Lind, Lucroy, K-Rod available (as per Olney)

[BrewBalls]

Sergura could still net a Top 100 prospect as well, we just won't get a big deal out of it.

 

Jean Segura is not getting anything close to a Top 100 prospect. I would take Sardinas over him value wise to be honest and he got us some fringe prospect.

Segura offers similar defense at SS but also provides some gap power which Sardinas will never possess. I am definitely not high on Segura but to say Sardinas is better is ridiculous.

[Roderick]

 

I would be willing to trade now for a fair trade. But if it isn't "fair" to the Brewers, I would be more than willing to roll the dice and keep betting that Lucroy plays well and increases his value and then move him.

 

I think a smaller advantage to trading now is, you would have the prospects in the system now, which should allow for better evaluation and also give Stearns a better idea of what areas he needs to target, as once Lind and Lucroy are traded we really aren't going to be moving anyone for a great return (unless Peralta has a great season).

I think this is inaccurate. Davis, Smith and even Segura could net us a decent return. We just need to find the right fit for each player.

 

I don't think Davis would bring alot right now. If he has a .825 OPS next year and we trade him at the deadline, he should bring a good haul. But right now if I was the other team, I don't trust the production quite yet. Show me he can do it from April to mid-July next season, and I will be convinced.

 

I don't think Segura has much value now that he is in his arby years. He had value as a $600K guy with possible upside, now he is a $2M guy that we pretty much know what he is going to give you (or not give you) on offense. I guess if we traded him today, I would think we would get back someone that would fall into our current BF minor league rankings somewhere in the 20 range. Maybe we will find out shortly if the rumors are right. If Stearns gets more than that, I will be impressed.

 

I don't really think Smith will be traded (even at the deadline), as the only lefty, especially since KRod was just moved - so I didn't include him.

[BrewBalls]

 

I would be willing to trade now for a fair trade. But if it isn't "fair" to the Brewers, I would be more than willing to roll the dice and keep betting that Lucroy plays well and increases his value and then move him.

 

I think a smaller advantage to trading now is, you would have the prospects in the system now, which should allow for better evaluation and also give Stearns a better idea of what areas he needs to target, as once Lind and Lucroy are traded we really aren't going to be moving anyone for a great return (unless Peralta has a great season).

I think this is inaccurate. Davis, Smith and even Segura could net us a decent return. We just need to find the right fit for each player.

 

I don't think Davis would bring alot right now. If he has a .825 OPS next year and we trade him at the deadline, he should bring a good haul. But right now if I was the other team, I don't trust the production quite yet. Show me he can do it from April to mid-July next season, and I will be convinced.

 

I don't think Segura has much value now that he is in his arby years. He had value as a $600K guy with possible upside, now he is a $2M guy that we pretty much know what he is going to give you (or not give you) on offense. I guess if we traded him today, I would think we would get back someone that would fall into our current BF minor league rankings somewhere in the 20 range. Maybe we will find out shortly if the rumors are right. If Stearns gets more than that, I will be impressed.

 

I don't really think Smith will be traded (even at the deadline), as the only lefty, especially since KRod was just moved - so I didn't include him.

 

I agree no one outside of Lucroy will net them a stud prospect like the Gomez trade. But getting four years of team control of a player who can hit 25-30 HRs has plenty of value, especially for an AL team who can use him as a DH role to maximize his offensive value. Smith could be dealt if Stearns is willing to sign a free agent lefty or feels comfortable going into the season with Jimenez and/or Strong.

[MrTPlush]

Sergura could still net a Top 100 prospect as well, we just won't get a big deal out of it.

 

Jean Segura is not getting anything close to a Top 100 prospect. I would take Sardinas over him value wise to be honest and he got us some fringe prospect.

Segura offers similar defense at SS but also provides some gap power which Sardinas will never possess. I am definitely not high on Segura but to say Sardinas is better is ridiculous.

