Braun v. Maybin (and Francoeur vs. Fielder)

[Past Member]

Well we can agree to disagree, I would much rather have Francouer on my team than Fielder, and I would much rather have a guy who is aggressive as opposed to one who is patient. This whole Moneyball, Francona, LaRussa "save outs" style is not the way I prefer.

 

And if you want to say that the Brewers have a system wide "patience" guide, I wouldnt want to use that as a supporting argument, because the Brewers big problem is scoring runs.

 

Only time will tell if Francouer or Fielder has the better career, my money is on Francouer.

[TooLiveBrew]

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Only time will tell if Francouer or Fielder has the better career, my money is on Francouer.

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How much money would that be? I'd take that bet.

 

But something tells me you'd be using your own method of interpretation as opposed to widely used and recognized standards, so something tells me that no matter what you'll view yourself as coming out ahead.

 

Fielder will have more HRs, and better numbers across the board in terms of hitting. That's how most people evaluate a player's career. I admitted readily that Franc. is the better defender, but you seem unwilling to recognize that Fielder is the superior offensive player. I don't think that's simply my opinion

 

(though I doubt you'll admit to that)

[Past Member]

Superior? Well, lets look at the numbers...they both have almost the same amount of time in...The only thing Fielder has on him is his OBA and walks....their batting and slugging averages are comparable, Fielder strikes out more frequently, they hit home runs about the same pace, Francoeur drives in more runs and scores more, and he has hit .300 as well as having the defensive skills. All of the Fielder fans out there believe he is going to hit for average...I will believe it when I see it, but Francoeur has shown that he can do it (albeit in a shortened season. So I think your assessment that Fielders offense is superior is premature at this time.

[Mass Haas]

I'm just going to chime in and say I've thoroughly enjoyed the discourse on this thread since its inception. Best thread in both terms of content and civility in months, if not years, in my eye, anyway.

 

I doubt it has received the audience it deserves here on the Draft Forum, perhaps we should link to it on the Major League Forum as well.

 

Good stuff, guys....

[TooLiveBrew]

Your last post illustrates your ignorance of reality, and causes me to question your 'authority' in assessing ballplayers. I've got work to take care of, but will be back on later to explain myself.

[Mass Haas]

Ugh -- I mention "civility", and the dreaded "ignorance" word shows up moments later. We really need to find a synonym that suits the purpose.

[TooLiveBrew]

Sorry about that, I didn't mean it with any sense of negativity, whether anyone believes that or not. I meant it in the sense of ignoring what's really present.

 

So for a civilized rebuttal:

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Francoeur drives in more runs and scores more, and he has hit .300 as well as having the defensive skills.

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With your good knowledge of the game, you should be the first to admit that runs scored and runs driven in relies too heavily upon teammates. This is like evaluating a pitcher primarily on his wins or ERA -- it's not entirely accurate. Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann are all better offensive options than Francouer, where Fielder is his team's #3 or 4 hitter (and was for a bulk of 2006). Francoeur is not feared in his lineup (or accounted for) the way Fielder is in his.

 

As far as the hitting .300, well, that was nice, but it was a mid-season call-up, where his opposing pitchers were not familiar with Francoeur. Once they were ready for him in 2006, his BA dipped 40 points. That's a more accurate sample space, if you ask me, especially for a guy that has a career .282 minor league BA.

 

BA aside, even you, bradyo, can acknowledge that OBP is a better indicator at the plate, since it accounts for both hits and BBs. Francoeur's OBP at the major league level is a woeful .305, to Fielder's .344. Since you may discount this fact for some unknown reason, let me also point to Fielder's better minor league OPS & SLG% (.922 to .808; .524 to .478 )

 

In addition to that, Fielder's superiority continues, at the MLB level:

 

an .825 to Jeff's .782 OPS, and both the SLG%s & OBPs, not surprisingly, are also Fielder's categories

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All of the Fielder fans out there believe he is going to hit for average...I will believe it when I see it, but Francoeur has shown that he can do it (albeit in a shortened season. So I think your assessment that Fielders offense is superior is premature at this time.

