2016 Organizational Rankings

[reillymcshane]

Arcia is the #3 SS prospect on the MLB Pipeline list behind Corey Seager and J.P. Crawford.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=ss

 

Arcia has long been revered as one of the premier defensive shortstops in the Minor Leagues, but it was his breakout performance last season that has him ranked among the top prospects in the game headed into 2016. After making strides last offseason in the Venezuelan Winter League, Arcia, in his first taste of Double-A as a 20-year-old, led the Southern League with 37 doubles and ranked fifth with a .307 average. He also finished among the leaders with 157 hits (second), 52 extra-base hits (third), 74 runs (fifth) and 69 RBIs (fifth). Arcia represented the Brewers at the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game in July and was named the organization's Player of the Year after the season.

 

Arcia is a gifted defender, to put it simply. His soft hands, excellent range and strong arm could make him a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop early in his career, and there aren't enough good things that can be said about his instincts and overall feel for the position. Arcia has always shown a knack for getting the barrel to the ball, but the quality of his contact improved considerably in 2015 and allowed him to get to his raw power in games more easily. On top of that, his plus speed helped him accrue at least 20 steals for the third straight season, and he should continue be a basestealing threat at the highest level.

 

Arcia is a well-rounded player who offers plus defense at a premium position, and when coupled with his offensive upside, it could make him an All-Star. Scouts also love his makeup and maturity, and the belief is that those intangibles will allow him to make a smooth transition to the Major Leagues.

 

Edit: Meant to put this in the Top 25 thread. My mistake.

[SRB]

There is a systemic bias against the farm systems of certain teams, including the Brewers. I don't mean that as some kind of conspiratorial allegation, there are a variety of reasons for it that are mostly unintentional, but as someone who follows prospect (punditry) relatively closely I am convinced that it's true. If you took all the same prospect and moved them to the Texas Rangers system we would be consensus top-5 right now.

[Eye Black]

Have it on good authority that when Baseball Prospectus releases their Top 101, four Brewers will be listed (one within the Top 50, OK, you know that one), and three within the back half.

 

Won't steal any more of BP's eventual thunder other than to mention that info for now.

Per Baseball Think Factory the Baseball Prospectus 101 was released to the public yesterday.

 

Here is the direct link to the PDF of the Baseball Prospectus 101.

 

For those that want to cut straight to the Brewers rankings, click the spoiler...

 

 

#12 - Orlando Arcia

#61 - Brett Phillips

#71 - Jorge Lopez

#99 - Trent Clark

 

[reillymcshane]

There is a systemic bias against the farm systems of certain teams, including the Brewers. I don't mean that as some kind of conspiratorial allegation, there are a variety of reasons for it that are mostly unintentional, but as someone who follows prospect (punditry) relatively closely I am convinced that it's true. If you took all the same prospect and moved them to the Texas Rangers system we would be consensus top-5 right now.

I don't know if it's a systematic bias against Milwaukee as opposed to a bias in favor of other teams. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think there are some teams that actively hype their prospects. This might be the team itself doing the work - or publications/sites/individuals who do the work. I think Peter Gammons has been accused of being a huge homer for Boston prospects.

 

Milwaukee, being a small market team, just doesn't have the champions of their system that other teams do. And let's face it, if a scout from the Red Sox calls a writer at BA or wherever and wants to chat - that can influence rankings.

[fondybrewfan]

Hader isn't a Top 100 talent by one organization but is what the #6 LHP prospect in all of baseball according to another organization. That makes a lot of sense

[Jenkins5]

Hader isn't a Top 100 talent by one organization but is what the #6 LHP prospect in all of baseball according to another organization. That makes a lot of sense

 

Baseball Prospectus clearly didn't follow Arizona Fall League or Hader at all in 2015. No way they not rate a player who dominated California league at 20 then was lights out at 21 in AA with good stuff & deception. Cross them off the list as respected & trusted national sites. All of those guys are rated below what most industry scouts have them at. BP clearly doesn't like our system too much.

[Mass Haas]

Scout Bernie Pleskoff with an NL Central-centic piece -- Hat Tip to Al's Ramblings for the link

[Jenkins5]

Kind of off topic but with the MLB Pipeline Top 100 coming out tonight and their top 10 list just coming out. Thought it would be good to make some predictions of the Top 100 list and discuss the top 10 position lists.

 

We had only 3 players rated in the top 10 in their positions. Only one other player was noted as just missing (in one of the 2 deepest fields in the rankings, RHP)

 

Orlando Arcia found himself at #3 at SS. Seager of course was #1, no debate there. Crawford though I think you could make a case for Arcia being rated above.

