2007 Draft Order

[Team Canada]

I was suggesting that they'd trade for him to have the first shot at re-signing him.

 

Same difference, really.

 

Either way, I don't think that's a very significant factor for most trades.

[foamboy1]

Did we lock up the 7th pick today?

[plowjockey]

Yep, looks like it can't move either way from 7.

[brewmann04]

withe the 7th pick the Milwaukee Brewers draft?

[foamboy1]

I defer to those with more knowledge.....Colby? Early guess?

[colbyjack]

I defer to those with more knowledge.....Colby? Early guess?

 

Sure, I'll offer my kiss of death in October http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . Check out my '06 draft recap & '07 early draft preview story that was up last week on the homepage. It doesn't really offer a prediction, but I do target one player that may fit the mold.

 

www.brewerfan.net/ViewArt...icleId=249

[colbyjack]

BTW, here's the final raw order for 2007:

 

1. D-Rays (.377)

2. Royals (.383)

3. Cubs (.407)

4. Pirates (.414)

5. Orioles (.432)

6. Nationals (.438)

7. Brewers (.463)

8. Rockies (.469)

9. D-Backs (.469)

10. Giants (.472)

11. Mariners (.481)

12. Marlins (.481)

13. Indians (.481)

14. Braves (.488)

15. Reds (.494)

16. Rangers (.494)

17. Astros (.506)

18. Cardinals (.516)

19. Phillies (.525)

20. Red Sox (.531)

21. Blue Jays (.537)

22. Dodgers (.543)

23. Padres (.543)

24. Angels (.549)

25. White Sox (.556)

26. A's (.574)

27. Tigers (.586)

28. Twins (.593)

29. Mets (.599)

30. Yankees (.599)

 

Will the D-Rays ever be good?

 

Not that this will make anyone feel any better about the '06 season, but the 25 point difference in winning % from the Nationals to the Brewers is the biggest leap between teams. So, you basically have six really, really, really bad teams picking before the Brewers get to make their pick.

[GagneCY03]

Nice writeup, CJ. I was a little surprised to see you list Vitters #1 in the prep ranks and Wieters over Price and Brackman. Although, Vitters impressed me in the AFLAC game. Now, the barrage of questions! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif

 

Do you see Vitters in a corner OF spot as a pro?

 

Do you see Justin Jackson hitting for power as a pro?

 

I'm really high on Matt Harvey and Tanner Robles. Think either of them will be there at #22?

 

Thanks in advance.

[colbyjack]

Vitters impressed me a lot this summer, not only for what I saw at the Aflac game, but how he performed at other major events as well. He's the best prep hitter IMO, even if he doesn't have the raw power of Michael Burgess. Vitters could be similar to someone like Jeff Cirillo (in his prime) or even Ryan Zimmerman.

 

That said, I don't know if Vitters sticks at 3B. He's not a great natural athlete, which is why you're not going to see him anywhere near the #1 overall ranking by other publications. I think there is a very strong chance that he ends up in left field.

 

No, I don't see Jackson hitting for power, but I don't think he will have to. I do think he will hit his fair share of doubles & triples.

 

I could see Harvey slipping to #22, but not Robles. Robles actually is likely to draw a lot of comparisons to Kershaw for their left-handedness, FB velocity, CB, etc. Robles could be the first prep pitcher off the board next June.

 

Harvey's FB is a little too straight at this point in time. But, it does come so easily out of his hand, unlike Michael Main, who is more of a max effort type guy. Harvey's CB isn't as refined as a lot of other prep pitchers from what I've seen, but the same was said about Jeffress at this point last year, and Harvey, like Jeffress, could be throwing triple digits come April.

 

I think Dodger fans are the only fans out there excited about getting prep pitchers.

 

Back to Wieters, I explain my reasoning in this thread (about half-way down the first page):

 

p092.ezboard.com/fbrewers...=918.topic

 

Keep in mind, I'm a huge fan of LHPs, so you know how much I like Wieters to put him ahead of Price. I can guarantee you that every other publication will have Price #1, and he could very well go first overall, but again, catchers like Wieters just are such an incredible rare commodity.

