Looking Ahead - Your 2016 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

[CheezWizHed]

These late season promotions have got me wondering how many guys will skip further ROK+ ball. We could have an interesting convergence of the last two drafts:

 

Jake Gatewood - SS

David Denson - 1B (made #33 of top #25)

George Iskenderian - 2B (2015 - 7th Round)

Sthervin Matos - 3B (Borderline if he did enough to be promoted)

Jose Cuas - 3B (2015 - 11th Round)

Franly Mallen - SS (Intl' Signing 2013)

Max McDowell - C (Jump up from AZL ball, but will be 22 next year. 2015 - 13th Round)

 

Malik Collymore - LF (2013 - Round 13 draft by Cardinals)

Trent Clark - CF

Monte Harrison - RF

Troy Stokes - OF (2014 - 4th round, Made #27 on the top 25)

Demi Orimoloye - OF - (Might be premature, but close if not)

 

Marcos Diplan - SP (Intl' signing by Rangers. ROK+ all-star)

Eric Hanhold - SP (2015 - 6th Round)

Nate Griep - SP (2015 - 8th Round - did little this year, but kind of normal for a college drafted pitcher)

Jake Drossner - P (2015 - 10th Round)

Drake Owenby P (2015 - 12th Round)

Conor Harber - P (2015 - 16th Round)

J.B. Kole - P (2014 - 8th Round)

Nathan Kirby - SP (well, what could have been...)

Devin Williams - SP (probably will move to A+, but an outside chance to repeat)

David Burkhalter - SP (ERA was bad, but peripherals were good. An outside chance to repeat. 2014- 6th Round)

 

Bold indicates they are the BF.net top 25

 

If Kirby was healthy and Williams was held back, the pitching staff would look much better. But not many other options after Diplan. Might this be the year the Gatewood is moved to 3B and Iskenderian/Mallen start at SS?

 

That OF could be a 3 All-Star OF next year.

[CheezWizHed]

I'll admit that it was looking better in my mind than when I put it on paper. Big holes at P (beyond Diplan), C and maybe 3B kind of dull the team plan.

 

But they have a potential for a high powered offense.

[Jenkins5]

I'll admit that it was looking better in my mind than when I put it on paper. Big holes at P (beyond Diplan), C and maybe 3B kind of dull the team plan.

 

But they have a potential for a high powered offense.

 

Don't forget Miguel Diaz

[CheezWizHed]

You think they will jump him from AZL to WI? I perused the AZL roster and he didn't jump out as one to make the jump due to only pitching 20.1 innings this year.

[FVBrewerFan]

Brandon Diaz. Also, I think Medeiros starts in Appleton, certainly before Devin Williams would. But I'm thinking both start off there. Also, I think a couple more position players repeat

[Jenkins5]

You think they will jump him from AZL to WI? I perused the AZL roster and he didn't jump out as one to make the jump due to only pitching 20.1 innings this year.

 

I do if he is healthy, he would have been in Helena this year if not for injuries. Believe they kept him in Arizona to monitor and manage his arm more. The talent is all there.

 

Burkhalter I could see repeating for sure. Kodi, not as much. I def don't see Williams. Brandon Diaz was cruising after an awful first month / month and a half, with our great wave of OFs, I don't forsee him or Rubio being held back. They are too talented and raw to not get ABs. Neuhaus is a guy who could slot in at 2b next year to start. He will only be 20 almost all season. Maybe his and Matos hot streaks to finish year help get them to BC as well.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Assuming Harrison is ready to go to start the season, that outfield is really crowded, and Belonis, who closed the season really well, hasn't even been mentioned yet.

[CheezWizHed]

Miguel Diaz: Its not a question of talent. Given his injuries and only 20.1IP (only 47 IP in 2014), I'd guess they take it slow and let him start at Helena. He will be 21 next year, but no real need to rush him. A possible candidate to bump to Wisconsin after the draft.

Belonis: True. I didn't follow Helena closely this year, outside of the high profile guys. But the OF is certainly crowded. I guess that Orimoloye (at AZL this year) or Harrison (injuries) starts in Helena. I'd prefer a Orimoloye, Trent, Harrison OF, however.

Brandon Diaz: Least likely player to repeat. OF is going to be crowded and he played very well after Harrison was demoted and Diaz took over CF duties.

Kodi: Could repeat, but really only due to age. I doubt it. He has nothing more to prove.

