2016 Organizational Rankings

[ZBTMP]

Did anyone else's computer have serious issues from viewing that fangraphs site with Farnsworth's assessments?

 

I don't think I did. Overall not a bad list with some insight in there. Didn't know there was video of Miguel Diaz online. I agree with seeing Woodruff listed as he is on the list for most overlooked in the system.

The one I do struggle with is categorizing Ponce as a low ceiling-polished college arm. Yes, he seems adept at spotting his fastball, but he's hitting 97 in his midwest league starts and 98 in instructionals. Not sure he needs anymore projection. I understand concerns about his shoulder, but that doesn't put his ceiling at a #4 starter. His secondary stuff needs work, but its what you'd expect from someone who has been overpowering weaker competition and has been successful with relying on the fastball.

[CheezWizHed]

After reading the report and seeing the "surprises" in this particular report, I wonder if this projection has a dose of intended controversy built into it.

 

What benefit would the author have in putting out a cookie cutter version of other's rankings? This one is a bit behind all the rest of them. So to generate more "click traffic", I wouldn't be surprised if he built in some buzz-worthy variation to get people talking about it.

 

And if he is completely wrong, he "missed" on a secondary prospect that only us diehards have heard of, but still "hits" the major ones. And like a weather forecaster, most people don't track or expect high accuracy.

[Mass Haas]

Farm System Rankings: Under-21 talent

Red Sox, Dodgers boast best collections of youth among 30 teams

By Sam Dykstra / MiLB.com

 

Brewers and Rangers just behind...

[CheezWizHed]

Farm System Rankings: Under-21 talent

Red Sox, Dodgers boast best collections of youth among 30 teams

By Sam Dykstra / MiLB.com

 

Brewers and Rangers just behind...

 

Orlando Arcia, Brett Phillips, Trent Clark, Jacob Nottingham, Gilbert Lara, Kodi Medeiros, Cody Ponce, Devin Williams, Isan Diaz, Monte Harrison

 

Wow, that is almost our overall top 10

[Mudville9]

We are really just a Lucroy to the Rangers trade away from being #1.

[ctmyers]

2080's Preseason Top 125 Prospects - Three interesting additions (and two omissions) for the Brewers:

 

http://2080baseball.com/prospects/

[pogokat]

i think this list just proves how deep the brewers farm system has gotten. It also demonstrates that if everything breaks right, the Brewers could have 6+ guys on the BA list next year.

[And That]

I like Cody Ponce as much as the next guy, but his inclusion over Trent Clark is baffling. And the same rating as Glasnow?

[Jenkins5]

I'd be really disappointed if Ponce doesn't tear through BC pretty quick and have a strong campaign in AA this season. He just appears to be a guy who is advanced and built to move quick through the system. The hype on him since Fall Instructional has been off the wall.

 

Honestly, I just have a feeling Harrison, Gatewood, Diaz, Stokes and Clark are going to blow up this year at Wisconsin. If spring is a sign of things to come, this could be the best and most exciting T-Rat since Brewers took over. They are scoring 7-8 runs a game, Gatewood & Harrison are on HR binges right now, Diaz is collecting a double or 2 a game, and Clark & Clark are just never not on base. I'm not even talking Lara, Demi or any of the guys who may start out in Helena.

 

With a good draft, if these players play the way they are capable, and mix in a Lucroy trade, we will be #1 or no lower than top 3. Gatewood I think will rise more than any player in the system. I can believe how much everyone has just dropped off on him. His swing is long and K's a lot but he is a helium guy for sure.

[CheezWizHed]

I like Cody Ponce as much as the next guy, but his inclusion over Trent Clark is baffling. And the same rating as Glasnow?

 

Unless the next guy is from 2080.

 

I wonder if they guy has been reading this forum:

His best case profile would be that of a #2, his middle ground would be that of a #3, which is fine. He's definitely interesting.

 

I do remember your scouting report post. That and following him last year has me thinking he is going to be a fast riser. But my original post was questioning how a guy with a 70/60/60/40 on his best 4 pitches was "only" a middle rotation starter (per Kusiolek).

 

I suppose his rankings could be high compared to other rankings, but here is how BA ranks other pitchers:

Lucas Giolito Fastball: 80 | Curveball: 70 | Changeup: 55

Tyler Glasnow Fastball: 75 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50

Alex Reyes Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50

Jorge Lopez Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45

 

Ranking by Chris Kusiolek:

Cody Ponce Fastball: 70 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 60

 

So just be looking at his top three pitches, he compares favorably to Alex Reyes and Tyler Glasnow. Would they be considered #2s? (Honest question, I don't know).

 

Also interesting is that BA ranks Ponce's control better (50) than Lopez, Glasnow or Reyes (45), but worse than Giolito (60).

 

I can "kind of" understand Clark being missing (if he can't play CF, he loses a lot of value). But Jorge Lopez is a big head-scratcher too.

[Yount19]

Someone in the comments asked about no Trent Clark.. wonder if they are from here?

[reillymcshane]

John Sickels has his Top 175:

 

#11 - Arcia

#35 - Lopez

#48 - Phillips

#63 - Nottingham

#71 - Hader

#118 - Diaz

#136 - Clark

#143 - Coulter

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/3/28/11310760/the-top-175-mlb-prospects-for-2016

[fondybrewfan]

Clark has the potential to be a lot higher on that list in about 3 months; I am hoping he can at least show some decent power even if it isn't HR power. Coulter I am not sure about, maybe getting out of Brevard will help him.

[Outlander]

Interesting that Sickels had Lara at #8 when doing the Brewers top 20 but leaves him off the top 175 and adds Coulter.

