Brewers exercise $8 million option on Lind

[Dragonbait]

No surprise on that.

 

http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/156380702/brewers-pick-up-option-on-adam-lind

[patrickgpe]

yeah they had no other option, very similar to Ramirez last season, can always unload in July if needed.

[1992casey]

They can "unload" him tomorrow if they want to.

[3and2Fastball]

Unless the Brewers achieve the unthinkable and become a contender in 2016, Lind will definitely be traded, it is just a matter of when. I would prefer that he's traded sooner rather than later for two reasons:

 

1) I'd like to see Jason Rogers start an entire season at 1B and see what he can do

 

2) Lind is injury prone. A season ending injury kills his trade value

[And That]

There was no good reason not to exercise the option.

 

There is also no good reason for Lind to be on the Brewers' roster in 3 months. He stayed unusually healthy last season, but his back seems like a ticking time bomb. They have to move him before spring training, or they risk the bomb going off.

[brewmann04]

ok so our 1stbase spot taken between Adam and Jason.

if we go south we can always move Lind.

Lind a true professional player

[logan82]

I honestly forgot it was an option. I always thought we would have him for 2016.

[DocLuna7]

I am all for this move. Worst case scenario we have a good hitting first baseman at a reasonable salary. Best case we unload him for prospects and get something decent back in return.

[MNBrew]

This was a no-brainer for all the reasons stated above.

 

If he becomes trade fodder, locking in the certainty of a very reasonable salary only helps the prospects of a reasonably decent return.

[MrTPlush]

If there is any reasonable deal on the table before the start of the season he should be gone. No excuse to even risk injury with him...unless of course his market is dry this off season. Would be surprised if he lasts much past the winter meetings.

[ZBTMP]

There is also no good reason for Lind to be on the Brewers' roster in 3 months. He stayed unusually healthy last season, but his back seems like a ticking time bomb. They have to move him before spring training, or they risk the bomb going off.

 

I think that's what limits his value during the offseason where teams fill out there lineup and more option are available (or internal options haven't flamed out yet). The fact that he is oft-injured is no secret, and how many contending teams want to enter next season relying on getting 500 ABs from him? To me it seems more likely that a team is willing to overlook his injury history when trying to jumpstart an underperforming offense or find a productive injury replacement.

 

If a team wants to give a piece that is valuable to the rebuilding Brewers now, jump on it. But if he can stay relatively healthy and put up a .350 wOBA, he will bring just as much or more at the deadline.

[jerichoholicninja]

If Lind is acquired before the season that team has the option of giving him a QO next year, not so during the season. If Lind can make it through 2016 relatively healthy and productive I see no reason for a team to not give him a QO. Essentially, a team that acquires Lind this offseason can replace whatever prospect they give up for him with the pick from the QO in 2017. The only way Lind brings back more during the season is if he's healthy and OPS'ing 900+ against lefties and righties through July, not impossible but highly unlikely. He needs to be traded this offseason.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Lind is acquired before the season that team has the option of giving him a QO next year, not so during the season. If Lind can make it through 2016 relatively healthy and productive I see no reason for a team to not give him a QO. Essentially, a team that acquires Lind this offseason can replace whatever prospect they give up for him with the pick from the QO in 2017. The only way Lind brings back more during the season is if he's healthy and OPS'ing 900+ against lefties and righties through July, not impossible but highly unlikely. He needs to be traded this offseason.

 

Lind is not going to get a QO anywhere after 2016. He turns 33 in July, has history of back issues, and has struggled vs. LHP over his career and while he's put up decent numbers at times, he's not been a core player that can be counted on at any time. His $8 million salary is about what he's worth.

 

I think all you guys are vastly overrating Lind's trade value. Why was he not traded last July when teams had openings? Because teams didn't offer anything of value that's why. What other GM's don't know about his back issues? Now it's the offseason, and teams who had guys go down with injuries will have them back. Most if not all of the better teams in the NL are set at 1B or at least have guys his equal. Maybe the Pirates could use him. Beyond that? Cubs? No. Cards? Not Likely. Reds? Of course not. Dodgers? No. Giants? No. Arizona? Laugh. SD? Not contenders. Colo? Don't think so. Mets? No. Nats? No. Braves? No. Marlins? No. Phils? No.

 

That leaves the AL. Most likely teams to have interest to me would be Orioles if Davis signs elsewhere or Astros if they don't sign Davis. In either case, Lind would be a potential fall back. If one of those two teams signs Davis, then the bidding for Lind will be very limited.

 

I believe it's at least 50-50 that Lind starts the season as a Brewer and that's not the disaster it's being made out to be. He is not going to fetch a top of the line prospect. Oh you might get someone who's in the 10-15 range on a team's prospect list but that's a best case and even then it's likely to be a lower level guy.

 

As for Rogers not getting opportunity to assume the full time 1B position, does anyone really think the Brewer brain trust with all the RH bats in the OF is going to see Rogers as a long term answer at 1B? Sure I'd like to see what he could do over an extended period, but start the season without any LH power bat in the lineup, even granted the possibility of contending is extremely remote?

 

Trade Lind if someone offers actual value which I just don't see. If not hold on to him and hope he's gangbusters for 3 months and then make the best deal possible assuming they are far out of any race.

[And That]

If a team wants to give a piece that is valuable to the rebuilding Brewers now, jump on it. But if he can stay relatively healthy and put up a .350 wOBA, he will bring just as much or more at the deadline.

