Biggest Need in 2016

[mertonmonk]

In baseball, you try to score more runs than your opponents (rocket science).

Here is a listing of the postseason teams ranked by postseason OBP plus a few stats I'll explain:

 

1. Royals (.316, 5.6 r/g, 4.1 or/g, 1.5 dr/g)

2. Blue Jays (.309, 4.7 4/g, 5.2 or/g, -0.5 dr/g)

3. Astros (.301, 4 r/g, 4.2 or/g, -0.2 dr/g)

4. Dodgers (.293, 3.6 r/g, 4.4 or/g, -0.8 dr/g)

5. Mets (.282, 4.4 r/g, 3.5 or/g, 0.9 dr/g)

6. Cubs (.276, 3.6 r/g, 4.2 or/g, -0.6 dr/g)

7. Rangers (.260, 3.8 r/g, 5.2 or/g, -1.4 dr/g)

8. Cardinals (.255, 4.3 r/g, 5 or/g, -0.8 dr/g)

9. Pirates (.219, 0 r/g, 4 or/g, -4 dr/g)

10. Yankees (.156, 0 rg/, 3 or/g, -3 dr/g)

 

r/g = runs per game (Royals scored 90 runs in 16 games, so 5.6 r/g)

or/g = opponent runs per game (Royals allowed 66 runs, so 4.1 or/g)

dr/g = difference in runs per game (this is r/g - or/g, so for the Royals it was 1.5)

 

Runs per game is largely a measure of your offense, and a good predictor of that is OBP.

Opponent runs per game is a combination of pitching and defense.

 

Just to put the Brewers season into perspective, they had these stats:

OBP = .307, 4.0 r/g, 4.5 or/g, -0.5 dr/g

 

To drive up the r/g, the Brewers could focus on players who will drive up the team OBP.

To drive down the or/g, the Brewers could focus on better defenders and/or pitchers.

 

For offense, the Brewers would benefit from having Lucroy in the lineup more frequently in 2016

than he was in 2015. They need to decide if they want a platoon at 2B since Gennett had a .114 avg

against lefties in 2015. A 3B who can produce offensively at 3B is a big need and there's no

apparent help in the minors. Santana had a .231 avg in limited time, can he produce better than

that to justify becoming the starting CF in 2016? Segura had 19 errors, tops on the team.

Can he bounce back from that and retain the role of starting SS? Or might he be moved over to 2B

to make room for Arcia? In Spring Training there needs to be at least some thought to moving Segura

to 2B and starting Arcia at SS, or maybe Arcia at 2B and Gennett becomes a bench player or trade bait.

 

Pitching-wise, not having Lohse will help with opponent runs. The post-all-star stats for the Brewers

in 2015 make them more a middle-of-the-pack team from a pitching perspective, even with Garza's

forgettable performance. Perhaps Garza can find more reliable performance in the bullpen and the

crop of rookies can excel, or at least be an improvement over the 2015 starting staff.

 

The Brewers aren't too far off from a positive dr/g. The Royals proved that good, consistent

hitting will find a way to get past the best pitching. The Mets had the better pitching staff,

but the Royals were able to keep battling until the pitchers made mistakes. With so few strike outs,

they didn't have many unproductive outs. Those are the kind of hitters the Brewers need to focus on

to improve their offense.

 

So I think the biggest need is a reliable 3B hitter who is also a good defender. Not necessarily a slugger - I'd focus on avg and obp. Pitching is harder to buy with the payroll limitations the Brewers have, and there seem to be plenty of internal candidates, so focusing on 3B seems to be the best option.

[jerichoholicninja]

The biggest need in 2016 is good, cheap, young players who will be even better but still young and cheap in 2017, 2018, and 2019. There's no reason to focus on one position or improving one team stat.

[mertonmonk]

Most of the starting pitchers are young and controllable for a few years, and bullpens are usually built year-to-year so no need to focus on that apart from closer. LF = Davis (controlled through 2020), RF = Braun (2022), CF = Santana/Philips? (2020 or later), SS/2B = Segura (2019), Arcia (2020 or later), Gennett (2020), 1B = Lind (2017), C = Lucroy (2017), Maldonado (2019). So most position players are set for the timeframe you mention in addition to next year. Hopefully Santana and Philips can man CF for the next few years. The only obvious problems are 3B (no real option in that timeframe at all, including 2016), C (sign Lucroy to an extension beyond 2017 as there's a big dropoff to Maldonado) and 1B (Lind after 2017). The biggest problem in all of that is still 3B and it would be best if that can be solved with a controllable contract hitter/good defender this offseason. K-Rod is a free agent in 2017 as well, so that needs to be on the radar.

[MrTPlush]

Ryan Braun is signed through 2020. Only way he is here in 2021 is if we want to pay him $11mil and I doubt a 37 year old crippled OFer will be worth that.

[3and2Fastball]

Gennett was the 36th ranked 2B in WAR in 2015. He is, quite literally, a replacement player. I have no problem with starting a replacement player at 2B in 2016 since it is a rebuilding year, but 2B is a big position of need

[Devinep]

Biggest need is sifting through the poop to see if it contains some worthy starters (Rogers), Role players (Peterson) or getting minor leaguers up (Reed).

 

The other big need is trading all extra assets (Lind, Segura, etc) and increasing the value of vets to trade them (Lucroy)

[brewmann04]

I think Stearns will do just that and find us the best players for this team.Would like to see a long term fix a 3rd .

[MNBrew]

Ryan Braun is signed through 2020. Only way he is here in 2021 is if we want to pay him $11mil and I doubt a 37 year old crippled OFer will be worth that.

If he's relatively "crippled," to use your word, then that's quite likely true.

