Wily Peralta: Why is he struggling?

[FVBrewerFan]

Anyone have a theory why Peralta is struggling this year after a really solid season in 2014? I know he had an injury, but he has struggled all season. Is his velocity down? Not locating?

[reillymcshane]

Anyone have a theory why Peralta is struggling this year after a really solid season in 2014? I know he had an injury, but he has struggled all season. Is his velocity down? Not locating?

Wily's fastball velocity is down a bit over 1 mph, while his slider is down almost 3 mph. His change up velocity is down 1 mph as well.

 

Obviously, the Ks are really down for Wily - from 7 per game to just over 5. I'm not sure if the velocity drop is behind this. His walk and HR rates aren't too different than last year. I'm sure someone can read into the numbers better than myself, but it would be interesting to see where he's pitching, how many balls/strikes he's throwing - and if there's anything to glean from that info.

 

Ultimately, he just hasn't looked sharp this year - even before the injury.

 

I'd love to hear what others have to say.

[FVBrewerFan]

Thanks Reilly, yea it didn't seem like his velo was down much. I can't believe 1 MPH on his FB is the reason for his struggles. If I had to guess, he either is not locating his FB, or he can't throw secondary pitches for strikes enough. Like you said, interested to see what others have to say.

[bill hAll Star]

1 MPH on the fastball can be a pretty big deal and a sign of worse things to come. He got a bit "lucky" in 2014 and posted a mid 3s ERA, when it should have been low 4s, but still, he had a better year than this year's mid 4s ERA for sure (the peripherals all line up.

 

His slider is down 3 MPH and probably not nearly as effective. K% on that pitch is way down due to righties not being as worried about that pitch.

 

He cannot get lefties out so he was probably never going to be a great pitcher unless he figured that out. Now that his slider and fastball are down, his slider isn't dominating righties and his fastball (4-seamer) is getting pummeled by hitters. Even righties have a respectable high-.700s OPS, which were what he needed to feast on to be a good pitcher.

[Bombers]

I am not sure but it is a tough year for him. His extra base hits are way up. Last year 6.3% of all plate appearances were an extra base hit. Career average is 6.5. This year is 9.6%. SO % is down 18% to 13% and his HR's are up.

 

His strike % is the same 62.3 to 61.9% from last year to this year. Just seems like when he is hit, he is getting hit hard. He does have 4 more home starts this year (9) vs road (5) ...

[FVBrewerFan]

So basically hitters are just sitting on the FB? Over-simplifying it I know, but that's what it sounds like.

[yfinn6]

I wonder if his slider isn't as effective if it wouldn't be a good idea to try to throw a curveball more often, especially to righties. I spiked curveball to give hitters something else to see might offset some of the drop in velocity in other pitches. I'd love to see him with a better changeup (that being one of my favorite pitches).

 

Wily just isn't as polished of a pitcher at this point. He has some interesting stuff, but he can't locate his fastball within the zone and he's also a bit of a headcase on the mound. He was a little better at not blowing up last year but I've seen it again this year.

[3and2Fastball]

I think some of Peralta's struggles have to do with him (how healthy he is & maybe even how overrated he might be) and some of his struggles have to do with who is coaching him.

[LouisEly]

Slider effectiveness doesn't have as much to do with velocity, as it is possible to overthrow it and have it not break (like when Broxton was throwing it 91/92). Slider has to do with sharp break and locating it for strikes, or sliding out of the strike zone at the last second. Last night it seemed like his strike % was low. So I believe it is either sitting on pitches, or throwing a lot of pitches in an inning.

 

Peralta, Lohse, Garza, Cravy... maybe it isn't the pitchers, but who's calling the pitches and who's coaching the pitchers. Maybe they're the ones that haven't made the adjustments.

[trwi7]

I've said it before but lack of a third pitch, specifically a changeup against lefties kills him. He had a decent one but the Brewers never made him throw it so it never improved and now he has trouble getting left handed hitters out because he throws a fastball that leaks to the middle of the plate and a slider that goes low and inside, which is where most lefties want it.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, I really believe a SP needs to have an off-speed pitch (whether it be a change or curve) to go along with FB/Slider.

[logan82]

He is a ground ball pitcher. Bad defense means bad ERA.

[MNBrew]

He is a ground ball pitcher. Bad defense means bad ERA.

That's not entirely true, and some of the "bad defense" would mean unearned runs, which of course have no bearing on ERA.

 

Wily's also getting hit kinda hard, which means many ground balls don't get to where fielders can field them.