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Well, here's why: Fielder, over 1635 minor league ABs, boasts a BA of .297 (& and OBP of.398 ) , to Francoeur's .282 (& .330 OBP). I think you'll be "seeing it" in the pretty near future.

 

All Francoeur "proved" is that he could hit .300 off pitchers that didn't know his scouting report. Once they did, he "proved" he could barely surpass .250. He's neither a .300 nor a .250 hitter, but somewhere in between -- as his minor league stats point to, and MLB stats reinforce.

 

But your sentiment (of cheapening OBP/'patience') ultimately wrecks your argument to me. If you want to argue results, we can start that you admitted the two players are essentially equal, right now, at the plate. But if you continue in a fair & safe estimation, you can see that Fielder's power numbers will improve this year, and we are likely to see an OPS above his 2006 .830. If you think I'm wrong to forecast this, please tell me. But at least consider Fielder's track record as opposed to your sentiment(s)

 

On the other hand, Francoeur needs to prove he can replicate his 2005 numbers, which stand out as an anomaly, given his minor league track record. The only time he matched or surpassed his .885 OPS (MLB 2006) was in 147 ABs in Rookie Ball (.930). Fielder's .830 MLB OPS from 2006 was lower than any year in the minor leagues.

 

In fact, Fielder's .764 OPS in 59 ABs in 2005 was his worst total since a .704 OPS in 112 ABs in Beloit (A Ball) as an 18-y-o rookie. The next year, Fielder promptly mashed a .935 OPS over 500+ ABs at Beloit.

 

So I see your assessment that Francoeur is in Fielder's neighborhood in terms of offense as ignoring the facts in front of you. You may like Francoeur better, and feel that his defensive skill makes him the better overall player. But he's not even close to being the same, let alone the better, hitter -- at this point, or any point in their young careers. And, to echo Colby, I don't see any reason to expect Francoeur to eclipse Fielder offensively at any point in their careers, unless Prince's body goes the way of Cecil's

[TooLiveBrew]

One last note -- Francoeur was asked by the Braves to focus on drawing more BBs in 2006, and posted that atrocious 23/132 (BB/K) ratio - which, sadly, wasn't even a statistical improvement from his rookie year 11/58. This inability to make any change in his approach, coupled with the declining results posted in 2006, suggests to me that we will never see Francoeur draw any more than maybe 40 BBs in a season. His professional max, to this point was 30 BBs over 524 ABs at low-A ball in 2003 (K'd 68 times)

 

I want to make abundantly clear that I am acutely aware of the difference between patience at the plate and OBP. The two are related, but not the same. They are indicators of each other, but not explicitly tied. While I can begrudgingly accept that you want a guy to go up hacking, I can't accept you saying that OBP is overrated. That's like saying BBs don't really matter for a pitcher. Both cases the player is essentially only relying on himself - not teammates - and the stat is a critical determinant in said player's success.

[Past Member]

Once again, agree to disagree. The numbers you quote about Fielder and Francoeur are based on projections and trends, sure those things have meaning, but that is about all that they have, they dont have value. You say things such as I "see" Fielder, and I "project" Fielder, and Fielder "will, these are all assumptions. The things I stated about Francoeur are things that have happened, their is fact to back it up. You make valid points about OPS and OBA. And although your point about surrounding hitters in the lineup holds water, each hitter is an individual, still has to hit, still has to score and still has to drive in those runs, and he is doing it. And lastly, I dont see any pitchers pitching around Fielder, so I wouldnt call him "feared".

[TooLiveBrew]

about "feared": semantics. I should have stuck with his place as the 3d or 4th hitter, and the 'surrounding hitters' stuff

 

As far as this...

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The numbers you quote about Fielder and Francoeur are based on projections and trends

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You forgot to say "facts and evidence." I just got done comparing "things that have happened" in BOTH players' careers. Included in that is displaying how you are wrong to cite Francoeur as the one that has "done it."