Williams: Could repeat due to the early injury and limited innings pitched. Again, doubtful, but possible. If anything, he starts at A and bumps at the draft.

Burkhalter: Peripherals were good, only ERA was "so-so". So this probably depends on more of a scouting approach if the staff feels he would benefit from more time at low A ball. Probably a candidate to avoid the piggy-back system if he does repeat. I'd guess a 50/50 chance to repeat.

Neuhaus: Didn't have a break-out season and could repeat, but I'm guessing he did enough to move on. Similar type (or better) players are coming up also and will need to play 2B/3B. Sink or swim time at A+.

 

I'm sure there are others that will repeat also. I was only focused on the prospect level guys and high round draft guys that haven't really distinguished themselves one way or the other yet.

[clancyphile]

Assuming Harrison is ready to go to start the season, that outfield is really crowded, and Belonis, who closed the season really well, hasn't even been mentioned yet.

 

They have the DH in low A.

 

:D

[TheCrew07]

Kodi: Could repeat, but really only due to age. I doubt it. He has nothing more to prove.

 

Well except that he can work inside the strike zone consistently...

[igor67]

The short version for the OF is that if you are not excelling right now you are probably going to get a suboptimal placement. On performance Clark put together a very strong case for starting in Low A, but I have to think given the difficulty they might hold him back a tad to give other guys a chance to see if they can show enough in Low A for a midseason jump. Players like Rubio who did some good things, but as it stands right now I'd have serious concerns that going to high A might wreck any chance he has of tapping that potential. Spring training suddenly looks pretty important for some of these guys.

[Jenkins5]

The short version for the OF is that if you are not excelling right now you are probably going to get a suboptimal placement. On performance Clark put together a very strong case for starting in Low A, but I have to think given the difficulty they might hold him back a tad to give other guys a chance to see if they can show enough in Low A for a midseason jump. Players like Rubio who did some good things, but as it stands right now I'd have serious concerns that going to high A might wreck any chance he has of tapping that potential. Spring training suddenly looks pretty important for some of these guys.

 

I really don't see Brewers holding back a top prospect who they have said can move fast back because other people aren't ready to promote. Essentially, they are going to put the top talent they feel can excel there. Can't say, well Trent is going to handle himself really well in Wisconsin but Elvis needs more ABs, let's just let Trent waste away in short season for couple months to see if Elvis can get going.

 

Spring training and off season will make or break who goes where. But overall if Clark is ready to excel, brewers aren't holding him back for anyone

[pogokat]

based on how they placed gatewood and harrison last year, I expect Trent and Demi in Wisconsin until the Helena season begins...unless there is no reason to bump them down. Trent didn't play like someone who needs to be in Rk. at all next year.

[And That]

I don't think Demi gets pushed to Wisconsin. The Brewers are already overloaded with outfielders there (Harrison, Clark, Collymore, Belonis), and Demi is still learning the game (though admittedly, Harrison was too this year).

[Jenkins5]

Harrison, made adjustments and was raking before he got hurt so if healthy he appears to be a lock.

 

Trent Clark is too advanced to repeat in Helena, I'd say he is a lock.

 

Stokes hit .270 and had an OPS of .400. He appears to have pretty advanced approach at plate. Don't see him repeating

 

Belonis & Collymore both have proven there way out of Helena as well. Maybe Collymore moves up to BC to start year?

 

Demi & Segovia should be in Helena to start.

 

Be interesting to see how that situation all shakes out. Collymore use to play 2b, Belonis was once a not great defensive SS, maybe he can learn 3b but won't bank on it.

[And That]

Collymore.

[igor67]

Given his strike zone control I have a hard time making an argument for putting Demi in the same boat as Harrison and Gatewood. He'd almost certainly be overmatched. When we had nothing it made some sense to see if those guys might pull off something spectacular, but with so many options Helena is a lot more sensible way to develop him.

In a somewhat different vein, I imagine that Clark can handle Wisconsin next year but 40 ABs of just over an .800 OPS is not a level of jaw dropping dominance that demands immediate promotion, especially if that might damage other players development. There have been plenty of draftees who have hit better for more ABs that took it on the chin at Low A. Blake Allemand for example. And yes Clark is a great talent and ultimately other guys get moved around to account for that, but potentially spending half the year in Rookie ball and finishing strong at Low A is still very rapid progress for next year. It's interesting and close enough to consider challenging him, but not a slam dunk by any means.

[TURBO]

 

But they have a potential for a high powered offense.

 

I sure hope so, this year's offense was a bore to watch typically...

