Segura's defensive value at 2B

[Crash2303]

If we trade Gennett anytime soon and move Segura over to 2B (to let Sardinas play SS for a year until Arcia is ready), how good could Segura be at 2B? he has been mediocre at SS, but could a switch to 2B make him one of the top defensive 2B in the game? if so, would moving to a less premiere position actually increase his trade value or even influence it at all? either way- any way you configure it, we're set to improve quite a bit up the middle once gennett is gone.

[pacopete4]

If we found a left handed bat at 3B and 1B, I'd be all over a Arcia/Segura middle of the IF. I just don't think Sardinas is ever going to be the guy there but could be a great utility man filling in all over the diamond. The problem I have with Segura and until it changed, it will continue is that he has failed to learn any patience at the plate. It is almost like he refuses to. If he doesn't hit for a high average, he's worthless.

[MrTPlush]

He isn't even that great at SS. A move to 2nd base would make his defense better, but it would not cover up the fact he is one of the worst offensive players in baseball. The offense is just not acceptable at any position. It would just balance out to them same value he has now. Great defense, but now at a less premium position.

[JohnBriggs12]

If we found a left handed bat at 3B and 1B, I'd be all over a Arcia/Segura middle of the IF. I just don't think Sardinas is ever going to be the guy there but could be a great utility man filling in all over the diamond. The problem I have with Segura and until it changed, it will continue is that he has failed to learn any patience at the plate. It is almost like he refuses to. If he doesn't hit for a high average, he's worthless.

 

You correctly point out the fact that the lineup is short on LH bats, but even 2 really isn't enough against tough RH pitching. Most lineups facing RH pitchers have at least 3 LH bats. Many have 4. Gennett is a bit more of an extra base threat, and the real strength of Segura's defense is his cannon arm which would be marginalized at 2B. Neither Gennett nor Segura has patience, but give me Scooter's better lifetime BA (.287 to .266) and considerably higher SP(.424 to .360) at least vs RHP.

 

Sardinas just doesn't generate any power and he still needs a little defensive refinement. I like his athleticism but he needs to add some strength to generate some extra base hits to be an everyday major leaguer. I think he belongs in AAA for now playing everyday. He's still just 22.

[pacopete4]

You correctly point out the fact that the lineup is short on LH bats, but even 2 really isn't enough against tough RH pitching. Most lineups facing RH pitchers have at least 3 LH bats. Many have 4. Gennett is a bit more of an extra base threat, and the real strength of Segura's defense is his cannon arm which would be marginalized at 2B. Neither Gennett nor Segura has patience, but give me Scooter's better lifetime BA (.287 to .266) and considerably higher SP(.424 to .360) at least vs RHP.

 

My hopes would be that if we had lefties at 3B and 1B that Phillips would be very close to taking over in CF and he'd be our third. Add in hopefully that Sardinas is ready as a switch hitter is on the bench and can fill in anywhere and all of a sudden we have our balanced lineup.

 

I agree here too. Gennett probably doesnt get enough credit for his power being such a little guy. I just do not like his defense and if we are building a ground ball rotation, I want to see the best defense we can get (with some offense). I just don't think Gennett is that guy.

[3and2Fastball]

Is Segura really that mediocre defensively at SS? I would think his bat or lack thereof would negate his defense at 2B

[jerichoholicninja]

If we're trading Gennett, moving Segura to 2B is a lateral move at best, probably a downgrade. Scooter has consistently outhit Segura during their careers to the tune of 80 more OPS points and 21 more OPS+ points. If you look at WAR, Scooter has 4 in his career to Segura's 4.8, despite Segura playing almost twice as much. I'll give you Segura would be a defensive upgrade but that won't make up for the amount of offense lost. Also, why keep the guy with less years of control who's going to start getting expensive? I personally wouldn't be disappointed to see Segura non-tendered this offseason.

[reillymcshane]

Major League second basemen produced an OPS of .709 in 2015. Shortstops produced an OPS of .688.

