Baseball America (Haudricourt) Reveal Brewers Top 10 Prospects

[ZBTMP]

This may deserve its own thread but I'll put it here for awareness. BA released their Brewers top 10 list and has a jsonline er... I mean BA chat with Haudricourt today.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects/

[And That]

Cody Ponce at #7 is probably the biggest surprise.

 

The 6-foot-6 Ponce aggressively pounded the strike zone with high-octane stuff at Wisconsin, issuing few walks while not shying away from contact. He has the size and four-pitch mix that scouts look for in a starter, including an explosive fastball in the mid-90s and an effective cutter he throws in the upper 80s that some scouts have called a slider. His fastball doesn’t have much movement, but Ponce aggressively works both sides of the plate. He mixes in an erratic, 11-to-5 curveball and at times a changeup. He missed time early in his junior season with shoulder fatigue but profiles as a durable starter.

[reillymcshane]

Cody Ponce at #7 is probably the biggest surprise.

 

The 6-foot-6 Ponce aggressively pounded the strike zone with high-octane stuff at Wisconsin, issuing few walks while not shying away from contact. He has the size and four-pitch mix that scouts look for in a starter, including an explosive fastball in the mid-90s and an effective cutter he throws in the upper 80s that some scouts have called a slider. His fastball doesn’t have much movement, but Ponce aggressively works both sides of the plate. He mixes in an erratic, 11-to-5 curveball and at times a changeup. He missed time early in his junior season with shoulder fatigue but profiles as a durable starter.

I said last July that Ponce would be our best starter by next summer.

 

Ponce went to a small college and never needed to use his secondary pitches much. His fastball was all he really needed. A baseball writer I know talked to some scouts who were very high on Ponce and his ability to expand his repertoire. They saw the ability in college - just not often. He didn't need to throw 30 sliders (or whatever pitch) in a game - just three or four. It's just a matter of time before he works out his secondary pitches (we hope) - and he can really become a hot prospect.

 

That's my pie-in-the-sky dream of Ponce.

 

With Lopez really emerging, plus all the extra arms, perhaps he won't be the best prospect we have - but I'm banking he'll be one of the best.

[Jenkins5]

List:

1. Orlando Arcia, ss

2. Jorge Lopez, rhp

3. Trent Clark, of

4. Brett Phillips, of

5. Gilbert Lara, ss

6. Kodi Medeiros, lhp

7. Tyrone Taylor, of

8. Clint Coulter, of

9. Cody Ponce, rhp

10. Devin Williams, rhp

 

I think there are a few surprises. Brett Phillips is consider by almost all outlets AT WORSE a Top 50 prospect in MILB. Many in the 20-40 range. Mid-Season BA had Phillips at #21. So either Lopez and Clark are now considered top 20-30 prospects in MILB or Maverick stock completely dropped out after being traded....with the way he performed I don't see that.

 

Ponce I see, I have him in the teens now but expected him to rocket up this season. I honestly think there is very little chance he is not in AA by June/July.

 

Honestly, I just give up on all the Hader haters out there. I don't know how much more dominate a pitcher needs to be. I'm not talking Brett Suter, 100% command guy not much stuff type. I am talking about a 96-98 mph lefty with some nasty off-speed pitches who rakes up K's like they are nothing and almost never has an opposing batting average over .200. Only thing that comes and goes a little bit too much is his command. With that said his walk totals aren't troubling enough not to consider him front end. He is same age a Ponce (21) except he has already dominated AA, at 20 he was only good enough to be California League Pitcher of the year. If they don't like his arm slot....ask Sale and MadBum how it has worked for them. Maybe it is the hair....DeGrom shows how the swagger of the flow works. The don't like his secondary stuff... that can be debated. In no way do I think at this point Kodi or Devin should be ranked above him.

 

This will be a big year for Tyrone Taylor and Coulter. My guess is both will be in AA. Taylor needs to come out hitting like a man on fire otherwise he will really drop of the radar. Coulter needs to prove it was merely the struggles of being in BC that hurt him. Much like a pitcher in Colorado Springs.