[SRB]

Kodi: Could repeat, but really only due to age. I doubt it. He has nothing more to prove.

 

Well except that he can work inside the strike zone consistently...

 

No idea what you're talking about.

 

Making Medeiros repeat A ball would be foolish. Maybe if he struggles at A+, then ok. But start him at Brevard County and see what happens.

[TheCrew07]

No idea what you're talking about.

 

Except for having watched him pitch 10+ times and clearly stating my observations and opinions dozens times I'm sure I've been awful vague over the course of the season.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it one last time because I'm incredibly tired of repeating myself ad nauseum on this stuff but FIP is completely worthless, those who champion it rarely understand how it's calculated... it's a stat derived not out of necessity but as proof of a concept that is inadequately understood at best and horribly applied at worst. It has even less value when applied to MiLB pitchers as their baseline changes rapidly from year to year for example the Jorge Lopez of 2015 is a much different than inconsistent young man who pitched for the Rattlers in 2013.

 

If you've watched him pitch and would like to tell me where I've misread what I've watched and wrote about all season that's fine and I'd be happy to discuss Kodi from a professional growth standpoint. If you're going to blather on about rate stats and FIP then I have nothing else to say.

 

Regardless either you haven't put in the time to read what I've written or aren't able to form a coherent counter argument because "No idea what you're talking about. " is about as lame and unnecessary a comment at this point as possible.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Given his strike zone control I have a hard time making an argument for putting Demi in the same boat as Harrison and Gatewood. He'd almost certainly be overmatched. When we had nothing it made some sense to see if those guys might pull off something spectacular, but with so many options Helena is a lot more sensible way to develop him.

In a somewhat different vein, I imagine that Clark can handle Wisconsin next year but 40 ABs of just over an .800 OPS is not a level of jaw dropping dominance that demands immediate promotion, especially if that might damage other players development. There have been plenty of draftees who have hit better for more ABs that took it on the chin at Low A. Blake Allemand for example. And yes Clark is a great talent and ultimately other guys get moved around to account for that, but potentially spending half the year in Rookie ball and finishing strong at Low A is still very rapid progress for next year. It's interesting and close enough to consider challenging him, but not a slam dunk by any means.

 

I've been wrong before, but personally I'd be shocked if Clark didn't start the year in full-season ball. While the placements of Medeiros and Burkhalter was something of an anomaly (had a high school pitcher started the season after he was drafted in A ball for the Brewers since Gallardo?), the placement of Harrison and Gatewood really wasn't. Heck, Lawrie hadn't even played a minor league game from what I remember. Clark had the best walk to strikeout rate with the Arizona squad and then walked more than he struck out in his short time in Helena. A lot of the normal red flags that might exist with a guy like Demi aren't there with Clark. Does that guarantee he'll succeed? Of course not. But between Clark's play, the Brewers' history and the team's statements about him being a guy who could move fast through the organization, I just can't see him not starting the season off on a full-season roster if he is healthy.

[CheezWizHed]

No idea what you're talking about.

 

Except for having watched him pitch 10+ times and clearly stating my observations and opinions dozens times I'm sure I've been awful vague over the course of the season.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it one last time because I'm incredibly tired of repeating myself ad nauseum on this stuff but FIP is completely worthless, those who champion it rarely understand how it's calculated... it's a stat derived not out of necessity but as proof of a concept that is inadequately understood at best and horribly applied at worst. It has even less value when applied to MiLB pitchers as their baseline changes rapidly from year to year for example the Jorge Lopez of 2015 is a much different than inconsistent young man who pitched for the Rattlers in 2013.

 

If you've watched him pitch and would like to tell me where I've misread what I've watched and wrote about all season that's fine and I'd be happy to discuss Kodi from a professional growth standpoint. If you're going to blather on about rate stats and FIP then I have nothing else to say.

 

Regardless either you haven't put in the time to read what I've written or aren't able to form a coherent counter argument because "No idea what you're talking about. " is about as lame and unnecessary a comment at this point as possible.

 

Certainly, I have nothing first hand to rely on, so its reading other's (including yours) and looking at the rate stats to give me any idea. And its fun to play arm-chair GM, so ...

 

He obviously needs to work on his control, but I don't think that will hold him back. I'm sure the coaches have different objectives for the players to work on and develop. So perhaps something there might hold him back at A-ball....

 

Crew07, based on your observations, do you think they will hold him back or continue working on control at the A+ level?