 

However, if he can stay pretty much healthy and keep producing as he has up to now (when healthy), and assuming he's still a worthy option (which would corroborate the first contingency point), then $11M in 2021 money might still be very reasonable for Braun at that time.

[logan82]

Our biggest need is talent we can flip for younger talent.

[JohnBriggs12]

The farm system is in pretty decent shape but it needs to be more balanced if they expect to field a competitive team sooner rather than later. There's very little at the corner IF spots and behind the plate. That would be my primary focus.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gennett was the 36th ranked 2B in WAR in 2015. He is, quite literally, a replacement player. I have no problem with starting a replacement player at 2B in 2016 since it is a rebuilding year, but 2B is a big position of need

 

Gennett was 4.5 WAR over his first year and a half, and basically that same player once he returned from his stint in AAA. Remember he got married early last year and I suspect that might be partially responsible for a terrible start.

[BrewBalls]

I would focus this season on trading our assets for more prospects and signing bounce back candidates who we can likely flip at the trade deadline. Here is the list of players I would look into signing: AJ Pierzynski (if Lucroy is traded), Juan Uribe, Austin Jackson, Doug Fister/Mat Latos, Tommy Hunter, Bobby Parnell and Eric O'Flaherty. All of these players could have the potential to become assets by the trade deadline and should be available on one year deals. This is similar to what the Cubs did in 2014. If the Brewers can add a few additional prospects on the level of Yonathan Barrios and Zach Davies it will be worth it.

[jerichoholicninja]

Gennett was the 36th ranked 2B in WAR in 2015. He is, quite literally, a replacement player. I have no problem with starting a replacement player at 2B in 2016 since it is a rebuilding year, but 2B is a big position of need

 

Gennett was 4.5 WAR over his first year and a half, and basically that same player once he returned from his stint in AAA. Remember he got married early last year and I suspect that might be partially responsible for a terrible start.

 

Whatever it was, after Scooter came back up in June he put up .287/.314/.419 the rest of the year which is almost exactly what he did in all of 2014 which was .289/.320/.434. Last year MLB 2B put up .711 OPS. Scooter's career vs RHP is .796. When used correctly he's an above average 2B offensively. The real need is a 2B that can hit lefties to platoon with him.

[bill hAll Star]

I would focus this season on trading our assets for more prospects and signing bounce back candidates who we can likely flip at the trade deadline. Here is the list of players I would look into signing: AJ Pierzynski (if Lucroy is traded), Juan Uribe, Austin Jackson, Doug Fister/Mat Latos, Tommy Hunter, Bobby Parnell and Eric O'Flaherty. All of these players could have the potential to become assets by the trade deadline and should be available on one year deals. This is similar to what the Cubs did in 2014. If the Brewers can add a few additional prospects on the level of Yonathan Barrios and Zach Davies it will be worth it.

 

Agree with this. The ideal (within the realm of possibility) season would be to see what the Braves had this year. Smoke and mirrors start for faux contention. Trade some of the vets away, reality sets in, top 5 pick.

[DuWayne Steurer]

2016 to me isn't about worrying about positions of need or handedness of your lineup. It's about acquiring young, cost controlled talent, and evaluating the talent that we have.

 

Obviously you have to field a team, and you want to be as competitive as possible while evaluating and acquiring, but the "Biggest Need" should be "acquire as much young talent as possible".

 

I don't even care if we go into 2016 with Hernan Perez as our 3rd baseman. Lets see if he can add double digit homerun power to his game. Let's see if he can be an adequate utility guy. Going out this year and spending money on a 3rd baseman shouldn't be a need.

 

I want to see them positioning themselves for 2017, realistically, 2018 and beyond.

[reillymcshane]

I'm going to echo the sentiment that the next couple of years is about developing and acquiring quality players no matter what the position.

 

I want guys who project to be above average at their position. Obviously there's less need at a position such as SS (due to Arcia coming down the pipeline), but I don't think anyone else is a 'sure thing' in our system. Acquire and develop impact players - that's the key.

 

On a lesser note, you let borderline players see if they can improve (such as Perez at 3B or Rogers at 1B or whomever). Those kinds of players are essential to fleshing out a roster down the roac.

 

When we start putting together a team that could be in the playoff mix, then you start plugging specific holes.

[Devinep]

To be more specific than just "get young talent (duh)" obviously there's a need for more pitching, especially more high end pitching. There also isn't much of a future at 3B or 2B. Although 2B could be at least serviceable with Gennett and a platoon mate like Perez.

 

Getting a top pitching prospect or a top 3B or C would take giving up high value like Lucroy, but that should be done by Midseason anyway. Maybe sell high on Khris Davis to get top talent back

[3and2Fastball]

Whatever it was, after Scooter came back up in June he put up .287/.314/.419 the rest of the year which is almost exactly what he did in all of 2014 which was .289/.320/.434. Last year MLB 2B put up .711 OPS. Scooter's career vs RHP is .796. When used correctly he's an above average 2B offensively. The real need is a 2B that can hit lefties to platoon with him.

 

That makes sense. I appreciate the perspective

[bill hAll Star]

Another key note, to add to my lengthy posts in the pitching thread about cycling in a lot of buy low vets to peddle off or see what they have...is that you can see what a young pitcher has in middle relief. You don't just have 5 rotation spots to audition fringe players...you could have Jungmann and another new prospect as garbage, middle relief guys. When we're 20 games under .500, just let them pitch 4 innings at any point the first guy doesn't get past the 5th.

[ewitkows]

3B is a bigger concern going forward than scooter. We have a dearth of guys who can play 2B but no one long term at the moment who can play 3B

[logan82]

I don't think that word means what you think it means.