I'm sure that's true for some teams, that they'd give up more later. Lind has said that he usually tweaks his back playing defense. Not sure how much truth there is to it, so take it for what his word is worth. But if an AL team thinks he's an upgrade at DH - and his 820 OPS in 2015 was better than the combined DH output of all but 4 AL teams - and their doctors agree that it's playing in the field that causes his back problems, he's an upgrade for more than a third of MLB right now.

 

I'm not saying the Brewers should take a garbage offer for the guy, but they need to carefully weigh the opportunity cost of what they can get now vs. what they think they could get with a good half season, discounted with the not-insignificant risk of Lind getting injured between now and then. It's interesting internal math.

 

Edit: So basically, completely making up numbers here, if the Brewers could get a return for Lind in July that's 25% better than what they get now, vs. having say a 20% chance of getting nothing at all if he were to be injured, should they take the 20% risk of eating $8 million in a season that they won't be competitive?

[CheezWizHed]

Lind is not going to get a QO anywhere after 2016. He turns 33 in July, has history of back issues, and has struggled vs. LHP over his career and while he's put up decent numbers at times, he's not been a core player that can be counted on at any time. His $8 million salary is about what he's worth.

 

I think the point was made that if he stayed healthy this year (which would make it two years in a row) and plays around the same level as last year, that he could get a QO. I would expect that to be likely. If his back injury pops back up this year, then there is no shot.

 

Last year, he was the 13th best 1B in the majors in OPS. Considering what we got for Gerardo Parra, I think we should be able to get something decent for Lind.

[jerichoholicninja]

Lind is not going to get a QO anywhere after 2016. He turns 33 in July, has history of back issues, and has struggled vs. LHP over his career and while he's put up decent numbers at times, he's not been a core player that can be counted on at any time. His $8 million salary is about what he's worth.

 

I think the point was made that if he stayed healthy this year (which would make it two years in a row) and plays around the same level as last year, that he could get a QO. I would expect that to be likely. If his back injury pops back up this year, then there is no shot.

 

Last year, he was the 13th best 1B in the majors in OPS. Considering what we got for Gerardo Parra, I think we should be able to get something decent for Lind.

 

I don't see what's so crazy about giving Lind a QO after a healthy 2015 and 2016. At Lind's age he's only getting one multi-year contract. He would turn the QO down in an instant. He could take $16M for one year and gamble with his health and production or get $30-40M for multiple years. That's a no brainer.

[trwi7]

If Lind has another year like this year, he easily turns down a QO for a two year deal with a mutual/team option or something. 35 year old Michael Cuddyer turned down a QO after only getting 200 plate appearances in Colorado because of injuries.

 

Sure you can argue that the Mets were dumb to sign him, but there are dumb teams who make moves like that every year.

 

I see a ton of different teams that could have varying levels of interest in Lind.

 

Cleveland didn't get a lot from 1B/DH this year. With a lower salary, they could have pretty good interest.

 

The Astros got nothing from Carter and Gattis. They have A.J. Reed in the minors and maybe someone like Tyler White but Lind could be a nice stop gap.

 

The Mariners got negative WAR from their 1st basemen. They've already stated that they're competing and not rebuilding. They could have interest in Lind.

 

The Rays got -2.6 WAR from their 1st basemen. They could have interest if we take some unwanted salary in return.

 

The Twins probably don't have interest with Sano at DH and Mauer at 1st but Mauer isn't good anymore. It's unlikely but they may have interest if they move Plouffe and give 3rd base to Sano.

 

The Pirates didn't get much from Alvarez/Rodriguez and whoever else they played at 1st base. If we take some unwanted salary, they could definitely have interest.

 

The Padres might have interest depending on how they value Alonso.

 

The Orioles might have interest if they lose Davis as a free agent.

 

There are plenty of options to create a small bidding war.

[reillymcshane]

If Lind repeats this year's performance in 2016, I still don't know if he gets a qualifying offer.

 

Sure Cuddyer was signed even with the qualifying offer on him (2-years/$21M). But that turned out pretty poorly. LaRoche is a similar guy - he got 2-years and $25M without the qualifying offer on him. He was pretty awful last year.

 

I just don't know if Lind, even with two years of decent health, would inspire someone to cough up their #1 draft pick (perhaps a #2 pick, but it all depends).

 

Look what happened to Nelson Cruz a couple of years ago - he had to settle for a 1-year/$8M deal.

 

With Lind's injury history, platoon issues, limited defensive ability, plus the fact that guys like this don't usually age well, makes him a risk for anyone. If he has a solid season, and he got a QO, I bet he'd take it.

 

Ultimately, I guess it only takes one team to sign the guy - but that doesn't always work out for the player.

[LouisEly]

The Pirates are an interesting team. They have Josh Bell on the horizon; he was a RF but moved to 1B, and he played 1B in a way that would make Alvarez proud (16 errors in 116 games). Bell isn't a high power guy (only 9 HR each of the last two seasons), but he has good OBP, switch hits, and doesn't strike out much.

 

I don't think Bell is as much of a prospect as some think. Are the Pirates in go-for-it mode and would they be willing to flip future-prospect Bell for right-now Lind? Would the Brewers be willing to put up with/take a chance on Bell's defense?

[markedman5]

@Buster_ESPN: Other teams say 2 players who had options exercised in last 48 hours are available for trade right now--MIL's Adam Lind, SD's Joaquin Benoit

[monty57]

having say a 20% chance of getting nothing at all if he were to be injured

 

This is a key point. In my opinion, the Brewers can't risk getting nothing in return for Lind. There is really no potential upside (reward) for holding on to Lind for the 2016 season as they are not going to compete and he's probably not raising his trade value, but there is a lot of risk in holding onto him as he could get injured and net them zero return.

 

Risk vs. reward heavily slanted in favor of trading him this offseason.