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The things I stated about Francoeur are things that have happened, there is fact to back it up.

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Actually, the things you said about Francoeur were to conveniently fit your argument & sentiment, and I think I pretty well showed you how Fielder is, has been, and in all likelihood will be --- objectively --- the better hitter.

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You say things such as I "see" Fielder, and I "project" Fielder, and Fielder "will, these are all assumptions.

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Actually, I provide a ton of unbiased evidence as to why I say these things, and make safe assumptions. I asked you to tell me if you felt I was being unreasonable, not whether or not I was forecasting Fielder to surpass his .830 OPS from 2006, or if there's some "has already happened" stat to prove that he has done something which, by nature, is in the future.

 

To help prove to you why Fielder will do so, I gave you an overwhelming body of evidence that you have seemingly ignored (note there's no negative connotation in that form of the word...)

 

And all you can come back with is unsubstantiated claims? "The things I stated about Francoeur are things that have happened..."

 

Yes, and I showed you how Fielder has already proven to be the better hitter, and additionally showed you why I doubt Francoeur to ever be near Fielder, yet you still claim "Opinion! Lack of information!'

 

I understand if you found my post too long (or too convoluted) to read, but don't make the claim that I'm the one lost in sentiment, when it seems pretty clear you refuse to acknowledge the facts of the matter.

 

I don't want to leave a hostile tone -- I really enjoy this discussion bradyo. I just find it incomprehensible that you still claim -- after having it essentially proved against you -- that Francoeur is equal or better. It's like handing a jury the body, murder weapon, fingerprints, motive, opportunity, and a witness.... and having the verdict read, "Not guilty!"

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree we can agree to disagree, but I just feel like you're ignoring objective information in order to form your opinion, where I'm taking care to be well-informed. If, in my search, I had found Francoeur to be the better producer, I would have readily admitted it.

[Past Member]

Well, your last post having been said, sure, you have shown things about Fielder that he does better than Francoeur. And it is true that I do not like Fielder, but when it comes to baseball, i never let personal opinion about a player cloud my judgement of that player. That having been said.....people who do projections and trends and things like that forget that when you do that you can potentially project out to infinity and the guy could get killed in a car crash coming home from work that night. So until I see it having been done, I dont see it happening. When do you decide to draw the line? Do you say "ok Fielder had 2 HR his first year and 28 his next so this year I see him hitting 64 HR"...or "Fielder had an increase in HR production of about 32% year over year, so this year he is projected to have 37"....These measures tend to forget that each pitch is a game within itself and as much as a guy has a chance of hitting 600 HR in a year, he also has the chance to hit 0. So Francoeur hasnt walked, his oba is just above .300, still doesnt take away from the fact that he has driven in 100. And regarding your "around him" thoughts....well what good is a guy if he is the lone hitter in a lineup hitting well and hitting a lot of HR, if he is the only guy doing it. Francoeur may have benefitted from having better players around him and guys to drive in and drive him in, but it doesnt decrease his productivity, and I will also add that that was as a #6 hitter.

 

Overall, Francoeur adds more to a team than Fielder does, in my opinion. You can talk to your blue in the face, and people on the outside of this issue we discuss could both claim that we use statistics to prove our own point of view, so who wins?

[TooLiveBrew]

True, but until this most recent post of yours, you didn't even acknowledge that I had some facts to prove what I was talking about.

 

Bradyo, I want to make sure to come revisit this discussion near or at the end of the 2007 season. We'll have a lot to talk about, I'd bet.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

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So Francoeur hasnt walked, his oba is just above .300, still doesnt take away from the fact that he has driven in 100.

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Ok, this is still a major sticking point for me, and one from which you will not quit. Try this on for size: "So Tim Hudson walked almost 80 batters in 2006, and had a career-worst 1.44 WHIP. That doesn't take away from the fact that he still won 13 games."

