2007 Draft Resource Thread

[Blazer25]

Quote:

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So I really hope they draft an athletic but unpolished prep RHP, preferably with a smooth delivery and a big need to develop command and his secondary pitches.

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Actually Parker is pretty polished. He's more Gallardo than Rogers.

 

I'd take him in a heartbeat at 7...I just don't think he'll still be there.

[GagneCY03]

BA.com has released their first official mock draft. It's a subscriber article, so I wont post it, but I thought I'd mention that they have the Brewers taking Mike Moustakas.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Actually Parker is pretty polished. He's more Gallardo than Rogers.

 

Polished I can live with. It's these guys with a screaming fast but straight fastball, that would be great if they could only find the plate, or throw something other than a fastball. My post wasn't about anyone in particular, though it seems to match profiles of guys like Harvey in addition to Rogers. Aumont might be the guy that scares me most...he just seems like he was born with a Brewers target on his back.

 

But I'm not an expert by any stretch of the imagination....

[colbyjack]

David Rawnsley's draft notebook from late last week focuses on some of the performances from last Wednesday's Perfect Game Pre-Draft Showcase in Cedar Rapids, Iowa:

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/dr...51807.aspx

 

Alabama CF D.J. Jones was one of the players that impressed, running the 60-yard dash in the 6.35 range. I recently spoke with Jones, and that feature is currently up at PG Crosschecker:

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/20...ight3.aspx

 

My Crack of the Bat column from last week broke down the teams picking among the top 15, and what their recent trends have been in the draft while trying to identify which teams may be more likely to sign a more difficult sign (such as Boras advisees):

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/cr...st_demand/

 

Also, I'm going to try and have my lengthy draft preview story posted on Brewerfan.net's homepage by the end of the week.

[Blazer25]

Colby,

 

Great job on the article Colby.

 

As a Brewer fan I hope you're wrong on Aumont. Too much risk with him for me.

[GagneCY03]

CJ, also just read your article. Great work as usual.

[colbyjack]

John Manuel of BA conducted a draft chat late last week. One note on the Brewers:

 

Quote:

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Q: Jason from Green Bay, WI asks:

What do you think the Brewers are going to do at #7 and will Lee Haydel get signed by the team?

 

A: John Manuel:

They want to sign Haydel, but they can't right now--he's playing in the NJCAA World Series in Grand Junction. I think they'll get it done. Jack Zduriencik is a great talent evaluator and we're hearing Milwaukee will spend, so we've heard the Moustakas connection but also wouldn't be shocked if they took Matt Wieters, if he was falling.

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The Brewers always spend when it comes to the draft, and we've been talking about how pricey a few of their DFEs could be for a couple of weeks now. Keep in mind Manuel isn't saying the Brewers are in the running for Wieters, just that he wouldn't be surprised if he was their pick (I would be surprised, and elated, if he were).

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers always spend when it comes to the draft,

 

The Brewers have been bigtime frugal when it comes to the draft in the Mark Attanosio era. The teams has ranked just 23rd in signing budget the last 3 years. Thats pretty sad considering the team picked 5th 2 of those 3 years.

 

The team results have been good despite there penny pinching ways, so hopefullt Attanosio is realizing that he has the right peolpe in place here to invest his money in.

 

Adding Moustakas would be a bigtime cue. He has a very good chance of being the best player to come out of this draft. He has more power and better defensive tools than Vitters.

[colbyjack]

X, where have you gotten those figures? Are they based on BA's ranking of the top 10 rounds? Does it factor in total draft budget (picks signed after the 10th round, DFEs, international free agents such as Rolando Pascual, etc.)?

 

I'm not saying I doubt you, but being 23rd in the league, particularly given their draft slot in 2004 and 2005 as you mentioned, would alter my perspective on the Brewers drafts in relationship to money the past few years, and would essentially put the bed any idea that the Brewers are more aggressive in regards to the draft since Mark Attanasio has taken over, as some have suggested.

[Never Outhustled]

X, where have you gotten those figures? Are they based on BA's ranking of the top 10 rounds? Does it factor in total draft budget (picks signed after the 10th round, DFEs

 

It is calculated from BAs 10 round figures. It does not include players signed after round 10 or DFEs, as all the DFEs for the Brewers have been drafted after round 10. I should have noted that. However, I don't think that it would have a big impact. Many other teams have a higher sign later in the draft, and bonus money for some of those can be found in BAs advanced draft database. For example, Boston spent 1.25 Million total on there 16th and 18th picks last year, and the Cubs spent 500 K on 14th rounder Drew Rundle. The Angels are 1 of the few teams rated behind us, but would jump past us if I added in the 2.1 million they spent in 2004 on middle rounders Nick Adenhart and Mark Trumbo. Many teams sign DFEs. The Brewers did not have a big ticket DFE the last 3 years. Many of the teams that don't use the DFE process sign more players originally. If I added in the extra 400 K for RJ Seidel or the extra 100K for Alex Perdiard, without adding in others teams later signings, it would have almost no impact on the rankings. A majority of big ticket signings after round 10 are HS players, and the Brewers have signed just 6 HS players total after round 10 in the last 3 drafts.