 

Luis Sardinas is younger, cheaper, and has some upside if you are a dreamer. Jean Segura is a utility player on any half decent team. He is horrid and going to make $3mil this year. I didn't say he was better, but value wise the only reason Segura has more is if you like looking at the All Star selection on his resume.

[brewcrewdue80]

Lind will be mid-30's by the time this team competes. Signing him long term would be stupid.

 

Why do we need to be blown away to trade Lucroy? If someone gives a nice package I am taking it and never looking back. If he doesn't start performing closer to his 2014 numbers his trade value is going to decline rapidly.

 

I like that you value our players high because most really undervalue them but you might be too far on the other end of the spectrum. I love watching Lind but he's just not worth the chance of being injured and he's no spring chicken.

 

Jericho on Lind extension....

I guess you want Mark Reynolds/Overbay, Juan Francisco/A.Gonzalez/Y. Betancourt/Maldonado types to cover 1b until you believe the team will compete again with whomever plays 1b somewhere in between Lind/Hart value and the others above.

 

I'll take the known commodity and extend him until theres the future. Lind's removal means having no known 1b of his ability. Learn from the mistakes. As this is a team in rebuild, it can always trade Lind away when some true heir apparent appears.

 

TPlush on Lucroy trade....

A nice package and being blown away I think is close probably in both what you and I would take in Lucroy. I may have an added grade to the final prospect we get over yours but the first piece is likely the same. Lucroy's contract is so cheap, I don't see his trade value declining regardless of performance. Health would be the concern only.

 

Brew4u on Lind comment

This concern on age. He's Braun's age who keeps being penciled in as 1b to become. So we'll take Braun at the same age through 2020 but Lind we must rid of by 2016 season close.?

Find me the next 1b that's going to produce at a .797OPS as Lind has for his career and I'll be comfortable with departing with him.

 

 

We're so quick to trade away Lind/Lucroy in opinion and my issue is two major positions filled with +positive players removed only opens a big hole to fill once again at both positions. 1b to me is a big position that needs to be filled with a big bat. That's why I'd rather extend Lind. His bat at this moment isn't filled. Lucroy I'd give up easier but again on a blown away trade offer. See, I actually believe he's very good. I'm not concerned about his future performance, he'll be fine and a good producer. The fear is for him to be terrible. Probably because of recent history of the Marcum's, Suppan's, Lohse et al.

 

I'm not voicing to extend him. But believe we'll find a trade partner with a killer offer between now and the 2017 Trade deadline. Just know we don't have a catcher who'll perform 1WAR on the team as Lucroy did on this terrible season of his. There isn't one in the pipelines.

[MKE81]

Lind will be mid-30's by the time this team competes. Signing him long term would be stupid.

 

Why do we need to be blown away to trade Lucroy? If someone gives a nice package I am taking it and never looking back. If he doesn't start performing closer to his 2014 numbers his trade value is going to decline rapidly.

 

I like that you value our players high because most really undervalue them but you might be too far on the other end of the spectrum. I love watching Lind but he's just not worth the chance of being injured and he's no spring chicken.

 

Jericho on Lind extension....

I guess you want Mark Reynolds/Overbay, Juan Francisco/A.Gonzalez/Y. Betancourt/Maldonado types to cover 1b until you believe the team will compete again with whomever plays 1b somewhere in between Lind/Hart value and the others above.

 

I'll take the known commodity and extend him until theres the future. Lind's removal means having no known 1b of his ability. Learn from the mistakes. As this is a team in rebuild, it can always trade Lind away when some true heir apparent appears.

 

TPlush on Lucroy trade....

A nice package and being blown away I think is close probably in both what you and I would take in Lucroy. I may have an added grade to the final prospect we get over yours but the first piece is likely the same. Lucroy's contract is so cheap, I don't see his trade value declining regardless of performance. Health would be the concern only.

 

Brew4u on Lind comment

This concern on age. He's Braun's age who keeps being penciled in as 1b to become. So we'll take Braun at the same age through 2020 but Lind we must rid of by 2016 season close.?

