bullpen. Crappy teams with good bullpens can benefit greatly around the trading deadline.

 

Steve Cishek would be another one I'd target. Might draw interest from other teams as a situational righty reliever so you might have to pay 3-4 million, but if he returns to pre-2015 form you have gold and its not like they don't have money. I could see him biting at the chance to re-coup the value he lost last season and a reasonable opportunity to be the closer.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Of course they matter. They are just a poor indicator of how good an offense is. The Royals struck out the least of any team in MLB however they were in the lower half of the top 10 in runs.

 

 

It's funny, the quote was that OBP doesn't matter as much as strikeouts..... AB * OBP * SLG should get you runs scored, with about a 2.5 % variance.

 

If you do this for the Royals, you get 736. The Royals scored 724 runs. That's pretty darn close. That doesn't take strikeouts into account at all.

 

One can argue that their "contact method" played into their OBP and SLG (that's arguable of course) but at the end of the day getting on base and getting more bases scores runs. The manner of which you make outs matters almost not at all.

[trwi7]

I know a lot of you don't like him but Keith Law on his Periscope chat yesterday said Betancourt is at least a utility player with a chance to be a star.

[3and2Fastball]

I know a lot of you don't like him but Keith Law on his Periscope chat yesterday said Betancourt is at least a utility player with a chance to be a star.

 

That is great to hear.

 

People associate "Moneyball" with high OBP and HR hitters but Moneyball was really about finding cost effective ways to improve your team by acquiring underappreciated players. The Royals emphasis on high contact/great glove players will be imitated league wide. Javi B is exactly that type of player

[Thurston Fluff]

I think we traded for a potential starting 2B. We are in a pitcher's era, get used to it. The days of putting together starting lineups of Fielder/Weeks/Yuni B that bungle or can't get to ground balls are hopefully long behind us. Pitching & Defense is where it is at. Javi B has a long ways to go but he's got a great glove and this hopefully indicates a change in direction in the Stearns era

 

FWIW, what you are saying you hope is long behind us was our last playoff team and our first decent chance at a World Championship since 1982. I would not mind having more teams like the 2011 Brewers at any point in the near term.

 

I understand that very well. However the MLB paradigm has flipped dramatically since then even more towards pitching, defense, and young talent

 

While I agree with you that is how teams are winning now I don't think you build your team of the future based on how things are going in the present. By the time these guys get to the majors the paradigm may have changed and we are back in an offense heavy game. It seem to me if we are building for the future based on what people do today we will always be one step behind.

[gregmag]

I love this trade.

 

I'm glad K-Rod the pitcher we don't need is gone. I'm glad K-Rod the person is gone. I'm glad K-Rod's contract is gone.

 

We got a young guy who has a nontrivial chance to be useful when we're good again. We get a PTBNL. We got a roster spot for the Rule 5 draft. We got salary relief.

 

Everyone has been talking since before the deadline about how K-Rod's age, salary, and domestic violence record combine to diminish his trade value. This deal is as good as I could have hoped for.

 

Garza next. For anything or nothing. Please.

[bacon06]

I am holding out hope the Tigers cut K-Rod in Spring Training and the Brewers sign him. And then trade him a third time.

[brewcrewdue80]

The rules might have changed but the Indians got Brantley instead of Green because of the Brewers performance post trade.

It could be like contracts that vest where some stats are allowed (such as starts or games finished) while others aren't (like ERA or BA). But performance is going to be irrelevant in this situation. Because players to be named have to be exchanged within six months of a trade, there won't be any time for K-Rod to "perform."

 

Yeah that's what I was thinking. 6months. Wonder why the PTBNL. A guy who's injured/coming off injury any day now and maybe playing some winter ball to chose from? With the new acquisition of Villar, the return thus far isn't impressing. Who do the Tigers have that maybe qualifies as injured goods to be determined? Is that Rondon RP a possibility? Someone like that?

[Crash2303]

who do you think will be the better PTBNL prospect we'll receive? from Detroit or Minnesota (Neal Cotts)?

[Outlander]

How did a K-Rod trade topic morph into this?

 

Let's talk about who the PTBNL might be.

I was listening to conference call Stearns had with reporters and he would not address it at all. Wouldn't say if is somebody ranked higher than Betancourt, a potential rule 5 guy or the timeframe except it would be completed during the off season.

[monty57]

While I agree with you that is how teams are winning now I don't think you build your team of the future based on how things are going in the present. By the time these guys get to the majors the paradigm may have changed and we are back in an offense heavy game. It seem to me if we are building for the future based on what people do today we will always be one step behind.

 

Well said Thurston. The tactic of selling what's overvalued and buying what's undervalued would mean that with teams presumably trying to emulate Kansas City, the Brewers (in rebuild) should sell any of these players they have. Unfortunately, Melvin never seemed to like athletic players who played good defense, so we're thin here. It probably helped raise the value of Gomez and Parra.

 

The good thing, if last year is any indicator, is that teams seem to have shifted from their stance of overvaluing prospects. Lots of top prospects were traded last season, and that would appear to be a good thing for a team in the early stages of a rebuild. Good pre-arby players will always be a value.

[Mass Haas]

This new article out of Detroit includes the following text:

 

Will the Tigers draft a player in the Rule 5? Will they lose a player in the Rule 5? That remains to be seen, of course. What happens shortly after the Rule 5 draft could be more intriguing to Tigers fans.

 

It's likely that the reason the Tigers included a player to be named later in the trade that brought them closer Francisco Rodriguez was because the Milwaukee Brewers wanted the Tigers to keep that player on their 40-man roster through the Rule 5 draft to prevent them from having to expose a player they did not want to expose.

 

It's very likely that trade will be completed shortly after the Rule 5 draft is completed. At that point, Tigers fans will know exactly what the Tigers gave up for Rodriguez.

 

So if this is accurate (seems reasonable), then the PTBNL is currently on Detroit's 40-man roster (which stands at 38 after they added three players to it this morning, those three players are discussed in the linked article).

[pogokat]

Moya? Jefry Marte? Dixon Machado? Not that much that's super exciting here. Marte could probably be the third baseman. Moya is somewhat highly regarded for the Tigers, but i don't think he'd be the one.

[Jenkins5]

Jefry Marte 3B 24yo

Wynton Benard CF 25yo

Luis Cessa SP 23

Montreal Robertson SP 25

 

and the guy that makes the most sense for this trade Jairo Labourt. The Brewers needed their player on 40 man to make sure they were not taken. Labourt, is 21 pitched awful in Advanced A ball and showed almost no reason why he could stick at MLB level as a role 5. Great potential though.

 

K-Rod for Bethencourt and Labourt is a win in my eyes for sure.

[MadScientist]

Not sure it makes sense that the player is already on Detroit's 40. If the Brewers have a full roster after the rule 5 draft, they have to cut someone to make room for the PTBNL. I suppose it gives them more time to trade Lind et al, but a non 40 player just makes more sense to me.