Our Trade Asset Values

[Crash2303]

to decide whether or not to trade someone is obviously dependent on the value returned. so to help make the trade value of our assets more tangible, I've found comparable trades in the past 2 seasons that might reflect what we'd get on a return investment to help decide if/who we should trade. another factor is "when"- so I've included a timeline on when the trade would need to happen to have a similar return. I've also included a cumulative avg prospect rank at the time of the trade. Below includes our current top five 'speculative' trade assets- some included as a package to reflect the comparable trade:

 

1) Jonathan LuCroy & Wily Peralta package- [2016 trade deadline]

Comparable Trade: Gomez/Fiers (netted Santana-#82, Phillips-#29, Hader-#84, Houser- three top 100 prospects)

Qualification: EVEN- Peralta has a higher ceiling than Fiers, but Fiers has one more year of team control.

 

2) Jean Segura & Scooter Gennett [2018 offseason]

Comparable Trade: Zobrist/Escobar (netted Daniel Robertson-#66 & Boog Powell jr)

Qualification: OVER- both of the crew's players have higher ceilings than the A's infielders did at this time. in addition, both will most likely be traded before the 2018 offseason, making their contract length longer and more team friendly.

 

3) Adam Lind - [2015 offseason]

Comparable Trade: Brandon Moss (netted Rob Kaminsky -#62)

Qualification: EQUAL- 1.5 years of Moss is prob similar to 1 year of Lind

 

NET RETURN

Five, top 100 prospects! including one top 30 prospect and two other prospects who expect to reach the majors as contributors. and again, it is not unreasonable to think of this as a minimum return- that we could do better than this. especially too if we're able to get anything from other trade speculative assets like K-Rod, Garza not to mention guys not mentioned here like Braun & K. Davis. We're going to be Loaded!

[wildcat2237]

Nice writeup.

 

If we could trade all of these players this offseason, I would do it. Bringing in another 4 to 6 top 100 prospects would put the Brewers minor league system right where it needs to be if we plan on trying to contend somewhere in the 2017-2018 window.

 

2016 is going to be a mess, so why not really tank it big, get the #1 pick, and let young guys and career minor leagues play?

 

Trade Lucroy and play Maldonado and Ashley, or sign a cheapo veteran catcher like Dioner Navarro.

 

Trade Segura and see what we have in Sardinas for one year.

 

Let Yadiel Rivera, Elian Herrera or Jason Rogers play third for one year.

 

Trade Peralta and see what we have in Jungmann, Suter, Davies, Pena, Lopez, Houser, Wagner, and Thornburg. Heck, by the all-star break, Hader might be in the conversation as well.

 

Trade Lind and let Clark and Rogers play the position.

 

*Note: I would also like to see the team jettison Garza and Rodriguez. These guys are both notorious jerks that I really dont want around the young guys coming up. It would be nice if we could find a third baseman with a bad 1 year contract in order to do a change of scenery trade with Garza.

[TURBO]

Rodriguez is a jerk? I have heard only that he is a good influence on the clubhouse and the bullpen...

 

Now, if you are talking about his domestic life, then I can understand, but I don't think he is a jerk at all to his teammates.

[jerichoholicninja]

Rodriguez is a jerk? I have heard only that he is a good influence on the clubhouse and the bullpen...

 

Now, if you are talking about his domestic life, then I can understand, but I don't think he is a jerk at all to his teammates.

 

Agree about Krod. I'm not sure where the idea that Garza is a jerk came from either. He said some things he shouldn't have in the heat of the moment about a situation that the media played loose with the facts to portray it in the way they wanted it to. It's not like he attacked and choked a teammate in the dugout during a game or anything.

[paul253]

I like Peralta but it might be time to move him. He is just so inconsistent. We still have Garza Jungmann and Nelson and can easily fill out the rotation with two of Davies, Pena, and/or a cheap one year FA with the likes of Lopez Wagner Hauser and Hader all in AAA. I love the idea of packaging him with Lind or Lucroy to increase the return. Grab a third base, catching or starting pitching prospect at AA or higher and that's an ideal scenario right there.

[reillymcshane]

1) Jonathan LuCroy & Wily Peralta package- [2016 trade deadline]

Comparable Trade: Gomez/Fiers (netted Santana-#82, Phillips-#29, Hader-#84, Houser- three top 100 prospects)

Where is Hader listed as the #84 prospect in baseball? I checked Fangraphs Top 200, and he wasn't there. Baseball America didn't have him either. Both those were pre 2015, so maybe I'm missing an updated list.

 

MLB Pipeline, which is updated, doesn't have him in the Top 100. In fact, he's listed as Milwaukee's 14th best prospect - so he'd be way off that list.