Find me the next 1b that's going to produce at a .797OPS as Lind has for his career and I'll be comfortable with departing with him.

 

 

We're so quick to trade away Lind/Lucroy in opinion and my issue is two major positions filled with +positive players removed only opens a big hole to fill once again at both positions. 1b to me is a big position that needs to be filled with a big bat. That's why I'd rather extend Lind. His bat at this moment isn't filled. Lucroy I'd give up easier but again on a blown away trade offer. See, I actually believe he's very good. I'm not concerned about his future performance, he'll be fine and a good producer. The fear is for him to be terrible. Probably because of recent history of the Marcum's, Suppan's, Lohse et al.

 

I'm not voicing to extend him. But believe we'll find a trade partner with a killer offer between now and the 2017 Trade deadline. Just know we don't have a catcher who'll perform 1WAR on the team as Lucroy did on this terrible season of his. There isn't one in the pipelines.

 

I understand where you're coming from but Braun can easily walk into the 1b spot right now with his career .911 OPS! Braun's a known commodity and can pick the ball just fine (throwing was his issue and 1b doesn't have snowball fights like the other side of the diamond). He's also in much better shape than Lind and brings a 25/25 to that position if he remains healthy for a full season (there was zero of those in MLB this past year at 1b). Braun is already an upgrade at 1b. There's a reason AL teams are showing a lot of interest in Lind (DH). I like Lind and wouldn't gripe if he was kept I just don't understand extending him when someone like Braun can transition to 1b given the influx of talent in the OF in our system coming up very soon. Lucroy is a very good player for his position. But he turns 30 this year and it's only a matter of time before his position catches up with him and he doesn't have the bat for a 1b/DH. I don't see the logic in extending him into 2020 as he'll be a 35yr old catcher at a point we should be very competitive. With 2016 being a season we won't compete for a playoff spot I see no reason to keep him especially if you get a strong offer in exchange. Trading Lind, Lucroy, Davis, Segura (potentially Will Smith, Peralta, etc) could net us a lot of great prospects/current MLB guys to fill the remaining question marks (3b, 2b, C) and then some. It just makes the most sense to me. All of this is assuming nobody wants to take on Braun's contract as not opposed to trading him (or anyone actually).

[jerichoholicninja]

Lind will be mid-30's by the time this team competes. Signing him long term would be stupid.

 

Why do we need to be blown away to trade Lucroy? If someone gives a nice package I am taking it and never looking back. If he doesn't start performing closer to his 2014 numbers his trade value is going to decline rapidly.

 

I like that you value our players high because most really undervalue them but you might be too far on the other end of the spectrum. I love watching Lind but he's just not worth the chance of being injured and he's no spring chicken.

 

Jericho on Lind extension....

I guess you want Mark Reynolds/Overbay, Juan Francisco/A.Gonzalez/Y. Betancourt/Maldonado types to cover 1b until you believe the team will compete again with whomever plays 1b somewhere in between Lind/Hart value and the others above.

 

I'll take the known commodity and extend him until theres the future. Lind's removal means having no known 1b of his ability. Learn from the mistakes. As this is a team in rebuild, it can always trade Lind away when some true heir apparent appears.

 

TPlush on Lucroy trade....

A nice package and being blown away I think is close probably in both what you and I would take in Lucroy. I may have an added grade to the final prospect we get over yours but the first piece is likely the same. Lucroy's contract is so cheap, I don't see his trade value declining regardless of performance. Health would be the concern only.

 

Brew4u on Lind comment

This concern on age. He's Braun's age who keeps being penciled in as 1b to become. So we'll take Braun at the same age through 2020 but Lind we must rid of by 2016 season close.?

Find me the next 1b that's going to produce at a .797OPS as Lind has for his career and I'll be comfortable with departing with him.