[logan82]

Errors. Ugh. Bad defense does not mean errors. It is also poor range.

[FVBrewerFan]

He is a ground ball pitcher. Bad defense means bad ERA.

 

HRs and lasers off the wall are not ground balls. Both are up this year for Wily.

[JohnBriggs12]

He spent over 2 months on the shelf. He's been inconsistent. That's not surprising.

[FVBrewerFan]

Problem with that is he was every bit as inconsistent before the injury. (If by inconsistent you mean borderline crappy.)

[MrTPlush]

His biggest problem is the fact people have these unreasonable expectations for him. Way too many people get hard on him when he is just a mid rotation guy at best. A lot of people want to believe he has #2 potential.

[logan82]

His LD% is the lowest of his career. FB% is up a bit. The biggest thing is his K/9 is down. BABIP is up a bit. Other than that and K/9 the periferals all look the same. Seems like an off year. Doesn't look like he us getting hit any harder. Just relying on the defense to much.

[phnxcrew]

Going off the Jimmy Nelson thread if I'm management I make Wily work on his changeup all off season and all spring training. Even Sheets who had great control got knocked around because of only having two pitches. Wily is probably never going to have great control, but with his electric stuff and a solid change he can be the #2 his stuff indicates.

[DHonks]

Wily has Ace potential. 96 mph sinker?!??? that's almost unheard of. He still doesn't have a strikeout pitch. It's a nice slider, but doesn't get enough swing and misses. I advocated him returning to the team in the pen to focus on attacking hitters in shorter bursts and hopefully increase his strikeout rates. We've seen pitchers that struggle to attack hitters. I believe that's one thing the Cardinals do well, and I think their tendency to begin the starters in the pen allows them to learn how to go after guys.

[brewcrewdue80]

The last game I watched Peralta pitch. It seemed 70% of his breaking pitches were short and in the dirt. So Yeah. Hitters are sitting fastball and watching Breaking pitches be Balls. Can't throw your breaking pitches for strikes, you are forced to throw the Fastball and hitters are sitting Red on that pitch.

 

It's clear he's not going to be a 2. and each season he ages is going to bring on the Velocity loss concerns. He just doesn't have it in the head. Has to be it. Always been one where he or his fielders make mistakes and you see him come unrattled and it leads to runs. This just may be the best we ever see of him what he's given the team as a SP for these last 3 seasons.

 

I mentioned he should be offered up in trade with a high pricetag(Dodgers I believe) Going on that he's an innings eater respectable numbers for one. He's a Pitcher that say sent to the Cubs and given new tutelage with a new home probably gets the best out of him and he's a #2 that Milwaukee just isn't going to pull out of him. 4.13ERA at home-3.71ERA on the road. As I suggested he has broken down in between the ears many a time, and maybe pitching in Miller Park he's already facing demons. Keep him or trade he's really not going to disappoint me anymore. I expect 195IP if given 32 starts and a 4.05ERA. It's the fact that he was the team's #1 prospect that has everyone waiting for him to pitch 3.30-ish ERA. That thrilling 2hit 8IP game in 2012 didn't help. But that was his 13-21IP at the Majors. The book wasn't out on him, but our #1 prospect had just thrown that and you're left as a fan expecting those results from a guy who may be able to give that to you twice a month but not 4 times a month.

[pacopete4]

I think he could stand to lose some weight. Could help.

[danzig6767]

The last game I watched Peralta pitch. It seemed 70% of his breaking pitches were short and in the dirt. So Yeah. Hitters are sitting fastball and watching Breaking pitches be Balls. Can't throw your breaking pitches for strikes, you are forced to throw the Fastball and hitters are sitting Red on that pitch.

 

Throwing hard is a good thing, but big league hitters see mid-90's fastballs all of the time, so command of all pitches is hugely important. That's why there will always be a bunch of guys who don't throw as hard as others with a 95mph fastball, but are more productive simply because they command their pitches better.

 

A 95mph fastball in bad location will often get hit harder than a 90mph fastball on the corners, even more so if the guy with the bigger fastball lacks consistent command of his secondary pitches.

[AKCheesehead]

On the other side of his struggling, and I'm sorry for bringing this up for a SP, but they always like to say on broadcasts how he crushes it in BP. He has has a career OPS of .208. That is .012 higher than Ben Sheets. Heck, Jim Abbott had a .190 ops for us and he only has his left hand. Yeah, I know, he's a pitcher and the pitching stats are what matter. But he's 245 lb, strong as heck, and I'd like to see him help himself by smacking the ball a little.