[MrTPlush]

Jean Segura is worthless and a couple hot weeks doesn't change that. He is worth a hot -.1 WAR this year. Not to mention the .20 split between his batting average and on base percentage is a joke.

 

Scooter Gennett isn't worth much either as every team knows he is a platoon bat. Teams don't like platoon players. While he could be worth something to a team I am not sure it is all that much.

 

Your other ones aren't too bad though.

[Bnowell4evr]

1) Jonathan LuCroy & Wily Peralta package- [2016 trade deadline]

Comparable Trade: Gomez/Fiers (netted Santana-#82, Phillips-#29, Hader-#84, Houser- three top 100 prospects)

Where is Hader listed as the #84 prospect in baseball? I checked Fangraphs Top 200, and he wasn't there. Baseball America didn't have him either. Both those were pre 2015, so maybe I'm missing an updated list.

 

MLB Pipeline, which is updated, doesn't have him in the Top 100. In fact, he's listed as Milwaukee's 14th best prospect - so he'd be way off that list.

 

I believe he's a top 100 prospects according to Sickels. He was actually ranked 67th on the midseason update.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/3/16/8215045/top-175-mlb-prospects-for-2015-john-sickels

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/12/8940113/top-75-mlb-prospects-mid-season-update

[reillymcshane]

1) Jonathan LuCroy & Wily Peralta package- [2016 trade deadline]

Comparable Trade: Gomez/Fiers (netted Santana-#82, Phillips-#29, Hader-#84, Houser- three top 100 prospects)

Where is Hader listed as the #84 prospect in baseball? I checked Fangraphs Top 200, and he wasn't there. Baseball America didn't have him either. Both those were pre 2015, so maybe I'm missing an updated list.

 

MLB Pipeline, which is updated, doesn't have him in the Top 100. In fact, he's listed as Milwaukee's 14th best prospect - so he'd be way off that list.

 

I believe he's a top 100 prospects according to Sickels. He was actually ranked 67th on the midseason update.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/3/16/8215045/top-175-mlb-prospects-for-2015-john-sickels

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/12/8940113/top-75-mlb-prospects-mid-season-update

 

Of course, the one place I didn't look. Thanks.

[Roderick]

Now that Segura is hitting arby pay levels, I don't think he has any trade value. I could see if a team's starting shortstop got hurt in spring training, that they would give up something to get Segura, but I can't see a top 100 prospect.

 

At this point, I am willing to see if he can have a hot start and maybe increase his value at the trading deadline, but if someone gave me anything close to a decent prospect now, I would trade him in a heart beat. Play Sardinas/Rivera for a year until Arcia comes up.

 

Out of the shortstops in the majors that had enough at bats, Segura came in next to last for OPS.

[reillymcshane]

I think Segura's value is modest. It's not terrible, but it's not great either.

 

ML shortstops hit .259 BA with a .308 OBP last season. Their OPS was .688.

 

Segura's numbers were .257/.281/.616. As a hitter, he's been below average, but he's generally been a little above average as a defender. He offers plus speed and he's still pretty young (26 next March) - which means he could improve.

 

For most teams, Segura's not an upgrade, but for a few, he would be. The key is no one is probably willing to give much for a guy who's not much better than a replacement player - even if he does have some promise to get better.The best bet is to probably play the first 1/2 of 2016 with Segura and hope he looks better. If he's hitting .270 or .275 after a few months, and playing good defense, he's an attractive option for a few teams. Deal him at that point, and bring up Arcia. But for now, he's just not going to fetch much with two consecutive years of mediocre play.

[JohnBriggs12]

Rodriguez is a jerk? I have heard only that he is a good influence on the clubhouse and the bullpen...

 

Now, if you are talking about his domestic life, then I can understand, but I don't think he is a jerk at all to his teammates.

 

Agree about Krod. I'm not sure where the idea that Garza is a jerk came from either. He said some things he shouldn't have in the heat of the moment about a situation that the media played loose with the facts to portray it in the way they wanted it to. It's not like he attacked and choked a teammate in the dugout during a game or anything.

 

I've heard that Garza's rubbed people the wrong way wherever he's been. This was known, or should have been known, before the Brewers signed him. It's been talked about on Chicago sports radio for years when he was here. It's not anything blatant but the word is he's not been well liked by teammates and every team was happy he left.

[JohnBriggs12]

The objective is not to see how many top 100 prospects you can accumulate.

 

As Stearns said when he was hired, each city is different. Houston and Chicago both are huge media markets with much larger share of revenue coming from local television and radio that is banked whether or not the team is good.

 

Brewers on the other hand rely as much or more than any other franchise on gate receipts. Completely tanking the product on the field a. doesn't insure future success, and b. so hurts the gate revenue, that it might set the franchise back a lot longer. Rebuilding from within while still putting a product on the field people will pay good money to see isn't mutually exclusive and it's the best way for this particular franchise to operate.

