How Do We Expect to Win?

[rickh150]

I have been accused of being a Brewers homer at work. No matter how awful the Brewers have been playing, I could see a positive. I even tried to see positives in September of 2007, September of 2014(well, not much), and April of 2015.

 

It is getting more difficult.

 

Why???

 

The signs around this organization are not good. The MLB is bad, even when supposedly key members are playing well. Our closer hasn't blown a save, Braun is an all-star, the bullpen, Nelson and Jungmann(???) are pitching well. Not to mention, our roster was relatively in tact and healthy in April, when we were the worst.

 

Sure, the Brewers might have a better young GM coming soon..... Maybe, who will be totally unproven. The Brewers might have a talented manager..... Maybe, who hasn't managed before or accomplished anything as a coach. The Brewers have an owner who is willing to spend to win..... But just to a point- tv money is getting ridiculous and our team has dimes to other teams dollars.

 

But it goes deeper, sadly. Look around the division.... Ugh! How depressing!!!!!.....

 

The Cardinals, whom seem to just naturally be good, have unbelievable good (and young)pitching with Wainright being hurt. They have a new huge tv deal that is going to kick in soon, as well, that can only hurt us.

 

The Cubs, whom I loathe, are going to be good for a while. Unlike us, when their guys get to free agency, they will sign them to monster deals that will keep them around and raise going rates for the little guys. The Cubs, in the middle of rehauling Wrigley for more income, will be enjoying a new tv deal soon, as well. I can't see the Cubs being below 500 in the next 8 years. Oh yeah, their minor league system is ranked ahead of ours too, even with Bryant, Russell, and others up and with the Gomez, Aram, Parra deals in the books.

 

The Pirates have a better major and ranked minor league system than us.

 

The Reds have a proven GM that won't keep them down long.

 

Looking around baseball, money is getting out of control. The Dodgers have a 300 mllion dollar payroll. Others, like the Cubs, are going to trend that way when the younger guys get older. The Braves are repositioning themselves to be good when their new ballpark opens and income goes up. The Mets pitching will allow them to be good, if not great, for a while and their attendance will continue to shoot up. The Giants have been champions 3 out of the past 5 years, and that cannot be ignored over the next 5 to 10 years.

 

So, how are we going to compete? The easy answer is to say be smart with drafting, trading and signing. To compete though, in the next 5 years, we need to be significantly better than many in trading and signing. Sadly, the money we have pales in comparison to many other teams. Even with revenue sharing, the gulf between the big and small is widening. With Cuba in play for more players on a widening (and unfair) international market, we are at a clear disadvantage on another playing field. Throw in the fact that there is no sign pointing to a MLB Worldwide Draft, we'll be even more at a disadvantage there until that is inevitably put into place.

 

Plus, sadly, our attendance will probably naturally go down next year. With the Bucks on a clear upward trend, I see individuals taking their season tickets and companies taking their boxes at Miller Park to the new Bucks' home for the next 5 years.

 

I sure hope our young guys (Arcia, Phillips, Clark, Hader,Houser, etc...), new GM, and Counsell are really good. Otherwise, how will we compete..... No scratch that,, WIN any time soon with many factors making it so difficult???

[rickh150]

Plus, I see this GM transition period to be a soap opera like atmosphere around the team that will not promote winning. Who will be staying?? Who is going?? If I am tight with Melvin, am I safe? The new GM won't be picking his manager(Counsell) or draft guy(Montgomery)?? Very questionable. I want to be on board with all this, but it is difficult to say all is upward in Brewer land.

[Bombers]

Oh I think all is upward in Brewer land. Just like in 2005 when the Packers needed to can Sherman from both posts. The Bears went on to win the division in 05 and 06 and appeared in the 2006 Super Bowl. I felt nothing but confident In the teams direction. It needed a change and so do the Brewers. 2018 Brewers season will be fun

[Bombers]

Looking around baseball, money is getting out of control. The Dodgers have a 300 mllion dollar payroll. Others, like the Cubs, are going to trend that way when the younger guys get older. The Braves are repositioning themselves to be good when their new ballpark opens and income goes up. The Mets pitching will allow them to be good, if not great, for a while and their attendance will continue to shoot up. The Giants have been champions 3 out of the past 5 years, and that cannot be ignored over the next 5 to 10 years.

 

...

Plus, sadly, our attendance will probably naturally go down next year. With the Bucks on a clear upward trend, I see individuals taking their season tickets and companies taking their boxes at Miller Park to the new Bucks' home for the next 5 years.

 

I 100% agree the money is out of control and as discussed at length no this board, baseball needs a change. But I don't see one in sight as it isn't even being discussed that it is a problem.

