Braun or Lucroy?

[reillymcshane]

Braun moving to 1B is something no one really knows how it will work out until you try. Is his poor play at 3B relevant to the discussion? Yes, of course it is, but it's not the be-all-end-all deciding factor. Braun's an athletic guy, and he's managed two position moves in the OF pretty well. 1B is considered the 'easiest' position to the play, and Ryan may be mentally ready for the challenge compared to 2008. Ultimately, you never know until you try. Maybe he'll just click at the position.

 

Personally, I think the club is foolish not to try it if and when they have an opening there. However, it may be a no go from the start. Maybe Braun wants nothing to do with 1B. Or maybe he and the team is convinced he'll be a butcher extraordinaire. He's got to be ready and willing to do the move.

 

I'd also like to point out that if we want to move Braun to 1B, the sooner the better. We aren't going win next year. If the team deals Lind this offseason, it's the perfect time to move Ryan (or anyone else) to the spot. You can afford to experiment. If things don't work out, no harm other than we win 67 games instead of 68 or 69.

[FVBrewerFan]

First, how do we know we would be selling low on Lucroy? Right now, I'm sure there are teams who think he had an off year offensively and can/will bounce back. If you wait until next year, what if he has a similar year? Now his value really drops.

 

As for Braun, there is no reason to keep him and pay him tens of millions of dollars over the next (at least) the next 3 years for nothing. Then, by the time they're ready to compete again, Braun will be past his prime. Why not pocket all that money and use it to buy a FA a few years down the road when that player will have an impact?

 

I would trade him today for a Hader or Phillips type. Just one top prospect, that's it- along with the huge salary relief.

 

Bottom line, I don't see it as an either/or, I would try hard to trade both of them. Add 2-3 more Top 25 prospects, with one of those being a top 5 type. Lucroy and Braun simply don't fit into a 2018 or 2019 WS run, so why pay them until then?

[trwi7]

Brewers need a LH bat

 

We are not contending, we are rebuilding. As much as you don't want to hear that, we don't need any batter handedness. We need a ton more talent, preferably prospects or major leaguers with little service time. If we aren't getting that in trades, we shouldn't even bother.

[reillymcshane]

Lucroy and Braun simply don't fit into a 2018 or 2019 WS run, so why pay them until then?

Because having Braun and Luc could help us win 75 games next year instead of 70.

 

Okay, joke, but there's some people in the org who probably think we can be competitive (what does that mean is a good guess, but I'll say .500ish).

 

You can argue that the team could look something like this:

 

Lucroy: 15 HR, .290 BA

Lind: 25 HR, .285 BA

Scooter: 10 HR, .285 BA

Segura: 10 HR, .275 BA

3B - ???

Davis: 25 HR, .260 BA

Santana: 25 HR, .240 BA

Braun: 30 HR, .290

 

Jungman, Nelson, Peralta put up 3.50ish ERAs

Garza has a 3.80ish ERA

Davies produces a 4.00ish ERA

Bullpen pitches well

 

Obviously, you need a 3B, but is the rest of the production that outrageous to imagine? You produce an averagish rotation, a good bullpen, and little better than average offense - that's a .500ish team - maybe better. And the above players probably make no more than $65-70M. You could find a passable 3B, add some depth - is it that bad?

 

I don't advocate putting the above team into the field. I just don't believe all the good things you need to happen can happen. And defense would be pretty bad. But I can see ownership or whomever rolling the dice. I'd rather play for 2018 and be much better at that time than be averagish (at best) next year.

[MrTPlush]

We could be competitive. Go out and drop money on an ace, trade away some prospects for another major piece, and maybe another biggish FA addition. Sort of pull a White Sox type off season with the only difference being the additions actually working out.

 

Now I wouldn't pull off such moves...but it isn't like it has never been attempted before.

[bill hAll Star]

We could be competitive. Go out and drop money on an ace, trade away some prospects for another major piece, and maybe another biggish FA addition. Sort of pull a White Sox type off season with the only difference being the additions actually working out.

 

Now I wouldn't pull off such moves...but it isn't like it has never been attempted before.

 

There aren't too many aces out there in the Brewers' price range, right? I know you're not supporting it, but I guess it would have to be done via trade.

 

Zimmermann terrifies me. He seems to be a hot name discussed in bar discussions of Brewer fans for the "oh yeah, he'd come at a hometown discount, wouldn't he?" and I fear that his contract will be a little bit more expensive and only a little bit more productive than the Garza deal has been.

[FVBrewerFan]

Reilly, they could be competitive if all those guys reached the numbers you suggest. I think it's a stretch for some of those guys to reach those numbers, and almost impossible for ALL of them to do so- which is what it would take to be .500ish.

 

With that said, it wouldn't shock me. I'm not convinced Mark A is on board for a true rebuild, and the trade for Davies makes me nervous that he still wants to win now.

