BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2015 Post-Season Edition

[Mass Haas]

John Sickels' site and reader comments --

 

Milwaukee Brewers organization discussion

 

Sickels will release more later this week...

Some more from Sickels with a list of his top 37 Brewers prospects, but merely listed in alphabetical order at this point.

 

Milwaukee Brewers preliminary prospect list

 

EDIT: Make sure to check out the comments section as Sickels made some adjustments to his original list (now at 35) and gives a preview by including his ranking (A-) and commentary of Orlando Arcia.

In the comments, in addition to giving Arcia an A-, he says that Hader is at least a B - maybe a B+ prospect.

 

He also mentions that Jorge Ortega and David Denson are C prospects (and didn't make his list). He noted the really low K rate for Ortega as a red flag.

Sickels hasn't posted his specific grades to each player, but he did post the grade breakdown of the Brewers:

 

A = Zero

A- = 1 (we know this is Arcia)

B+ = 3

B = 3

B- = 8

C+ = 9

C = 11

 

This was based on 35 guys he was considering for the list.

 

Very important - prior to 2014 we had 1 B (nelson) and 4 B- prospects. This year we are going to have 15 guys who are B- and above. That's a huge jump in two years.

 

We can probably make educated guesses at the B+ guys - Clark, Lopez, Phillips. Maybe Hader.

 

Hader was mentioned in the earlier posts as at least a B guy. Other B prospects could come from Lara or Kodi - and Sickels has always like Houser, Coulter and Devin Williams - so you never know.

 

No matter what, it's a greatly improved farm system.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/12/1/9814784/milwaukee-brewers-preliminary-prospect-grade-distribution-breakdown

 

December 2nd update:

 

To complete the three-part analysis process, John Sickels unveils his Brewers Top 20.

[MrTPlush]

Nothing like when your #20 prospect has #2 starter upside.

[ctmyers]

To be honest I wish we could slide Lara and Gatewood over to the 3B spot. I know they aren't because they are still playing SS, but realistically both will end up at 3B defensively. Gatewood should probably already be moving there. Errors aren't everything, but he had 28 last year. Maybe he could improve with time, but he was always expected to shift over to 3B. Why not just do it now and let him focus on offense?

 

I think we would still be considered a bit weak at 3B though. Lara is a long way off and Gatewood is a big project himself.

 

I think those moves are still a couple years away. Even though they don't have the tools as Gatewood, I have Demuth penciled in at 3rd for Brevard and Matos/Neuhaus splitting time at 3rd for Wisconsin. Neuhaus is only 3 months older than Gatewood, so there is still time for him to develop. And in the case of Lara, I don't know who else would play SS for Helena except for Franley, but he'll probably be in AZ to start next season.

[SRB]

To be honest I wish we could slide Lara and Gatewood over to the 3B spot. I know they aren't because they are still playing SS, but realistically both will end up at 3B defensively. Gatewood should probably already be moving there. Errors aren't everything, but he had 28 last year. Maybe he could improve with time, but he was always expected to shift over to 3B. Why not just do it now and let him focus on offense?

 

I think we would still be considered a bit weak at 3B though. Lara is a long way off and Gatewood is a big project himself.

 

Whether Lara and/or Gatewood are forced to move off SS is a separate question, but I hope we don't diminish their value in such a way just for the sake of trying to field an all homegrown team. There's nothing wrong with plugging in free agents at 3B if we have to. And, in any event, if Lara/Gatewood develop into top SS prospects and are blocked by Arcia or whatever, they would be more valuable than if they were 3B prospects and could be traded for an even better pure 3B (in theory).

[reillymcshane]

I'm just excited to see 16 guys with B- or better rankings. Outside of Arcia, we lack elite type guys, but a team like ours simply needs to produce a host of good prospects (as many will undoubtably fail). We have a lot of younger guys who have a chance to become A type prospects down the road - just like Arcia did.

[Mass Haas]

Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects

by Christopher Crawford and Baseball Prospectus Prospect Staff

 

Enjoy...

[Mass Haas]

Via BrewCrewBall and Kyle Lobner -- The Thursday Thinker: Top Prospects Past and Present

 

Wow, don't know when I'm going to commit to this, will need to really find my quiet place. I think it'd be much easier if you didn't have to also get the year exactly right, but yikes...

[CheezWizHed]

I just read one of the microbrew updates from the developmental league that talked about Gatewood and Lara swapping between SS and 3B by playing a week of each. They also mentioned that there is a possibility that both are in Wisconsin next year and doing the same thing. Not a bad idea...