 

 

We're so quick to trade away Lind/Lucroy in opinion and my issue is two major positions filled with +positive players removed only opens a big hole to fill once again at both positions. 1b to me is a big position that needs to be filled with a big bat. That's why I'd rather extend Lind. His bat at this moment isn't filled. Lucroy I'd give up easier but again on a blown away trade offer. See, I actually believe he's very good. I'm not concerned about his future performance, he'll be fine and a good producer. The fear is for him to be terrible. Probably because of recent history of the Marcum's, Suppan's, Lohse et al.

 

I'm not voicing to extend him. But believe we'll find a trade partner with a killer offer between now and the 2017 Trade deadline. Just know we don't have a catcher who'll perform 1WAR on the team as Lucroy did on this terrible season of his. There isn't one in the pipelines.

 

Given Lind's injury history and lack of success against LHP, a 35 year old Lind is probably the same as those guys you list. I'd rather go with the younger, cheaper, more athletic, and probably better defensive player. And that isn't Adam Lind. I love watching the guy hit. He's the type of hitter this team has lacked for over a decade but unless he can somehow get 4 years younger he doesn't have a place in the future of this organization.

[adambr2]

In a rebuild, what Veteran A does right now is irrelevant. You have to try to predict what they'll be doing at the end of the rebuild, and when that will be.

 

In Lind's case, I would guess that will be about 3 years and not much better than most of the recent fill in 1B that we've had here.

 

Rebuilding isn't about making sure holes are filled today. If you're extending your most pricey vets out of fear of having a hole at that position, not only will you likely end up with a hole as the player ages, but an unnecessarily expensive one.

[pacopete4]

My question is, will people be mad if next year this team wins 80 games? I mean it's not unheard of for teams to perform above what is expected/predicted.

[bill hAll Star]

My question is, will people be mad if next year this team wins 80 games? I mean it's not unheard of for teams to perform above what is expected/predicted.

 

It would be a tad frustrating not to get a higher draft pick, but I won't care about 80 wins as long as they aren't making "win now" trades at the deadline. If the eye is still on the future then they can win that many.

 

I can't imagine they will in this division, though. Especially if Lucroy and/or Lind are gone - you have Davis and Braun as good players and one of the young guys will probably put up a nice season. Pitching staff would be lower end in the league. Once an injury or two happens you'll have one of the worst teams in the league anyways.

[pacopete4]

My question is, will people be mad if next year this team wins 80 games? I mean it's not unheard of for teams to perform above what is expected/predicted.

 

It would be a tad frustrating not to get a higher draft pick, but I won't care about 80 wins as long as they aren't making "win now" trades at the deadline. If the eye is still on the future then they can win that many.

 

I can't imagine they will in this division, though. Especially if Lucroy and/or Lind are gone - you have Davis and Braun as good players and one of the young guys will probably put up a nice season. Pitching staff would be lower end in the league. Once an injury or two happens you'll have one of the worst teams in the league anyways.

 

It's just not unheard of for guys like Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann to take the next step and really be dominant. You pair that with a solid bullpen and you just never know what you get out of that equation. It's baseball, players/teams have good and bad years and sometimes it can be unexplainable.

[bill hAll Star]

My question is, will people be mad if next year this team wins 80 games? I mean it's not unheard of for teams to perform above what is expected/predicted.

 

It would be a tad frustrating not to get a higher draft pick, but I won't care about 80 wins as long as they aren't making "win now" trades at the deadline. If the eye is still on the future then they can win that many.

 

I can't imagine they will in this division, though. Especially if Lucroy and/or Lind are gone - you have Davis and Braun as good players and one of the young guys will probably put up a nice season. Pitching staff would be lower end in the league. Once an injury or two happens you'll have one of the worst teams in the league anyways.

 

It's just not unheard of for guys like Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann to take the next step and really be dominant. You pair that with a solid bullpen and you just never know what you get out of that equation. It's baseball, players/teams have good and bad years and sometimes it can be unexplainable.

 

Yes, it is very unheard of. You're talking about a guy slotted as an MLB #3 starter and 2 guys that seem to be MLB #5 pitchers at best. It's just as likely that Philly's rotation of Hellickson, Morgan, and Eichoff turns into Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine.

