Red Sox acquire Craig Kimbrel from Padres

[trwi7]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/red-sox-to-acquire-craig-kimbrel.html

 

OF Manuel Margot, SS Javier Guerra, IF Carlos Asuaje and LHP Logan Allen are going to San Diego.

 

Those are the Red Sox 3rd, 6th, 23rd and 25th best prospects. Margot is rated the 25th best prospect in baseball, Guerra is the 76th.

 

Needless to say, this is a horrendous trade for the Red Sox. Not only giving up quantity but also a ton of quality. Logan Allen looks like he could be a fantastic piece down the road as well.

[reillymcshane]

Craig Kimbrel heads to Boston for four prospects - outfielder Manuel Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, infielder Carlos Asuaje and left-hander Logan Allen.

 

Margot was ranked #25 by MLB Pipeline.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14124091/boston-red-sox-acquire-craig-kimbrel-san-diego-padres

[StearnsFTW]

Holy Crap. For a closer?

 

Good god that's awful for Boston. Which means I love it.

[jerichoholicninja]

Imagine what a cheaper Krod could bring in return.

[3and2Fastball]

Wow! Kimbrel just had the worst year of his career and he brings back 4 prospects?!

[torts]

Imagine what a cheaper Krod could bring in return.

 

I know, everyone talks about kimbrel and chapman trades and mever mention krod

[reillymcshane]

Imagine what a cheaper Krod could bring in return.

 

Relievers are sort of weird in that very few are so dominant that they are actually game changers. Kimbrel has been like that. Same with Chapman. In fact, those two guys, along with Mariano Rivera, are probably the most dominant closers in baseball over the last 20 years. They are in a class by themselves - and clubs will overpay for them. But very few fit this mold, and K-Rod isn't close to that elite group (not even taking into account his age and past abuse issues).

 

Teams pay through the nose for rare, elite talent. K-Rod is a good reliever, but he's not worth that much. It doesn't mean someone won't want him, but I don't think anyone is going to give that much for him.

[danzig6767]

Imagine what a cheaper Krod could bring in return.

Relievers are sort of weird in that very few are so dominant that they are actually game changers. Kimbrel has been like that. Same with Chapman. In fact, those two guys, along with Mariano Rivera, are probably the most dominant closers in baseball over the last 20 years. They are in a class by themselves - and clubs will overpay for them. But very few fit this mold, and K-Rod isn't close to that elite group (not even taking into account his age and past abuse issues).

Teams pay through the nose for rare, elite talent. K-Rod is a good reliever, but he's not worth that much. It doesn't mean someone won't want him, but I don't think anyone is going to give that much for him.

That's a big overpay for a true contender, but for a Boston team who only won 78 games last year and finished last in their division, it's beyond ridiculous.

 

My guess is though that we'll see quality relief pitchers get more money than ever before given how important bullpens have been on winning playoff teams.

 

FWIW, I agree that bullpens are more important today than anytime in baseball history given how most teams/managers use them, but most well run teams will do best to build strong bullpens mostly out of young pitchers they develop vs overpaying in free agency or in trades.

 

Sports are often copycat so teams see the amount of success other teams have had in the playoffs the last 4-5 years by having a lock down back end of their bullpen, even without a great rotation. This i think will lead to more money being spent on relievers, regardless that in most cases, the upper tier bullpens haven't been really expensive. Instead, many very good pens have been put together with younger hard throwers who were converted from being starters because thy lacked more than two pitches.

 

Maybe Stearns could shop Will Smith and land a high quality prospect?

[3and2Fastball]

Sports are often copycat so teams see the amount of success other teams have had in the playoffs the last 4-5 years by having a lock down back end of their bullpen, even without a great rotation. This i think will lead to more money being spent on relievers, regardless that in most cases, the upper tier bullpens haven't been really expensive. Instead, many very good pens have been put together with younger hard throwers who were converted from being starters because thy lacked more than two pitches.

 

Maybe Stearns could shop Will Smith and land a high quality prospect?

 

 

For the precise reasons that you laid out so well above, that is exactly why I would prefer the Brewers keep Will Smith so that he can be part of a great bullpen once the rebuild is completed

[danzig6767]

Sports are often copycat so teams see the amount of success other teams have had in the playoffs the last 4-5 years by having a lock down back end of their bullpen, even without a great rotation. This i think will lead to more money being spent on relievers, regardless that in most cases, the upper tier bullpens haven't been really expensive. Instead, many very good pens have been put together with younger hard throwers who were converted from being starters because thy lacked more than two pitches.