[Jenkins5]

Coulter is going to go AJ Reed this year at Biloxi. I won't be shocked if he is at 15 bombs by June 1st. I expect a monster bounce back year, BC can make any power hitter look awful

[SRB]

Clark is arguably the best prospect in the system, to be honest. The rankings game is getting out of hand. Expectations for Arcia are way too high in my opinion, to use one example. (The fact that prospect pundits view defense-first shortstops as safe doesn't mean we have Carlos Correa here).

[sveumrules]

I really like Clark too, but there's always the chance his unique grip doesn't play against more advanced competition as he faces better velocity/movement more consistently.

 

Even if it does play, with his stature and approach he probably never developes anything more than league average power. On top of that he doesn't appear to have the top end range needed for CF or the top end arm needed for RF, so is probably best suited for LF.

 

My major league comp would be Nori Aoki with hopefully a tick more speed, pop & glove.

[ctmyers]

I really like Clark too, but there's always the chance his unique grip doesn't play against more advanced competition as he faces better velocity/movement more consistently.

 

Even if it does play, with his stature and approach he probably never developes anything more than league average power. On top of that he doesn't appear to have the top end range needed for CF or the top end arm needed for RF, so is probably best suited for LF.

 

My major league comp would be Nori Aoki with hopefully a tick more speed, pop & glove.

 

I'm fairly certain the grip has changed. There was a post recently with video of Clark, Diaz, Taylor and others and I think they addressed the adjustment.

 

I was thinking of a comp for Clark myself but all I can come up with is Hunter Pence. Underrated skills, highlighted by a hit tool with some interesting quirks.

[SRB]

Even if he doesn't develop plus power, if we're talking upside of 20-25 HR with a .400 OBP then you're you're looking at Shin-Shoo Choo or Jayson Werth wither better defense, or Andrew McCutchen if Clark actually sticks in CF.

[jerichoholicninja]

Clark is arguably the best prospect in the system, to be honest. The rankings game is getting out of hand. Expectations for Arcia are way too high in my opinion, to use one example. (The fact that prospect pundits view defense-first shortstops as safe doesn't mean we have Carlos Correa here).

 

I agree about Arcia. I feel he's gotten so hyped that he will only disappoint the casual fan. They're expecting Troy Tulowitzy but will be getting Jose Reyes.

[ZBTMP]

Clark is arguably the best prospect in the system, to be honest. The rankings game is getting out of hand. Expectations for Arcia are way too high in my opinion, to use one example. (The fact that prospect pundits view defense-first shortstops as safe doesn't mean we have Carlos Correa here).

 

I agree about Arcia. I feel he's gotten so hyped that he will only disappoint the casual fan. They're expecting Troy Tulowitzy but will be getting Jose Reyes.

 

I suppose I will have to settle for 28 WAR in his team controlled seasons then... Or do you mean the wife-beating below replacement level player the Rockies got?

Arcia putting up a 126 wRC+ being 4 years younger than league average has as much to do with his helium as his glove. He's not Correa, but he has more bat than Sardinas, Rivera, or even Alcidis Escobar had,

[jerichoholicninja]

Clark is arguably the best prospect in the system, to be honest. The rankings game is getting out of hand. Expectations for Arcia are way too high in my opinion, to use one example. (The fact that prospect pundits view defense-first shortstops as safe doesn't mean we have Carlos Correa here).

 

I agree about Arcia. I feel he's gotten so hyped that he will only disappoint the casual fan. They're expecting Troy Tulowitzy but will be getting Jose Reyes.

 

I suppose I will have to settle for 28 WAR in his team controlled seasons then... Or do you mean the wife-beating below replacement level player the Rockies got?

Arcia putting up a 126 wRC+ being 4 years younger than league average has as much to do with his helium as his glove. He's not Correa, but he has more bat than Sardinas, Rivera, or even Alcidis Escobar had,

 

I mean he's not going to be the super star, perennial all star that the hype he's gotten so far would warrant. He's going to be very good. I'm thinking slightly better than Elvis Andrus was early in his career.

[ZBTMP]

 

I agree about Arcia. I feel he's gotten so hyped that he will only disappoint the casual fan. They're expecting Troy Tulowitzy but will be getting Jose Reyes.

 

I suppose I will have to settle for 28 WAR in his team controlled seasons then... Or do you mean the wife-beating below replacement level player the Rockies got?

Arcia putting up a 126 wRC+ being 4 years younger than league average has as much to do with his helium as his glove. He's not Correa, but he has more bat than Sardinas, Rivera, or even Alcidis Escobar had,

 

I mean he's not going to be the super star, perennial all star that the hype he's gotten so far would warrant. He's going to be very good. I'm thinking slightly better than Elvis Andrus was early in his career.

 

I think I get what you are saying which is he is not a future #3 hitter (sabrmetric lineup optimization arguments aside) in contending lineup which I agree with; but...

Elvis Andrus was an all star 2 of his first 4 years and was runner up for ROY in one of the other 2 years. He produced between 3.6-4.3 bWAR in 4 of his first 5 seasons. If he gives us "slightly better" than that level of production his current current ranking is justified.

[MadThinker88]

John Sickels finally posted his system rankings. Brewers are 5th overall.

[Noche]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/4/2/11333890/minor-league-baseball-farm-system-rankings-for-2016

 

Yes, and Sickels considered the Brewers as part of the elite tier of farm systems.

 

Consensus seems to have the Brewers in that 5-10 range of farm systems. I have to think they are #1 for future major league caliber player depth. Stearns is taking the cream will rise to the top approach with this rebuild. They don't have anyone yet who can hit like Mazara or pitch like Urias but the Brewers have a boatload of well-rounded prospects.