 

Hader was rated at #6 LHP in MILB. I think this is fair and almost seals the deal with him being a top 100 prospect. No way he was topping Urias, Snell, Matz, or Newcomb. You could make a great case for #5 though over Jay. He was #5 more due to draft position and stuff. He really didn't pitch great but was very aggressively placed.

 

Maverick Phillips fell in at #9 for OFs. OF I consider to be the 2nd most challenging list to make. I would argue he should have been higher, his lack of power after moving to AA killed him.

 

Jorge Lopez fell somewhere between 12-15 on both Mayo & Callis personal list. I believe they said the have 26 RHP in the top 100 so that bolds well for Jorge in the top 100.

 

Predictions for tonight

Arcia is be in the top 10

Phillips will fall between 35-45

Lopez will land between 40-50

Hader will be in the 50-60 range

Clark moves up to the 70-80 range

 

Lara, Mederois, or Williams I think all have outside shots at Top 100 in 90-100 range. Coulter & Taylor with down years pushed themselves out of contention for it.

 

Their Top 30 should look a whole lot different than it does now in Feb. when they release them.

 

I really like Mayo and even more so Callis (what a great steal from baseball america!) Interested to see how all this shakes out.

 

Overall look at top system based on position rankings

Reds (7): C (5), 2B (2) & (5), OF (10) RHP (7) LHP (7) & (9)

Pirates (7): C (4) & (6), 1B (2), 2B (6), 3B (5), OF (4), RHP (2)

 

A's (5): C (8), 1B (5), 3B (10), SS (8), LHP (8)

Rockies (5): C (7), 2B (4), 3B (3), SS (6), RHP (6)

Red Sox (5): 1B (10), 2B (1), 3B (2), OF (5), RHP (10)

Dodgers (5): 1B (6), 2B (7), SS (1), RHP (5), LHP (1)

Braves (5): 3B (6), SS (4) & (10), LHP (4) & (10)

 

Rays (4): 1B (7) & (9), 3B (8), LHP (2)

Cubs (4): C (1), 2B (3), 3B (7), SS (9)

Rangers (4): 3B (1), OF (2) & (3), RHP (8)

[Eye Black]

Predictions for tonight

Arcia is be in the top 10

Phillips will fall between 35-45

Lopez will land between 40-50

Hader will be in the 50-60 range

Clark moves up to the 70-80 range

 

Lara, Mederois, or Williams I think all have outside shots at Top 100 in 90-100 range. Coulter & Taylor with down years pushed themselves out of contention for it.

 

My predictions (which will probably look silly in 45 minutes) for the MLB.com Pipeline list would be Arcia somewhere in the 8-15 range. Phillips in the 40-60 range. Hader in the 50-65 range. Lopez in the 65-85 range and Clark somewhere beyond 80. I don't expect anyone else to make the list, but one guy that is going to continue to gain prospect helium heading into the season is Demi Orimoloye.

[wichmae]

5 players in top 100 and Arcia in top 10

#6 Orlando Arcia

#32 Brett Phillips

#57 Jorge Lopez

#61 Josh Hader

#83 Trent Clark

[Jenkins5]

5 players in top 100 and Arcia in top 10

#6 Orlando Arcia

#32 Brett Phillips

#57 Jorge Lopez

#61 Josh Hader

#83 Trent Clark

 

Not bad at all! They raved about Arcia when discussing him.

 

2013 Top 3

1. Profar

2. Bundy

3. Tavares (RIP)

 

That class hasn't worked out so great.

[MrTPlush]

Hader isn't a Top 100 talent by one organization but is what the #6 LHP prospect in all of baseball according to another organization. That makes a lot of sense

 

Josh Hader is a bit of a long shot to be a starter and for that reason he is going to have rankings all over the place. Honestly Hader probably isn't going to be durable enough to last as a starter. His high effort delivery, small frame, and low arm slot is a deadly combination for a starter to be effective long term.

 

That said a lot of people doubted a guy like Tim Lincecum so Hader isn't doomed to be in the bullpen. Though even if he does make it as a starter how long will he be effective?....well probably not too long.

 

 

On a more unrelated note every updated list makes even more mad we didn't draft AJ Reed in 2014. I am sure a lot of you guys have guys you really wanted the Brewers to draft and they didn't...well AJ Reed is my guy. Wanted him badly at #41, we instead went with Jake Gatewood, and AJ Reed went #42. Still mad to this day.