 

Maybe Stearns could shop Will Smith and land a high quality prospect?

For the precise reasons that you laid out so well above, that is exactly why I would prefer the Brewers keep Will Smith so that he can be part of a great bullpen once the rebuild is completed

The problem with that though is odds are likely that Smith will be reaching or near reaching free agency by the time the Brewers hopefully are a legit playoff contender again. He was already granted Super-2 status, so Smith is now entering the arbitration phase of his career, meaning the days of him being a cheap bullpen arm will be ending soon. Unless Stearns turns the Brewers into a good team sooner than most expect, at best Will Smith will be entering his last year of arbitration or a free agent to be season by the time the team is good enough to win 90 games or more.

 

I've been saying for a few years now that the importance of bullpens in today's version of baseball have been underrated by many. Clearly teams need a solid to good rotation first because in the rough grind of a 162 game MLB season, it's really hard to make it into the playoffs without at the very least, a solid rotation.

 

Once in those playoffs though, i've felt for awhile that the old long held belief that teams can't advance in the playoffs without multiple very good to elite starters no longer is true so long as a team has an elite bullpen and two good starters, regardless if they aren't a true ace. Obviously having multiple great starters helps a lot, but far from 100 percent required. History of late has shown this.

 

With extra off days and the season coming to an end, managers in the playoffs can use their better relief pitchers more often compared to the regular season. Can yank a struggling starter sooner, especially if the team has a pretty good swing guy to bridge untill the 6th-7th inning where multiple hard throwing, low ERA, low WHIP, good to great K/9-K/BB relief pitchers are waiting. Hell, if a team has an upper-tier back end of the pen, unless there is a true stud ace on the mound, it can often be bad for an offense to see the starter exit the game come the 6th or 7th inning.

 

Quite different from around say 10-15 years ago when a number of teams built offenses with a core ingredient of trying to wear down good starters so as to hopefully get into the bullpen by the 6th or 7th inning. Now a good number of teams have multiple 93 to 98 mph power arms in the pen with stats better than most of the starters in their rotation.

[Thurston Fluff]

The problem with that though is odds are likely that Smith will be reaching or near reaching free agency by the time the Brewers hopefully are a legit playoff contender again. He was already granted Super-2 status, so Smith is now entering the arbitration phase of his career, meaning the days of him being a cheap bullpen arm will be ending soon. Unless Stearns turns the Brewers into a good team sooner than most expect, at best Will Smith will be entering his last year of arbitration or a free agent to be season by the time the team is good enough to win 90 games or more.

 

Very well thought out couple of posts and I agree with most of what you said. I do however, think you are looking at the bullpen in the wrong light with this part. You seem to be more interested in the cost than the quality. If relievers are the upcoming thing then it stands to reason money should be less of a concern than other parts of the roster. If you need a good pen and can get away with average starters save the money on starters and spend it on the pen. If you have a good reliever lock him up before he can get away. Of course that comes with the caveat if the right deal comes along we should take it. It's just I don't think cost should be the motivating factor for why we trade him.

[3and2Fastball]

The problem with that though is odds are likely that Smith will be reaching or near reaching free agency by the time the Brewers hopefully are a legit playoff contender again. He was already granted Super-2 status, so Smith is now entering the arbitration phase of his career, meaning the days of him being a cheap bullpen arm will be ending soon. Unless Stearns turns the Brewers into a good team sooner than most expect, at best Will Smith will be entering his last year of arbitration or a free agent to be season by the time the team is good enough to win 90 games or more.

 

 

Makes sense, thanks. I just wouldn't be in a hurry to trade Smith though, and would hold out for a good deal. He could be a big part of somebody's bullpen. His previous value was Nori Aoki, and I would think that with the changing trends in Baseball, that Smith's value might have gone up.

 

 

 

I've been saying for a few years now that the importance of bullpens in today's version of baseball have been underrated by many. Clearly teams need a solid to good rotation first because in the rough grind of a 162 game MLB season, it's really hard to make it into the playoffs without at the very least, a solid rotation.