 

As for attendance, since Attanasio got the ownership gig, the Brewers haven't been under 2.2 million in attendance. Factors on why I don't see us ever going under 2 million again:

1. Milwaukee has a short summer thus us folks north of the wall, consume all summer related activities as often as possible for our two months. Especially with an owner who seems to care

2. We have a roof.

3. The Brewers marketing / promotional / sales teams are fantastic. I have 3 kids and they just absolutely love going to the park, win or lose.

[3and2Fastball]

Brett Phillips and Orlando Arcia might be star players. Coulter has the potential to be a significant contributor, too

 

Jungmann, Nelson, Peralta could develop more in 2016/2017

 

They need to draft smart. They need Gilbert Lara to develop. They need to invest wisely in International Players. Smart trades of veterans.

 

That is how.

[ewitkows]

Santana isn't a slouch either. All we really need is a legit 3B and a C prospect and we could compete again.

[3and2Fastball]

Santana isn't a slouch either. All we really need is a legit 3B and a C prospect and we could compete again.

 

And pitching. Can never have too much pitching

 

Santana looks like an all or nothing prospect. He could be a 30 HR & .400 OBP guy. That would be awesome

[paul253]

I actually think things could turn around as early as 2017 if they do things right. By do things right I mean give up on 2016. Trade Lucroy. He'll still bring back something significant even with his down year. Trade Lind because what's the point of keeping him? Then move Braun to 1b and let Santana play RF. Finally DONT make any significant FA signings. 2016 would probably suck bad but come 2017 you'll have Arcia Phillips and Santana as major contributors. You'll still have Peralta Nelson and Jungmann plus Hader Davies Lopez Cravy and/or Wagner filling in the back end. coulter will be close. reed will probably be up. And this doesn't even include the return for Lucroy and a likely top five pick next draft. Plus Harrison Williams Medeiros will all be two years closer.

 

As I'm writing this I'm realizing holy crap we have a lot of outfielders. Maybe eventually some could be moved for a third baseman.

[MrTPlush]

If all these big markets are getting giant TV deals it means the Brewers one will go up too. In theory there should just be more money and the gap between small and large markets shouldn't change. The Brewers will get a new TV deal soon too.

[ewitkows]

and then you have another wave as early as 18/19 in codi, gatewood , harrison , lara, allemand,clark , demiand diplan.

 

Sure not all of them will pan out but even if half do thats a ton of cheap players for 4-5 years

[splitterpfj]

Rick, the team is at the bottom right now for a reason, but keep that in mind, right now, is the bottom.

 

The farm system has more talent in it than its had in five years, and some of those young studs will be in Milwaukee by this time next year. This is like 2003-4, when we knew there was talent coming, but the big team still stunk.

 

The "rebuild" actually started the day Bruce Seid died. In a year, this team has a new scouting director, a new manager, a search for a new GM, its first draft class under Ray Montgomery, and ten young players who were acquired for major leaguers on their way out. That is major change.

 

It will take a while to reach the major league level, but for the organization, the worst is over.

 

Is financial disparity a real problem in baseball? Yes, of course it is. Baseball has undertaken dramatic change to combat the issue, since the owners lost the legal fight for a salary cap, but the money just grows again, widening the gaps.

 

It's not impossible to win in Milwaukee, or Kansas City, or Pittsburgh, but yes, it's harder than it would be in a larger market.

 

The bottom fell out, and the rebuild is underway - there will be good baseball in Milwaukee again.

[jerichoholicninja]

Honestly, this is the most positive I've felt about the Brewers long term outlook in quite awhile. Rick, you say your coworkers say you're homer? I'm guessing you are surrounded by fair weather, pseudo-Brewer fans who don't understand how baseball works. My aunt became a Brewer fan when they made the playoffs the first time with CC and the gang and has been following ever since. Last time I saw her she asked me how the Brewers expect to win by trading all of their good players. Baseball is just different that way. In the NFL and the NBA you can acquire a good player or two and turn your team into a playoff contender in one offseason. Not so much in baseball. You need to take a couple steps back before you can start moving forward.

[wildcat2237]

Rick, the team is at the bottom right now for a reason, but keep that in mind, right now, is the bottom.

 

The farm system has more talent in it than its had in five years, and some of those young studs will be in Milwaukee by this time next year. This is like 2003-4, when we knew there was talent coming, but the big team still stunk.

 

The "rebuild" actually started the day Bruce Seid died. In a year, this team has a new scouting director, a new manager, a search for a new GM, its first draft class under Ray Montgomery, and ten young players who were acquired for major leaguers on their way out. That is major change.

 

It will take a while to reach the major league level, but for the organization, the worst is over.

 

Is financial disparity a real problem in baseball? Yes, of course it is. Baseball has undertaken dramatic change to combat the issue, since the owners lost the legal fight for a salary cap, but the money just grows again, widening the gaps.