 

As long as the Brewers are playing for the future, I'll be rooting for them to win the games and for the young guys to improve - that includes Peralta, Jungmann, Nelson. It wouldn't surprise me I guess if Nelson became a borderline All-Star player or one of Peralta or Jungmann looked like a lower-end MLB rotation mainstay. All of those guys becoming stud pitchers? No way.

[pacopete4]

Yes, it is very unheard of. You're talking about a guy slotted as an MLB #3 starter and 2 guys that seem to be MLB #5 pitchers at best. It's just as likely that Philly's rotation of Hellickson, Morgan, and Eichoff turns into Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine.

 

As long as the Brewers are playing for the future, I'll be rooting for them to win the games and for the young guys to improve - that includes Peralta, Jungmann, Nelson. It wouldn't surprise me I guess if Nelson became a borderline All-Star player or one of Peralta or Jungmann looked like a lower-end MLB rotation mainstay. All of those guys becoming stud pitchers? No way.

 

I wasn't trying to say that all three would become aces but it is not crazy to think that one of the three could become one and the other two become #2-3 type of the rotation guys. Look at a pitcher like Arietta who was absolutely horrible and now won a Cy Young. Or even a guy like Greinke. Take out his Cy Young year and at the same age in KC he was putting up numbers very close to the three guys on the Brewers. There are many more examples that could be used but I can tell by all your posts that no matter what any of the current Brewers could do won't matter to you because no matter what, it's play for 2018 and beyond. I really hope Stearns is playing for the future but also can see the present. We've home brewed three guys that can throw the ball pretty darn well. Get the right pitching coach with them and you just don't know what those guys can turn into.

[reillymcshane]

 

It's just not unheard of for guys like Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann to take the next step and really be dominant. You pair that with a solid bullpen and you just never know what you get out of that equation. It's baseball, players/teams have good and bad years and sometimes it can be unexplainable.

No, it's not unheard of. But it is highly unlikely.

 

The histories, scouting reports and skillsets of the above guys does not indicate they are the types of guys to become dominant pitchers. Thus, you play to what you do expect of them, making moves accordingly.

 

This plays into the 'if everything goes right' idea that so many people get about this (or any) team. "If players A, B and C step up, if Player D and E come back fully from injury, if we avoid injuries, etc., etc. - we can compete." Sadly, it rarely goes that way. Life balances out the goods and bads. Again, not always. You'll have years where things do go well (2011 for example when our top five pitchers started every game but a half-doze or something like that). And year's things go bad (last year, for example - no one thought Garza and Lohse would crater so badly).

 

We need to build a team that we predict will win 90 games - not 83 and hope for good luck.

 

And on the chance that Jungmann, Peralta and Nelson become dominant pitchers - then you make adjustments during the year. If we miss out on the playoffs by a game, I'll be kicking myself for not keeping Lind (or K-Rod or whomever). But I judge this scenario highly unlikely - thus it's a risk that I'd take. The key is the team has to make the most honest assessment of it's talent and adjust accordingly. There will be mistakes - it is baseball and crazy stuff happens. But the key is being honest as to where we are as a team - and where we are going.

[pacopete4]

 

It's just not unheard of for guys like Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann to take the next step and really be dominant. You pair that with a solid bullpen and you just never know what you get out of that equation. It's baseball, players/teams have good and bad years and sometimes it can be unexplainable.

No, it's not unheard of. But it is highly unlikely.

 

The histories, scouting reports and skillsets of the above guys does not indicate they are the types of guys to become dominant pitchers. Thus, you play to what you do expect of them, making moves accordingly.

 

This plays into the 'if everything goes right' idea that so many people get about this (or any) team. "If players A, B and C step up, if Player D and E come back fully from injury, if we avoid injuries, etc., etc. - we can compete." Sadly, it rarely goes that way. Life balances out the goods and bads. Again, not always. You'll have years where things do go well (2011 for example when our top five pitchers started every game but a half-doze or something like that). And year's things go bad (last year, for example - no one thought Garza and Lohse would crater so badly).