[homer]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects/

 

1. Arcia

2. Lopez

3. Clark

4. Philips

5. Lara

6. Medeiros

7. Taylor

8. Coulter

9. Ponce

10. D. Williams

 

You can read a good chunk of the article without subscribing. John Manuel's tweet said "Much-improved @Brewers system has one of the best Top 10s in the game;"

[ZBTMP]

I think there are a few surprises. Brett Phillips is consider by almost all outlets AT WORSE a Top 50 prospect in MILB. Many in the 20-40 range. Mid-Season BA had Phillips at #21. So either Lopez and Clark are now considered top 20-30 prospects in MILB or Maverick stock completely dropped out after being traded....with the way he performed I don't see that.

Clark ranking ahead of him seems odd, but BA did rank Lopez ahead of Berrios (preseason #36, midseason #19) and Stephenson (preseason #23, midseason #36) on the Southern League list so I would expect a top 20-40 ranking with him when end of season comes out.

[reillymcshane]

I think there are a few surprises. Brett Phillips is consider by almost all outlets AT WORSE a Top 50 prospect in MILB. Many in the 20-40 range. Mid-Season BA had Phillips at #21. So either Lopez and Clark are now considered top 20-30 prospects in MILB or Maverick stock completely dropped out after being traded....with the way he performed I don't see that.

Clark ranking ahead of him seems odd, but BA did rank Lopez ahead of Berrios (preseason #36, midseason #19) and Stephenson (preseason #23, midseason #36) on the Southern League list so I would expect a top 20-40 ranking with him when end of season comes out.

I love Clark, and when I did my initial rankings on the last poll, I had him ahead of Phillips. Then I looked at Phillips numbers again - 60 extra base hits in 2014, and 64 last year. I realize some of those numbers have come in hitter friendly environments, but that's insanely impressive. And even if Phillips doesn't develop that much power, that kind of hitting is going to play in the big leagues.

 

That all said, Phillips' power did plummet after going to AA, so that's probably dinging him in some eyes. Still, he had 23 xbh on 214 ABs at AA (only 1 HR), so I'm excited about his potential.

 

I also don't want to let a really nice half a season overwhelm my expectations for Clark. It's easy to do that. I still think the guy is going to be really good, but I just want to temper my enthusiasm and see a little more of a track record.

[Crash2303]

yes, cool to see Lopez get some love at #2 and that Coulter is still respected enough to be in the top 10. agree a little odd that clark is above Phillips, but agree with YoungGeezy1 that Hader not in the top 10 is the biggest surprise.

[BeerSlide]

Does Tom solely compile this list, provide some input, just write the summary, only conduct the chat? Just curious. As someone who frames the concept of a "prospect" with emphasis on ceiling/potential, I would personally have Orimoloye in my 10 and probably bump down Coulter based on trends after his 2015 April.

[Mass Haas]

The accompanying BA chat transcript with Tom

[markedman5]

Any chance that was really Josh Hader asking the question? Lol

[ZBTMP]

Its nice (I think) to have a beat writer who is knowledgeable and follows the minor league system, but it would be nice if they would have someone with a scouting background who focuses on minor league coverage do the chats. Tom takes time to answer a lot of questions, but I doubt his js assignment gives him much time to go watch a Biloxi game ..

*Doesn't know a ton about Nash Walters

*Iskenderian’s name mentioned but no insight as to what they mentioned

*Who knows? If they would consider moving Collymore. He "has played well", but needs to hear more about him?

*Not sure about Tucker Neuhaus, no mention of how he can improve

*Not sure Ventura's stuff will allow him to stay as a starter, but no mention about what is limiting him or about his stuff at all.

 

Some insights (Medeiros has less doubters, Brewers think Diplan will stick as a starter), but could use more scouting and hearsay from the organization

[CheezWizHed]

but could use more scouting and heresy from the organization

 

Like chicken sacrifice???

 

http://gobuccos.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/jobu.jpg

[Jenkins5]

All those Hader questions and upset fans and none of them were the ones I sent! #Hadernation #Uproar

[paul253]

Nice list. Lots of talent to be excited about.

 

On a side note the whole "use a players name as your name and pretend you are that player asking about yourself" thing has been overdone. It's not slick anymore. I get so annoyed when people do that.

[ZBTMP]

but could use more scouting and heresy from the organization

 

Like chicken sacrifice???

Yea, auto-correct got me on that one.....

[CheezWizHed]

So, what did you actually mean? I figured it was an auto-correct but couldn't figure out what else it could be. And I couldn't resist the Major League picture that went perfectly with the slip.

