2007 Draft Order

[colbyjack]

It's August 1st, so it's time to look at next year's draft order as it stands right now. If nothing else, it's interesting to look at this just to see how the teams stack up with one another. I think the teams that stand out to me are the Cleveland Indians and the Atlanta Braves, who were expected to be much better than what they are. The Braves in particular haven't drafted this high since they had the #2 overall pick in 1991. The Royals seem poised to hold the #1 pick two years in a row.

 

1. Royals (.352)

2. Pirates (.377)

3. Cubs (.410)

4. D-Rays (.415)

5. Indians (.433)

6. Nationals (.443)

7. Orioles (.449)

8. Braves (.462)

9. Marlins (.467)

10. Astros (.467)

11. Phillies (.471)

12. Brewers (.472)

13. Dodgers (.476)

14. Giants (.481)

15. Rockies (.486)

16. Rangers (.491)

17. Mariners (.495)

18. D-Backs (.514)

19. Angels (.514)

20. Reds (.524)

21. Padres (.524)

22. A's (.528)

23. Blue Jays (.543)

24. Cardinals (.558)

25. Twins (.587)

26. White Sox (.596)

27. Yankees (.598)

28. Mets (.606)

29. Red Sox (.606)

30. Tigers (.667)

 

Keep in mind, tie-breakers are awarded to the team that finished worse the year before. Interesting that the break for over-.500 teams and sub-.500 teams is the 18th slot. Last year at this time I believe the cutoff was 12 or 13 IIRC. Only five teams in the NL are above .500, eight in the AL.

[PrimetimeHater]

Thanks Colby, is their a place that has some rankings of college players, or at least a list of "players to look out for"? Isn't David Price from Vandy supposed to be one of the top talents for next years draft?

[colbyjack]

Price is the #1 prospect available for next June if you ask me, and a lot of other people for that matter. Matt Wieters, a catcher for Georgia Tech, is going to be right up there are well. LHP James Adkins (Tennessee), LHP/1B Joe Savery (Rice), LHP Nick Schmidt (Arkansas), RHP Andrew Brackman (NC State) and catcher JP Arencibia (Tennessee) are a few other names to remember.

 

Baseball America had a sneak peek list of the top 10-12 high school and college prospects for 2007 in their 2006 draft preview, but that list by now is already outdated I'm sure. Michael Main is the top prep player to watch (a reminder the Aflac All-American Classic is coming up where you have the chance to watch the top 38 prep players in the nation on Saturday August 12th).

 

PG Crosschecker already has a pretty substantial list of the top '07's. You need a subscription, but it's worth it:

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/

 

When I write my annual draft preview towards the end of September I will also have a quick preview of the '07 talent.

[colbyjack]

I just wanted to point out that if the draft we held today (8/22) the Brewers would still draft 12th overall next June, so they're holding steady with the rest of the teams in MLB since the beginning of the month.

 

The Brewers took Mike Jones 12th overall in 2001. Here are the 12th overall picks since then:

 

'02: Joe Saunders

'03: Lastings Milledge

'04: Jered Weaver

'05: Jay Bruce

'06: Kasey Kiker

 

Not a bad list of names.

[colbyjack]

Ugh. A very, very bad week has caused the Brewers to plummet in the standings, and unfortunately improve their draft status for next year. Here are the updated standings (standings assume Rockies hold on to beat the Mets this evening, the only game still in progress...if not, the Rockies would have the 7th slot and the Brewers would have the 8th slot).

 

Games through the end of August:

 

1. Royals (.363)

2. D-Rays (.396)

3. Pirates (.396)

4. Cubs (.406)

5. Nats (.421)

6. O's (.451)

7. Brewers (.463)

8. Rockies (.466)

9. M's (.474)

10. Braves (.477)

11. Indians (.477)

12. D-Backs (.481)

13. Marlins (.489)

14. Giants (.493)

15. Astros (.493)

16. Reds (.500)

17. Phillies (.504)

18. Rangers (.511)

19. Padres (.511)

20. Blue Jays (.515)

21. Angels (.522)

22. Dodgers (.534)

23. Red Sox (.537)

24. Cardinals (.538)

25. A's (.579)

26. Twins (.583)

27. White Sox (.586)

28. Yankees (.598)

29. Tigers (.619)

30. Mets (.621)

 

Brewer fans can take some solace in the fact that the Brewers took Prince Fielder 7th overall.

 

It is really, really weird to see the Braves that high (low).

