Lind, Lucroy, K-Rod available (as per Olney)

[NievesNoNO]

It's complicated: Brewers in tough spot with possible trade of Lucroy

By Jeff Sullivan, FanGraphs

 

 

That's a great article, thanks for posting. I would imagine many of us (including myself), are overestimating the trade value of Lucroy

 

 

Another case as to why he might need to paired with another player like Smith or Peralta.

 

That was a good write-up. I guess I don't feel like it's a tough spot at this point. There's no urgency to trade him now. They reference Frazier in the article; if the best offer is something along the lines of Pereza I would just rather have Lucroy as my catcher for 2 years. Maybe he never regains his value but what have you really lost? If you hang on to him and he puts himself back in the conversation of being an elite catcher they'll have no problems moving him for a decent return.

 

If pairing Smith with him would bring an elite level prospect back then I'd be ok with it I guess, but I feel like Smith should have enough value on his own to merit a good return so it feels like a bit of a waste of resources.

[BrewBalls]

Good article but it sure would be nice to get one additional top prospect added to the system before the draft. I'm sure there will be a GM out there trying to win now who will break the bank to get Lucroy. Stearns simply needs to show patience and wait for the right offer to present itself.

[anglotiger]

There are SO MANY reasons to trade Lucroy now. Only reason not to is if they just are getting low ball offers. His value will never get higher...never.

 

I am not necessarily disagreeing with you, but think about this - if you are correct that his value will never get higher, what makes you think that the GMs around MLB aren't aware of this too and aren't making low-ball offers?

 

The thing is the value mid season won't be there. The amount of suitors will be lower and teams won't be as motivated putting in a catcher in the middle of the season with the pitchers.

 

Agreed.

 

So if teams consider Lucroy much like his 2014 I see no reason this is his values high point.

 

That's kind of my point though - unless I am misunderstanding you (which, I admit, is always a possibility). You say that "His value will never get higher...never." and then you say the above. My question is based on your original statement. "So if teams consider Lucroy much like his 2014" is fine to say, but what makes you think that GMs will do that, and not have the same view that you express originally?

 

I'm happy to accept that I might be totally misunderstanding your point, and hope that you can clear up that misunderstanding for me.

[MrTPlush]

Slight typo as I meant if Lucroy is being considered much like his 2014 self I can't imagine his value really rising at this point.

 

There was a report(who knows how legit) that said a few high up execs said Lucroy was a favorite bounce back candidate. So that tells me a lot of people think they are trading for something closer to the 2014 version and not the 2015 version.

[Boomer5]

I still see no urgency to trade him but maybe I'm not understanding the definition of urgent.

 

If there is a Dave Stewart on the phone then yes it's urgent we trade him now.

 

If it's a Lind type of return on the table then no urgency whatsoever. He is cheap and if he is hitting 850 on July 31 I promise you teams will be lined up for him regardless of pitching staff adjustments.

[anglotiger]

Slight typo as I meant if Lucroy is being considered much like his 2014 self I can't imagine his value really rising at this point.

 

Got it. Thanks for clarifying. That makes more sense to me now...

[brewcrewdue80]

Injuries do happen. How about Buster Posey breaking his leg. Hamstring pulls? There's likely going to be some team in Playoff/WS contention that lose their starting catcher to injury. Trading for Lucroy in that circumstance would mean desperation and a likely overpay. Why not bat Lucroy Cleanup behind Braun with Davis(Mr 30HR potential) behind? .280 15-18HRs and 80+RBI pace I think would get GMs drooling to have that.

[narwhalattack]

https://twitter.com/wisconsin888/status/683377096496910337

 

I highly doubt the validity of this rumor, but I'm bored enough to share.

[reillymcshane]

https://twitter.com/wisconsin888/status/683377096496910337

 

I highly doubt the validity of this rumor, but I'm bored enough to share.

Berrios would be pretty sweet to get hold of, but I doubt Minnesota gives him up.

 

Plouffe doesn't thrill me unless we can flip him for a good prospect or two.

[pacopete4]

https://twitter.com/wisconsin888/status/683377096496910337

 

I highly doubt the validity of this rumor, but I'm bored enough to share.

