Arizona Fall League Thread

[LouisEly]

With the minor league season winding down, here's a stab at who I think will be in the AFL. Lots of candidates, hard to pick this year:

 

Locks:

Hellweg

Hader (only 85 IP so far this year)

Roache

 

Good bets:

Phillips (already has 555 PAs this year, might need a break)

Magnifico

Reed

Taylor

Weisenburger

 

Unsure:

Barrios (does Colombia participate in the Caribbean Confederation? If so, he's not eligible. If not, he's a lock.)

Houser (about same innings as last year, but will need to be added to the 40-man so might get Sept. callup)

Davies (same as Houser)

Strong (might get callup to audition him for 2016)

Nick Ramirez (would like to see him take a stab at OF to give him a better shot at being a utility/bench player)

Coulter (A-ball exception, but so many AA players that he might not be top six in priority)

 

Dark horses:

Houle

Clint Terry (pitched great at BC, but lost a lot of time to injury)

[hyerbro1]

Roache, Phillips, Reed, Taylor, Coulter

 

That's a lot of outfielders. I guess that's a good problem to have? Not sure how you prioritize that list.

 

How about Devin Williams as a dark horse candidate? Wang?

[clancyphile]

My six:

SS Orlando Arcia - Deserves a look there

OF Michael Reed - Let's see what he can do.

OF Victor Roache - Best power bat.

C Adam Weisenburger - The best catcher the Brewers have

LHP Josh Hader - Worth a longer look

LHP Brent Suter - Also a low IP factor, and doing well enough.

[DHonks]

clancy, Arcia isn't eligible. LouisEly has a nice list, including the Brewers' typical rehab/comeback guy in Hellweg.

[clancyphile]

clancy, Arcia isn't eligible. LouisEly has a nice list, including the Brewers' typical rehab/comeback guy in Hellweg.

 

Why isn't he eligible?

[LouisEly]

If a player is from a country that participates in the winter ball Caribbean Confederation, he isn't eligible. This is so that player can play winter ball in his home country.

 

I thought about Wang, but he's pitched >120 innings this season on top of not pitching much last year. I think he's at his limit. Probably a good bet for next year though.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hellweg a lock? Really?

 

You actually think the Brewers are going to invest more in a soon to be 27 year old pitcher who's shown nothing in A ball this year in a league for actual prospects? Hellweg isn't even on the radar any more is he? Hellweg is a lock but not for the AFL. He's a lock for the list of guys who'll be off the 40 man in a couple months.

 

Magnifico is close to a lock I imagine. Barrios too if he's eligible. Roache seems logical. My darkhorse candidate is Chris McFarland.

 

Devin Williams wouldn't shock me either.

[jerichoholicninja]

Hellweg a lock? Really?

 

You actually think the Brewers are going to invest more in a soon to be 27 year old pitcher who's shown nothing in A ball this year in a league for actual prospects? Hellweg isn't even on the radar any more is he? Hellweg is a lock but not for the AFL. He's a lock for the list of guys who'll be off the 40 man in a couple months.

 

I rarely agree with JB on anything but I agree with this. Hellweg is pretty much toast as a prospect and should be removed from the 40 man this offseason. Maybe another team will take a shot at him but I doubt it. And if he is claimed I wouldn't count it as a loss for the organization.

[CheeseheadInQC]

In order to fill out a roster, once teams get through their "preferred pick" among the position players, isn't it pretty position dependent? Given the lack of eligible infield prospects in the upper levels for the Brewers, Orf likely has a better-than-average chance at being one of the picks simply because the Brewers might have to supply an infielder.

[And That]

Hellweg is pretty much toast as a prospect and should be removed from the 40 man this offseason.

Highly doubt it. The results aren't there, but he's throwing in the upper 90's. You give an arm like that every single last chance you can. Sure he's a long shot to make any sort of impact in MLB, but it's a long shot worth taking considering all of the players coming off of the 40-man.

[jerichoholicninja]

Hellweg is pretty much toast as a prospect and should be removed from the 40 man this offseason.

Highly doubt it. The results aren't there, but he's throwing in the upper 90's. You give an arm like that every single last chance you can. Sure he's a long shot to make any sort of impact in MLB, but it's a long shot worth taking considering all of the players coming off of the 40-man.

 

He'll be 28 next year and can't find the strike zone. He's walked 6.5/9 in the minors and over 7/9 in the majors. I don't care how hard you throw, those numbers are terrible. It's entirely possible he could turn it around and give you a couple decent years but for every John Axford there are 100 Michael Olmsted's.

