2016 Arby Guesses?

[Roderick]

So anyone want to venture how much Peralta, Smith and Segura will make in their first year of arby? Those are the only ones, right?

[JohnBriggs12]

Peralta: $3.9 million

 

Segura: $2.6 million

 

Smith: $1.8 million

[sveumrules]

Kintzler, Jimenez, Schafer, Thornburg & Dominguez are also listed as arbitration eligible on Cot's spreadsheet.

[monty57]

Those are the only ones, right?

 

Per Cot's, Thornberg, Schafer, and Matt Dominguez will also be first year arby eligible. Kintzler (if around, made $1.075M this year) and C. Jimenez ($575k) will be in year two arby with no one in year three. Note that Maldonado would be in his second arby year, but he's signed to a contract. He will be arby eligible in his third year in 2017.

 

I think Briggs' numbers are pretty good estimates. Thornberg should be right there with Smith, and Schafer and Dominguez shouldn't be very expensive if they're retained.

 

Looks like we have six guys (Braun, Lucroy, Rodriguez, Lind, Garza, Maldonado) under contract making $40.475M. Add in the arby guys (Peralta, Segura, Smith, Thornberg, Schafer, Jimenez) at around $12M and you have 12 guys at around $52.5M. Davis, Gennett, Nelson, Jeffress, Blazek, Perez, Jungmann, Knebel, Peterson, Santana, and anyone else from the minors are all league minimum.

 

We could very easily put together a roster around $60M next year, and even less if guys like Lind and Rodriguez are traded this offseason. It will be interesting to see how the Brewers operate this offseason.

[reillymcshane]

Peralta: $3.9 million

 

Segura: $2.6 million

 

Smith: $1.8 million

I think those are solid estimates. Peralta might be a tad high, but not much.

 

Obviously a nice (or naughty) September could changes things - especially Peralta and Segura.

[reillymcshane]

Those are the only ones, right?

 

Per Cot's, Thornberg, Schafer, and Matt Dominguez will also be first year arby eligible. Kintzler (if around, made $1.075M this year) and C. Jimenez ($575k) will be in year two arby with no one in year three. Note that Maldonado would be in his second arby year, but he's signed to a contract. He will be arby eligible in his third year in 2017.

 

I think Briggs' numbers are pretty good estimates. Thornberg should be right there with Smith, and Schafer and Dominguez shouldn't be very expensive if they're retained.

 

Looks like we have six guys (Braun, Lucroy, Rodriguez, Lind, Garza, Maldonado) under contract making $40.475M. Add in the arby guys (Peralta, Segura, Smith, Thornberg, Schafer, Jimenez) at around $12M and you have 12 guys at around $52.5M. Davis, Gennett, Nelson, Jeffress, Blazek, Perez, Jungmann, Knebel, Peterson, Santana, and anyone else from the minors are all league minimum.

 

We could very easily put together a roster around $60M next year, and even less if guys like Lind and Rodriguez are traded this offseason. It will be interesting to see how the Brewers operate this offseason.

 

Baseball Reference says Thornburg will be eligible in 2017 for the first time. He was at 1.146 years of service coming into 2015. Perhaps if he had been on the roster all year he would have made it. Just a guess. He doesn't seem to have accumulated more than 1.5 or so years of service time.

[JohnBriggs12]

Guys who aren't locks to make the team out of spring training have zero leverage so the arby situation really doesn't apply. Either they'll be non-tendered and sign elsewhere or agree to a contract just barely above minimum salary. If for instance Thornburg got $1.2 million arbitration award, it actually hurts his chances of making the team. Same would go with Schafer, who could well be removed from the 40 man after the season anyway. They've essentially got the same guy in Wren at AAA who'll make the minimum.

[JohnBriggs12]

Peralta: $3.9 million

 

Segura: $2.6 million

 

Smith: $1.8 million

I think those are solid estimates. Peralta might be a tad high, but not much.

 

Obviously a nice (or naughty) September could changes things - especially Peralta and Segura.

 

Estrada got $3.9 million so I actually think I might be low if anything with Peralta. Peralta's record of accomplishment to date has been at least on par with Estrada's through 2014.