 

I think they wanted a SP capable of joining the rotation next year, when that shouldn't have mattered in the least. Maybe it was never offered, but I would much rather have a higher ceiling guy or two at A or A+. (D Williams/ Ponce types) for Parra rather than a "solid" #5 type of starter who is almost ready in Davies. Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it just feels like Mark A has not given up on 2016.

[reillymcshane]

With that said, it wouldn't shock me. I'm not convinced Mark A is on board for a true rebuild, and the trade for Davies makes me nervous that he still wants to win now.

 

I don't think the team has gone into a true rebuild mode. They specifically said they wanted guys who were close to contributing (such as Davies).

 

I think the team will bring out a lineup similar to what I posted above, and hope things go well (although I'm not sure if they would really give Santana the CF job). If the club falters, they'll perhaps look to deal Luc and Lind - maybe Segura - before the deadline. Braun might be tradeable as well. Depending on how the club does next year, they can start making moves (such as bringing up Arcia).

 

I can hear the pitch:

 

"Look, Mark, we have a decent offense if we stay healthy and if a few guys rebound. We'll rely on our young staff to mature and improve, hope Garza returns to form, and put together a nice bullpen. If things tank, we can look to deal next summer, just like we dealt Parra and Gomez. So why bail on 2016 now when we can just wait for half a season and see how we are doing? With some luck, we'll be in the wildcard race."

 

The big downfall to waiting on the veterans such as Braun, Luc and Lind is that injuries or poor performance can ruin their value - and you blow the chance to get some quality young guys in the process.

 

I just think it's pretty optimistic to think any incarnation of a 2016 Brewers team is going to be playoff caliber - or even competitive.

[logan82]

The big downfall to waiting on the veterans such as Braun, Luc and Lind is that injuries or poor performance can ruin their value - and you blow the chance to get some quality young guys in the process.

Like what happened with Ramirez and Lohse.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

The problem is, they could be competitive for half a season. Closer to the 2014 season. Some guys have a hot 1st half, elevate their record, and there's your fool's gold.

 

Unlike some, I don't want them to be horrible again next year just to get a another top 5 draft pick. I would love for them to win, say 77-78 games. That would tell me the young starters performed very well, and at least a couple of the young position players really hit well (Santana, Davis, Scooter, Segura, etc.)

 

To me, that's the best of both worlds. The team already starts improving next year, while still adding more prospects for Lind, Lucroy, maybe Braun, KRod, etc.

[MrTPlush]

 

The problem is, they could be competitive for half a season. Closer to the 2014 season. Some guys have a hot 1st half, elevate their record, and there's your fool's gold.

 

Unlike some, I don't want them to be horrible again next year just to get a another top 5 draft pick. I would love for them to win, say 77-78 games. That would tell me the young starters performed very well, and at least a couple of the young position players really hit well (Santana, Davis, Scooter, Segura, etc.)

 

To me, that's the best of both worlds. The team already starts improving next year, while still adding more prospects for Lind, Lucroy, maybe Braun, KRod, etc.

 

Exactly. Too many people hope for a top 5 pick and don't think about what must happen for that to come to fruition.

[paul253]

We realize what must happen to get that pick and I'd much much rather that happen then to have another 3-4 game under .500 team. At least it gives me something to look forward too. I don't look forward to a team that finishes with the 13th worst record. Additionally the reward for such a terrible season is much greater then the reward for a below average team. I'll be more excited about the franchise if Lind and Lucroy are traded in the offseason then if we sign a FA third baseman.

 

We all want to win. But I want a team that wins consistently. While 2011 was a lot of fun to watch I get frustrated with having a good team no more than once or twice a decade. Getting atop five pick and a prospect like Groom Pint or Puk will go a long way in getting us there and getting us there quicker and more consistently.

[tmwiese55]

We realize what must happen to get that pick and I'd much much rather that happen then to have another 3-4 game under .500 team. At least it gives me something to look forward too. I don't look forward to a team that finishes with the 13th worst record. Additionally the reward for such a terrible season is much greater then the reward for a below average team. I'll be more excited about the franchise if Lind and Lucroy are traded in the offseason then if we sign a FA third baseman.

 

We all want to win. But I want a team that wins consistently. While 2011 was a lot of fun to watch I get frustrated with having a good team no more than once or twice a decade. Getting atop five pick and a prospect like Groom Pint or Puk will go a long way in getting us there and getting us there quicker and more consistently.

 

I think you missed the main point. For the top 5 to happen that means your 3 young starters all flopped and none of the young hitters did anything. Thus making the future very bleak. Future looks pretty good if you win 74-77 games, 3-4 of the young pitchers do well. Santana does well, Arcia comes up and does well, etc. Lucroy, K-rod, Lind do well and fetch good prospects.