[lovehate]

Some recent # 7 picks

 

Clayton Kershaw

Troy Tulo

Homer Bailey

Nick Markakis

Prince

Chris Smith

Matt Harrington

Kyle Snyder

Austin Kearns

 

some nice names there, and their have been the Weavers and Drews(Boras types) that are usually passed on by a handful of teams

[GagneCY03]

Thanks for the response, CJ. I'm thinking Jackson, Vitters and Robles will be off the board by the time the Dodgers' pick rolls around. So Harvey will have to do. One thing I read about him is his changeup is pretty advanced for a HS senior. He struck out Freddie Freeman looking with it in the AFLAC game. And while he's raw, you cant help but project lots of good things for a kid his size with a present plus fastball.

 

On Wieters, do you have any concerns about his ability to stay behind the plate? And how would he compare to Joe Mauer?

[colbyjack]

On Wieters, do you have any concerns about his ability to stay behind the plate? And how would he compare to Joe Mauer?

 

No, I don't, but I know that is a popular subject. He is a very good athlete, more naturally athletic than Jeff Clement was coming out of college a few years ago, although Wieters is a much bigger person. I think that is where the concern comes from, because he is so tall (around 6'5" or so), and you just don't see catchers like that very often. Sandy Alomar was built like that and enjoyed a very long career, but I have not seen anything from Wieters that would make me want to move him to another position. I actually was impressed with the way he catches the times I have seen him, and he has improved since being at Georgia Tech.

 

I suppose you could compare him to Joe Mauer in that they are both bigger backstops, are fairly athletic, and can swing the bat. I think Mauer is a better overall athlete and probably will always hit for a better average. Wieters probably will hit for more power, while still maintaining a relatively high average (.280-.300 range). I've mentioned this before, but Jason Varitek is a more sound comparison to Wieters on so many different levels (switch hitters, the Georgia Tech connection, Varitek pitched in college, etc.). All three guys are praised for their leadership skills and overall character, which is another huge plus for a catcher.

 

The only way Wieters falls to the Dodgers is if he's advised by Scott Boras and/or suffers an injury next spring. In my mind, he's a top 2-3 pick overall, and you have to think the D-Rays, Royals and Cubs would all be very excited to get a player like him (the Pirates might be the first to truly pass since they already have hometown favorite Neil Walker moving up as a catcher).

[Katuluu]

While he isn't taller, Mauer is actually slightly bigger then Alomar was. Which makes his range and fluidity behind the plate even more impressive IMO.

[colbyjack]

Thanks Kat, I actually meant to comment on Mauer's size, since as you noted he too is a pretty big kid. Again as you noted, it a true testament to his athletic ability given the way he moves behind the plate. It is pretty exciting to have a guy like Mauer, and even McCann, playing these days, as they seem poised to take the torches from Pudge & Piazza (at least Piazza as a hitter) as the MLB's best catchers for the next 10-15 years.

 

And here everyone thought the Twins were crazy for passing on Mark Prior http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[GagneCY03]

Varitek seems perfect for Wieters. I didnt know Tek pitched in college. I havent seen him play, so I'm looking forward to catching some GT games next season.

[SoCalBrewfan]

And here everyone thought the Twins were crazy for passing on Mark Prior http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

Not just crazy, but cheap. As it turns out, for $5M less, they might have gotten the better long-term option. (That seems very likely right now but things can change.) A fascinating draft in retrospect, regarded at the time as having five premier talents who did go 1-5 overall. Of those Mauer is the big prize, Prior has had his moments, but Teixera at 5 overall is also looking like a good pick, and Gavid Floyd at #4 is at least a major leaguer (for all that I don't know what to make of him). And there are the D-Rays as the big loser with Brazelton at #3.

 

As I recall, BA rated the Tigers' draft as the best overall that year, but they have little to show after such expectations of Baugh, Woods, Larrison, Hannahan, and Raburn.