[LouisEly]

Hellweg a lock? Really?

Yes, really:

 

http://dairylandexpress.com/2015/08/13/brewers-johnny-hellweg-impresses-with-velocity-in-rehab-start/

 

With other guys running into innings limits, especially if Biloxi goes far in the playoffs, or being from winter ball countries, I think one of their best bets is to see if they can make something of that 97/98 mph fastball.

 

I don't recall anyone who has never been above low-A being assigned to the AFL before, and besides that Williams already is having his innings curtailed, so I wouldn't wager too much money on him.

 

A friendly bet - Hellweg vs. Williams?

[DHonks]

I agree Hellweg is a lock. They need a chance to evaluate him. Heck, it's the Bausher/Brian Wolfe move of sending the re-habbing old guy. People are forgetting that many teams don't send top pitching prospects.

 

I'll add Jed Bradley as well

[And That]

It's entirely possible he could turn it around

Which is exactly why there's going to keep him.

[Mass Haas]

Derek over at BrewCrewBall has the list and the early analysis.

 

This year the Brewers' prospects will be a part of the Surprise Saguaros along with prospects from the Royals, Rangers, Yankees, and Cardinals. The Brewers are sending a number of pitching and positional prospects. The pitchers being sent there are LHP Josh Hader and RHP's Jacob Barnes, Adrian Houser and Damien Magnifico. The position players are Yadiel Rivera (INF), Brett Phillips (OF), and Michael Reed (OF).

 

Click the link for more on the topic.

[Mass Haas]

If a player is from a country that participates in the winter ball Caribbean Confederation, he isn't eligible. This is so that player can play winter ball in his home country.

 

Yadiel Rivera is from Puerto Rico, would that make him AFL ineligible? Wonder if he can void that and attend if he wishes.

 

The same would apply to RHP Jorge Lopez, another Puerto Rico native, but as you see above, he was not named.

[Mass Haas]

Derek over at BrewCrewBall has the list and the early analysis.

 

This year the Brewers' prospects will be a part of the Surprise Saguaros along with prospects from the Royals, Rangers, Yankees, and Cardinals. The Brewers are sending a number of pitching and positional prospects. The pitchers being sent there are LHP Josh Hader and RHP's Jacob Barnes, Adrian Houser and Damien Magnifico. The position players are Yadiel Rivera (INF), Brett Phillips (OF), and Michael Reed (OF).

 

Of the AFL participants --

 

Already on the 40-man roster: IF Yadiel Rivera

 

Needs to be added to the 40-man this fall to be protected from Rule 5 draft: RHP's Jacob Barnes, Adrian Houser and Damien Magnifico, OF Michael Reed

 

Don't need to be added to the 40-man until fall 2016: LHP Josh Hader, OF Brett Phillips

 

That doesn't mean the four listed above for this fall will be added, but all but Barnes seem like definite candidates. Barnes' AFL showing could go a long way to help his case, which is exactly what happened for LHP Mike Strong last AFL season.

[markedman5]

[gregmag]

I hadn't noticed how good Barnes' K numbers have been. I guess it's easy to lose sight of a decent pitcher on that Biloxi roster. His ERA (3.52) and WHIP (1.381) aren't great, but his .376 BABIP probably inflates those numbers; FIP is 2.49.

 

I'm completely clueless about him. Can anyone give a quick account of what he throws and what he needs to show to make the roster?

[DHonks]

I'd imagine Phillips or Reed is our priority player, but both will play a lot

[Outlander]

Pretty good sign that it is a lock that Hellweg will be removed from the 40 man.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm not too thrilled with Hader and Houser being on that list. Both seem to be finishing the season strong, why not leave it at that? Do they really need more mileage on their arms?

[JohnBriggs12]

Pretty good sign that it is a lock that Hellweg will be removed from the 40 man.

 

Exactly. This isn't your 2013 Brewer farm system anymore where any guy who could throw hard was untouchable because frankly they didn't have much. There's no room for 27 year olds on a roster who have next to zero command. Whoever the new GM is won't have the incentive of trying to make a past trade look good either, one reason Hellweg has hung around as long as he has.

[Mass Haas]

Disciples of Uecker -- Nicholas with a fine write-up on the eight participants as the season kicks off this afternoon -- no live audio/video, only Gameday (the Surprise squad box score); we're reminded that infielder Nathan Orf was a late addition as an 8th participant, nice.

[LouisEly]

Hey Mass, the first link for DoU is actually a link to the MiLB box scores.