[reillymcshane]

5 players in top 100 and Arcia in top 10

#6 Orlando Arcia

#32 Brett Phillips

#57 Jorge Lopez

#61 Josh Hader

#83 Trent Clark

I think that's pretty sweet. If we deal Luc, we could add another one or two as well.

 

What's nice is the first 4 guys will likely be at AAA this season, meaning they aren't far off from getting to Milwaukee.

 

The high rankings are nice, but ultimately, guys have to produce. Let's hope we can avoid injuries.

[Jenkins5]

Passing on Joey Gallo for Mitch Hanigar really upset me. To guys I was dying to get Lindor, Baez, or Fernandez with at least 1 or two of our picks. I figured Lindor would be gone. Baez broke my heart, wind out of my sails. Everything source had him linked as our guy with Springer. Glad we got Jungmann & Bradley though.....

[Eye Black]

MLBPipeline.com's Top 100 Prospects Article includes a leader board of total "Prospect Points" using a breakdown by organization of players making their top 100 prospect list. The Brewers rank 8th in total points:

 

[pre]Team Players Points

Rangers 5 353

Rockies 6 325

Dodgers 5 319

Red Sox 4 316

Braves 5 302

Twins 6 293

Pirates 5 274

Brewers 5 266

Astros 5 253

Nats 4 249[/pre]

 

Among other NL Central teams just missing the list above, the Cubs had 6 prospects in the top 100, and the Reds had 4 prospects on the list.

[Eye Black]

The Baseball America Prospect Handbook arrived in the mail today, and as always includes the organizational rankings of each team from #1-30. The Brewers organizational rankings over the past five years have been:

 

2011 - 30th

2012 - 25th

2013 - 22nd

2014 - 29th

2015 - 21st

 

And now the 2016 Brewers organizational ranking (click the "Show" button)....

 

 

9th!!!

 

Much better than some of the other organizational rankings we have seen for the Brewers thus far. Other NL Central team rankings are Pirates at 11th, Reds at 12th, Cardinals at 14th, and Cubs at 20th.

 

The BA Prospect Handbook introduction page notes the organizational rankings were updated through December 21st.

 

[Eye Black]

A couple of more observations from the Baseball America Prospect Handbook.

 

First, the depth of the system really stands out in the grading system. Now, including the addition of Isan Diaz, the Brewers have 13 players that receive a BA grade (player ceiling) of 55 or higher (55 is considered a first division regular or #3 starter). When I have time I will go through and see how many teams (if any) have more than that, but I promise it isn't very many. For quick comparison the Rangers and Dodgers systems each have eight total players with 55 or higher grades (the Dodgers by the way are the #1 team in the organizational rankings). The Angels system only has one player that has 55 or better ceiling, and it is a 55 with "Extreme" risk.

 

Also noted on the handbook introductory page is that Trey Supak from the Pirates trade, who is listed in the book as the #20 prospect in the Pirates system, is mentioned as slotting in at #30 in the Brewers system. A 10 spot drop in the system rankings just by going from the Pirates to the Brewers. That says a lot about the depth of the Brewers system since the Pirates system is considered pretty good in its own right.

 

Lastly, the handbook does not contain a consensus top-100 ranking (BA will release that later), but each of their top four contributers (Ben Badler, JJ Cooper, Matt Eddy, and John Manual) list their personal top 50. Based on the personal lists, it would appear the BA top 100 prospects might be the most flattering yet regarding the Brewers top prospects. Three of the four have Trent Clark in their personal top 50, and Badler specifically has three Brewers in his overall top 30. High praise for the Brewers, looking forward to the combined BA top prospect list.

[logan82]

We have depth but do we have many stars? I think we have a few young guys who could really take off but not necessarily guys who are expected to be stars yet.

[Eye Black]

At the lower levels I would say yes, the Brewers have a good handful of players that have the potential to become future stars. They won't all become stars obviously (or even all become major leaguers), but the system has many young players with high ceilings. The guys with the 55 ceilings aren't just the guys currently rated at the top of the system, in some cases they are teenagers like Marcos Diplan who has the ceiling to be special, but a lot of development to go with high risk against achieving that ceiling.

 

Using a retroactive example, back in 2012 Orlando Arcia was rated as a 55 ceiling by Baseball America, but he was listed as the Brewers #22 prospect (in what was considered a weak system). His ceiling is obviously higher now that he has surpassed expectations, but it is telling that even back when he was 17 years old others were able to identify the potential for a lofty ceiling.

 

While there is certainly a large amount of risk that the younger players won't ever reach their ceilings (and in many cases the variability is so extreme that they also have a low floor), there is a lot of potential payoff to having as many high ceiling players as possible at the lower levels. Sometimes they do turn out to be stars.