 

It's not impossible to win in Milwaukee, or Kansas City, or Pittsburgh, but yes, it's harder than it would be in a larger market.

 

The bottom fell out, and the rebuild is underway - there will be good baseball in Milwaukee again.

 

And dont forget, we are likely to see some big trades this winter.

 

Maybe Lucroy, maybe Braun, maybe Paralta, maybe Segura, maybe Lind, maybe Khris Davis.

 

Plus we will have a top pick and an early 2nd round pick in a really deep summer 2016 draft.

 

If the crew can add 3 or 4 more top 100 prospects by trade or draft they will have 7-10 total and will make the system top 3 in all of baseball.

 

Things will not happen fast. But as others have said 2017-2018 should look different.

 

My big concern is the consistent lack of an ace. Maybe just maybe Hader is that guy.

[tmwiese55]

Cardinals will always be good it seems. Cubs should have a nice run here for a while. But I have a feeling Pittsburgh's window will be closing around 2018/19 right when we're hoping to be good again, freeing up some wins for us. We'll see, but I have a feeling they'll go on a similar path as we did.

[MrTPlush]

It's hard to really predict how other teams will look compared to us in 2018 and beyound. Maybe the Cardinals won't be a powerhouse, maybe the Cubs have some pitching struggles, maybe Pittsburg is average, and maybe the Reds flop. All you can worry about is your team and the Brewers are giving themselves a bright future. Make yourself a 90win potential team and hope to strike some luck...that is what every team does every year. Coming into the season a lot of people were handing the Nationals the NL East and claiming them a 100win type team. Now they are just hovering over .500. No team ever goes into the season confident they can win the division. It takes a lot of hard work and luck. Many times the standings don't end up close to what preseason predictions looked like.

[reillymcshane]

You know, now is the time to be bad. The Cards, Pirates and Cubs are good. I see the Cubs as the upcoming juggernaut. They have so much money they can spend, a deep system, star talent developing. They have been better than I anticipated, and they have a nice mix of veterans and young talent.

 

So it's a bad time to mediocre - like we have been for the last few years. Even if a lot goes right we have too many teams that can beat us.

 

That's why now is the time to rebuild. Sure we'll get beat up for a few years, but like the Astros and Cubs, if you manage things well, draft well, you'll see the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Personally, I think people are deluding themselves if they think we are a few players away from contending. We lack big upside pitching and big upside hitting - both at the major league and minor league levels. We need to draft well the next few years, look to add talent in any way possible, and set ourselves up so that when we are ready to be a contender, we have lots of flexibility.

 

So now is the time to take our beatings. Bide our time, stock up on talent, develop talent. I just hope the club is patient enough to let it happen. We need to build a team that geared to win 90 games - not 80 (and hope we get lucky and win 6-8 more than we thought we would).

[tmwiese55]

What's crazy is the Cubs are exceeding expectations this year and really most of the young guys haven't done anything yet. Of course Bryant has been solid all year and the C that just came up has been great. But the pile of SS guys haven't really done much yet. They're so young and they're putting in their time, imagine when 2 or 3 others start hitting too. I'd put money they sign Price this offseason and then lookout next year.

[sveumrules]

I expect to win by either scoring more runs than the opposing team or by allowing fewer.

 

Any other strategy is pure folly.

[tmwiese55]

I expect to win by either scoring more runs than the opposing team or by allowing fewer.

 

Any other strategy is pure folly.

 

Haha. I saw Herm Edwards a few years ago on ESPN asked why the Broncos defense is so good (it was the Tebow year when they rode their D) and his answer was "they just don't let the other team score". I just had it on in the background while doing something else but I stopped and shut it off and do my best not to watch any NFL talking heads ever since. The games are fine but the hype machine around the NFL is unbearable.

[reillymcshane]

What's crazy is the Cubs are exceeding expectations this year and really most of the young guys haven't done anything yet. Of course Bryant has been solid all year and the C that just came up has been great. But the pile of SS guys haven't really done much yet. They're so young and they're putting in their time, imagine when 2 or 3 others start hitting too. I'd put money they sign Price this offseason and then lookout next year.

Astute trades - Arrieta, Rizzo - have really helped, delivering all star caliber players to the team. Other guys acquired in trades - Montero, Russell and Fowler - have contributed. Free agency has been mixed for Chicago - as it is for most teams, but the team had shed a lot of payroll allowing itself to add a top tier guy like Lester. As noted, Schwarber and Bryant have been good. Solar's been passable.

 

The club has a nice future. I think their biggest undoing will be Theo getting greedy and overextending the team with veterans (think about him adding Crawford and Gonzalez back in Boston). Those guys are great if you have a need, but you don't want to saddle your club with too many big contracts like that.