 

We need to build a team that we predict will win 90 games - not 83 and hope for good luck.

 

And on the chance that Jungmann, Peralta and Nelson become dominant pitchers - then you make adjustments during the year. If we miss out on the playoffs by a game, I'll be kicking myself for not keeping Lind (or K-Rod or whomever). But I judge this scenario highly unlikely - thus it's a risk that I'd take. The key is the team has to make the most honest assessment of it's talent and adjust accordingly. There will be mistakes - it is baseball and crazy stuff happens. But the key is being honest as to where we are as a team - and where we are going.

 

I agree with a lot of your points. I am not against trading Lind, Segura, Gennett, Lucroy, Braun etc... either. Pitching can cover offense, offense does not cover pitching and defense throughout a whole season. I think you can make those trade, find players to fill their places and still have a shot at competing. I'm sure some will kill me on that but it is what it is. I am very aware that it is a big if but I still think a lot can be done with a different approach. There is a reason a Kyle Lohse can suck in Minnesota and go to the Cardinals and become a top end of the rotation guy. These three that we have right now could be brought to a higher level if the right philosophy and coaching is applied.

[bill hAll Star]

I wasn't trying to say that all three would become aces but it is not crazy to think that one of the three could become one and the other two become #2-3 type of the rotation guys. Look at a pitcher like Arietta who was absolutely horrible and now won a Cy Young. Or even a guy like Greinke. Take out his Cy Young year and at the same age in KC he was putting up numbers very close to the three guys on the Brewers. There are many more examples that could be used but I can tell by all your posts that no matter what any of the current Brewers could do won't matter to you because no matter what, it's play for 2018 and beyond. I really hope Stearns is playing for the future but also can see the present. We've home brewed three guys that can throw the ball pretty darn well. Get the right pitching coach with them and you just don't know what those guys can turn into.

 

Greinke and Arrieta were both highly ranked prospects (would have risen higher on the charts if they remained in the minors beyond age 22 or 23). Jungmann, Perlta, Nelson are all entering their later 20s and all have been either mid-rotation or worse players so far in their careers.

[bill hAll Star]

If we become the new Cardinals in coaching/defense to make every pitcher pitch way above their heads - I'd still rather build organically. Get 10 of those pitchers in the pipeline. If you can make Peralta or Jungmann into a upper-rotation guy with that magic pixie dust, then there are 100 other pitchers out there that you can do it with.

[JohnBriggs12]

My question is, will people be mad if next year this team wins 80 games? I mean it's not unheard of for teams to perform above what is expected/predicted.

 

I know who won't be mad and that's Craig Counsell, Attanasio and David Stearns. Stearns because if they win 80 (or more) it'll be because players they have took a step forward and rookies performed well. 80 wins is certainly not out of reach. There's talent on this roster as it now stands. If it meshes, they'll be watchable unless they deal Lucroy and don't get major league talent back.

 

Counsell wants to win every game. Won/loss records go on a managers record. It doesn't matter that the team says it's "rebuilding". The manager is his record. Just ask Cub manager Dale Svuem and Astros manager Bo Porter. Oops they aren't managing anymore.

 

Keep in mind that trading all useful veterans for prospects doesn't insure that 3-5 years from now, they they'll win more than 70 in any of those seasons either. Pittsburgh was in a state of rebuild for more than 20 years and drafted high year after year.

[pacopete4]

I wasn't trying to say that all three would become aces but it is not crazy to think that one of the three could become one and the other two become #2-3 type of the rotation guys. Look at a pitcher like Arietta who was absolutely horrible and now won a Cy Young. Or even a guy like Greinke. Take out his Cy Young year and at the same age in KC he was putting up numbers very close to the three guys on the Brewers. There are many more examples that could be used but I can tell by all your posts that no matter what any of the current Brewers could do won't matter to you because no matter what, it's play for 2018 and beyond. I really hope Stearns is playing for the future but also can see the present. We've home brewed three guys that can throw the ball pretty darn well. Get the right pitching coach with them and you just don't know what those guys can turn into.

