2016 Starting Rotation - outside help

[mertonmonk]

If we look at the starters from 2015 (including the minor league call ups), we have:

1. Garza (miserable year, but most 'veteran' presence). Hopefully he bounces back or can be moved.

2. Peralta (limited greatly by injury, but dependable)

3. Nelson (most reliable, hopefully no lingering issues from head injury)

4. Jungmann (started off nicely but was definitely falling off after first few starts)

5. Davies (had a few good starts but was also tailing off at the end)

6. Lopez (too few starts to comment, but seemed promising)

7. Houser

8. Barrios

 

Since the Brewers dropped a lot of payroll last year, my top wish for them is someone to play 3B. Someone with a higher batting average than Ramirez, even if we have to give a little on power since we have plenty of pop elsewhere in the lineup. I'm assuming Arcia will jump to the majors and take over SS so Gennett and Segura can platoon there.

 

After the 3B acquisition, the next biggest need is to beef up the starting rotation. I think Garza needs a change of scenery - it seems unlikely he'll rebound. Peralta and Nelson are good #2/#3 starters. I comfortable with Jungmann as #4 and best of the rest as #5. A veteran starter to replace that role with Lohse's departure is important. I doubt we can afford a true #1, but another #2 or #3 type would be a huge improvement. Hopefully the new pitching coach can help get as much out of the young starters as possible, and with Luc's all-year presence, they can mature quickly. What starters are out there and available as free agents or trades that would fit the #2/#3 mold that our payroll could afford?

 

With a decent hitting/fielding 3B and starting pitcher, this team would plug two big problems. Davis and Braun give us a lot of pop from the outfield. Hopefully Santana/Reed (and eventually Philips) can be an effective CF. If we have to rely on long stints of Maldonado as catcher, we're in trouble, because he's a big drop off from Lucroy offensively.

[MNBrew]

Two comments:

 

- Barrios was used by MIL as a reliever in the minors & bigs. That would indicate they don't see him as a starter at this point.

 

- Jungmann parenthetical comment is inaccurate:

"(started off nicely but was definitely falling off after first few starts)" was more like "started very nicely but experienced fatigue when pitching a 6-month rather than 5-month season for the first time" . . . . His last 4-5 starts were lousy, but he'd never pitched through September before. He was pitching very well up to that point.

[clancyphile]

Uhh... why look outside. It doesn't make sense.

 

The in-house options for the Brewers, who have been at AAA or higher in 2015 are:

Tyler Thornburg (who had a decent run as a starter in Milwaukee before he got moved to the pen)

Jorge Lopez (2nd round pick who had two starts in MIL this year)

Tyler Cravy (14 appearances, and good numbers at AAA)

Tyler Wagner (3 starts in MIL)

Zach Davies (acquired from Baltimore, had a good six start audition)

Ariel Pena (5 starts and a decent job in them)

Brent Suter (who broke out this year, and had a 3.43 ERA in Colorado Springs)

 

The only way to win this year's pitching free-agent market is not to play. There are plenty of in-house candidates. The Brewers don't need to overpay a veteran.

[reillymcshane]

I agree that you don't need to go outside the organization for pitching - the exception would be if you could acquire a top flight pitching prospect. Otherwise, you have a bunch of candidates of varying quality - time to see what they can do. We aren't going to be good, so we can live with a guy like Davies over the course of the year. Eventually, Garza has to go (hopefully we can trade him), and you open another spot. Plus there are the inevitable injuries that will occur. That will open the for Wagner, Cravy, Lopez, Hader and so forth to get an extended viewing. This will happen in 2016 and 2017.

 

As noted above, if you can acquire a top flight pitching prospect you absolutely do it. This would likely involve dealing established players like Luc or Braun (but not limited to those guys).