[monty57]

Rebuilding from within while still putting a product on the field people will pay good money to see isn't mutually exclusive and it's the best way for this particular franchise to operate.

 

Ticket receipts are going down next year regardless of what the team does, but I have faith in Wisconsin fans to understand what's going on with their team. At this point, I think most would rather see a team of promising young players than see the team throw money at so-so veterans. Doing something like adding a veteran 3B on a one-year deal is fine, but I hope we don't hand out any 3-5 year, eight figure per year deals this offseason.

 

We should see around 2M fans through the gates next year, which is less than we've had in the recent past, but with a low payroll the team will still make plenty of money. I think much of this money will go into "infrastructure" (things like scouting and development), and some will be saved for the future, both of which will pay dividends down the road.

 

Crash, good job on the initial post. I will agree with others that the weakest of the comps is Segura/Gennett, neither of whom have a lot of trade value at this point. Your point about trading them in the 2018 offseason is interesting. Arcia should take over shortstop in 2016 or 2017, so by 2018, Segura will either be traded, moved to another position, or used as a utility guy. Personally, I think they should shop him now to see if he has any value. If not, he should keep the seat warm until Arcia is ready, at which point Segura would be a good utility infielder.

 

The other two comps (along with the moves we have already made) are why I am optimistic about the Brewers' future.

[Roderick]

Your point about trading them in the 2018 offseason is interesting. Arcia should take over shortstop in 2016 or 2017, so by 2018, Segura will either be traded, moved to another position, or used as a utility guy. Personally, I think they should shop him now to see if he has any value. If not, he should keep the seat warm until Arcia is ready, at which point Segura would be a good utility infielder.

 

The other two comps (along with the moves we have already made) are why I am optimistic about the Brewers' future.

 

If Segura starts all of 2016, his arby number will be too big in my opinion to offer him arby for 2017. So, I assume we would trade him at the 2016 deadline just to get something for him. I don't really know what comps there are, but I would assume he would be at least in the $4M+ neighborhood for arby in 2017, right? If so, I don't see any reason to offer him that when you can get close enough production from a pre-arby Sardinas or Rivera.

[monty57]

Good point about Segura, as he could be too expensive to be a utility guy. He could lose his job to Arcia early in the year (once Arcia won't lose a year of service), which could bring his price tag down some, but he would still probably be too expensive for a bench role.

 

I think the Brewers' management did a good job trading assets this year, but Segura could have been his one "miss." It sounded like teams had some interest in him when he got off to a hot start, but the Brewers said he was unavailable. They didn't put him on the market until he cooled off, at which point no one wanted to give up anything for him.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think Segura's best role at this point is as a super utility IF - he can play SS, 2B, or 3rd, can be a good pinch runner/defensive replacement, and actually wouldn't be a bad platoon-mate with Gennett. In that role on the 2016 team, he'd still get close to everyday playing time - particularly if they do the smart thing and keep Arcia in the minors until any arby clock timeframes have passed. The thing I'm most happy about with Segura is that a couple offseasons ago he wasn't awarded a lucrative contract extension to buy out a season of his free agency. Had that occurred, we would be talking about a player with zero trade value who makes far too much for a bench role on a small market club like the Brewers.

[jerichoholicninja]

Good point about Segura, as he could be too expensive to be a utility guy. He could lose his job to Arcia early in the year (once Arcia won't lose a year of service), which could bring his price tag down some, but he would still probably be too expensive for a bench role.

 

I think the Brewers' management did a good job trading assets this year, but Segura could have been his one "miss." It sounded like teams had some interest in him when he got off to a hot start, but the Brewers said he was unavailable. They didn't put him on the market until he cooled off, at which point no one wanted to give up anything for him.

 

I'd like to think Segura still has some trade value but I can't see why that would be so. We made all kinds of excuses for his terrible year last year but his 2015 slash is virtually identical to 2014 (.289/.326/.614 vs .281/.336/.616). He is what he is and this a well below average hitter and an average at best defender. You could try and play the "he's still young and might improve" card but in 3.5 big league seasons he's shown little to no improvement.

[monty57]

The thing I'm most happy about with Segura is that a couple offseasons ago he wasn't awarded a lucrative contract extension to buy out a season of his free agency.

 

I agree, but I think Melvin is/was pretty good with extension offers. I think the reason Segura turned down the offer is that it would have looked much more like Lucroy's deal than Starlin Castro's deal. While he would still be too expensive even on a "Lucroy deal," it wouldn't be too big a burden on the team's payroll, and as you mentioned he could be a decent "super-utility" guy, even if he were a little overpaid.