 

Once in those playoffs though, i've felt for awhile that the old long held belief that teams can't advance in the playoffs without multiple very good to elite starters no longer is true so long as a team has an elite bullpen and two good starters, regardless if they aren't a true ace. Obviously having multiple great starters helps a lot, but far from 100 percent required. History of late has shown this.

 

With extra off days and the season coming to an end, managers in the playoffs can use their better relief pitchers more often compared to the regular season. Can yank a struggling starter sooner, especially if the team has a pretty good swing guy to bridge untill the 6th-7th inning where multiple hard throwing, low ERA, low WHIP, good to great K/9-K/BB relief pitchers are waiting. Hell, if a team has an upper-tier back end of the pen, unless there is a true stud ace on the mound, it can often be bad for an offense to see the starter exit the game come the 6th or 7th inning.

 

Quite different from around say 10-15 years ago when a number of teams built offenses with a core ingredient of trying to wear down good starters so as to hopefully get into the bullpen by the 6th or 7th inning. Now a good number of teams have multiple 93 to 98 mph power arms in the pen with stats better than most of the starters in their rotation.

 

 

Yes! This is a fascinating trend to me. As the Royals have shown, if you have 3 great relievers and a couple of them can go 2 innings in a big game, the game can be over in the 5th inning if you have a lead, as 95% of the time when you can bring in your ace relievers to finish the game they will do just that.

[SRB]

Does anyone else find it unbelievable that K-Rod has been with the Brewers since 2011 at this point?

[3and2Fastball]

Does anyone else find it unbelievable that K-Rod has been with the Brewers since 2011 at this point?

 

Not at all, Doug Melvin has been our GM

 

What I find unbelievable is that Melvin didn't persuade Dennis Eckersley to come out of retirement and pitch out of the pen for Milwaukee

 

The joke I've often said to my friends is: "don't worry, Mike Trout will become a Brewer.... when he's 39 years old"

[Thurston Fluff]

Does anyone else find it unbelievable that K-Rod has been with the Brewers since 2011 at this point?

 

Not at all, Doug Melvin has been our GM

 

What I find unbelievable is that Melvin didn't persuade Dennis Eckersley to come out of retirement and pitch out of the pen for Milwaukee

 

The joke I've often said to my friends is: "don't worry, Mike Trout will become a Brewer.... when he's 39 years old"

 

If we get similar value for old guys as we've had with K-Rod I'd be all for signing more of them.

[3and2Fastball]

Does anyone else find it unbelievable that K-Rod has been with the Brewers since 2011 at this point?

 

Not at all, Doug Melvin has been our GM

 

What I find unbelievable is that Melvin didn't persuade Dennis Eckersley to come out of retirement and pitch out of the pen for Milwaukee

 

The joke I've often said to my friends is: "don't worry, Mike Trout will become a Brewer.... when he's 39 years old"

 

If we get similar value for old guys as we've had with K-Rod I'd be all for signing more of them.

 

 

There's a lot of ways to look at that. To a degree I can see your point. But he's tieing up a roster spot and an increasingly significant role (in terms of MLB trends) on a team that isn't a contender. He is no longer Elite, although he has shown flashes of being Elite (the WHIP in 2015, the way he played in the 1st half w/ the Brewers in 2013, and his play in most of 2011.) The contract isn't even that bad

 

However it seems like an unnecessary use of funds, that when added with other unnecessary use of funds (the Aramis Ramirez contract, Garza) really adds up to be significant money that could have (in my opinion should have) been spent on International Free Agents. Build a great bullpen in-house. K-Rod as a setup man on a contender is a great use of his talents. K-Rod as a closer on a rebuilding team seems like a misuse of a roster spot and a misuse of the limited funds of a small market team.

 

He seems to me to be a remnant from the old regime of Melvin, a regime that got passed by and lapped by smarter front offices in MLB. I would not at all be surprised to see K-Rod traded this offseason.

 

Just a pure guess on my part though is that Stearns is not going to just give players away. He'll hold tight to his trade chips in order to maximize value back. I hope that is the case.

[Thurston Fluff]

My point was about your seeming criticism of getting older guys past their prime because they wouldn't be any good anymore. At least that was how I read your comment since it was mentioning players who obviously would not be any good anymore. K-Rod has been very good here. I would gladly sign someone his age to a deal like his if they perform at that level. IF everyone would have been as good as he was last season we would have been good enough to win a pennant.

