How Do We Expect to Win?

[3and2Fastball]

'Stache's lineup does bring up the question of what we're going to do with Braun. I would love to trade him this offseason, as he has shown that he still has ability..... Getting out from under Braun's contract while adding some more talent to the prospect pool makes the future (beyond the next year or two) look even brighter.

 

 

Braun is currently the #10 RF in WAR in all of MLB. He is 6th among RF's in HR's, tied for 2nd in SB's, 7th in OBP, 7th in SLG %

 

There is real trade value there. I'd love to see a trade of Braun that brings back more prospects

[FVBrewerFan]

Oops, I meant Clark not Phillips (in terms of being too far away.)

 

As far as Braun goes, things can change quickly. Look at the 1B/3B situation a few years ago. It looked like they were loaded there, and every single player either got injured or crapped out. Even today we talk about SS depth, but Arcia is still the only one on the same track he has at the beginning of the season.

 

Sure, there is OF depth in the system, but that still needs to be played out. Don't get me wrong, I would still trade Braun in a heartbeat. But if you can't find a fair deal and he stays, not the end of the world. Plus, he can still be move to 1B. In fact, if he does stay I can almost guarantee that's what they do with him- just makes too much sense.

[tmwiese55]

Move him to LF and he'd probably be #1

[3and2Fastball]

Move him to LF and he'd probably be #1

 

According to Fangraphs WAR, he'd be #8 in LF. Although conceivably his defensive WAR totals would be better in LF. Cespedes has more than doubled Braun's WAR totals this year and is #1

[tmwiese55]

OK Cespedes makes sense. But who else is being counted as LF? maybe Pollack in AZ but I think he moves around and mostly plays CF. I think Upton is playing most LF this year but I'd take Braun over him. I couldn't quickly find one that breaks it down by positions. But just scanning teams I don't see anyone I'd take over him to play right now. Brantley in Cleveland could easily be argued above though and then guys like Upton, Braun, Cespedes are debatable.

 

Seems like all the big hitters for OFs this year are in CF and RF is all I was saying and all those guys can easily play LF, Braun included.

[bill hAll Star]

I think fans get a little too excited by their own prospects. In 5 years when some of those guys progress will 25% of them be decent MLB players? Maybe.

 

Yadiel Rivera - I'd rather have a journeyman utility player at 2B than him. Am I supposed to be excited about a 23-year-old 2B OPSing .570 in the PCL?

 

Gilbert Lara - Plenty of time to develop. However, he's 17 and has a sub-.600 OPS. I'll start to consider him down the road as he moves up the levels.

 

Clint Coulter - Again, only 21, but OPSing barely over .700 in A+ ball.

 

Monte Harrison - Very young, struggling after move up to A ball. Once again, could be good given that he's only 19...but he's only 19.

 

Gatewood - Struggling in A ball at age 19.

 

 

I'd say you can write off Yadiel Rivera as a productive MLB player and maybe Coulter. The rest of the guys are way too young, have plenty of talent, but aren't setting the world on fire (I don't expect them to, but they aren't banging on the door of AA).

 

Santana I like, but there was a write-up about how has one of the highest swing-and-miss percentages for a hitter of his stature. Phillips, yeah. Clark is 18 but has promise. Arcia of course looks like he is going to be very good.

 

Point being, am I supposed to be extremely excited about that lineup? Looks like 2 guys that have a high-percentage chance to be pretty good and a bunch of 17/18/19 year-old players with some talent. We're excited about the 17/18/19 year-old ones because they were high-ceiling draftees, but their numbers coupled with the percentage of guys that actually make it suggest a high failure rate.

[reillymcshane]

I think fans get a little too excited by their own prospects.

 

Yep, yep, yep. Totally agree. We all get wrapped up in our guys, but you're right, more fail than succeed. That's why you want and need to develop lots of guys. They fail more than not, some during the rise in the minors, others upon reaching the majors.

 

A few years ago I remember looking at Top 100 prospect pitchers over a 10 year or so range. Roughly 1 in 4 starting pitchers actually 'made it' as a starting pitcher in the majors (some pitchers became successful relievers, but I don't know what percentage that was). This wasn't just organizational type players, but Top 100 prospects - guys tapped as likely to succeed. I would think pitchers would have a higher injury issue than position players (just guessing), so it's important to remember this was just for pitchers. The point is that guys get hurt, guys stagnate, guys never develop like expected (physically and mentally), etc. You need quality and quantity of prospects. We have, sadly, lacked the former for a while, but it's nice to see things improving.

[FVBrewerFan]

This is also why you don't pay attention to position when making trades for minor leaguers. You want the best possible talent in return, and figure the rest out later. If one day we have a big problem with 6 ultra-talented OFs ready to play every day in MLB, I'll deal with that problem.