 

High upside pitching prospects are something we sorely lack. If we can get more, do it. But I don't want more back-of-the-rotation types. We have lots of those candidates.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd look to add one outside veteran starting pitcher who's available on a short term (2 years or less) and I'd just dump Garza, who even if he rebounds a bit, has very little trade value.

 

Brewers do have a plethora of young starter candidates, but virtually all could still use more seasoning in the minors or to delay their arby years or be used in deals to acquire talent at positions of need. If the season started today, my rotation would be Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann, Davies, and a value FA vet or Garza. Pena has a shot to be a bullpen arm. Lopez is the guy I'd groom to be the midseason addition when the vet is dealt. Peralta is another guy they might think about moving at the deadline if there are multiple guys that are forcing there way into the picture.

[superfly]

I'd like an arm in the rotation who can trot out there every 5 days and give us a good chance to win a game. There's nobody in our rotation outside Jimmy Nelson that has any hope of being an ace, and i'm not even sold on him being one. If we are ever to take the next step we will have to find one of these ace types in the next year or two. Too many average youngsters right now...guys who you can look at and say "He's a nice player," but suited for a back of rotation role.

[clancyphile]

I'd like an arm in the rotation who can trot out there every 5 days and give us a good chance to win a game. There's nobody in our rotation outside Jimmy Nelson that has any hope of being an ace, and i'm not even sold on him being one. If we are ever to take the next step we will have to find one of these ace types in the next year or two. Too many average youngsters right now...guys who you can look at and say "He's a nice player," but suited for a back of rotation role.

 

Of the starters I listed, Jorge Lopez seems to be higher than back-of-the-rotation, Suter put up very good numbers in Biloxi and Colorado Springs (note, Taylor Jungmann posted a 6.37 ERA there, over three points higher than Suter's), and Ortega seems to have extremely good control (his 0.7 BB/9IP in 2015 is in Greg Maddux territory). Tyler Thornburg also looked like he could have been a front-of-the-rotation guy based on his 2013 numbers.

 

Looking a little past the players I listed, Josh Hader seems to have top-of-the-rotation stuff, Cody Ponce is mowing folks down, Kodi Meideros has shown some stuff, and I think the Brewers could have a pair of DSL sleepers in Rodrigo Benoit and Carlos Luna.

 

I don't think there is just one profile that fits an ace.

[bill hAll Star]

In terms of the guys up right now, my views are:

 

A solid long-term piece that I'd still consider trading in a year or two: Nelson

Take him or leave him: Peralta (won't be here when the Brewers contend again unless it is as a cheap swing guy)

Never was that excited about, but is cheap help and worth seeing what happens: Jungmann

Low ceiling but worth having around for awhile: Davies

 

What I'd do is target buy low candidates to slot in the rotation. If it's a free agent, maybe Happ (his stock rose late), Masterson, Morrow. Edwin Jackson basically on a nothing deal. Kennedy's stock is probably too high but maybe something if it's a short deal. Fister maybe if he's cheaper than you'd think.

 

Look into trades for similar above players. Maybe eat the contract of a guy that used to have good stuff and take a prospect along with it.

 

Garza, Peralta, Nelson, and probably Davies start it out for sure. One of the external guys can join that as the 5th. If you find a 2nd buy low candidate, Davies can maybe go back down for just a little while until we need a spot. Jungmann can do long relief so we can still see what he's got. As somebody gets hurt or as you peddle off Garza, add one of the young guys into the mix.

 

Some might get mad for not getting to "see what we have" with this strategy, but I'd imagine we deal away Peralta, Garza, and/or these buy low candidates sometime in the next 2 years...with all of the concerns of the listed group and the idea of buying low, we'll need more internal guys to fill the rotation soon anyways.

[Devinep]

Stay internal for the rotation next year. Throw enough poop at the wall to see what sticks:

 

Opening day rotation:

Nelson

Jungman

Peralta

Garza

Pena ( for a few weeks to delay burning control for Davies)

 

By Midseason:

Nelson

Jungman

Peralta

Davies

Lopez

 

There are many other internal options, as discussed in earlier posts

[Baldkin]

I think the rotation needs a veteran presence next year, that Garza just won't bring.