[GagneCY03]

Is it alright if I post BA's Top 50 list for next year's draft?

[colbyjack]

That content is subscriber-based only, so no, please don't post it. I think I posted the top 10 from the very same list a year ago if you want to go that far.

 

And as an FYI, I am currently working on Brewerfan.net's top 30 draft eligible prospects for 2007 which should be released in the next week or two and will officially kick off Brewerfan's coverage of the '07 draft. I'm through 17 right now.

[RyDogg66]

Sweet colby - when the forum change names to June 2007 draft?

[GagneCY03]

Awesome, CJ. Here comes the Top 10:

 

#1 David Price, lhp, Vanderbilt

#2 Matt Wieters, c, Georgia Tech

#3 Andrew Brackman, rhp, North Carolina State

#4 Matt Harvey, rhp, Fitch HS, Groton, Conn.

#5 Justin Jackson, ss, Roberson HS, Asheville, N.C.

#6 Michael Burgess, of, Hillsborough HS, Tampa

#7 Julio Borbon, of, Tennessee

#8 Joe Savery, lhp, Rice

#9 Daniel Moskos, lhp, Clemson

#10 Josh Vitters, 3b, Cypress (Calif.) HS

 

Obviously I was shocked to see Harvey so high. Nice to see Vitters getting some love. And Burgess should be there for the Brew Crew.

[colbyjack]

RyDogg, I'll change the forum name when the '07 draft coverage is officially released.

 

Gagne, Burgess won't be there for the Crew if he goes 6th http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[colbyjack]

By the way, since BA has released their early, early sneak preview, it reminds me of a thread from this time last year in which I showed this early projection in relationship to BA's early draft preview projection from February versus the actual picks from the years 2003-2005. Here's that breakdown, and I'll add the 2006 breakdown just below that for referece (I know I had some coding issues a year ago, and someone was kind enough to open up the text in notepad to correct it for me, so thanks in advance to whomever does that this year should my columns be messed up again):

 

EDIT: Coding sucks, a little help?

 

2003

 No. Sneak Preview Early Projection Actual 1 Rickie Weeks Rickie Weeks Delmon Young 2 Lastings Milledge Delmon Young Rickie Weeks 3 Delmon Young Adam Loewen Kyle Sleeth 4 Kyle Sleeth Kyle Sleeth Tim Stauffer 5 Michael Aubrey Lastings Milledge Chris Lubanski 6 Ryan Harvey Andrew Miller Ryan Harvey 7 Chris Lubanski Jared Hughes Nick Markakis 8 Jeff Allison Brad Sullivan Paul Maholm 9 Kyle Bakker Bobby Brownlie John Danks 10 Tim Stauffer Tim Stauffer Ian Stewart 11 Brad Sullivan Chris Lubanski Michael Aubrey 12 Matt Murton Ryan Harvey Lastings Milledge 13 Jeff Manship Michael Aubrey Aaron Hill 14 Chad Billingsley David Aardsma Ryan Wagner 15 Jared Hughes Jeff Allison Brian Anderson 16 David Aardsma Chad Billingsley Jeff Allison 17 Andrew Miller Landon Powell David Murphy 18 James Houser Jay Sborz Brad Snyder 19 Robert Lane Matt Murton Conor Jackson 20 Matt Brown Ryan Sweeney Chad Cordero 21 Landon Powell James Houser Matt Moses 22 Ryan Sweeney Paul Maholm David Aardsma 23 Carlos Quentin Kyle Bakker Brandon Wood 24 Tony Richie Craig Whitaker Chad Billingsley 25 Paul Maholm Jonathan Fulton Brad Sullivan 26 Aaron Hill Not available Brian Snyder 27 Craig Whitaker Not available Eric Duncan 28 Jonathan Fulton Not available Daric Barton 29 Conor Jackson Not available Carlos Quentin 30 Wes Littleton Not available Mitch Maier

 