[1e Corbeau]

Are those rankings potentially skewed due to the Brewers' lack of sandwich round picks? When the big market teams are constantly picking up high picks due to Type-A and -B FA compensation, I would imagine that the aggregate dollars spent, as well as the average per pick, would be a lot higher than the Brewers, who didn't have a #2 in 2005 and didn't have any supplemental picks over the last few years, right?

 

Plus, we've ponied up quite a bit more than two-thirds of the MLB in international signings the past three years (and DFEs, too). Not Boras money, but $500 to $850k here and there adds up.

 

As always, colby, your work is phenomenal and makes BF a daily event, despite some of the shenanigans and repetitions of the Major League forum side...

[colbyjack]

Thanks X. I appreciate you sharing that info.

 

I still would contend that it is difficult for me to call the team frugal in regards to signing bonuses just by looking at the collective amounts they have spent on their top 10 picks the past 3 years. So many other things come into play, as I'm guessing most of the 22 teams ahead of the Brewers on the list has had at least one compensation pick within that time frame, with teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, A's, Braves, etc. being high on the list despite consistently drafting in the 2nd half of the first round. The teams that have consistently drafted ahead of the Brewers are also going to be automatically ahead of the Crew, as the Royals last two first round picks, Alex Gordon and Luke Hochevar, alone probably cost close to all of the Brewers top 10 picks the past two years combined.

 

Not having a 2nd round pick in 2005 (which allowed the team to sign Rolando Pascual) is a factor, you already pointed out a few later round picks such as Periard and Seidel, and I would throw LeClercq (sp?) onto that pile as well. While the team hasn't had a DFE candidate that everyone is well aware of, guys like Lorenzo Cain, Darren Ford and Zach Braddock signed for more money that you may think (and for the record, the Brewers have been one of only a handful of teams that have been as aggressive using the DFE process the past few years).

 

No, they don't go over slot value much, pretty much adhering to the commissioners office's recommendations, which is frustrating when players such as Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew and possibly Matt Wieters become available, but pick-by-pick, they aren't cheap, as they don't reach for a player and sign them for below slot value (like they did when Bando was the GM).

 

I don't suppose you have the list of the teams in order with the amount they have spent?

[Never Outhustled]

So many other things come into play, as I'm guessing most of the 22 teams ahead of the Brewers on the list has had at least one compensation pick within that time frame, with teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, A's, Braves

 

Sure, some of the teams that spent more than the Brewers had more picks, just like all 7 teams that spent less than the Brewers had less picks. The annoying part is when similar market divisional teams without extra picks like the Pirates and Reds outspend Milwaukee, and teams with somewhat significantly fewer picks, like the Cubs and Tigers, outspend the Brewers by over $3 million each.

 

which allowed the team to sign Rolando Pascual

 

What ever happened to the budget we used to have for signing latin players? Wasn't the idea of closing down there academy in the Dominican suppose to save money for signings like this?

 

No, they don't go over slot value much, pretty much adhering to the commissioners office's recommendations, which is frustrating when players such as Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew and possibly Matt Wieters become available,

 

Homer Bailey is an example here of how not paying a little over slot has burned us. The Reds were willing to pay it, and thats part of how they outspent Milwaukee without having extra picks.

 

but pick-by-pick, they aren't cheap, as they don't reach for a player and sign them for below slot value

 

Ya , your right, though both Jeffress and Rogers took a little less than slot, as did disappointing 3rd rounder Josh Wahpahpah, though not significant amounts.

 

While the team hasn't had a DFE candidate that everyone is well aware of, guys like Lorenzo Cain, Darren Ford and Zach Braddock signed for more money that you may think

 

I'd hope they would pony up to sign a few of these guys from the draft of 2004, as they originally only signed 8 players after round ten, and half of them were college seniors. 25 players total seems to usually be the bottom number of players signed, and I've counted as many as 35 a few times. I didn't take the time to count up all the signings for each team, because many of these later signings are just cheap college players, and have little impact on budgetts.

 

I don't suppose you have the list of the teams in order with the amount they have spent?

 

Sure, I could do that, I'll try to get it posted by the end of the week.

 

 

In all, I was maybe a little harsh calling them extremely frugal. I'll just say somewhat frugal, or just unaggressive. However, I see little eveidence to call them spenders, and I really hope that changes this year, like we're hearing.

[colbyjack]

X, awesome post, and good points all around. It definitely has made me re-think my position on the Brewers drafting the past few years.

 

Bringing up Homer Bailey and his position in 2004 is a good point, and a recurring theme on both this board and the minor league forum. How much did his bonus demands come into play? Did the team really have Mark Rogers ranked higher on their board than Bailey (and keep in mind there were reports that other teams did as well), or did money play a part in their decision? How much does money play a part in the decision of teams that do have a player such as Mark Rogers ranked higher on their boards than someone like Homer Bailey? Will we see the same this year should someone like Rick Porcello not be taken as early as second overall, and could Jarrod Parker be the first prep pitcher taken since many claim he could be just as good as Porcello despite not having the ideal pitching stature that Porcello does?