 

Ask any ATL fan what they thought of Hudson's 2006. He had career worsts in many categories (ERA, ERA+, WHIP, HRs, ERs, Losses). But if you ignore what the player can control, and focus only a category which the entire team determines, then you can make Hudson look pretty good, with: "Tim Hudson won 13 games in 2006, and had a winning % over .500."

 

That's 'accurate', but it misses the real truth. In the categories up to him exclusively, Hudson was not sharp. And to generalize a player like "Well, shoot 100 RBI, he must be better than Fielder" is silly, no offense intended. You, IMO, prove my argument for me to show that, in spite of Francoeur's poor individual stats, the team-determined stats (R, RBI) were still good. That tells me his teammates are better than Fielder's were in 2006, and if you know both these teams, it's pretty clear that's what's going on here.

[igor67]

THere are a variety of sophisticated ways to address your notion of game within a game point of view and most of what you talked about is why PECTOA includes collapse and breakout rates as part of it's profile. It is clear that whether or not you realize it your world view is strongly influenced by Mark Twain's awful quote about statistics.

This notion that because people can be misleading with statistics means that they don't have any true meaning is a very passive agressive attitude towards science. It is one thing to differ in opinions it is another to say I cannot be proven wrong unless you can back that argument up on epistimelogical grounds.

[GagneCY03]

Interesting how this thread went from Braun vs Maybin to Fielder vs Francouer. I guess I'll chime in.

 

Francouer did very well last year at driving runs in, because he hit .320 with runners in scoring position. He also had Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones and Brian McCann hitting in front of him most of the time. His average in that situation is likely to decline, however, as pitchers exploit his over-aggressive nature and near inability to draw a walk.

 

Fielder was considerably worse with RISP, though he also had lesser hitters in front of him. Given his patience and age, he's likely to improve.

 

The problem with ignoring patience is you're ignoring one of the main components of scoring runs. You say you like to have batters who drive runs in, but it would be difficult for them to do that if there was no one on base. And when you have a guy getting on base less than 30% of the time, he's not helping the team.

 

And this is only one year. I'd bet on Fielder's power numbers / RBI numbers to rise as Francouer's fall.

[mothershipconnection]

While they may be the most "truthy" of stats, I can't believe it's 2007 and we're still stuck on "the big 3" for hitters.

 

And regarding your "around him" thoughts....well what good is a guy if he is the lone hitter in a lineup hitting well and hitting a lot of HR, if he is the only guy doing it.

I don't really get this. Production is production, regardless of how good or bad your teammates are. You don't suck simply by association because your teammates suck.

In fact, I'd say it might be more impressive when you put up good numbers on a bad team, because you could easily just mail it in and start thinking about your winter golf trips.

[Never Outhustled]

Two points about Braun versus Maybin:

 

1. Maybin signed for a bigger contract than Braun despite being a lower selection. If you prefer Maybin, then you should probably list the Brewer selections than year you'd throw away to get within the teams budgett.

 

2. Why is Maybin given the edge defensively because he plays CF? Maybins speed is good, but not great. Some suggest Braun is actually faster, and he would likely be a CF if he was switched to the OF. Its very possible Maybin loses speed and outgrows CF as he matures. He doesn't have the arm for RF, so doesn't he lose some luster as a possible LF?

[indiansfan99]

Very interesting discussion guys, from the outside I've always admired the job Jack Z has been doing over the years for the Brewers, you have to admire his conviction in his philosophies. I can only compare his draft philosophy with what the Indians have done, its a very interesting contrast.

 

When Indians SD John Mirabelli took over in 2000 he was widely considered to be a SD who had a prep bias but over the years he has basically done a 180 and now Cleveland usually approaches the draft very conservatively. The Indians havent picked a HS pitcher or position player with its first selection since '01

 

Alot of this is believed to be b/c of the failings of his first 3 drafts in '00, '01 and '02. Cleveland had a ton of early picks those 3 years but very little success in terms of producing big league players, they drafted the likes of Corey Smith, Derek Thompson, Dan Denham, Alan Horne (didnt sign), J.D Martin (who they have high hope for still), Mike Conroy, Jake Dittler, Tavis Foley, Sean Smith, Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Whitney, Micah Schilling.........All these guys were awarded very high bonuses and to date only Guthrie had ever donned an indians uni (though he was waived).