2004

 No. Sneak Preview Early Projection Actual 1 Jeff Niemann Jeff Niemann Matt Bush 2 Jered Weaver Justin Verlander Justin Verlander 3 Wade Townsend Jered Weaver Phillip Humber 4 Stephen Drew Jeff Larish Jeff Niemann 5 Chris Nelson Nick Adenhart Mark Rogers 6 Nick Adenhart Stephen Drew Jeremy Sowers 7 Matt Bush Matt Bush Homer Bailey 8 Jeremy Sowers Wade Townsend Wade Townsend 9 Justin Verlander Jeremy Sowers Chris Nelson 10 Phillip Humber Greg Golson Thomas Diamond 11 Matt Durkin Phillip Humber Neil Walker 12 Justin Orenduff Homer Bailey Jered Weaver 13 Greg Golson Justin Orenduff Bill Bray 14 Thomas Diamond Chris Lambert Billy Butler 15 Andy Gale Michael Taylor Stephen Drew 16 Homer Bailey Huston Street David Purcey 17 Jeff Larish Micah Owings Scott Elbert 18 Jay Rainville Jay Rainville Josh Fields 19 Micah Owings Chuck Lofgren Chris Lambert 20 Michael Taylor Thomas Diamond Trevor Plouffe 21 Erik Davis Mark Rogers Greg Golson 22 Chris Lambert Andy Gale Glen Perkins 23 Eric Beattie Seth Smith Phillip Hughes 24 Chuck Lofgren Chris Nelson Landon Powell 25 Mark Rogers Phil Hughes Kyle Waldrop 26 Tyler Lumsden Eric Beattie Richie Robnett 27 Eric Patterson Eric Patterson Taylor Tankersly 28 Jeff Frazier Danny Putnam Blake DeWitt 29 Huston Street Scott Elbert Matt Campbell 30 Phil Hughes Kenn Kasparek Eric Hurley

 

2005

 No. Sneak Preview Early Projection Actual 1 Justin Upton Justin Upton Justin Upton 2 Cameron Maybin Cameron Maybin Alex Gordon 3 Alex Gordon Alex Gordon Jeff Clement 4 Jeff Clement Mike Pelfrey Ryan Zimmerman 5 Tyler Green Luke Hochevar Ryan Braun 6 Wade Townsend Tyler Greene Ricky Romero 7 Luke Hochevar Jeff Clement Troy Tulowitzki 8 Mike Pelfrey Wade Townsend Wade Townsend 9 Stephen Head Troy Tulowitzki Mike Pelfrey 10 Troy Tulowitzki Ryan Zimmerman Cameron Maybin 11 John Mayberry, Jr. Stephen Head Andrew McCutchen 12 Mark McCormick John Mayberry, Jr. Jay Bruce 13 Craig Hansen Sean O'Sullivan Brandon Snyder 14 Ryan Zimmerman Mark McCormick Trevor Crowe 15 Ryan Mullins Justin Bristow Lance Broadway 16 Sean O'Sullivan Craig Hansen Chris Volstad 17 Ricky Romero Jordan Danks C.J. Henry 18 Travis Buck Zach Putnam Cesar Carrillo 19 Miers Quigley Taylor Teagarden John Mayberry, Jr. 20 Justin Bristow Travis Buck Mark Pawelek 21 Cliff Pennington Brian Bogusevic Cliff Pennington 22 Chris Volstad Chris Volstad Aaron Thompson 23 Stephen Kahn Andrew McCutchen Jacoby Ellsbury 24 Andrew McCutchen Daniel Carte Brian Bogusevic 25 Brad Clark Brett Jacobson Matt Garza 26 Jordan Danks Austin Jackson Craig Hansen 27 Zach Putnam Brandon Snyder Joey Devine 28 Brad Corley Henry Sanchez Colby Rasmus 29 Brian Bogusevic Cliff Pennington Jacob Marceaux 30 Jed Lowrie David Adams Tyler Greene

 