[Mass Haas]

Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects

by Christopher Crawford and Baseball Prospectus Prospect Staff

 

Enjoy...

 

Via J.P. Breen at BPMilwaukee --

 

Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects: #11-20

[ZBTMP]

Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects

by Christopher Crawford and Baseball Prospectus Prospect Staff

 

Enjoy...

 

Via J.P. Breen at BPMilwaukee --

 

Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects: #11-20

 

Coulter may be raw defensively and slow to adjust at the plate, but his combination of power, age, and plate discipline has to be somewhere in the top 20, doesn't it? Nothing against Rivera, but I cannot see how considering upsides you can put him ahead of Coulter.

[And That]

Don't quite understand the rationale of putting either Hader or Houser behind Gatewood, but as Breen says, there's a lot of ways to logically sort that group of guys.

[MrTPlush]

Don't quite understand the rationale of putting either Hader or Houser behind Gatewood, but as Breen says, there's a lot of ways to logically sort that group of guys.

 

Because Jacob Gatewood has star potential and Hader/Houser are both most likely headed for the bullpen someday. That is the main reason most will rank them like that.

[PlayerHader]

Don't quite understand the rationale of putting either Hader or Houser behind Gatewood, but as Breen says, there's a lot of ways to logically sort that group of guys.

 

Because Jacob Gatewood has star potential and Hader/Houser are both most likely headed for the bullpen someday. That is the main reason most will rank them like that.

 

Hader has all the ceiling/star potential that Gatewood has and a much higher floor.

[MrTPlush]

Don't quite understand the rationale of putting either Hader or Houser behind Gatewood, but as Breen says, there's a lot of ways to logically sort that group of guys.

 

Because Jacob Gatewood has star potential and Hader/Houser are both most likely headed for the bullpen someday. That is the main reason most will rank them like that.

 

Hader has all the ceiling/star potential that Gatewood has and a much higher floor.

 

Hey man don't kill the messenger...from the article:

 

"The Chris Sale comps are fun, but the more likely landing spot for Hader is as a high-leverage reliever who can get both left and right-handed hitters out, but you can’t blame the Brewers for seeing if he can start."

 

I am sorry, but not a lot of experts are jumping on the Hader train right now. His control is still a huge hurdle for him and refining his secondary pitches. He still has time to grow, but right now most think he is on track for the bullpen. Jake Gatewood most likely gets the nod because of age. Too young to start cutting him down for every flaw he has and he was highly touted from the start. When young it is all about the potential while being an older prospect they start to critique those flaws/concerns.

 

My understanding is Josh Hader is being touted as a fancier Will Smith.

[Eye Black]

To be fair, another industry expert had a different take on Josh Hader...

 

John Sickels: "Posted 3.03 ERA with 119/35 K/BB in 104 innings in Double-A, 87 hits. I must be the high guy on him but he looks like one of the top LHP in the game to me, track record backs it up and he is not a soft-tosser, hitting mid-90s. Command can still wobble but secondary pitches seem to be developing well. Another mid-rotation candidate or at worst a power reliever."

[And That]

Jake Gatewood most likely gets the nod because of age. Too young to start cutting him down for every flaw he has and he was highly touted from the start. When young it is all about the potential while being an older prospect they start to critique those flaws/concerns.

Hader is less than 18 months older than Gatewood. There's not a huge age disparity.

[CheezWizHed]

Gatewood is also a pretty big boom/bust candidate. That was clear from the day we drafted him. At least Houser/Hader are closer and almost assured of making the MLB team at some point.

 

I also was surprised by Coulter being behind a number of guys in the top 20. I don't have him in my top 10, but certainly in the early teens.

 

But, opinions are like butts. Everyone has one and they can often stink...

[MrTPlush]

Jake Gatewood most likely gets the nod because of age. Too young to start cutting him down for every flaw he has and he was highly touted from the start. When young it is all about the potential while being an older prospect they start to critique those flaws/concerns.

Hader is less than 18 months older than Gatewood. There's not a huge age disparity.

 

I'm sorry let me clarify...more experienced. So Gatewood in the low minors vs. Hader is in AAA

 

Too add: Scouts think Gatewood has "boom" potential and Hader is more of a mid rotation arm at best from the looks of it now. Yes Hader could find some magic and be something more, but from a scouting perspective it supposably is too much of a long shot to write down at this point.

 

Once again don't kill the messenger, but that is just why I think he isn't getting the love some want.

