2016 Organizational Rankings

[JohnBriggs12]

Uecker as a scout wrote down "marginal major league talent" for every guy he scouted. That way, he was never too far off.

[Eye Black]

Discussed earlier in the thread that the Brewers are 9th in Baseball America's organizational rankings, here is the entire list: Organization Talent Rankings: How They Line Up

[kalle8]

can't add anything to this thread but i do want to thank you all, great read.

[JohnBriggs12]

Ok so throwing out the one outlier that had them 21st, they seem to be a consensus top 10 now, with the 5th pick in this year's draft and more than likely a similar pick next year. Most of that I might add was done under Melvin. So can we put to bed the notion that they somehow still need to rebuild the system by continuing to trade off every player of value currently on the major league roster simply for more prospects? Can they get better? Sure. A consensus top 5 would be great but even that's no guarantee of future success at major league level.

[CheezWizHed]

So can we put to bed the notion that they somehow still need to rebuild the system by continuing to trade off every player of value currently on the major league roster simply for more prospects?

 

My guess is no. Because its not like anyone here controls it. Its pretty obvious from DS that they are shopping Lucroy at a minimum.

 

We are only reacting and speculating as to what the Brewers are doing.

[pogokat]

acquiring good talent isn't the idea; acquiring excellent talent that is at the beginning of it's cheap service time in the majors is the idea.

 

That's why trading a guy like Smith or Khrush makes sense---The brewers should acquire talent that will still be cheap and young in 2020, as opposed to having aging and expensive players.

[logan82]

So can we put to bed the notion that they somehow still need to rebuild the system by continuing to trade off every player of value currently on the major league roster simply for more prospects?

Heck no. Just means they have a good start. We need to accumulate as much talent as we can while we are not going to be competitive. Every player that will not be with us after 2017 should be moved for the best players we can get.

[adambr2]

Ok so throwing out the one outlier that had them 21st, they seem to be a consensus top 10 now, with the 5th pick in this year's draft and more than likely a similar pick next year. Most of that I might add was done under Melvin. So can we put to bed the notion that they somehow still need to rebuild the system by continuing to trade off every player of value currently on the major league roster simply for more prospects? Can they get better? Sure. A consensus top 5 would be great but even that's no guarantee of future success at major league level.

 

I don't think their rebuilding 'goal' was to ever be a consensus anything by anyone's standard. I think their goal is to put this team in the best possible position to win a World Series when the time is right again. So absolutely, they should continue to trade off players who won't be around when that goal becomes a realistic possibility again.

 

I don't know that it makes a difference whether they're top 5 or top 10, a farm system is something that can always be improved, whether you're #1 or #30. There is no level of 'too many prospects. '

 

And your statement of 'no guarantee of future success at major league level' illustrates that point perfectly. Yes, like any system, we are going to have prospects that flame out. But the more we have, the larger our margin for error.

[Eye Black]

We've bounced back and forth a bit on where we are putting these top 100 prospect lists, but with Baseball America's top 50 prospects being aired on MLB Network at 8:00pm CT tonight, here are the Brewers that ended up being ranked in the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: Nos. 51-100.

 

#59 - Jorge Lopez

#57 - Brett Phillips

 

Will find out tonight if anyone joins Arcia in the top 50, seems like Trent Clark could be a possibility.

 

EDIT: Two more Brewers additions to the BA top 100...

 

#49 - Trent Clark

#8 - Orlando Arcia

 

Here is the full list, Baseball America Top 100 Prospects

[SRB]

Four in the top-60 is pretty good. I feel like there's a bunch of guys who are on the verge of top-100 status.

[homer]

They seem REALLY bullish on Clark. He might skyrocket up the lists ala Arcia if he has a big year.

[And That]

Clark is my #2, behind Arcia. It's possible he could be knocking on the big league door by the end of next year.

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers were just plain lucky to get Clark where they were picking. I'd written him off as a possibility because several teams picking ahead of the Brewers had been watching him closely, I just figured he'd moved too far up the board.

 

He's very young, but the talent is obvious.

[Ennder]

KATOH farm system rankings lists Brewers as #1 overall.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-farm-system-rankings/

[CheezWizHed]

Clark is my #2, behind Arcia. It's possible he could be knocking on the big league door by the end of next year.

 

So starting at Wisconsin and then showing success at Biloxi for an extended period? (i.e. trying to translate what is meant by "knocking on the big league door")

 

That seems aggressive for most teams and extremely aggressive for the Brewers. I can see Clark as someone who doesn't need a full year at each level, but the Brewers seem loathe to have players skip levels. I could see him at Brevard at the end of next year, but I'd be surprised if he made it higher without an injury of some sort driving the promotion.

[CheezWizHed]

KATOH farm system rankings lists Brewers as #1 overall.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-farm-system-rankings/

 

Interesting. They admit that the system favors hitter heavy systems (like ours). And they omitted (for sample size reasons) the 2015 draft. So that number one rating doesn't include Clark, Kirby, Ponce nor Demi-O. But they did include Nottingham with the Brewers (quick reaction).

 

I wish they would specify how many prospects fall in each bin, but they do break it down by projected career WAR per group:

1.0-2.0 WAR: 17 WAR

2.0-3.5 WAR: 20 WAR

3.5+ WAR: 50 WAR

 

- So its hard to tell how many players are in each category. And they have a rounding error, as this adds up to 87 WAR instead of the 86 they state overall.

