Colorado thin air vs. off speed pitches

[CheezWizHed]

I was reading some of the recent information on Adrian Houser. Reports state that his breaking pitches are better than his change-up. And given that he will probably be at AAA in Colorado next year, it got me thinking about how he might fare or how the air might force him to adjust.

 

Its pretty well known that breaking pitches don't do well in the thinner air. Breaking pitches require air friction against a spinning ball; thinner air=less friction=less break. But what about a change-up?

 

Most change-ups are thrown with a fastball arm speed/slot (or at least that is the goal), but without the middle finger transferring all of the arm speed to the baseball. There are other ways (palmball) that just cause inefficient transfer of force also.

 

But I don't think many change-ups rely on the spin of the ball, do they? Thus, pitching at AAA might be a benefit for people working on a change-up?

[JohnBriggs12]

It's hard missing bats in Colorado. So no matter what you throw, you are going to have plenty of base runners to deal with so it helps a ton if you can induce double plays. The guys who've had the relative success, like Ubaldo Jimenez early on, and Aaron Cook for while, have sink on their fastball, and a good defensive infield.

[MadScientist]

I was going to post some speculations, but Baseball Prospectus did a detailed analysis:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20069

 

I think the conclusion is that the best bet for pitchers is to pitch in another park.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think it's pretty much confirmed that the conditions effect pitches. The real question is how does it effect a pitcher's development? Is it mental? Do the coaches have to consistently remind the pitchers to trust their breaking balls because they will work in normal conditions. Is it physical? Do players start trying to do things to get more movement that will only lead to bad habits or even injuries. It sucks that that's where our AAA team has to play but they need to figure out how to not let it be a hindrance to pitcher development. Or hitters either for that matter.

[CheezWizHed]

I was going to post some speculations, but Baseball Prospectus did a detailed analysis:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20069

 

I think the conclusion is that the best bet for pitchers is to pitch in another park.

 

Interesting article. It really didn't directly address one main question I had (how much does a changeup rely on its spin?), but it did show the impact at Coors. Change-ups have an average Coors effect increase on BA, but a much larger increase on SLG.

 

So its the slider pitchers that will do the best in Colorado.

 

I actually don't mind our pitchers developing there. I think it makes them focus harder and be tighter with their control and repeatability.

 

Hitters, on the other hand, have it too "easy" there. Its got to be difficult to adjust to the movement of pitches after leaving that environment.

[MadScientist]

I was going to post some speculations, but Baseball Prospectus did a detailed analysis:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20069

 

I think the conclusion is that the best bet for pitchers is to pitch in another park.

 

Interesting article. It really didn't directly address one main question I had (how much does a changeup rely on its spin?), but it did show the impact at Coors. Change-ups have an average Coors effect increase on BA, but a much larger increase on SLG.

 

So its the slider pitchers that will do the best in Colorado.

 

I actually don't mind our pitchers developing there. I think it makes them focus harder and be tighter with their control and repeatability.

 

Hitters, on the other hand, have it too "easy" there. Its got to be difficult to adjust to the movement of pitches after leaving that environment.

 

Based on the physics of baseball, a change-up will be less affected than most other pitches, although any tailing motion will be reduced. However since fastballs will 'rise' less and curves will drop less, both pitches will be closer in ending position to the change. The result is fewer swing and misses, and more centered up balls.

[jerichoholicninja]

I was going to post some speculations, but Baseball Prospectus did a detailed analysis:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20069

 

I think the conclusion is that the best bet for pitchers is to pitch in another park.

 

Interesting article. It really didn't directly address one main question I had (how much does a changeup rely on its spin?), but it did show the impact at Coors. Change-ups have an average Coors effect increase on BA, but a much larger increase on SLG.

 

So its the slider pitchers that will do the best in Colorado.

 

I actually don't mind our pitchers developing there. I think it makes them focus harder and be tighter with their control and repeatability.

 

Hitters, on the other hand, have it too "easy" there. Its got to be difficult to adjust to the movement of pitches after leaving that environment.

 

Hitters and pitchers still only play half of their games there. You've just got to get the players to get it through their heads that it is what it is and there's nothing you can do about it.

[1992casey]

The problem is that the Sky Sox play a lot of opponents who also have crummy home conditions for pitchers. The desert isn't a whole lot better than the mountains.

[CheezWizHed]

Based on the physics of baseball, a change-up will be less affected than most other pitches, although any tailing motion will be reduced. However since fastballs will 'rise' less and curves will drop less, both pitches will be closer in ending position to the change. The result is fewer swing and misses, and more centered up balls.

 

That was my assumption in the OP, but the data collected in that article doesn't support it. The summary for change-ups would be similar effect to hit (increased AVE) as fastballs but they are hit harder (increased ISO) - presumably because a "hanging change" is easier to center on due to slower speed.

 

The problem is that the Sky Sox play a lot of opponents who also have crummy home conditions for pitchers. The desert isn't a whole lot better than the mountains.

 

I'm flashing back to these discussions on High Desert for A+ ball and all the players we skipped direct to AA.