[rickh150]

Our division looks solid, if not great, for the forseeable future. Do not gloss over that! Sure, we could be better. Yet, so what.....When you look at the teams ahead of us, our best hope, sadly, might be third in the central for the next few years.

 

We have no clear advantage on any of the teams in the division( money, major or minor league talent, veteran leadership, new avenues for more income, international market leader, experience).

Right now, in this moment, I would gladly take one wild card playoff appearance in the next five years (hoping that lands playoff wins and a championship) and hope/plan for better days after that.

 

I originally liked the idea that we could compete in 2017 or 2018. Yet, then, the Cubs will be in their heyday and the Cards will be spending substantially more $ too. And have you seen their pitching? Even my homer tendencies have been squashed... Competing for the playoffs in the next few years? Pipe dream.

 

Put me down for the four to five year plan. No big splashes in free agency. Draft well.... Keep talent in AAA longer than usual. Trade for younger talent. Bring Arcia, Phillips, Hader, Houser, etc. others up in May of 2017. Getting to .500 in the next five years will be tough, whether trying to compete or rebuild.

 

Right now, it is 2002 in my mind.

[xisxisxis]

Right now, it is 2002 in my mind.

 

It really isn't as bad as 2002 as we have a better minor league system and still have some trading chips (Lucroy and Braun). The brewers will always be the last team in MLB for market and likely local TV revenue. We need to move past that and realize it is what it is, that doesn't mean the Brewers can't be competitive. To be competitive they have to be smarter and right now we are stuck with an organization that is mired in 45+ years of not being smart enough. It isn't impossible to do get smart people, but with some of the historic issues and current leadership, there are definite negatives that make it less likely the Brewers can be competitive for the top young GM talent. Not impossible, but the Brewers need to start putting their house in shape. A complete cleanout with a new GM might be enough, but it might take incremental steps to put into process the changes needed to make the brewers an attractive place for the best in baseball.

 

Many people here don't remember what a dumpster fire the packers organization was in the 70's and 80's. They were the milwaukee brewers of the NFL - an organization that was completely adrift, lost and nobody of quality wanted to work for. That changed with a few key decisions including replacing the top guy. The Brewers are in the same situation, except they don't have a ton of lombardi trophies to fall back on. The Brewers need to change the organization in fundamental ways from the bottom to the top. Maybe Mark A can accomplish it, maybe he continues to be a part of the problem, but I would like to see real changes to address these issues. 2002 again? nope, but it does seem like we have lost 13-14 years.....

[rickh150]

Comparing the NFL and MLB??? The NFL has a salary cap and shared tv revenue. Put that in baseball and the Brewers now and always would be in much better shape. All small market teams would be in better shape. The Packers, without revenue sharing, would be a shell of themselves, not being able to keep Rodgers, Matthews, Jordy and other drafted stars because others could and would offer the moon to get them because of no cap and no shared money......

 

Packers..... Very fortunate to be existing and thriving in professional sports.

Brewers..... Like all other small market teams in MLB, struggling to find any consistent winning. Although there is revenue being shared, and I would love to see how much the Brewers are getting this year, the gap is getting bigger because of these major tv deals. The new commish needs to get ahead of this issue in the new CBA.

[rickh150]

Old regime members including Montgomery, Montgomery's "guys, "Counsell, Counsell's "guys", Melvin and Melvin's "guys", along with an owner that does deals with agents (Boras) are all sitting on the Brewers new bandwagon...... Waiting to be driven by a phantom 35 year old newbie who is supposedly going to bring new thinking, new ways, and analytics to the team?

 

My thinking is....... Everybody get off the bus. The new experienced GM will decide who gets on. Give him two or three months this winter to decide. I'm not for doing all these changes on the fly over the course of the next four years.

[clancyphile]

Right now, it is 2002 in my mind.

 

It really isn't as bad as 2002 as we have a better minor league system and still have some trading chips (Lucroy and Braun). The brewers will always be the last team in MLB for market and likely local TV revenue. We need to move past that and realize it is what it is, that doesn't mean the Brewers can't be competitive. To be competitive they have to be smarter and right now we are stuck with an organization that is mired in 45+ years of not being smart enough. It isn't impossible to do get smart people, but with some of the historic issues and current leadership, there are definite negatives that make it less likely the Brewers can be competitive for the top young GM talent. Not impossible, but the Brewers need to start putting their house in shape. A complete cleanout with a new GM might be enough, but it might take incremental steps to put into process the changes needed to make the brewers an attractive place for the best in baseball.

 

I am an eternal optimist vis-a-vis the Brewers.

 

The Brewers have had talent in the front office before. Jack Z, for instance. Doug Melvin, overall, has been a very good GM, I think. Ray Montgomery seems to have done well with the draft.

 

The real key is for Attanasio to trust the people he's hired to do their jobs.