[Mass Haas]

Scout Bernie Pleskoff's Top 10 Prospects in all of baseball

[PlayerHader]

 

Hey man don't kill the messenger...from the article:

 

"The Chris Sale comps are fun, but the more likely landing spot for Hader is as a high-leverage reliever who can get both left and right-handed hitters out, but you can’t blame the Brewers for seeing if he can start."

 

I am sorry, but not a lot of experts are jumping on the Hader train right now. His control is still a huge hurdle for him and refining his secondary pitches. He still has time to grow, but right now most think he is on track for the bullpen. Jake Gatewood most likely gets the nod because of age. Too young to start cutting him down for every flaw he has and he was highly touted from the start. When young it is all about the potential while being an older prospect they start to critique those flaws/concerns.

 

My understanding is Josh Hader is being touted as a fancier Will Smith.

 

Do you understand what ceiling means?

[MrTPlush]

 

Hey man don't kill the messenger...from the article:

 

"The Chris Sale comps are fun, but the more likely landing spot for Hader is as a high-leverage reliever who can get both left and right-handed hitters out, but you can’t blame the Brewers for seeing if he can start."

 

I am sorry, but not a lot of experts are jumping on the Hader train right now. His control is still a huge hurdle for him and refining his secondary pitches. He still has time to grow, but right now most think he is on track for the bullpen. Jake Gatewood most likely gets the nod because of age. Too young to start cutting him down for every flaw he has and he was highly touted from the start. When young it is all about the potential while being an older prospect they start to critique those flaws/concerns.

 

My understanding is Josh Hader is being touted as a fancier Will Smith.

 

Do you understand what ceiling means?

 

Yup and most scouts are not going to give Hader a high ceiling. Obviously like any other player they could put it all together and be a star...I can make that comment about most minor league pitchers. It's just that those odds get so low to a point where you aren't going to say their ceiling is any higher.

 

Like I said I am not arguing that Hader has this ceiling, that ceiling, future bullpen arm, a starter, or Chris Sale. All I am pointing out is why scouts are not highly touting him right now. A players ceiling isn't concrete it can change. Hader can go from a bullpen future to possible ace by next year. I remember 2 years ago people called Arcia just a solid future starter and I thought he was a future star primed to be a Top 20 prospect. It happened...

[Mass Haas]

BrewCrewBall with a nice summary and comparison of all the recent rankings by the established traditional sites (BA, BP, etc.)

[Mass Haas]

Can somebody do us a favor and please simply transcribe, 1-30, the list of names for MLB Pipeline in a follow-up post to this?

 

Their archiving is weak, and we never know who got bumped or moved when they update their list.

 

For instance, Javier Betancourt enters at #20, who got bumped?

 

Im pretty sure it was Woodruff who was bumped out.

 

MLB Pipeline Top 30

1) Orlando Arcia

2) Brett Phillips

3) Trent Clark

4) Tyrone Taylor

5) Gilbert Lara

6) Clint Coulter

7) Devin Williams

8) Jorge Lopez

9) Kodi Medeiros

10) Zach Davies

11) Monte Harrison

12) Jake Gatewood

13) Nathan Kirby

14) Josh Hader

15) Tyler Wagner

16) Taylor Williams

17) Michael Reed

18) Yadiel Rivera

19) Demi Orimoloye

20) Javier Betancourt

21) Marcos Diplan

22) Victor Roache

23 Kyle Wren

24) Miguel Diaz

25) David Goforth

26) Tyler Cravy

27) David Denson

28) Adrian Houser

29) Hobbs Johnson

30) Cody Ponce

 

Now as of 12/10/15 (Cecchini in at 20, LHP Hobbs Johnson out, everyone after Cecchini drops down one spot).

 

Johnson listed at 5'11, 230. As the videos show, while he's not a traditionally lanky lefty, he's not late-career David Wells, either.

 

And as has been noted by MLB.com's Pipeline guys, these rankings are due for a thorough self-assessment by the Pipeline team, as since the draft they've only been plugging in and out for transaction purposes, not truly shifting the list based on talent.

[And That]

Now as of 12/10/15 (Cecchini in at 20, LHP Hobbs Johnson out, everyone after Cecchini drops down one spot).

Johnson was booted when Flores came on board. Flores had his brief stay at #30 ended by Cecchini.

 

Of course, any list that has Ponce as #30...

[CheezWizHed]

Of course, any list that has Ponce as #30...

 

Should be ignored.