 

BTW, someone mentioned about bumping an OFer to A+ and that was a pretty good observation. I hadn't thought of that, but a possibility.

[SRB]

No idea what you're talking about.

 

Except for having watched him pitch 10+ times and clearly stating my observations and opinions dozens times I'm sure I've been awful vague over the course of the season.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it one last time because I'm incredibly tired of repeating myself ad nauseum on this stuff but FIP is completely worthless, those who champion it rarely understand how it's calculated... it's a stat derived not out of necessity but as proof of a concept that is inadequately understood at best and horribly applied at worst. It has even less value when applied to MiLB pitchers as their baseline changes rapidly from year to year for example the Jorge Lopez of 2015 is a much different than inconsistent young man who pitched for the Rattlers in 2013.

 

If you've watched him pitch and would like to tell me where I've misread what I've watched and wrote about all season that's fine and I'd be happy to discuss Kodi from a professional growth standpoint. If you're going to blather on about rate stats and FIP then I have nothing else to say.

 

Regardless either you haven't put in the time to read what I've written or aren't able to form a coherent counter argument because "No idea what you're talking about. " is about as lame and unnecessary a comment at this point as possible.

 

Thanks for your rant about FIP, which I mentioned nowhere in my post.

 

I've read your posts, I think you have unrealistic/misguided expectations for a teenage SP in A ball. The Brewers left him there for a reason, and will very likely promote him to A+ for a reason, just like countless other top prospects who had high BB/9 rates at that age/level.

 

I don't think you actually have any interest in "discussing" Medeiros from a professional growth standpoint, but I'll leave it at that. Luckily, at the end of the day, the Brewers have an entire staff of professionals making these decisions so we will just have to wait and see what they do with him next season.

[Jenkins5]

I view all these Medeiros debates like politics, just have to have to find the middle. TheCrew will always be on the one extreme end of the spectrum. Kodi can throw 3 straight no hitters and the location/command of his pitches will still be nit picked. He will give credit to the filthiness of his stuff, but harp on him throwing it over controlling it. Perfectly understandable explanation. In his scouting mind, that is extremely important. All scouts see and look at different things. Doesn't make him right or wrong. The same goes to the good number of posters who are on the other complete end of the spectrum and absolutely drool over Medeiros. They focus on all the good, and then all the bad is cancelled out by age.

 

I agree with TheCrew about one major aspect of his game, that he is right now simply a thrower, not a pitcher. To me it is not so much an issue as of right now due to age, lack of experience, coaching and the amount of movement he does have takes time to harness. TheCrew is also right that as of right now, his stuff at AA or AAA would have his BB/9 going up even higher and/or him getting shelled. In A ball you can get away with simply throwing and letting the life of the ball do all the work. At the upper levels, they have much better eyes at the plate and are too advanced of hitters to not locate and harness your stuff.

 

On the other side of spectrum I do think he has overall had a real good season. Kid turned 19 this summer and more than held his own. I can see the promise that everyone is so excited about. I completely understand though he has to take at least a good Jorge Lopez step next year (Wisconsin to BC). That is what path you hope Kodi follows. I absolutely do not feel he warrants being held back at all. If there is a place for a pitcher to go to work on pitching over throwing, BC is the place to be. He can afford to make more mistakes working on his craft there. I think it is good to keep him, Devin, Ventura, Ponce together and think Leal is an excellent catcher to have working with him.

 

The only two benefits of holding him back are:

1) He can experience dominating. He goes to A+ right away he will most likely not come up and be lights out spectacular but be adjusting and learning. In Wisconsin, he is taking that ball opening day as their no piggy back Ace and is expected to make the leap from good/solid Midwest League pitcher to Frontline Midwest League pitcher.

 

2)Put him with that big next wave in order to help build a strong winning culture for these kids. The way it is looking right now, BC's offense is not going to have there pitchers in good positions to win too many games.

 

That said, I believe in always pushing and challenging your prospects. Be aggressive and see how they due,

[CheezWizHed]

Personally, I'd prefer if the Brewers are a bit more aggressive in their promotions. It was a bit surprising (and maybe eye opening) to get 21 and 22 year old players at AA and AAA from Baltimore and Houston. I don't have any real evidence that this is better, but I think that creating a challenging environment is better than letting them dominate lesser competition.

 

And unlike politics, none of us get to vote on whether Kodi moves up or not. So be nice in our discussions please. Its all our opinions and for fun. None of us make a living from MLB.