[tmwiese55]

Look, Mark, we have a decent offense if we stay healthy and if a few guys rebound. We'll rely on our young staff to mature and improve, hope Garza returns to form, and put together a nice bullpen. If things tank, we can look to deal next summer, just like we dealt Parra and Gomez. So why bail on 2016 now when we can just wait for half a season and see how we are doing? With some luck, we'll be in the wildcard race."

 

And to this, I totally get how one can make that argument. And if this was a few years back with brutal teams Pitt, Houston, Chi, and mediocre Cin in our division I would probably say yea, why not at least try. But there's no reason to think Chi, Stl, and Pit aren't going to be very good again next year. Maybe Pit will come back to earth a bit but should still at least be in WC contention and above .500. Now's not the time, load up for 2017 and beyond.

[MNBrew]

^^That's quite sound thinking -- both quote and response. However, so also is this:

 

Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and the Brewers have all had recent years when they've been rather highly regarded, either going into the season or due to their play during the 1st half (or so), only to have the bottom totally fall out in a way few could foresee when things were going well (whether in reality as the season progressed or after a seemingly stellar winter of player moves). . . . Heck, even this winter, so many "experts"/cynics (especially on this board) saw the Brewers as being far worse than Cincinnati and look at how that's turning out.

 

The choice between trading more proven assets (Lind, etc.) over the winter vs. holding our cards for a while until possibly next year's deadline indeed CAN backfire, most absolutely! Let's also concede, however, that EITHER side of that choice has an equal chance at backfiring -- either way, it amounts to a calculated risk.

 

My points are these: 1) The grass isn't always greener elsewhere (well, maybe except St. Louis -- most annoyingly, too!), but it's sure true on BF.net and similar boards that familiarity very quickly can breed strong forms of cynicism, mistrust, and contempt for our own team, its players, and even in some cases its prospects, especially compared to other teams and what comprise their organizations. 2) I think the worst thing we fans can do is give up all hope for next year mainly based on the assumption that the Brewers have no chance next year or shortly beyond simply because other teams in our division are currently good or trending upward. 3) The Brewers need to worry about making the right building/developmental decisions, period, not basing those decisions or their approach to them on what other teams in the division may or may not do.

[clancyphile]

I think that 2016 has to be the year of evaluating young talent as much as possible.

 

The Brewers have some clear cornerstones: Braun and Lucroy. If Lucroy will accept an extension, great. If not, try to get what you can for him.

 

The real trade assets are: Khris Davis, Matt Garza, Adam Lind, and K-Rod.

 

Scooter Gennett and Jean Segura are somewhat lesser assets... or a decent 2B platoon (Gennett vs. RHP, Segura vs. LHP) in 2017.

 

My thinking for 2016 is that the Brewers need to find out which young/cheap OFs can do what, and the same goes for the starters.

 

For me, this is the ideal opening day 2016 lineup:

cf: Michael Reed

2b: Scooter Gennett

3b: Ryan Braun

1b: Adam Lind

c: Jon Lucroy

rf: Domingo Santana

lf: Victor Roache

ss: Jean Segura

pitcher

 

The ideal rotation:

Jungmann, Peralta, Nelson, Suter, Thornburg/Cravy/Wagner

[paul253]

Clancy the team can still be very bad in 2016 while guys like Peralta Nelson and Jungmann have good years. If we trade any combo of Lind Lucroy and Braun we could have a historically bad offense. So the pitchers could all finish with ERAs under 4 but just have bad win-loss records. We don't have to win 74 games in order for them to have good years

[jackailius]

I just can't see braun at 3rd. I don't know if i even care to have him at 1st to be honest. I am more on the side of getting rid of Braun at this point. I just don't know how much I care for his attitude and with the young guys who you really want a leader to get them fired up I don't think he is that guy.

 

I also wouldn't put the pair of Lucroy and Braun together in a trade becuase I don't think that any team has the prospects to get that done unless the Dodgers give us Seager and Urius but I don't see that happening. IF that were possible I would be really excited for what we look like in a couple years.

 

I do agree we should sell on Davis this offseason as well as KRod and Lind if we can get decent value back. I would also be happy to get a decent package back on Segura. I would like to get out from Garza's contract but that isn't going to happen and would be a tremendous sell low.

 

For me, this is the ideal opening day 2016 lineup:

cf: Michael Reed

2b: Scooter Gennett

3b: Perez/Rogers

1b: Clark/Rogers/Ramirez/YuniB

c: Jon Lucroy

rf: Domingo Santana

lf: Victor Roache

ss: Sardinez/Rivera

pitcher

 

The ideal rotation:

Jungmann, Peralta, Nelson, , Davies, Suter/Thornburg/Cravy/Wagner

 

It all depends of course on what they would get back in trade too. If they were to get back Seager and Urius for Braun Lucroy I would be happy having Maldinado try as the every day guy and move him down the order. If that were the case we honestly could make a splash with a big arm ace and be on the lookout for a 1st basemen if we don't find one in the trades from Krod, Segura, Davis, Lind. 2016 could be rough but 2017 could actually be really good with several on the team having a year in and as long as there is a good shift in leadership in the clubhouse.