 

As an organization they came to a realization that they couldnt continue to have such poor results for the resources they were ploughing into scouting and player development. Nowadays they operate by having a very strong college emphasis early in drafts then they tend to take some more 'riskier' prep picks in round 3-4 and later and try to sign those prospects with above slot bonuses.

 

In '03 they took Aubrey and Brad Snyder with their 1st 2 picks then took Adam Miller with their next selection, in '04 a they took college pitchers in Sowers, Justin Hoyman and Scott Lewis and then in round 4 they paid Chuck Lofgren $700K to sign. The '05 drafting left a lot of Tribe fans frustrated, they took Trevor Crowe in the first round but the frustration came from failure to sign 1 of a trio of flyers they took in the later rounds namely Cody Satterwhite, Aaron Shafer and Tim Lincecum. They didnt get anywhere with Satterwhite but they thought they had Shafer signed only for the kid to have a change of heart. They offered Lincecum $750K but he turned that down (wise move on his part, but he sure would look good in our 'pen today!). last year they paid HS lefty Ryan Morris 2nd round money after taking him in the 4th round.

 

The Indians basically try to manage the risks better by going safe early then taking some HS flyers in later rounds and paying them above slot to sign them. I personally am not a huge fan of this policy, I understand its merits but for the last few years the Indians have overlooked a lot high ceiling HS talent in the early rounds, for example I love Sowers but who would you want long term him or Homer Bailey?

 

I think both the Indians and maybe the Brewers would be better served from a more balanced approach between HS and college, but these differences is what makes the draft so interesting.

[colbyjack]

...for example I love Sowers but who would you want long term him or Homer Bailey?

 

Sowers http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

Seriously, Sowers is already proven at the big-league level. Bailey is not. I may answer the question differently a few years down the road, but right now gimme the proven commodity.

 

Thanks for joining in indiansfan99, always nice to have different perspectives. Your point is a good one in that no philosophy is the right one. It isn't about what you take (college vs. HS) but who you take.

 

Adam Miller is another good reason why you shouldn't ignore prep pitchers early in the draft.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

I would like to mention that this is the thread that brought me back.

 

This was a good discussion and one that she be revisited often when more information becomes available.

 

As far as Jack Z's ability goes I always look at where he failed. Krynzel, Josh Murray, Eric Thomas (x2), and yes Mark Rodgers.

 

It would appear that his weakness is that he "wishcasts" a little too much in the higher rounds.

 

When the Canadians came on board what changed? DFE's became more to the forefront. Anything else?

 

Watching him build the Padres system from scratch I still believe that Grady Fuson is the best with Logan White quick on his heels, but their "philosophy" isn't all that different from the Brewers.

 

Now watching Dayton Moore build the Royals as the good 'ol Braves West, is going to be fun.

[Past Member]

One additional note on Francoeur and Jack Z...

 

Today I saw on ESPN that their analysts, and not that this means all that much, but both Kurkijan and Phillips (I think) say that Francoeur is the best bad ball hitter in the NL. The flip side of this is that in the AL that guys is often mentioned to be Vladmir Guerrero....I would still much rather have a guy who hammers pitchers pitches, like Francoeur. I dont care if he doesnt walk.

 

And on Jack...He has been at this for 7 years now. When Schuerholz took over, it only took him about 3 years, along with Cox to build that franchise into a powerhouse, and as the previous poster mentions, Id look for KC to have the same results in a very short period of time. At some point the SD's performance has to be reflected on the Major League roster/standings...and so far...Jack Z hasnt measured up.

 

It of course is possible that if all stays healthy this year, that could change, but Jack Z, I think, is about 3 years overdue for a major review of his performance.