 

I'm one that is cautious with Hader. Excited but cautious. I see everything you guys are seeing on the stats, but its nearly universal from the scouts that they question if he is a SP or RP. Maybe its just laziness, but I wonder what we miss by simply looking at the numbers. I certainly hope they are wrong!

[ZBTMP]

So, what did you actually mean? I figured it was an auto-correct but couldn't figure out what else it could be. And I couldn't resist the Major League picture that went perfectly with the slip.

 

Hearsay or gossip, reports from unnamed sources/scouts in the organization/industry. Ex: "According to a scout, so-and-so has been hitting the ball well in instructionals." "Some in the organization are predicting 2016 will be a breakout campaign"

[reillymcshane]

 

Honestly, I just give up on all the Hader haters out there. I don't know how much more dominate a pitcher needs to be.

 

Hader walked or hit a batter 185 times in 363 IP in the minors. That's pretty high. He did much better last year, but I don't think it's crazy or 'hating' for someone to be cautious about him.

[And That]

TH made it sound like Hader is in the #11-#13 range in a deep system. I agree with reillymcshane, that's not hating. It's a difference of opinion on minor idiosyncrasies unique to the prospects in about the #6-#15 range. Like how do you discount Ponce's arm injury from a few years ago vs. Williams' maturity issues vs. Taylor's gap between physical tools and production vs. Coulter's huge swing and middling range in RF vs. Orimoloye's extreme rawness vs. Davies' lack of dominant stuff vs Hader's control/third pitch issues vs. Harrison's current injury vs. Gatewood's propensity to swing and miss vs. Reed's lack of power for the corner OF and lack of range for CF vs. Medeiros' inability to really even know where the ball is going a lot of time, and you get the picture. There is no perfect prospect, so what we're left to deal with is trying to compare apples to oranges to bananas to pineapples. That's why there's such a huge difference of opinion on prospects.

 

I'd probably put Hader in the top 10, but I can see why he'd miss with some people, too. I personally find it stranger that Houser isn't higher on people's lists.

 

I noticed a distinct lack of Brent Suter questions in the chat.

[reillymcshane]

Like how do you discount Ponce's arm injury from a few years ago vs. Williams' maturity issues vs. Taylor's gap between physical tools and production vs. Coulter's huge swing and middling range in RF vs. Orimoloye's extreme rawness vs. Davies' lack of dominant stuff vs Hader's control/third pitch issues vs. Harrison's current injury vs. Gatewood's propensity to swing and miss vs. Reed's lack of power for the corner OF and lack of range for CF vs. Medeiros' inability to really even know where the ball is going a lot of time, and you get the picture.

Sentence of the year.

 

Well done. Cormac McCarthy and James Joyce would be proud

[colbyjack]

I edited this to take a little bit of the venom out of my initial tone as I know John Manual and a few other of the Baseball America guys personally and think they do a very good job with their publication. I respect Tom Haudricourt's role as the team's beat writer for the local paper but year after year he proves that he's not exactly a "prospect guy." The fact that Hader isn't in the top 10 causes this list to lose a lot of credibility. Clint Coulter being in the top 10 is also very questionable.

 

Hader quite simply should be above Medeiros, and i think most of you know I'm the biggest Medeiros supporter out there.

[CheezWizHed]

I noticed a distinct lack of Brent Suter questions in the chat.

Quit poking the bear!

 

Houser vs. Hader. I get the distinct impression that some people place a higher value on Hader solely because he is a lefty and thus "unique". But does balance really matter when the overall results are the same? I get that mixing things up generally helps a team (i.e. having 5 RHP with the same 3 pitches over and over wouldn't be good for all of them), but you can't mix in a worse pitcher just because he is a lefty. No, I'm not saying Hader is worse. Houser was better this year, but worse in past years. Just saying that he gets a lot of credit just because he is a lefty.

[And That]

Agreed that Hader should be above Medeiros, but I don't think Hader being #11 vs. being #8 or #7 or whatever discredits the list. Last I knew, BA basically has the final say, so this was vetted by some knowledgable people. Might have been one or two guys really loved Medeiros and/or Coulter, and that was enough to push them past Hader. Kind of like how Brent Suter got one completely ridiculous vote in the poll that was just put together here, and that alone almost got him into the top 25.

[Mass Haas]

Baseball America' John Manuel:

 

TWEET: Yeah, as if the rest of us at BA never have input in these things ... give me a break!

 

Full twitter conversation