 

Actually, as Roderick pointed out, he will probably make more in arbitration in the coming years because he has been an everyday starter for several years (regardless of performance) than he would make if he had signed a "Lucroy-type" extension. That's the purpose of those extensions: the team guarantees the player money, regardless of how he plays or if he gets injured, so the player gives up potential money he may receive if he risks going year-to-year. With the way it has worked out, he might get enough in arby that the Brewers choose to cut him after the 2016 season, which they couldn't do if he had even a low-priced extension.

[wildcat2237]

I think they would be able to trade him before having to non-tender him. He's nothing special but there are teams like the Mets and Padres for whom he would be an upgrade.

 

I doubt we could get much more back than a fringe lower minor leagues guy. But I guess that would be better than a non-tender.

 

I personally look for Segura to get traded as part of a package this offseason or next deadline to make room for Arcia and/or Sardinas.

[JohnBriggs12]

Now that Segura is hitting arby pay levels, I don't think he has any trade value. I could see if a team's starting shortstop got hurt in spring training, that they would give up something to get Segura, but I can't see a top 100 prospect.

 

At this point, I am willing to see if he can have a hot start and maybe increase his value at the trading deadline, but if someone gave me anything close to a decent prospect now, I would trade him in a heart beat. Play Sardinas/Rivera for a year until Arcia comes up.

 

Out of the shortstops in the majors that had enough at bats, Segura came in next to last for OPS.

 

Yes he did, but the key here is "of the SS that had enough at bats". That implies comparison to bona fide starting major league SS, not prospects, AAA, or utility players and it's one year of 3 for a guy who is still only 25. It also shows a level of durability that teams also covet. OPS isn't the lone measuring stick for a SS either. Peralta in St. Louis is a great offensive SS but he can barely get the ball to 1B with his noodle arm and doesn't cover all that much ground either.

 

Not saying Segura's going to be in great demand or that you might not have to add a player to sweeten the deal to get what you want in return, but he certainly has some value.

[brewcrewdue80]

Rebuilding from within while still putting a product on the field people will pay good money to see isn't mutually exclusive and it's the best way for this particular franchise to operate.

 

Ticket receipts are going down next year regardless of what the team does, but I have faith in Wisconsin fans to understand what's going on with their team. At this point, I think most would rather see a team of promising young players than see the team throw money at so-so veterans. Doing something like adding a veteran 3B on a one-year deal is fine, but I hope we don't hand out any 3-5 year, eight figure per year deals this offseason.

 

We should see around 2M fans through the gates next year, which is less than we've had in the recent past, but with a low payroll the team will still make plenty of money. I think much of this money will go into "infrastructure" (things like scouting and development), and some will be saved for the future, both of which will pay dividends down the road.

 

Crash, good job on the initial post. I will agree with others that the weakest of the comps is Segura/Gennett, neither of whom have a lot of trade value at this point. Your point about trading them in the 2018 offseason is interesting. Arcia should take over shortstop in 2016 or 2017, so by 2018, Segura will either be traded, moved to another position, or used as a utility guy. Personally, I think they should shop him now to see if he has any value. If not, he should keep the seat warm until Arcia is ready, at which point Segura would be a good utility infielder.

 

The other two comps (along with the moves we have already made) are why I am optimistic about the Brewers' future.

 

Monty, time to withhold your attendance skepticism. 2013&2015 both pulled in over 2.5mil fans although the playoff potential was nil by mid-May. Playoff potential nets the team 2.8mil fans.

 

I'll bet you 5,000 right now attendance is closer to 2.5mil than 2mil next season. If you don't take that bet, you can't post anymore about Attendance&gate receipts leading the way to what decisions are being made. A 68win team still brought in 2.5mil+ after the start and fails of 2014. 250k+ reduction in attendance is over 4,000 people per game needing to decide not attending games next season. What are all those fans going to do with themselves next summer w/o tailgating?

[monty57]

Monty, time to withhold your attendance skepticism.

 

I've never been skeptical about Brewer attendance. Instead of "around 2M," I should have/meant to say "over 2M." I doubt they'll hit 2.5M, as the offseason ticket sales will be down after a losing season and won't get the bump they've received the past few seasons from the annual "name" free agent signing. Instead, we will probably see a "name player" or two dealt for young players, but the point of my post was that the team will still draw plenty of fans even in rebuild.

 

I do, however, think that the worry of attendance dropping was a big motivator for Attanasio over the past few offseasons, and a big reason he made some of his free agent moves (notably Lohse and Garza). I've felt for years that this was the wrong approach, as I've always felt the Brewer fans will show up unless they feel the owner is trying to cheat them out of their money (like they felt at the end of the Selig's ownership).

 

These are the same fans who cause opposing teams' cities to bump up their hotel rates and put Miller Lite on tap whenever the Packers or Badgers are in town... I have tremendous faith in them :-)