[monty57]

I think fans get a little too excited by their own prospects. In 5 years when some of those guys progress will 25% of them be decent MLB players? Maybe.

 

Yadiel Rivera - I'd rather have a journeyman utility player at 2B than him. Am I supposed to be excited about a 23-year-old 2B OPSing .570 in the PCL?

 

Gilbert Lara - Plenty of time to develop. However, he's 17 and has a sub-.600 OPS. I'll start to consider him down the road as he moves up the levels.

 

Clint Coulter - Again, only 21, but OPSing barely over .700 in A+ ball.

 

Monte Harrison - Very young, struggling after move up to A ball. Once again, could be good given that he's only 19...but he's only 19.

 

Gatewood - Struggling in A ball at age 19.

 

 

I'd say you can write off Yadiel Rivera as a productive MLB player and maybe Coulter. The rest of the guys are way too young, have plenty of talent, but aren't setting the world on fire (I don't expect them to, but they aren't banging on the door of AA).

 

Santana I like, but there was a write-up about how has one of the highest swing-and-miss percentages for a hitter of his stature. Phillips, yeah. Clark is 18 but has promise. Arcia of course looks like he is going to be very good.

 

Point being, am I supposed to be extremely excited about that lineup? Looks like 2 guys that have a high-percentage chance to be pretty good and a bunch of 17/18/19 year-old players with some talent. We're excited about the 17/18/19 year-old ones because they were high-ceiling draftees, but their numbers coupled with the percentage of guys that actually make it suggest a high failure rate.

 

I agree in large part with this post. However, Rivera is our #19 prospect (according to MLB.com) and he still could turn into an MLB player. Right now, we have two guys (Arcia and Phillips) who have a decent shot at being good MLB players, we have some guys who have tasted the MLB (Santana, Cravy, Goforth, Jungmann) and will have the opportunity to prove themselves during the early stages of the rebuild, and we have a whole bunch of guys who are young with upside. Looking at that Top 30, any of them could help out at the MLB level. Of course most will not, but it shows we have some depth and we now also are starting to get some star power, which we have lacked for quite a while.

 

Throw in that we have Lind, Braun, K-Rod and Lucroy who could be traded in the not-too-distant future and a good draft pick next year, and we could have a strong farm soon, which is absolutely necessary for a team in rebuild mode. A lot of parts will change over the next few seasons, but at least the change in draft strategy over the past couple of years and the trades made this season give me some hope for the future.

[fondybrewfan]

I will just like to add that Jorge Lopez might need to be included in the long term starting rotation. He is already at AA so a late call up next year isn't out of the realm of possibility. Plus you have all sorts of intriguing guys in A Ball including Medeiros, Williams, Kirby, Ponce, and Sneed who look like they have potential to be middle of the rotation guys.

 

As for position players also don't forget about Roache; he has taken a monumental step forward this year; not sure where he goes long term with the other outfielders we have but he certainly could fit in somewhere. But he is in AA and could contribute fairly soon as well. Arcia, Phillips, Roache, Reed could all be knocking on the doorstep fairly quickly.

[FVBrewerFan]

Roache is a guy that hasn't been mentioned much, and appears to be putting it all together.

 

All the SP you mention (throw in the 3 SP we just got in trades also) that seem to be middle of the rotation guys won't turn out that way. True. But it's also true that with the sheer number of guys that fit that profile, it's also possible 1 or 2 of them can develop into top of the rotation starters too.

[logan82]

As for position players also don't forget about Roache; he has taken a monumental step forward this year; not sure where he goes long term with the other outfielders we have but he certainly could fit in somewhere. But he is in AA and could contribute fairly soon as well.

Hopefully it isn't a Hunter Morris case. He needs more than one good year. I know he missed time right after the draft because he was hurt.

[The stache]

Baseball is a numbers game, and the Brewers, as a team that can't spend a lot of money in free agency, needs to develop their own talent, obviously. The best way we do that is by having good coaching throughout the system, and a lot of prospects with high upside. Some will fall by the wayside, yes. But the more good, young players we have, the better our odds that a few of them become impactful Major Leaguers. Obviously, Brett Phillips, Trent Clark, Domingo Santana, Tyrone Taylor, Clint Coulter, Montee Harrison, Michael Reed, Demi Orimoloye, Victor Roache and Kyle Wren all won't become big time players. Hell, most will probably fail, if the law of averages tells us anything. But if we get two or three really good outfielders from that batch, and one of those two or three is a star, we're good. We should get at least a couple really athletic fielders from this bunch-good defenders with good speed and power. If they can hit for average, and show plate discipline, the Brewers ought to do well.