 

Greinke and Arrieta were both highly ranked prospects (would have risen higher on the charts if they remained in the minors beyond age 22 or 23). Jungmann, Perlta, Nelson are all entering their later 20s and all have been either mid-rotation or worse players so far in their careers.

 

This is simply not true. Greinke might not be a great example but Arrieta debuted at the age of 24 and did not figure it out til the age of 29. (Peralta debuted at 23, Nelson at 24, and Jungmann at 25 and all will be 26 this upcoming season). Dallas Keuchel of the Astros debuted at age 24, now 27 and figured it out. He was a 7th round draft pick who was never in the top 100 prospects nor in the top 20 of his own organization. (Peralta top 100 in 2011 & 12, Jungmann in 2011, Nelson in 2013). Max Scherzer was a 1st rounder and was only in the top 100 once as well. There are probably tons of examples but your belief that these three are back end of the rotation guys is just simply not correct.

[BrewBalls]

Yes, it is very unheard of. You're talking about a guy slotted as an MLB #3 starter and 2 guys that seem to be MLB #5 pitchers at best. It's just as likely that Philly's rotation of Hellickson, Morgan, and Eichoff turns into Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine.

 

As long as the Brewers are playing for the future, I'll be rooting for them to win the games and for the young guys to improve - that includes Peralta, Jungmann, Nelson. It wouldn't surprise me I guess if Nelson became a borderline All-Star player or one of Peralta or Jungmann looked like a lower-end MLB rotation mainstay. All of those guys becoming stud pitchers? No way.

 

I wasn't trying to say that all three would become aces but it is not crazy to think that one of the three could become one and the other two become #2-3 type of the rotation guys. Look at a pitcher like Arietta who was absolutely horrible and now won a Cy Young. Or even a guy like Greinke. Take out his Cy Young year and at the same age in KC he was putting up numbers very close to the three guys on the Brewers. There are many more examples that could be used but I can tell by all your posts that no matter what any of the current Brewers could do won't matter to you because no matter what, it's play for 2018 and beyond. I really hope Stearns is playing for the future but also can see the present. We've home brewed three guys that can throw the ball pretty darn well. Get the right pitching coach with them and you just don't know what those guys can turn into.

The big difference between Greinke, Arrieta and Peralta and Jungmann is their pitching repertoires. Peralta and Jungmann simply do not have pitches which project to be top tier. Of the two Peralta had more promise but still projected to be a mid-rotation workhorse more so than a top of the rotation arm. I will be happy if Jungmann can repeat last season's production and wily could get back to posting numbers similar to 2014.

[pacopete4]

My question is, will people be mad if next year this team wins 80 games? I mean it's not unheard of for teams to perform above what is expected/predicted.

 

I know who won't be mad and that's Craig Counsell, Attanasio and David Stearns. Stearns because if they win 80 (or more) it'll be because players they have took a step forward and rookies performed well. 80 wins is certainly not out of reach. There's talent on this roster as it now stands. If it meshes, they'll be watchable unless they deal Lucroy and don't get major league talent back.

 

Counsell wants to win every game. Won/loss records go on a managers record. It doesn't matter that the team says it's "rebuilding". The manager is his record. Just ask Cub manager Dale Svuem and Astros manager Bo Porter. Oops they aren't managing anymore.

 

Keep in mind that trading all useful veterans for prospects doesn't insure that 3-5 years from now, they they'll win more than 70 in any of those seasons either. Pittsburgh was in a state of rebuild for more than 20 years and drafted high year after year.

 

Yeah, I agree completely. Could this team make a Lucroy trade for the future and obtain a catcher that could fill his role with say Alex Avila and still compete? Wonder what Stearns is thinking in this department.

