Braun or Lucroy?

[jackailius]

I know there is a lot of great debate and reasoning about trading Lucroy. While I agree with many of them and I believe that Lucroy would bring back a huge bounty and being a catcher is the most grueling position on the diamond putting his injury risk and overall level of play likely to deteriorate at a faster rate, I am starting to lean towards a situation where we extend Lucroy and trade Braun instead. I think if we could have one player or the other for the next 6 years, I think Lucroy would be who I would want on the field to help lead our teams youth movement. Looking at it from age and injury history, I think I would rather take my chances on Lucroy having better value from ages 30-35 as apposed to Braun ages 32-37.

 

My thought would be putting Braun and possibly another piece together for Sean Newcomb and Kyle Kubitza or Kaleb Kowart. We rewrite Lucroys deal for $12 to $15M a year for the next 5 or 6 years. I would love to see Lucroy be our primary receiver working Nelson, Newcomb, Davies, Jungmann, Hader, Lopez, Wagner, Williams etc. I just see him as being a much more valuable piece than Braun. I don't really even care if he never reaches the offense he had last year. If he can add defensive value at a rate of 3/4 of what he has over the past few years for the next 6 I would be happy.

 

For Braun, I know there is no definites with prospects but I think over the next 6 years between Phillips, Reed, Santana, Taylor, Coulter, Harrison and possibly even Gatewood or Lara depending on how they progress in the infield we will have a fairly good chance of having a replacement level outfield all the way across that may produce as well if not better than what we have had for the past several years. I also am not really sold on throwing Santana or Braun to first either. I'd much prefer to not risk lowering the defense across the infield whatsoever with our groundball pitching philosophy. I also don't know if I trust Braun to produce at an elite level from ages 35-37 and I believe he will produce a lower overall value than Lucroy from ages 33-35.

 

What do you think? Am I crazy?

[adambr2]

Why or? I think most are on board with trading Braun if a great haul is to be had.

 

I'd still trade Lucroy. I wouldn't extend him. Even if he sticks at catcher well into his 30's, I don't see him being as productive as we've come to expect. If he ends up at 1st like many speculate, he'd have very poor value as a first baseman already.

 

Also, in almost every case you can't just tear up and re-do an MLB contract, and even if we could we would never just wipe out the last 3 years of an extremely team friendly contract to give him $12 to $15M a year.

 

I will say that with Lucroy's value quite a bit lower than last year, it's probably not the right time to move him now though.

[pacopete4]

I'd put my money on Brauns offense holding up over Lucroys defense. Not only that but Lucroy has been bad at the plate this year. trade him while there's some that still feel he's really good.

[MNBrew]

I know the spirit of most discussions on this board favors "or" or "and" with respect to trading Braun/Lucroy. I don't favor trading either, and it's not mere sentimentalism or blind whatever-ism.

 

At minimum, trading Lucroy without selling low and without a suitable/respectable replacement makes no sense whatsoever.

 

Sure, Braun's contract the next 5 years is WAY large. But that doesn't mean we HAVE TO trade him or are best off doing so. There certainly aren't many on the current team now headed toward 8-figure contracts right away -- and with many strong young players coming, there won't be for a while. Lucroy is one who deservedly should be headed that way, but he may be the only one over the next couple years. That actually allows the Brewers to manage the rest of the roster reasonably easily, Braun's $20M-ish notwithstanding.

 

I think it's a foregone conclusion with many here that Braun eventually ends up at 1B. Keep in mind, though, that it's neither the Brewers nor the media fueling that, just spiraling group-think that feeds off itself in forums like this. . . . I understand folks' logic. But I don't agree with it -- at least not now. Braun's still a solid OF and there's no need for him to move to 1B. If that's where he eventually ends up, I'm fine with it. I'd hope it be the result of the situation forcing the inevitable outcome. If that's the case, great. But it's not the case yet.

[adambr2]

I know the spirit of most discussions on this board favors "or" or "and" with respect to trading Braun/Lucroy. I don't favor trading either, and it's not mere sentimentalism or blind whatever-ism.

 

At minimum, trading Lucroy without selling low and without a suitable/respectable replacement makes no sense whatsoever.

 

Sure, Braun's contract the next 5 years is WAY large. But that doesn't mean we HAVE TO trade him or are best off doing so. There certainly aren't many on the current team now headed toward 8-figure contracts right away -- and with many strong young players coming, there won't be for a while. Lucroy is one who deservedly should be headed that way, but he may be the only one over the next couple years. That actually allows the Brewers to manage the rest of the roster reasonably easily, Braun's $20M-ish notwithstanding.

 

I think it's a foregone conclusion with many here that Braun eventually ends up at 1B. Keep in mind, though, that it's neither the Brewers nor the media fueling that, just spiraling group-think that feeds off itself in forums like this. . . . I understand folks' logic. But I don't agree with it -- at least not now. Braun's still a solid OF and there's no need for him to move to 1B. If that's where he eventually ends up, I'm fine with it. I'd hope it be the result of the situation forcing the inevitable outcome. If that's the case, great. But it's not the case yet.