If we average the WAR, we would get this many players:

1.0-2.0 WAR: 17 WAR (Ave 1.5 WAR): about 11 players

2.0-3.5 WAR: 20 WAR (Ave 2.75 WAR): about 7 players

3.5+ WAR: 50 WAR (Ave 4.0 WAR): about 12 players

 

Plus, they talk about the Astros and their no-so-small army of 1.0-3.5 WAR type players. "a lot of prospects who feel like 'scouting the stat line' specials". Probably something we should expect in the future from DS.

[Fear The Chorizo]

KATOH farm system rankings lists Brewers as #1 overall.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-farm-system-rankings/

 

What's more impressive - that the Brewers top this list at all, or the sheer gap between them and the #2 system (Astros).

 

All weighting, flaws and skewing aside that makes all of these minor league system rankings projections differ - the fact that the Brewers went from a bottom of the barrel minor league system to one that's universally considered one of the ten best in basically a calendar year is quite impressive.

[And That]

(i.e. trying to translate what is meant by "knocking on the big league door")

Performing well in AA or AAA.

[Eye Black]

From the Baseball America Top 100 Prospect Chat...

 

Todd (Mckinleyville ca): Which farm systems do you see being at the top 3 years from now?

 

J.J. Cooper: That’s really hard to do as we don’t know who will be drafting high in 2017 and 2018. With the way the CBA slants spending towards the teams who draft at the top these rankings can change dramatically in three years. Trades also tweak too much. For instance, I would have never predicted three years ago that the Braves would be a top 3 org now, but then they have traded for a TON of talent in the past year. As far as who could lead this list next year? I’d say the Braves and Brewers. The Braves have a ton of high ceiling depth which could be higher ranked next year with solid development this year (Touki Toussaint, Austin Riley, Kolby Allard, Max Fried for example). Very few of their top prospects will likely graduate this year and they will add a big draft class (#3 pick) and spend a ton internationally this summer. The Brewers have a ton of prospect depth. They will graduate Orlando Arcia I would assume, but they will also draft high, and they have a lot of intriguing lower level prospects who could take steps forward.

[CheezWizHed]

(i.e. trying to translate what is meant by "knocking on the big league door")

Performing well in AA or AAA.

 

Do you think the Brewers will be that aggressive with him? He would almost need to start at Brevard in order to achieve that, wouldn't he?

[And That]

Do you think the Brewers will be that aggressive with him? He would almost need to start at Brevard in order to achieve that, wouldn't he?

No. He could (and may well) spend the whole year in Wisconsin. 2017, start in Brevard and get promoted after a few months.

[Mass Haas]

KATOH farm system rankings lists Brewers as #1 overall.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-farm-system-rankings/

 

What's more impressive - that the Brewers top this list at all, or the sheer gap between them and the #2 system (Astros).

 

All weighting, flaws and skewing aside that makes all of these minor league system rankings projections differ - the fact that the Brewers went from a bottom of the barrel minor league system to one that's universally considered one of the ten best in basically a calendar year is quite impressive.

 

FanGraphs -- How the Brewers Rebuilt Their Way Into KATOH’s Heart

[And That]

Ask BA - Who Just Missed The Top 100?

 

No Brewers in #101-120.

 

These Brewers received votes but were not in the top 120:

-Clint Coulter

-Gilbert Lara

-Jacob Nottingham

-Josh Hader

-Kodi Medeiros

-Ramon Flores (!)

 

So I guess you could say the Brewers had 10 of the top 209 prospects. Including Ramon Flores. KATOH is exonerated.

[reillymcshane]

BA Top 100 Right Handed Pitchers:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-position-rankings-righthanders/

 

#12 - Lopez

#77 - Ponce

 

BA Top 25 Left Handed Pitchers:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-position-rankings-lefthanders/

 

#15 - Medeiros

#16 - Hader

 

BA Top 20 Catchers:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-position-rankings-catchers/

 

#12 - Nottingham

[CheezWizHed]

FanGraphs -- How the Brewers Rebuilt Their Way Into KATOH’s Heart

 

Interesting quote from the article:

 

Clearly, the Brewers are hoarding prospects. But they aren’t hoarding top prospects. Instead, they’re collecting the most compelling minor leaguers they can get their hands on, and many of them cost next to nothing. Every one of these players has promising characteristics, but they also have notable flaws, which makes them somewhat risky.

 

I think this is what intrigues me about what DM and DS have done this past year. They have gotten some of the "scouting darlings" that hit the top 100 lists. But they have also taken advantage of adding a bunch of very low cost guys that other teams are not valuing. We talk about what Moneyball did 15-20 years ago. Stearns might be have found the next means of finding undervalued talent. But of course, the proof is going to be in the pudding when and if these players actually hit the MLB level.

 

The Lind trade intrigues me for this reason. Sure, he might have overpaid. Or maybe he overreached on a philosophy. But I'll be watching those three closely in the coming seasons. One of those guys reminds me (stature, scouting report, results) of a young Lopez. His results at A-ball weren't stellar, but we all suspected that it was only a matter of time. I think if this trade turns out a couple MLB players (one starter, one reliever) of any decent quality, it would lend a lot of credibility to the system of identifying talent.

 

Even if DS's philosophy turns out poorly, its an interesting turn of events after years of the bad trades that sent away good talent and returned little.

 

BA Top 100 Right Handed Pitchers:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/t ... hthanders/

 

#12 - Lopez

#77 - Ponce

 

BA Top 25 Left Handed Pitchers:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/t ... fthanders/

 

#15 - Medeiros

#16 - Hader

 

Four of the top 125 SPs in the MiLB is our system's Achilles heel.