 

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[JohnBriggs12]

Stay internal for the rotation next year. Throw enough poop at the wall to see what sticks:

 

Opening day rotation:

Nelson

Jungman

Peralta

Garza

Pena ( for a few weeks to delay burning control for Davies)

 

By Midseason:

Nelson

Jungman

Peralta

Davies

Lopez

 

There are many other internal options, as discussed in earlier posts

 

I like Davies. He's a competitor and not afraid to come after hitters. But he's not the type of guy I worry about losing one year of control over. He's earned the spot to start they year in the rotation. He's got options so if he struggles, he gets optioned (solving the control issue anyway) and it's next man up.

 

The reason to add a veteran to replace Garza is twofold. Garza isn't the type of veteran you want around a young staff, and even if he's okay for a couple a months, he still has little to no trade value unless they pay half or more of his salary. Sign a bargain veteran FA who if he succeeds will have actual value, and if he doesn't work out, then bring up a internal option.

 

Pena belongs in the pen.

[pacopete4]

I'm sure Lohse will be available....

[bill hAll Star]

 

The reason to add a veteran to replace Garza is twofold. Garza isn't the type of veteran you want around a young staff, and even if he's okay for a couple a months, he still has little to no trade value unless they pay half or more of his salary. Sign a bargain veteran FA who if he succeeds will have actual value, and if he doesn't work out, then bring up a internal option.

 

Honestly, given that I don't think anyone beyond Nelson as your #4, Lopez, and maybe Jungmann or Davies as fringe MLB/#5 guys ever being a part of a competitive 2018 or beyond Brewers team, I don't know what the issue with Garza is.

 

I don't claim to know too much about the guy, I know he's had a few scuffles behind closed doors, but I can't imagine him being that bad that I'd be afraid to put all of the fringe MLB starters that I have in the same rotation with him. You either have to trade him away (and probably take back another player with baggage or give up value to get rid of him), cut him, or pitch him. Just let him soak up some innings and keep some of our guys in the minors a little longer.

[jerichoholicninja]

 

The reason to add a veteran to replace Garza is twofold. Garza isn't the type of veteran you want around a young staff, and even if he's okay for a couple a months, he still has little to no trade value unless they pay half or more of his salary. Sign a bargain veteran FA who if he succeeds will have actual value, and if he doesn't work out, then bring up a internal option.

 

Honestly, given that I don't think anyone beyond Nelson as your #4, Lopez, and maybe Jungmann or Davies as fringe MLB/#5 guys ever being a part of a competitive 2018 or beyond Brewers team, I don't know what the issue with Garza is.

 

I don't claim to know too much about the guy, I know he's had a few scuffles behind closed doors, but I can't imagine him being that bad that I'd be afraid to put all of the fringe MLB starters that I have in the same rotation with him. You either have to trade him away (and probably take back another player with baggage or give up value to get rid of him), cut him, or pitch him. Just let him soak up some innings and keep some of our guys in the minors a little longer.

 

People are forming their opinions of Garza off of one poorly and inaccurately reported story.

[mertonmonk]

I'm not concerned by hush-hush reports about how a player acts behind closed doors - those reports are usually very inaccurate. Matt Garza with the 3.64 ERA from 2014 would be a nice part of the starting rotation. Matt Garza with the 5.63 ERA from 2015 is not. What will Matt Garza be in 2016? His career ERA is 3.99, so even a reversion to mean would be an improvement from 2015, but that's not the ERA of a #1 or #2 starter.

[3and2Fastball]

Bartolo Colon is exactly the type of pitcher Doug Melvin would sign if he was still the GM. Thank God he is not!

 

What exactly would be the point of signing a free agent pitcher? The Brewers aren't going to be a playoff team. Why waste money and take away innings from young pitchers who need development?