 

I agree trading Lucroy with lower value is not desirable, but I disagree that you can't trade him without having a suitable or respectable replacement. That's the beauty of rebuilding, you don't need a respectable replacement, you just need a body. There are plenty of bodies to be had. You can worry about suitable or respectable later. It doesn't need to prevent you from moving a guy now.

 

I would also strongly speculate that the fact that the Brewers weren't interested in an extension for Lucroy after his most recent monster season is a pretty strong indication that they are in fact not headed that way with him (toward an extension ).

[paul253]

People would still give us a ton for Lucroy. I don't think we'd necessarily be selling low. If he has another poor season next year however....

 

I've never really understood the "it makes no sense to trade Lucroy" argument. If you were planning on extending him that'd be one thing. But I don't think they are, or should be, planning on doing that. He's getting up there in age and if you move him to first his offense I'd imagine would be below average offensively. He is precisely the kind of player we need to move away from. We've gotten his best years from him now trade him while you can still get something for him. I could a package similar to the Gomez package for him.

 

Braun. I'd trade him too if the package was good enough. I think we'd be best to move him to first base after this season where he can mostly focus on offense and staying healthy. I'm just not sure his contract will allow for a good enough offer for him.

[logan82]

How does moving Braun to a new position where he will be involved with every ground ball help him mostly focus on offense?

[paul253]

By "involved in every ground ball" are you referring to catching it when somebody throws it to him?

[adambr2]

By "involved in every ground ball" are you referring to catching it when somebody throws it to him?

 

Well yes, that and dig out low throws, stretch to try to save high or wide throws, learn when to cover and when to field and count on the pitcher to cover, learn to field much better than he did at 3rd, hold on runners, know when to go right to 2nd and wait for a relay, etc.

 

We widely assume that Braun will end up at 1st, but we can't just assume good defense for a guy who has not played a single inning at any level in his professional career at 1st. He could make the transition, or he might be a butcher.

[paul253]

Every position has its own unique set of skills but outside of maybe corner outfield first base is clearly the easiest to pick up. I understand that you still have to practice and learn new stuff but let's not act like it is as difficult to pick up as shortstop, catcher third base or center field are. There is a reason that the bigger, slower, less agile guys usually end up there.

[logan82]

Braun was a butcher at 3B and it wasn't just the throws. It was actually fielding balls. Given that and his yearly core muscle issues I don't see how moving him to 1B is a good idea. There is no reason to move him out of the outfield. Move someone else.

[paul253]

Who? Davis has already tried apparently and that didn't work. Coulter and Santana both supposedly have fantastic throwing arms, which would be wasted at 1B. Lucroy would be below average there offensively. Who is a better option than Braun?

[3and2Fastball]

Braun is still an elite hitter vs LHP (.326/.411/.587/.998 this year)

 

He is struggling increasingly vs RHP

 

You could maximize his value by having him always start vs LHP and sit vs the best RHP. That will also likely increase his longevity/durability as he ages. Yes he'd have more value if he could play 1B but that seems fairly unlikely.

[paul253]

I'll drop it after this. I just don't see a better candidate to move to first. I'd be fine with Coulter moving but given that he is still probably two years out that doesn't do anything to help the Davis/Braun/Santana/Reed/Phillips/Taylor logjam.

[logan82]

It's not a logjam yet.

[paul253]

And maybe we should have a plan for when it becomes one because it's going to be soon. Michael Reed could very well be ready by opening day and Phillips isn't far behind. Why not make the move this offseason when Braun has all winter to prepare and all spring to practice? If none of the young guys wins the position then put someone else there for a few months while Reed Taylor and Phillips head to AAA.

 

Honestly why are you so against moving Braun? I asked you who you thought would be a better option and you didn't answer. I get it. Braun has trouble with ground balls. But fielding ground balls isn't nearly as big an issue at first as it is at third. For one at first base you won't see as many ground balls. Also a bobble a third base usually allows someone to get on. A bobble at first and you usually still have time to get an out. I'm not claiming he's going to be a gold glover at first. But if Prince Fielder can handle the position I'm confident Braun can as well.

[logan82]

Braun should never play in the infield ever again. He is a suck infielder in every aspect. I have made my view on this clear several times.

[paul253]

Ok well I apologize. We'll agree to disagree. I think moving Braun to first base is the common sense move that would most benefit the franchise long term and I don't think his defense at third should prevent him from playing first. As I recall Corey hart was a butcher at third when he tried it and he did more than ok at first. Just because they are both infield positions doesn't mean that if you can't play one you can't play the other.

[MNBrew]

(Note that I'm naming 4 possible in-house 1B solutions who are essentially career 1Bs. As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I believe Braun doesn't belong at 1B....)

 

Once 1B is no longer manned by Adam Lind (who I'm in no hurry to get rid of for some of the very valid reasons brought out in the discussion above re: other players at 1B), and if Jason Rogers, Matt Clark, and Nick Ramirez aren't proving to be legit replacements, then I'm willing to bet one of two things will happen:

 

1. If enough super-good bats are on the team that the Brewers deem moving a non-1B to 1B is the best option for the team, then they'll also have sufficient grounds for judging by then who that best option would be. Anything short of that is trying to look into a crystal ball.