 

Segura has rated about average defensively - even a bit above average - as a shortstop. I think his value probably lies at that position since his poor offense would be even more exposed at 2B, and the potential defensive improvement he'd have at 2B wouldn't offset his anemic bat. A guess a lot depends on how much better he is at 2B than other players. I don't know if players go from SS to 2B and change that dramatically as a defender. I'm thinking an average SS can become a good 2B - but rarely do they suddenly go from average SS to awesome 2B.

 

At this point, I think you're best letting Segura and Scooter play everyday in 2016 since right now their trade value is pretty limited. However, if both can do better, they could fetch something much better mid-season or next off season.

[MrTPlush]

Most of his errors are throwing errors so I would assume those would be cut down. Then again a lot of those throwing errors were just dumb throws he couldn't make so maybe it doesn't change. The only way I would put Jean Segura at 2B is purely for defensive value and if we were a contending team that was well set everywhere else on the diamond. Then maybe that defensive value would be what we would prefer since the rest of the offense can pick up the slack. It would also help if we had ground ball pitchers too. We aren't in the position for that and paying Segura $3mil this year and even more in future years doesn't make a lot of sense if you ask me.

 

Then again Alcides Escobar was just as worthless this year in the regular season and everyone thinks he is great so what do I know.

[jerichoholicninja]

Major League second basemen produced an OPS of .709 in 2015. Shortstops produced an OPS of .688.

 

Segura has rated about average - even a bit above average - as a shortstop. I think his value probably lies at that position since his poor offense would be even more exposed at 2B, and the potential defensive improvement he'd have at 2B wouldn't offset his anemic bat. A guess a lot depends on how much better he is at 2B than other players. I don't know if players go from SS to 2B and change that dramatically as a defender. I'm thinking an average SS can become a good 2B - but rarely do they suddenly go from average SS to awesome 2B.

 

At this point, I think you're best letting Segura and Scooter play everyday in 2016 since right now their trade value is pretty limited. However, if both can do better, they could fetch something much better mid-season or next off season.

 

Do you mean this in reference to defense and/or overall value because his back to back .614 and .616 OPS seasons are well below average for SS.

[monty57]

At this point, I think you're best letting Segura and Scooter play everyday in 2016 since right now their trade value is pretty limited. However, if both can do better, they could fetch something much better mid-season or next off season.

 

I'd start the season with Segura and Gennett, but SS is going to be Arcia's position soon, and that could easily be mid-season 2016. Therefore, Segura is playing for his future. If he plays well, we could trade him when Arcia is ready. If he does not play well, he'll probably be relegated to utility IF and likely DFA'd next offseason as his price tag will be too high to pay for a utility IF.

 

As to the initial post, I would rather keep Gennett over Segura. As a platoon player (which he always should have been), Gennett can put up decent numbers. Segura has proven that outside of a few months at the start of his career with the Brewers, he is a very replaceable player who is probably best suited as a backup. Unfortunately for the Brewers, the arbitration panel will see that he has been a starter his whole career and will pay him as such.

[reillymcshane]

Major League second basemen produced an OPS of .709 in 2015. Shortstops produced an OPS of .688.

 

Segura has rated about average - even a bit above average - as a shortstop. I think his value probably lies at that position since his poor offense would be even more exposed at 2B, and the potential defensive improvement he'd have at 2B wouldn't offset his anemic bat. A guess a lot depends on how much better he is at 2B than other players. I don't know if players go from SS to 2B and change that dramatically as a defender. I'm thinking an average SS can become a good 2B - but rarely do they suddenly go from average SS to awesome 2B.

 

At this point, I think you're best letting Segura and Scooter play everyday in 2016 since right now their trade value is pretty limited. However, if both can do better, they could fetch something much better mid-season or next off season.

 

Do you mean this in reference to defense and/or overall value because his back to back .614 and .616 OPS seasons are well below average for SS.

Good catch. I meant defensively - not overall (I corrected the post). In his career his Defensive Runs save is a cumulative of 1. Last year, defensively he was ranked 13th of 23 shortstops that qualified by Fangraphs.