[brewmann04]

we still got sept we could be looking at a top 5 maybe

[Team Canada]

Any higher than 6 would be a real (anti-)feat. We'll probably end up somewhere in 7-9.

[plowjockey]

1/2 game away from 6 as of tonite. The only thing worth cheering for now is draft order.

[mothershipconnection]

Well, at least there isn't a big penalty for signing a type-A FA this winter.

[sbrylski]

I'm just going to pray we take a college player this year. I don't know much about the prospects, but that Wieters (or whatever) would be my blind target based on the fact that he's a highly regarded college catcher.

[colbyjack]

Wieters is in the class of Alex Gordon & Mark Teixeira as a slugger coming out of college. Even if he is represented by Scott Boras it's unlikely he falls to the Brewers slot (which more & more likely looks to be the 7th overall pick).

[colbyjack]

The Brewers continue to sink, now with a .450 winning percentage, but they are holding steady with the 7th overall pick. There is a little bit of space between the Nationals ahead of them and the Rockies behind them.

 

Games as played through 9/17 (as of 7:15 pm, with the exception of the Yankees/Red Sox game, as both teams are currently tied with the Mets and Cardinals respectively):

 

1. D-Rays

2. Royals

3. Cubs

4. Pirates

5. Orioles

6. Nationals

7. Brewers

8. Rockies

9. Indians

10. Mariners

11. D-Backs

12. Astros

13. Braves

14. Reds

15. Marlins

16. Giants

17. Rangers

18. Phillies

19. Dodgers

20. Padres

21. Blue Jays

22. Angels

23. Red Sox*

24. Cardinals

25. White Sox

26. A's

27. Twins

28. Tigers

29. Mets

30. Yankees

 

If the D-Rays hold onto to top spot, it would mark the third time in their short existence that they would own the first overall pick. With all of those high first round picks alone you would think they would have had a better fate. I know the AL East is tough, but still...

[GagneCY03]

Hey CJ. Long time no chat. What do you think of the speculation regarding doing away with free agent compensation? Think it'll go through? Or is it just more rumor than anything else?

[DHonks]

just to interrupt...has there been any new discussion of free agent compensation? they agreed to change the draft rules, pending further agreements in the last CBA. I haven't heard the draft mentioned at all. In fact, the only topic I've heard this time is working on improving the revenue sharing systems from both sides' perspectives.

[colbyjack]

Here's a PDf link to the current CBA. I can't read it right now for whatever reason, but in there they have the content of what was supposed to happen to the draft:

 

mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf...nglish.pdf

 

Someone else emailed me about the supposed elimination of compensation picks. Has this come from any particular source? As far as I know, there are no new plans to change the draft. I remember last year they talked about bumping the draft back to the end of June instead of the beginning of the month, and I don't even remember the reasons as to why they were going to do that (maybe to let the college season finish?).

 

It should be noted that among the changes talked about is the institution of the World-Wide Draft. That wasn't just talk, I remember it clearly being stated in the CBA. Of course, none of the changes were ever made.

[GagneCY03]

I'm not able to read pdf files myself. The source I found didnt seem overly reliable, but it was a source nonetheless. Was an online column, but I cant find the link. Hopefully it never comes to be. Would add another link in the "rich getting richer" chain.

[filthyfrog]

While this probably deserves its own thread, I just wanted to mention that's it not completely obvious that doing away with free agent compensation would help the "rich get richer." While compensation helps when you're losing a FA, it also deters small budget teams from signing FAs. Also, the large market teams lose FAs a lot more often than the small market teams. Look at the compensation round every year. While Oakland usually has a pick, so do Boston, both New Yorks and Chicagos, etc. It's almost all large market teams getting compensated for losing FAs.

 

Also related is the fact that you have to offer arbitration in order to get compensated. Small market teams often don't offer arby to their overpriced FAs because they're afraid the offer will be accepted. That's another reason compensation helps the big teams more than the small teams.

[GagneCY03]

I should clarify. The rich get richer remark was related to the players, not the large market teams. My belief is the player's association is behind this move, insisting that the compensation lowers players' value to prospective teams, which may be true. But it also would keep small market teams from receiving any real type of compensation from losing valuable free agents. Trade offers would be minimal, as other teams would know that they'd have to give up nothing, not even a draft pick, to sign the guy through FA.

 

However, it also benefits large market teams more than small market teams, since Type A free agents command salaries in excess of what most small market teams can afford. If a Type A free agent is offered arbitration, there's probably no chance it will be accepted. And large market teams (For the most part) could care less if they dont get compensated for losing a free agent, as they could just sign another one far easier than a small market team.