 

Trading Lucroy for Ploufe literally makes no sense. If we are trading Lucroy it better be for prospects and high ceiling prospects at that.

[narwhalattack]

https://twitter.com/wisconsin888/status/683377096496910337

 

I highly doubt the validity of this rumor, but I'm bored enough to share.

 

Trading Lucroy for Ploufe literally makes no sense. If we are trading Lucroy it better be for prospects and high ceiling prospects at that.

 

That's what I thought too. I wonder what it would take to get a hold of Tyler Jay.

[And That]

It might make sense as a 3-way trade with Plouffe going somewhere else and prospects going to the Brewers/Twins.

[trwi7]

https://twitter.com/wisconsin888/status/683377096496910337

 

I highly doubt the validity of this rumor, but I'm bored enough to share.

 

I'm not going to say a guy with 17 twitter followers can't break a story because I'm sure it's happened somewhere at some point. I'll just say that it would be pretty unlikely for them to be the first one with info on a potential Lucroy trade. Especially one like this that makes absolutely no sense and goes completely against everything Stearns has done since he became GM.

[reillymcshane]

It might make sense as a 3-way trade with Plouffe going somewhere else and prospects going to the Brewers/Twins.

Like Milwaukee, Minnesota needs to build primarily from the draft. Thus, moving Plouffe is probably a key for them as he's a good player, but they have a ready made replacement.

 

I could see the Twins being willing to give up a solid prospect like Kepler, but their rotation is pretty mediocre - I doubt they'd want to give up a top arm like Berrios. Thus (as noted above), get a third team involved who needs Plouffe. The hard part is getting a third team that needs Plouffe, and someone we want. Might have to be some other players moving in such as deal, but I guess that's for Stearns to figure out.

 

I have to admit that I'm intrigued by Kepler. He's still developing as a player (he's from Germany, so he's never had that great of competition), and most scouts think he'll improve his power numbers. He could slot into the '1B of the future' role. All that said, he's not a super premium prospect - the kind of player I want to get for Lucroy - but I like the kid.

[crickets]

A lot can change in a few weeks with injuries and trades, but one of the only competitive teams out there with a need at 3B would be Cleveland with Chisenhall likely to be in the OF. Possible 3 way trade with a base of and others could be included:

 

Twins get Lucroy

Cleveland gets Plouffe

Milwaukee gets Tyler Jay(would love Berrios though) and Kepler from Twins and Kaminsky from Indians and a lower level prospect from one of the teams

 

Thoughts? Underwhelming return for Lucroy? Again if Milwaukee throws in an arm to one of the teams it could possibly sweeten the pot some.

[reillymcshane]

Alot can change in a few weeks with injuries and trades, but one of the only competitive teams out there with a need at 3B would be Cleveland with Chisenhall likely to be in the OF. Possible 3 way trade with a base of and others could be included:

 

Twins get Lucroy

Cleveland gets Plouffe

Milwaukee gets Tyler Jay(would love Berrios though) and Kepler from Twins and Kaminsky from Indians and a lower level prospect from one of the teams

 

Thoughts? Underwhelming return for Lucroy? Again if Milwaukee throws in an arm to one of the teams it could possibly sweeten the pot some.

 

Boils down to Minnesota gives up Plouffe, Jay and Kepler for Lucroy. Kepler and Jay are at #96 and #63 of the MLB Pipeline Rankings (for what those are worth). Plouffe has produced 2.6 and 3.5 WAR the past two years, respectively. He's a good player. I don't think the return is underwhelming - it just lacks the sexy Top 20 type prospect that some would want to get from dealing Lucroy. I'm not sure Minnesota would do it - but so much just depends on their view of Lucroy - are they getting the 2014 or 2015 version, what are the health ramifications, etc. But if he's somewhere in between, he's a huge upgrade for them, so perhaps it flies.

 

If the Brewers think Jay can't be a starter, I'm not sure it works for us. I think you need Jay to be a starter for him to be special. That's what kind of makes the guy really interesting - if he could transition to starting successfully, he could be a top flight pitcher. And Kepler has a lot of potential. He's just tapping into it, especially his power. Neither guy is a great bet to be a star - but there's a lot to like.