Speculating you could be looking at a 2017 that could look like this:

 

CF Phillips

RF Santana

LF Roache

1b ? Hopefully an above average 1b

2b Gennett

SS Arcia

3B Seager

C Maldinado

 

SP

Price or Cuetto

Nelson

Urius

Peralta

Jungman/Davies

 

Bench

OF Reed

IF Rogers/Sardinez/Rivera

C Centeno or grizzled vet type

 

BP

Knebel, Thornberg, Smith, Goforth, Jeffress, Strong, Cravy

 

I think it is a bit of a pipe dream to imagine the trade with the Dodgers, especially since they are flush with outfielders though but i can dream about it as I watch them bumble around this year.

[tmwiese55]

Cueto and Price ar FA this year.

 

Dodgers have a young all star C they got back for Matt Kemp. [sarcasm]Although, he was in the same scandal as Braun so maybe they'll kick him off the team. Maybe he has the same negative attitude that apparently Braun has. You could say to give him back for us but then what's the point, flipping one PED cancer for another.[/sarcasm]

[clancyphile]

Clancy the team can still be very bad in 2016 while guys like Peralta Nelson and Jungmann have good years. If we trade any combo of Lind Lucroy and Braun we could have a historically bad offense. So the pitchers could all finish with ERAs under 4 but just have bad win-loss records. We don't have to win 74 games in order for them to have good years

 

I am well aware that barring some serious capture of lightning in a bottle, 2016 is gonna stink for Brewers fans. I just want to make the MOST of that year. To me, that means finding out which of the outfield and rotation prospects can hack it. What's there to lose by giving Brent Suter a shot at the major league rotation after the dominating year he's had in AA and AAA?

 

I don't care if the final record is worse than the 56-106 record posted by the 2002 Brewers. I think the Brewers need to see which young players at AAA/AA can contribute.

[bill hAll Star]

Cueto and Price ar FA this year.

 

Dodgers have a young all star C they got back for Matt Kemp. [sarcasm]Although, he was in the same scandal as Braun so maybe they'll kick him off the team. Maybe he has the same negative attitude that apparently Braun has. You could say to give him back for us but then what's the point, flipping one PED cancer for another.[/sarcasm]

 

This response is only partially related to your post, but I would love the Brewers to do something like target undervalued players like Grandal. The Padres thought they were upgrading by getting Derek Norris (stats propped up by platoon advantage in Oakland) after jettisoning Grandal (they never looked at his splits, apparently). Of course, while Norris is a good defensive catcher, the stats this year have shown just how much they didn't understand the situation on the offensive side. This is what the Brewers need to do over the next few years.

 

I'd love to see a young GM who sees stuff like that to target.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I was just getting at that there has really been no reports or knowledge of Braun being any kind of problem in the clubhouse. If anything watching the games it seems the opposite. Pre-scandal it seemed he got along with everyone as evidenced by most every teammate coming out in support of him through it all. Then after the scandal there has been nothing negative known. Yet he's labeled a bad attitude guy here.

 

You're right bill hall, that was a shrewd trade by them to dump a rapidly declining expensive player for a young player like Grandal that they'll have for many years on the cheap. I don't know what else was all included in that specific deal but at least this part was solid. Unless of course Grandal is automatically a bad guy because he took a little testosterone. Too bad LAD has him though or a Braun/Luc package would be a great fit for them. Hopefully we can find a future 3B and future C from the upcoming Lind/Lucroy/Davis trades, not saying you have to target those spots but they're the two most clear spots in the minors right now for us, would be nice if those trades brought back some AA level guys at those positions who might get up to AAA next year and to the bigs in 2017, then of course more pitching. And as of now it wouldn't make sense to get anymore OFs until you see what all these guys do.

[JohnBriggs12]

Meanwhile Lucroy after stumbling through first 3/4 of the year suddenly has found his stroke.

[markedman5]

CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that Jonathan Lucroy is "seen as a possibility to be moved" by the Brewers via trade this winter.

Milwaukee might be poised to rebuild over the offseason with new general manager David Stearns in place. One GM told Heyman that the Brewers "may have waited a year too long" to trade Lucroy after he followed up an MVP-caliber 2014 season with a disappointing, injury-plagued 2015 campaign. However, his contract is very reasonable and there would surely be some clubs willing to bet on a bounce-back should the Brewers indeed make him available.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Lucroy did bounce back. He had an .808 OPS in the 2nd half. Higher than his career OPS of .770, and just .030 below his "MVP caliber" season of 2014 OPS of .837