[colbyjack]

And on Jack...He has been at this for 7 years now. When Schuerholz took over, it only took him about 3 years, along with Cox to build that franchise into a powerhouse, and as the previous poster mentions, Id look for KC to have the same results in a very short period of time. At some point the SD's performance has to be reflected on the Major League roster/standings...and so far...Jack Z hasnt measured up.

 

A few things, you're comparing a scouting director to a general manager (Schuerholz, who was hired in October of 1990 by the way) and a general manager/manager (Bobby Cox, who took over as the Braves GM in October of 1985).

 

If you're trying to compare anyone to the legendary Paul Snyder, the Braves scouting director for two decades, you should then note that it took Snyder (who took over his post in 1981) 10 years to provide his organization with enough talent to put them over the top.

 

Plus, Cox and Schuerholz inherited quite a bit of talent. When they took over the GM posts in 1985 and 1990 respectively, neither one was around to be responsible for the procurement of holdovers such as Ron Gant (4th round, 1983), David Justice (4th round, 1985), Jeff Blauser (1st round, 1984) and Tom Glavine (2nd round, 1984), four of the Braves most notable homegrown talents from the 1991 team. The only other big-name in-house talent that significantly helped propel the Braves starting in 1991 was Steve Avery, who was the 4th overall pick IIRC in 1988.

 

In other words, it takes more than just a few years to build up talent. Although that was obvious before bringing these points up.

 

Sorry, this was just another bad comparison that really holds no value in trying to bring Jack Z. down.

[SoCalBrewfan]

While you can argue that the scouting department has missed on guys like Kazmir, Weaver, Drew and Bard, they have hit on so many other players.

 

I would go further here. I don't think we really know for sure what the Brewers' scouts thought of Kazmir, Weaver, or Drew, because each of those guys slid a long way in the draft for reasons other than talent. For whatever reason, the Brewers have never taken a swing at a guy like Drew or Nady as they slid...that applies to many Boras clients of course, but others as well IIRC. The most popular interpretation is that it's a matter of frugality, but I think in part they want to choose guys whose signing expectations are clear and who will get signed and start their career ASAP. The Maybin negotiations took a long time IIRC, and at one point the Tigers took their offer off the table out of pure frustration.

 

While I've often wished for the Brewers to take a shot at a tough sign like this, apparently they don't want that kind of risk...better the risk that comes with a 18-year-old RHP I guess.

 

Interesting thread though...wish I'd seen it earlier.

[Pudster13]

I took a look back at the players I would have selected at the time each pick came up for the Brewers on Draft day since 2000, if I were the scouting director at the time. I actually liked a lot of the same players as Colbyjack.

 

2000- Chase Utley (after Baldelli & Stodolka were already taken)

 

2001- Aaron Heilman (I was also high on Kotchman, but wanted a college pitcher)

 

2002- Prince Fielder (Favorite Jack Z pick, even at the time. I was also high on Kazmir, Hamels & Loewen)

 

2003- Ricke Weeks (Actually wanted Delmon Young over Weeks, but liked both players)

 

2004- Homer Bailey (Sowers was my second choice, didn't have Rogers in the top of the first round)

 

2005- Cameron Maybin (Was also high on Zimmerman & Clement)

 

2006- Kyle Drabek (Really, really wanted Travis Snider to fall to our pick.Also, liked Morrow & Scherzer as college pitchers)

 

2007- My Brewer draft board based on likely available

1. Matt Wieters C(likely will be gone)

2. Josh Vitters HS 3B (ditto)

3. Ross Detwiler LHP

4. Andrew Brackman RHP

5. Jason Heyward HS 1B/OF

6. Daniel Moskos LHP

7. Madison Bumgarner HS LHP

8. Mike Moustakas HS 3B

9. Michael Burgess HS OF

10. J.P. Arencibia C

 

I would take the best player available that is not a high school pitcher if I were the scouting director this year.

[JoeHova]

I'm not sure I agree with all the talk about how great this thead is. One side sems to be using facts and reason and the other seems to be neglecting to do so.