 

As for Plouffe for Kaminsky - St. Louis gave him up for Moss - and inferior player to Plouffe. So we can probably do better. Not a bad starting point, but I think there's more to be had there.

 

In the end, we'd up with three good, but not great, prospects. But I think Jay and Kepler both have some interesting upside.

 

I know a lot of people expect us to get some amazing prospects for Lucroy, but I'm just not sure that's going to happen due to his recent injuries and mediocre 2015. If we trade him, I hope we can get a top 20 guy or two, but I'm just not sure it happens. If a deal like this happened (Luc for Plouffe, Jay, Kepler, then Milwaukee flipping Plouffe for Kaminksy+), I would be okay with it. I'm also happy just hanging on to Luc and hope he rakes in 2016, but that's a risk as well.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Kaminski is a legit prospect. The fact that the cardinals have him for moss still blows my mind. Should have tried to trade Lind for him at the deadline.

[And That]

Nationals Have Explored Trade Market For Catchers

[Eye Black]

Teams like the Nationals and Rangers make perfect sense as trade partners for Lucroy. The hang-up with the Nationals would be finding a good fit. I don't think at this point they are going to give up either of their top two prospects (Giolito or Turner) unless it brings back a Jose Fernandez type player. After those two guys their system seems to drop off in terms of impact talent.

 

One team that makes less sense is the Red Sox. Still, I wonder if there is even slight chance the Red Sox would have interest in easing Swihart's development by pairing him with a veteran catcher like Lucroy (who could also slot into the lineup at other positions, 1B or DH, as needed)? Maybe or maybe not, but for the purposes of this hypothetical who would you rather see as the headline piece in a Lucroy deal?...

 

1) Either Lewis Brinson (Rangers) OR Nomar Mazara (Rangers)

2) Rafael Devers (Red Sox)

3) Either Erick Fedde (Nationals) OR Reynaldo Lopez (Nationals)

 

Certainly a combination of prospects could swing a package in favor of any particular team, but if the players listed above were being offered as a headliner to a Lucroy package I would be hard pressed to pass on Rafael Devers. Both of the Rangers prospects listed are highly thought of, but Devers swing at just 18 (recently turned 19) has the look of something special.

[JohnBriggs12]

Forget their prospects (I don't see a great match), I'd ask Nationals for Rendon straight up for Lucroy. A left side of the Brewer infield of Rendon and Arcia through 2019 (if Rendon himself isn't dealt for prospects before then) would look pretty good. Doubt the Nats would do it, but that would be a reasonable deal and wouldn't derail a rebuild either. If all teams are offering for Lucroy are low level prospects, get a major leaguer back and you can get the same caliber prospects (a little more developed) 2-3 years from now for Rendon. Rendon is younger and under control two more years than Lucroy. He doesn't quite have the sustained excellence Lucroy has and doesn't play a premier position so that offsets the two extra years of control the Brewers would be getting. Besides Nats recently signed Murphy who could fill in at 3B and added Stephen Drew for IF depth.

[Bnowell4evr]

Any deal with Washington will have to be built on quantity as Giolito and Turner are probably off the table. Still, they have what it takes to get a deal done IMO.

 

I would ask for 2 of Reynaldo Lopez, Erick Fedde, and A.J. Cole

OF Victor Robles

And then one of either Jackson Reetz, Pedro Severino, Anderson Franco or Juan Soto

 

It doesn't have the sexy current top 100 prospect you would be looking for but I see Robles as a future star and everyone of those pitchers has #3 or better upside. Throw in a catching prospect or a low level lottery ticket like Franco or Soto and I would be very pleased with our haul.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Actually the deal with the Nats would have to include Giolito.

[MrTPlush]

Actually the deal with the Nats would have to include Giolito.

 

Exactly why a trade with them will never happen.

[Eye Black]

Actually the deal with the Nats would have to include Giolito.

 

Exactly why a trade with them will never happen.

Yeah, unfortunately probably going to need a DeLorean and flux capacitor to make that happen.

[mlloyd10]

Lucroy/Davis for Taylor/Giolito

 

Will Smith for Susac