2006

 No.        Sneak Preview                        Early Draft Preview                Actual 1.        Drew Stubbs                        Andrew Miller                        Luke Hochevar 2.        Andrew Miller                        Drew Stubbs                        Greg Reynolds 3.        Max Scherzer                        Max Scherzer                        Evan Longoria 4.        Jordan Walden                        Jordan Walden                        Brad Lincoln 5.        Daniel Bard                        Daniel Bard                        Brandon Morrow 6.        Matt Latos                        Chris Marrero                        Andrew Miller 7.        Wes Hodges                        Ian Kennedy                        Clayton Kershaw 8.        Ian Kennedy                        Brett Anderson                        Drew Stubbs 9.        Cody Johnson                        Kyle Drabek                        Billy Rowell 10.        Evan Longoria                        Evan Longoria                        Tim Lincecum 11.        Dallas Buck                        Matt LaPorta                        Max Scherzer 12.        Kyle Drabek                        Matt Latos                        Kasey Kiker 13.        Brandon Morrow                Wes Hodges                        Tyler Colvin 14.        Brett Anderson                        Brandon Morrow                Travis Snider 15.        Matt LaPorta                        Dallas Buck                        Chris Marrero 16.        Kyle McCulloch                Chris Tillman                        Jeremy Jeffress 17.        Chris Tillman                        Kyle McCulloch                Matt Antonelli 18.        Blair Erickson                        Joba Chamberlain                Kyle Drabek 19.        Bryan Morris                        Dellin Betances                Brett Sinkbeil 20.        Brad Lincoln                        Jeremy Jeffress                Chris Parmelee 21.        Joba Chamberlain                Cody Johnson                        Ian Kennedy 22.        Dellin Betances                Brad Lincoln                        Colton Willems 23.        Jeremy Jeffress                Mark Melancon                Max Sapp 24.        Chris Marrero                        Hank Conger                        Cody Johnson 25.        Mark Melancon                Jared Hughes                        Hank Conger 26.        Colin Curtis                        Greg Reynolds                        Bryan Morris 27.        Shawn Tolleson                Chris Parmelee                Jason Place 28.        Chris Errecart                        Jason Donald                        Daniel Bard 29.        Kasey Kiker                        Blair Erickson                        Kyle McCulloch 30.        Jason Donald                        Kasey Kiker                        Adam Ottavino

[colbyjack]

I bring this up to show how much the sneak preview and early projection is off from the final results. Usually the big names at the top don't change that much, but after the first few picks everything else can change significantly.

 

In 2003 the Orioles took Nick Markakis with the 7th pick. While Markakis has turned into a pretty solid player and an astute pick, he was considered somewhat of a reach on draft day, although the O's had just signed Adam Loewen to a lucrative deal as a DFE, and needed to save a few hundred thousand dollars. Of the other top 10 overall picks, John Danks and Ian Stewart also were not ranked in the top 25-30 of the two early projections.

 

In 2004 there were no real surprises, as the top 10 actual picks were all players ranked in the initial top 30.

 

In 2005 Ryan Braun was the only player to go within the top 10 picks that wasn't in either of the top 30 players of the early projections.

 

This past year, which was considered a down year, and an extremely fluid year, Greg Reynolds wasn't among the top 30 in the sneak preview, but was among the top 30 in BA's early draft preview. Clayton Kershaw, Billy Rowell and Tim Lincecum weren't among the top 30 in either early projection.

 

From a Brewers point of view, it should be noted that this is related to either their pick (Braun) or their first-round slot for next year (7th overall, Markakis in '03, Kershaw in '06). That may not mean a darn thing, but it's still interesting to look at how these rankings have historically held up over 8 months of time.

[GagneCY03]

Thanks for posting those lists, CJ. I'm fascinated by how and why players' draft stock fluctuates. There are factors outside of actual playing that affect stock, like injury or signability, but it's fun to try to pick which ones will rise, fall and stay the same.

[molitor fan]

The 2003 projection that shocked me was Kyle Bakker - the very tall pitcher that I believe is now out of baseball....I got a chance to talk with his mother for about 2 hours when we were on a 4 person van tour of Washington DC in February of 2004, and she was a crazy, but nice, lady.