[Team Canada]

Trade offers would be minimal, as other teams would know that they'd have to give up nothing, not even a draft pick, to sign the guy through FA.

 

Usually you're really trading for their services the rest of that year, not the possibility of signing them when the season ends. Teams really aren't going to not sign some star because they have to give up a draft pick or two.

[colbyjack]

I've offered a few suggestions before about how the draft could be changed. I do believe the compensation structure is a little flawed for the reasons already pointed out.

 

I think they should get rid of losing draft picks due to signing free agents. As noted above, a small market team has to offer their free agents arbitration anyway, and some teams won't sign free agents because they may lose a first or second round pick in doing so.

 

I do believe there should be compensatory picks, however not like there are currently. I think they should be more similar to the NFL, in which free agents lost are weighed against free agents acquired. For instance, if the Yankees were to lose a type A and a type B free agent, yet they go out and sign one of each, they receive no compensatory picks. If the Royals lose two type A free agents yet they sign no one (or marginal players), they receive two compensatory picks after the first round. Try to set up some system that accurately awards what kind of picks a team receives by using the Elias Sports Bureau values that determine whether a player is a type A, B or C free agent. Meaning, if the players lost have collective value of 150, and the players signed have a collective value of 120, the 30 point difference may be the difference between receiving a pick after the first, second or third round, or none at all.

 

Does that make a lick of sense?

 

Removing compensation picks would also shorten the sandwich round and give the worse teams a better chance at a better player with their early second round picks.

 

I would also shorten the draft to at least 40 rounds, possibly 30 (35 sounds like a happy medium). Shortening the draft to 20 rounds would be no fun, as it would essentially eliminate the DFE process. I'm still opposed to the worldwide draft and trading picks.

[GagneCY03]

Quote:

---

Usually you're really trading for their services the rest of that year, not the possibility of signing them when the season ends. Teams really aren't going to not sign some star because they have to give up a draft pick or two.

---

 

Of course, and my point was teams would feel even less compelled to trade for the guy knowing they could sign him in the offseason without losing a draft pick. It all relates back to the large market teams having it easier than the small market teams.

 

CJ, I do like your idea. The NFL system seems to do very well and be very fair. It would greatly help small market teams that lose big named FA's but cant sign similar players to replace them. Instead of teams losing picks, they only gain picks. I dont see how everyone wouldnt be happy with that. Email Selig immediately! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Now you got me thinking about this. The formula could go as follows:

 

If a team acquires a player of equal or greater value, no compensation is awarded.

 

If a team loses a Type A free agent and acquires a Type B free agent, a third round compensatory pick is awarded.

If a team loses a Type A free agent and acquires a Type C free agent, a second round compensatory pick is awarded.

If a team loses a Type A free agent and no Type A, B or C free agents are acquired, a first round compensatory pick is awarded.

 

If a team loses a Type B free agent and acquires a Type C free agent, a third round compensatory pick is awarded.

If a team loses a Type B free agent and no Type A, B or C free agents are acquired, a second round compensatory pick is awarded.

 

If a team loses a Type C free agent and no Type A, B or C free agents are acquired, a third round compensatory pick is awarded.

 

What do you think?

[Team Canada]

Of course, and my point was teams would feel even less compelled to trade for the guy knowing they could sign him in the offseason without losing a draft pick. It all relates back to the large market teams having it easier than the small market teams.

 

I think you missed my point. The large market teams aren't trading for a guy so that they can offer him arby the next year, they're trading for the pennant race THIS year. Maybe they'll resign him, maybe they won't. That's not the real point.

[GagneCY03]

Quote:

---

The large market teams aren't trading for a guy so that they can offer him arby the next year

---

 

That wasnt my point. Small market teams would try to trade a player who will be a FA at the end of the year if they cant get compensated for him. But large market teams who would want to sign him would feel less compelled to give up significant value since they wouldnt lose anything in the way of draft picks if they wait till he hits the market. Hope that clears things up.

[Team Canada]

But large market teams who would want to sign him would feel less compelled to give up significant value since they wouldnt lose anything in the way of draft picks if they wait till he hits the market.

 

I understand what you're saying, but usually teams are trading for postseason runs, not because they want the opportunity to offer him arby after the season's over.

[GagneCY03]

Quote:

---

I understand what you're saying, but usually teams are trading for postseason runs, not because they want the opportunity to offer him arby after the season's over.

---

 

I wasnt suggesting that they'd trade for a player to offer him arbitration. I was suggesting that they'd trade for him to have the first shot at re-signing him.