[bill hAll Star]

This is all about bringing in vets and even our current guys that have anything over a year or two of experience to continue flipping for more depth and help.

 

It's true that the Brewers, given they have a lot less major contracts to burn, will not be able to turn this sort of profit on working with vets, but you can get depth.

 

Again, look at the Cubs:

Samardzija - Addison Russell and Dan Strailey (used in Fowler trade)

Garza - Olt (he failed in the majors), Grimm

Dempster - Kyle Hendricks

Maholm - Arodys Vizcaíno

Scott Feldman - Arrieta and Strop

Hammel - Was in the Russell trade and then signed back.

 

Of course, this is a team that already had more money and some of these guys on the roster that also had the Edwin Jackson disaster, but this is what I'm looking for. Hopefully Garza can be flipped at the right time, sell Peralta when his value gets higher, sell Nelson in a year or two if he has high stock, cycle some buy-low vets in looking to flip, etc.

 

Less money to play with than the Cubs, but a smaller-scale idea of this. Bring in some buy low guys and see if you can milk some value out of them.

[bill hAll Star]

Bartolo Colon is exactly the type of pitcher Doug Melvin would sign if he was still the GM. Thank God he is not!

 

What exactly would be the point of signing a free agent pitcher? The Brewers aren't going to be a playoff team. Why waste money and take away innings from young pitchers who need development?

 

See my above post. Currently, Nelson is the only worthy MLB pitcher on the roster. I think Davies may be a back-end rotation guy for cheap. Jungmann probably isn't and Peralta is good enough but should be dealt as soon as his stock gets any higher.

 

Point is, we should be shuffling out a lot of pitchers. Guys that could be mainstays like Lopez will eventually get their share, but there is going to be a lot of crap to sift through from the young guys.

 

Heck, even with Nelson. The Astros dealt Bud Norris pretty early on and got Hader, Hoes (AAA/MLB depth), and a competitive balance pick.

 

The Brewers just need to keep throwing darts at the board and selling them off if any hit. Having cheap vets to either soak up innings or peddle off will just be another aspect of the rebuild.

[MNBrew]

Bartolo Colon is exactly the type of pitcher Doug Melvin would sign if he was still the GM. Thank God he is not!

 

What exactly would be the point of signing a free agent pitcher? The Brewers aren't going to be a playoff team. Why waste money and take away innings from young pitchers who need development?

 

See my above post. Currently, Nelson is the only worthy MLB pitcher on the roster. I think Davies may be a back-end rotation guy for cheap. Jungmann probably isn't and Peralta is good enough but should be dealt as soon as his stock gets any higher.

 

Point is, we should be shuffling out a lot of pitchers. Guys that could be mainstays like Lopez will eventually get their share, but there is going to be a lot of crap to sift through from the young guys.

 

Heck, even with Nelson. The Astros dealt Bud Norris pretty early on and got Hader, Hoes (AAA/MLB depth), and a competitive balance pick.

 

The Brewers just need to keep throwing darts at the board and selling them off if any hit. Having cheap vets to either soak up innings or peddle off will just be another aspect of the rebuild.

I get the logic to an extent, but at what point do you actually quit selling off young talent? What you're describing sounds like a never-ending cycle (or the Royals or Pirates for two decades prior to the past 3-4 years).

[billymac]

When you have a deep farm system and solid talent at the majority of MLB positions.

[bill hAll Star]

Yes, and to add to that, I'd say the Davis/Nelson line is the end of my line for selling everything off.

 

I'm just going to make a strong assumption that 2019 is the earliest possible date where we're serious about contending. Davis' final contract year is 2019 so I probably trade he and Scooter if I haven't already. Unless we're serious contenders right away, I probably trade Nelson as well as his last year is 2020. Of course, a ton of assumptions being made there, but that's probably when things should be set for a nice window of contention.