[bill hAll Star]

I wasn't trying to say that all three would become aces but it is not crazy to think that one of the three could become one and the other two become #2-3 type of the rotation guys. Look at a pitcher like Arietta who was absolutely horrible and now won a Cy Young. Or even a guy like Greinke. Take out his Cy Young year and at the same age in KC he was putting up numbers very close to the three guys on the Brewers. There are many more examples that could be used but I can tell by all your posts that no matter what any of the current Brewers could do won't matter to you because no matter what, it's play for 2018 and beyond. I really hope Stearns is playing for the future but also can see the present. We've home brewed three guys that can throw the ball pretty darn well. Get the right pitching coach with them and you just don't know what those guys can turn into.

 

Greinke and Arrieta were both highly ranked prospects (would have risen higher on the charts if they remained in the minors beyond age 22 or 23). Jungmann, Perlta, Nelson are all entering their later 20s and all have been either mid-rotation or worse players so far in their careers.

 

This is simply not true. Greinke might not be a great example but Arrieta debute at the age of 24 and did not figure it out til the age of 29. (Peralta debuted at 23, Nelson at 24, and Jungmann at 25 and all will be 26 this upcoming season). Dallas Keuchel of the Astros debuted at age 24, now 27 and figured it out. He was a 7th round draft pick who was never in the top 100 prospects nor in the top 20 of his own organization. (Peralta top 100 in 2011 & 12, Jungmann in 2011, Nelson in 2013). Max Scherzer was a 1st rounder and was only in the top 100 once as well. There are probably tons of examples but your belief that these three are back end of the rotation guys is just simply not correct.

 

Sure - plenty of guys have figured it out later:

 

Zack Greinke - 1st round, 6th pick

Arrieta - Reached top 100 prospects at age 23.

 

Keuchel is a good example but he's a 1 in 500 odds type of guy to emerge like that. For every one of him, there are 500 guys who didn't develop.

 

Wily Peralta just struck out 5 batters per 9 last year. Lefties have hit a Khris Davis-esque .803 OPS against him in his career. This past year was .889.

 

Jungmann did improve as he moved up the minors but his career minors ERA is 4.50.

 

Nelson has been solid, not great.

 

Could one of these guys break out? Absolutely. The problem is that there are probably ~100 current MLB/AAA pitchers with the pedigree/performance of these Brewers pitchers. 2 or 3 of them may become studs and 10 may become long-term MLB guys. The rest will flame out or be AAAA players. To believe that Jungmann is going to go the Keuchel route is very, very wishful thinking.

[BrewBalls]

 

Yeah, I agree completely. Could this team make a Lucroy trade for the future and obtain a catcher that could fill his role with say Alex Avila and still compete? Wonder what Stearns is thinking in this department.

Swapping out Lucroy for a package of highly rated prospects and Signing Alex Avila (who very likely will never catch again) will not make us competitive next season. Stearns has made the conscious decision to trade away assets to rebuild our farm system instead of trying to half-ass compete like Melvin did the past 2 years. Currently we are significantly behind the Cards, Cubs and Pirates with no chance of catching them in the next couple of years. This is the perfect opportunity to tear it down and retool. If you want to properly rebuild a team you cannot have it both ways unless you have an unlimited payroll like the Dodgers or Yankees.

[bill hAll Star]

Let me add - I would be a fan of swapping out Lucroy for a bunch of prospects and signing Avila. DISCLAIMER: I do not care whether or not a catcher is in the package - just give me the best collection of young players.

 

We have different definitions of whether or not 7 or 8 Brewers could vastly exceed expectations and they could in turn win 80+ games, but I'd be glad to watch through that with the optimists. I'd maybe slightly prefer younger guys like Villar to fill in the voids that we have, but Avila is a fine buy low prospect that we can see if he can magically turn it around and turn into trade value. And yes, for the 2 or 3 of you that want 75 wins and want it now - maybe he could add some wins this year.

[BrewBalls]

I'm all for adding bounce back candidates who we can flip at the trade deadline but not at the expense of our young players. I am also hoping for a couple of top 5 picks to add more top tier talent to our farm system (hopefully one pitcher who projects to be a bona fide ace and can head up our rotation down the road).