 

-OR-

 

2. The next long-term-ish 1B is someone not currently a member of the Brewers organization (read: trade or FA).

 

(Also, I believe I remember the story being that Khris Davis told the Brewers he'd tried 1B and it didn't go well. I seem to recall that it may well have been a few years before he saw the bigs, which would indicate A-ball or lower. The other detail that sticks in my head on that topic is that the Brewers approached Davis about it, so whenever he tried 1B, it was long enough ago and inconsequential enough that the organization didn't even know about it.)

[DuWayne Steurer]

I really wish we'd stop playing "shuffle the deck chairs" with bad defenders. We have had bad defense for like.....forever, and just sticking guys wherever doesn't work.

 

Braun was a historically bad infielder and just saying "first base isn't that hard" is a misnomer. Braun was (again) historically bad at 3rd base. Putting him in the infield could potentially negate a good portion of his positive offensive value, and at this stage of the game, he's not such an elite offensive talent that losing some of that value is worth the net loss.

[clancyphile]

I really wish we'd stop playing "shuffle the deck chairs" with bad defenders. We have had bad defense for like.....forever, and just sticking guys wherever doesn't work.

 

Braun was a historically bad infielder and just saying "first base isn't that hard" is a misnomer. Braun was (again) historically bad at 3rd base. Putting him in the infield could potentially negate a good portion of his positive offensive value, and at this stage of the game, he's not such an elite offensive talent that losing some of that value is worth the net loss.

 

I'm not ready to say he's not elite.

 

Normally over his career, his OPS at Miller Park is 27 points HIGHER than his OPS on the road.

 

But this year, his Miller Park OPS is 175 points LOWER than his OPS on the road.

 

Aside from April, he's been more the Braun Brewers fans have known (the .859 OPS is close to the OPS figure from 2010, and Braun proceeded to lead the league in OPS the next two years) than the 2014 version. They've had to figure out how to get his swing back in shape, and to deal with the treatment his thumb needs. Come 2016-2020, they will have a better handle on the thumb injury, and Braun's swing will be better.

 

Furthermore, Braun and Lucroy are probably the two veterans the team could least afford to lose. Lucroy's going to be needed to get the most out of the young pitchers coming up. Braun's probably the closest thing the Brewers have to a face of the franchise. And if Hernan Perez, Sardinas, Jason Rogers, and Segura flop offensively, there's gonna be a hole at third base. If Braun does revert to 2007-2012 form, then stick him at third until Lara, Gatewood, or someone else is ready for the majors.

[JohnBriggs12]

Braun and his remaining $100 million or so to Red Sox for Sandoval and his remaining $75 million?

 

Brewers need a LH bat, and a corner IF and to open an OF spot. Sandoval's numbers down but as a LH bat, but he hits RHP well and has always hit well in Miller Park.

[WV Brew]

Braun is at 125 OPS+ versus 90 for Sandoval.

Braun is at 2.8 WAR versus -0.3 for Sandoval.

Baseball wise it's probably a bad deal for the Brewers but it would free up some money and provide a position of need. I wonder if Sandoval has no trade clauses though. He probably wouldn't want to come to the Brewers.

[clancyphile]

Braun is at 125 OPS+ versus 90 for Sandoval.

Braun is at 2.8 WAR versus -0.3 for Sandoval.

Baseball wise it's probably a bad deal for the Brewers but it would free up some money and provide a position of need. I wonder if Sandoval has no trade clauses though. He probably wouldn't want to come to the Brewers.

 

That nails down why the trade idea is stupid. I'd rather have the 35 points of OPS+ at 3B from a guy who wants to be here.

[JohnBriggs12]

Braun is at 125 OPS+ versus 90 for Sandoval.

Braun is at 2.8 WAR versus -0.3 for Sandoval.

Baseball wise it's probably a bad deal for the Brewers but it would free up some money and provide a position of need. I wonder if Sandoval has no trade clauses though. He probably wouldn't want to come to the Brewers.

 

That nails down why the trade idea is stupid. I'd rather have the 35 points of OPS+ at 3B from a guy who wants to be here.

 

 

Sandoval's 2015 OPS+ vs. RHP is 123. He's been awful as a right handed hitter but the Brewers have Perez playing vs. LHP already. I agree he's lesser of a hitter than Braun overall, but that's not where you compare him anyway. The question is whether the presumed added production of a Sandoval/Perez platoon at 3B offset a drop off from Braun to Santana in RF? If it's basically a wash and you save approximately $25 million over 5 years it's not a bad deal. Plus you balance out a very RH dominant lineup, which makes dealing Lind more of a possibility.

 

The fact is you aren't going to get tremendous value for Braun with his past and contract. The Brewers have a glut of RH hitting corner OF and a shortage of LH bats and corner IF. That's what prompted the idea.