[Outlander]

Thornburg and Dominguez for sure won't be eligible for arbitration probably not Schafer either.

[reillymcshane]

Peralta: $3.9 million

 

Segura: $2.6 million

 

Smith: $1.8 million

I think those are solid estimates. Peralta might be a tad high, but not much.

 

Obviously a nice (or naughty) September could changes things - especially Peralta and Segura.

 

Estrada got $3.9 million so I actually think I might be low if anything with Peralta. Peralta's record of accomplishment to date has been at least on par with Estrada's through 2014.

Arbitration isn't strictly performance based. It's heavily weighted toward service time as well as your previous salary. So you want to compare Wily to other 1st time eligible guys.

 

Last year Wade Miley ended up making $3.67M (as part of a three year contract). And Garrett Richards made $3.2M. Those guys probably fit into the same profile as Peralta does coming into his first year of arby. Miley averaged 200 IP over his previous three years, probably a little better ERA and no injuries.

[MrTPlush]

Segura might end up with a little less because the Brewers would hold a lot of leverage in my opinion. I wouldn't want an arby hearing if I played the way he has the last two years. All Segura has to his name is a couple months three years ago...probably would not look good. $2.4mil?

 

Peralta likely to be in that $3.5mil range. Could go half a million either way depending on the finish.

 

Will Smith should be in the $1.7mil range.

[Patrick425]

So then based on those projections and what I'm seeing on Cot's contracts, the total payroll before any trades and/or FA signings would be in the neighborhood of $55M to $60M, correct? Am I missing something? Seems like that would give them a decent amount to spend on FA's if they choose to got that route. Although, I wonder if they will will shoot for a payroll of around $100M again, or if they will "scale back" a bit next year.

[Outlander]

My guess is that they would need a lower budget as even the casual fan isn't expecting much next year. Attendance should drop, not drastically but perhaps in the 2.2-2.3 range.

[ewitkows]

If your not going to "go for it" they will probably shop Lind and Krod and if anyone will take him Garza. We could be in the 40 mil range next year.

[And That]

$20MM to spend? Jordan Zimmerman, here we come. He's from Wisconsin and he's under 30! (Until May.)

[1992casey]

As a few others have pointed out in other threads, with a relatively low payroll, the possibility of taking on a bad contract or two in order to bring back value in trades becomes an option.

[logan82]

As a few others have pointed out in other threads, with a relatively low payroll, the possibility of taking on a bad contract or two in order to bring back value in trades becomes an option.

It would be nice to see that kind of creative thinking from our front office.

[QuevedosTongue]

As a few others have pointed out in other threads, with a relatively low payroll, the possibility of taking on a bad contract or two in order to bring back value in trades becomes an option.

 

It would be nice to see that kind of creative thinking from our front office.

 

No kidding. I was really impressed by Atlanta when they used that to bring Touki Toussaint into the organization. My thought then echoes yours, that Melvin would never do that.

[MrTPlush]

As a few others have pointed out in other threads, with a relatively low payroll, the possibility of taking on a bad contract or two in order to bring back value in trades becomes an option.

 

It would be nice to see that kind of creative thinking from our front office.

 

No kidding. I was really impressed by Atlanta when they used that to bring Touki Toussaint into the organization. My thought then echoes yours, that Melvin would never do that.

 

Doug Melvin wouldn't be the main decision maker in such an idea. That really would depend on the owners willingness to drop millions on a prospect.

[JohnBriggs12]

The FA market is so flooded with starting pitching that they could easily fill out the back end of the rotation with a low cost veteran (preferably a lefty) type who could be dealt later or moved to the pen to make room for one of the young guys. Hopefully Garza will regain enough form that he's marketable too, but if not, I'd just eat the remainder of his deal just like the Cubs did with Jackson this year. That way they wouldn't have to start the year committed one young guy presumably Davies at the expense of a half dozen or more others who are all also close to the majors. Let those guys battle it out and then go with the best at midseason. I personally think Hader and Lopez (though there are other strong candidates) are the two most likely guys to join Nelson, Peralta and Jungmann in the 2017 rotation and neither is quite ready to start 2016 in Milwaukee.

[dlk9s]

A couple Beef 'n Cheddars and curly fries, probably. Keep it simple.