[logan82]

I guess that is what I am saying. There seem to be quite a few guys who could go either way in the lower levels. A lot of upside but they could be nothing. Our system could look even better in a couple years.

[jjfanec]

I am even more intrigued to where this system is ranked in the future. Add another draft with a very high pick, the eventual trade of Lucroy (and maybe even Braun) and I would not be surprised to see this system ranked top 5 at this time next year. If Philips and Arcia stay in the minors all year and produce we could be looking at a very special system as other players hopefully emerge.

 

I dont follow enough to know where the Brewer's system should be ranked but looking at it compared to the last few years it sure seems like it should be in the 10 -20 range

[Eye Black]

Had a chance to digest a little more of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook.

 

Since the Handbook was published the Brewers have acquired six players that were listed in other teams top 30 lists: Isan Diaz (Dbacks #9), Garin Cecchini (Red Sox, #30), Trey Supak (Pirates #20), Rymer Liriano (Padres #23), Freddy Peralta (Mariners #15), Daniel Missaki (Mariners #30). They also lost one from their own top 30 list, Tyler Wagner (#19).

 

For the 5th straight year the Handbook included BA Grades which is a number grade that represents a player's ceiling which is also coupled with a player's risk factor to reach the ceiling which ranges from Extreme to Low. According to the introduction they continue to be tougher graders each year. A players ranking within the system isn't just about ceiling since sometimes players with 50 ceilings (or in some cases 45 ceilings) that have low risk factors (i.e. typically means closer to becoming a major league player) are ranked more highly. In some cases even players that are considered top 100 prospects don't receive BA Grades of 55 (i.e. Jose Peraza has a 50 BA Grade, but a low risk factor).

 

I went through each teams top 31 prospects (they include a supplement of each team's 31st prospect). Of those 930 prospects that were ranked in the Handbook, 217 of them received a BA Grade of 55 or higher. Again, that refers to ceiling, and doesn't necessarily represent the best 200 players. Still, its a good way to see the divide between players that Baseball America considers having the ceiling to become first division regulars or mid-rotation starters or better. The examples BA gives for a 55 major leaguer are Todd Frazier, Gio Gonzalez, Craig Kimbrel. Of course of the 217 players I mentioned, some are 60's, some are 65's, a very small handful are 70's (no one grades better than 70).

 

I mentioned 217 prospects had BA Grades of 55 or higher, which averages out to 7.2 per team. I went through and looked at each team while also taking into account players with BA Grades of 55 or higher that were traded since the book went to the publisher (i.e. Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, Isan Diaz... and that's just from the Dbacks system). While it is not necessarily vindication that one system is better than another, it would seem that having many high ceiling players is at least a good thing versus not having a system stocked with high ceiling potential.

 

Only five teams had a double digit number of prospects with BA Grades of 55 or higher. The Brewers had the most prospects in their organization with a BA Grade of 55 or higher. Here is the leaderboard:

 

13 - Brewers

12 - Braves

11 - Astros

10 - Cubs

10 - Mets

9 - Phillies

9 - Rays

9 - Rockies

 

For those interested, here was the bottom five (from least to most):

1 - Angels

3 - Marlins

3 - Dbacks

4 - Orioles

4 - Mariners

 

EDIT/NOTE: See responses from Baseball America staff later in this thread. -- Jim

[And That]

Thanks for that post, Eye Black - great insight. Further proof that ranking the Brewers' farm system in the lowest third of teams has little basis in reality.

 

Also, completely jealous that my book hasn't arrived yet.

[fondybrewfan]

Yes very insightful.

 

What is very exciting is that the Brewers generally have 5 guys in the Top 100 already in Arcia, Lopez, Hader, Clark, and Phillips and none of those guys will probably graduate to MLB this year. And you could make the case for anywhere from 5-10 guys that COULD make the leap to a Top 100 list by the end of the year based on talent (Medeiros, Williams, Lara, Harrison, Gatewood, Coulter, Ponce, Diplan, Kirby, Diaz, etc). Obviously not all of those guys are going to make the leap but odds are at least a couple will. So at this time next year could the Brewers potentially have 7-10 guys in the Top 100? Not out of the realm of possibility. Plus the 2016 draft will add more talent as well.

 

Still need more upper echelon Top 25 type guys but definitely making a lot of progress.

[Mass Haas]

That was a nice bit of research -- I'm sending John Manuel, J.J. Cooper, and Matt Eddy a direct link via email should they wish to share among their Baseball America brethren.