 

p.s. I love the Ned Yost 1 Mark Attanasio 0 line.

[clancyphile]

He seems to me to be a remnant from the old regime of Melvin, a regime that got passed by and lapped by smarter front offices in MLB. I would not at all be surprised to see K-Rod traded this offseason.

 

Just a pure guess on my part though is that Stearns is not going to just give players away. He'll hold tight to his trade chips in order to maximize value back. I hope that is the case.

 

I'd like to see K-Rod traded, and Will Smith moved to the closer role as soon as possible. Even K-Rod will have value.

[MrTPlush]

I am not too concerned with K-Rod filling the closer role to be honest. If you stick Will Smith in there it only takes one year for his salary to shoot through the roof. Why even make a move like that? Unless it is someone who is elite and can be elite for years to come all you are doing is taking a good bullpen arm and making his price tag unreasonable. Then you have John Axford, for example, who you then have to non tender and let the entire league have a shot at him.

 

Let some free agent on a one year deal have the job. Until we are on the verge of contending keep our young valuable pitchers away from that spot. You don't need years of experience to be a great closer. If we put Will Smith or Jeremy Jeffress in there now they will be $10mil salaries in 2019.

[clancyphile]

I am not too concerned with K-Rod filling the closer role to be honest. If you stick Will Smith in there it only takes one year for his salary to shoot through the roof. Why even make a move like that? Unless it is someone who is elite and can be elite for years to come all you are doing is taking a good bullpen arm and making his price tag unreasonable. Then you have John Axford, for example, who you then have to non tender and let the entire league have a shot at him.

 

Let some free agent on a one year deal have the job. Until we are on the verge of contending keep our young valuable pitchers away from that spot. You don't need years of experience to be a great closer. If we put Will Smith or Jeremy Jeffress in there now they will be $10mil salaries in 2019.

 

Or assets people might be willing to give us a package of prospects for. Even if it's Kimbrel-lite, that adds to the depth in the farm system.

[MrTPlush]

I am not too concerned with K-Rod filling the closer role to be honest. If you stick Will Smith in there it only takes one year for his salary to shoot through the roof. Why even make a move like that? Unless it is someone who is elite and can be elite for years to come all you are doing is taking a good bullpen arm and making his price tag unreasonable. Then you have John Axford, for example, who you then have to non tender and let the entire league have a shot at him.

 

Let some free agent on a one year deal have the job. Until we are on the verge of contending keep our young valuable pitchers away from that spot. You don't need years of experience to be a great closer. If we put Will Smith or Jeremy Jeffress in there now they will be $10mil salaries in 2019.

 

Or assets people might be willing to give us a package of prospects for. Even if it's Kimbrel-lite, that adds to the depth int he farm system.

 

Don't get me wrong I want K-Rod traded, but not because I want the closer role opened up. I don't see value in putting Smith or Jeffress as the closer at this point in time. Neither seems to be a guy who would be dominant and hold down the spot for many years. Both seem like candidates to rack up saves and inflate their salary past what they are worth. I think both are good in the roles they currently hold. But hey maybe I am wrong. I am sure the Brewers will try and find out.

[pacopete4]

This is a great example of a trade the Brewers could never dream of doing. Only a large market who prospects don't really matter for can do these types of deals. Hate how the MLB is set up.

[trwi7]

This is a great example of a trade the Brewers could never dream of doing. Only a large market who prospects don't really matter for can do these types of deals. Hate how the MLB is set up.

 

Wait. You're upset that the Brewers can't trade multiple top prospects for 60 innings of pitching?

[3and2Fastball]

The Red Sox are a great example of a large market team stuck in the old paradigm of the MLB while smarter teams have passed them by. The signings of Hanley Ramirez & Pablo Sandoval were abysmal. That team is getting older and worse. Money can't buy them out of the hole they've dug for themselves, although they do still have some good young talent coming up.

[pacopete4]

This is a great example of a trade the Brewers could never dream of doing. Only a large market who prospects don't really matter for can do these types of deals. Hate how the MLB is set up.

 

Wait. You're upset that the Brewers can't trade multiple top prospects for 60 innings of pitching?

 

 

No I'm upset that it won't kill their franchise like it would the Brewers. They can get away with this crap and still keep a possibility of competiting. It's not how it should be.