 

I think it's important to remember that SS is probably the most difficult position to fill (except maybe catcher). Your pool of shortstops is small compared to 2B or wherever. Thus, a decent fielding SS still offers value.

 

Overall Segura is below average due to his hitting, but if he can improve a little, he could start creeping up to that 'average (overall' zone, which would improve his value a lot. A low .600 OPS just isn't attractive to anyone unless the guy is a gold glover.

[torts]

I think the issue is not how segura does at 2B, its finding someone who would actually trade for Gennett

[jerichoholicninja]

I think the issue is not how segura does at 2B, its finding someone who would actually trade for Gennett

 

A .796 career OPS versus the handed pitcher that you face 75%+ of the time is tradeable.

[Funketown]

At this point you have to imagine Segura's only value (if any) is his ability to field decently at SS.

 

Among all players with 300 PA's, he was 13th from last in wRC+ in 2015. He was 9th from last in wRC+ among all players with 300+ PA's in 2014.

 

I guess I just don't see the point.

[LouisEly]

Baseball Prospectus has a defensive metric called Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA):

 

"The biggest difference between Fielding Runs Above Average and similar defensive metrics comes in the data and philosophy used. Whereas other metrics use zone-based fielding data, Fielding Runs Above Average ignores that data due to the numerous biases present. Fielding Runs Above Average instead focuses on play-by-play data, taking a step back and focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position. The pitcher's groundball tendencies, batter handedness, park, and base-out state all go into figuring out how many plays an average player at a position would make."

 

Over his 479 game career, Jean Segura has a FRAA of 54.8. Andrelton Simmons, over his 499 game career, has a FRAA of 51.2. Alcides Escobar, over his 973 game career, has a FRAA of -7.2.

 

If this stat is accurate - and I don't know if it is or isn't - then Segura is one of the best defensive SS in the game.

[jerichoholicninja]

Baseball Prospectus has a defensive metric called Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA):

 

"The biggest difference between Fielding Runs Above Average and similar defensive metrics comes in the data and philosophy used. Whereas other metrics use zone-based fielding data, Fielding Runs Above Average ignores that data due to the numerous biases present. Fielding Runs Above Average instead focuses on play-by-play data, taking a step back and focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position. The pitcher's groundball tendencies, batter handedness, park, and base-out state all go into figuring out how many plays an average player at a position would make."

 

Over his 479 game career, Jean Segura has a FRAA of 54.8. Andrelton Simmons, over his 499 game career, has a FRAA of 51.2. Alcides Escobar, over his 973 game career, has a FRAA of -7.2.

 

If this stat is accurate - and I don't know if it is or isn't - then Segura is one of the best defensive SS in the game.

 

I can't buy into a stat that says Escobar has negative defensive value. I didn't read more into it but the description you've posted says nothing about how shifts are figured in but it does say it focuses on the number of plays made. Brewer shifts probably inflate the number of plays Segura makes because he's positioned in the right spot.

[MrTPlush]

It ranks Segura above Simmons...need we really look into this stat anymore? Seems to me like it is a pretty misleading stat.

[logan82]

It looks slightly better than F%. It compares plays made to the average plays by a player at that position. Not very useful.

[pacopete4]

Some of these stats are just hard to wrap my head around. I watch Segura on a daily basis and know that he is a solid SS. Nothing special but not as doom and gloom as many want to make it out to be. He is a major league SS defensively and if he just hits a little better, offensively as well.

[clancyphile]

I've always wondered if a platoon of Segura and Gennett at second base might maximize their bats.

[sveumrules]

Segura has pretty even career splits (271/301/361 vs RHP, 251/303/359 vs LHP) so the only real benefit of platooning him with Scooter would be the defensive upgrade and not having to watch Scooter face LHP. While Jean is a clear upgrade over Scooter vs LHP, his 662 OPS vs LHP is well below the MLB average for RHB facing LHP which has hovered around 715 since Segura has been a starter.