Law's top 100..

[TheCrew07]

insider.espn.go.com/mlb/i...%3d2858780

[fewgoodcards]

bumgarner and beaven at 18 and 19 with tim alderson ahead of them? yeah, good call keith. there is no chance josh smoker will be there at 29, and there is no way todd frazier is lasting until 66.

[colbyjack]

Alderson over Bumgarner and Beaven isn't that surprising to me, as I actually prefer Alderson as a pitcher over the other two, even if the other two have better fastballs.

 

Frazier at 66 is way too low though, I'll give you that.

[paul253]

im a little worried about those 5-8 guys....3 high schoolers of the 4 right about where the Brewers pick. C'mon Jack.....anything but a high school pitcher

[gordofieldo]

I wouldnt mind seeing them take Bumgarner, that would be about the only HS pitcher I would like, the rest would all be typical high risk picks, if the Brewers took one of those guys.

[geothite]

Maybe I am wrong about this but isn't drafting a pitcher always high risk, whether HS or college.

Isn't the failure and attrition rates for HS and college pitchers essentially the same?

 

However, the successful franchise have depth of pitching up and down the organization. If you see a special arm on the board when you pick doesn't logic say you have to take that player, whether a HS or college pitcher?

In fact there was a BP article recently making the point that drafting college pitcher was a high risk proposisiton.

[colbyjack]

I've ran a study or two myself breaking down the success rate of high school vs. college hitters and pitchers (and players in general). College players in every category have a great chance of making it to and having some kind of big-league career, while high school players have a higher rate of flaming out at the lower levels. But the success rate between college and high school players becoming established big-leaguers over a long period of time is closer than many people think. The gap between college and high school hitters is actually bigger than what people would think (HS outfielders in particular flame out at a very high rate, since they are often drafted for their tools, just like prep pitchers getting drafted for their golden arms -- yet inability to pitch).