 

The same argument has been made about Cameron Maybin from the 2005 draft. While I entered that year's draft completely comfortable with whoever the Brewers took (you couldn't go wrong with the rumored names of Braun, Maybin, Tulowitzki and even Romero), many felt Maybin was a no-brainer for the pick, and many felt Maybin wasn't the pick because he was asking for too much money. It's a hard argument to make now, since Braun is obviously with the big-league club, hitting in the heart of the lineup, and is expected to be a huge contributor for years to come, making the Maybin vs. Braun argument, for now, a waste of time.

 

Obviously if the Rogers pick would have worked out better than what it has to date we wouldn't even be talking about this, but it is an interesting decision to me, and probably one that we will never truly know the answer unless Jack Z. himself decides to fill us all in.

 

If Moustakas is available when the Brewers pick, and the team passes on him, it will be a tough pill to swallow. We have heard a lot of rumors leading up to this draft that the team will not let money be as big of an issue. I don't expect that to mean that they're in a position to take Matt Wieters, as that would likely mean spending more than twice than what the slot value would dictate (not based on Wieters projected signing bonus, but his overall deal), but Moustakas should fall into the same category as players such as Bailey and Maybin.

 

The only reason I didn't have the Brewers taking Moustakas in my draft preview story is because I have heard a few rumblings that he won't even be available. Having Max Scherzer re-enter the draft could be a huge help to the Brewers, as it means one player falls, even if it is Scherzer himself (another player I don't expect the Brewers to take).

 

Anyway, good stuff. The team still has a few DFEs to take care of within the next 24 hours, as I have been trying to determine whether or not Lee Haydel is worth the near-seven figure bonus he reportedly is looking for.

[GagneCY03]

Jordan Walden has signed with the Angels for $1 million.

 

www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=54

 

Matt Latos and Max Scherzer also signed with the Padres and D Backs. More info at BA.com.

[colbyjack]

This year I took a stab at a mock draft in my Crack of the Bat column:

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/cr...rojection/

 

The folks at the Brew Crew Review were kind enough to have me on their show for a draft preview, which should be hitting TW Cable's Wisconsin On Demand very soon. Craig (the host) and I conducted a mock draft up to the 7th pick. I believe the only different between that draft and the one linked just above up to the 7th pick is the Pirates pick, which is the hardest team to get a read on of those that pick before the Brewers.

[GagneCY03]

Perfect Dodgers' pick, CJ.

[Never Outhustled]

Feel freee to load up todays BA Chat with Allen Mathews with Brewers related questions.

[Never Outhustled]

Not alot of Brewer related questions, but I thought this one was huge news

 

Q: Martin from Fox Vally, WI asks:

Thanks for your awesomeness. Are you hearing the Brewers might pony up for a Boras client like Moustakas, or even Wieters?

 

A: Alan Matthews: If Wieters falls, a source reported that the Brewers were doing their best to make sure they had a good last look at him, by sending some upper level scouting personnel into Jacksonville, Fla., for the ACC tournament, so it's a possibility they would be willing to spend the money to get him at No. 7 if he falls.

[Brew Man Dan]

I hope I'm posting my question in the right thread. Anyway, here goes. Is there a time limit for a team to pick a player, or do they have as long as they want. Also, how fast does the first round normally go?

[DHonks]

Is there a time limit for a team to pick a player, or do they have as long as they want. Also, how fast does the first round normally go?

 

before they started doing the draft show broadcasts on the internet, they simply broadcast the conference call. All rounds went rapid fire, usually 2-4 picks taking place each minute, with short 5-15 minute breaks every few rounds

[Big Reed]

I distinctly remember wanting the brewers to draft C Taylor Teagarden in 2005, and they drafted Inman instead. Teagarden received the highest bonus of any third round pick. But it was only $725k compared to the $500 k the brewers gave Inman. Inman wasn't a bad pick either.

 

I feel the results are skewed because of the many supplemental picks that other teams have had after the first rounds. it's been a long time since the brewers had a supplemental first round pick. there were 14 first round supp picks in 2006 and 18 in 2005. When comparing team spending, those teams with supplemental picks are going to rate higher than teams without them.

 

there have also been unique signings in baseball the last 5 years that would make the brewers look a little cheap. the mariners in 2005 gave third round pick Tuisosopo a $2.290 million bonus just to prevent him from playing football. texas in 2003 gave second round pick Sinisi a $2 million bonus. I'm not sure why the dbacks felt like they needed to give Justin Upton a $6 million bonus. but these and others are exceptions to the rule and lead people t o believe the brewers were unwilling to spend money..

 

While the brewers may not spend the most of any team, i have confidence that money is no longer a deterant to them going after a quality player in the first round as it once was.

[1e Corbeau]

Jonathan Mayo's latest mock draft is up. Fun, but nothing new, really.

 

He's got the Brewers taking Jarrod Parker, with Aumont going five (!) to O's. Is it me, or have there been conflicting reports on whether Aumont has pitched well or poorly this spring?

 

FWIW, Moustakas is projected to fall to the D-Backs at #9.

 

1-10:

 

1. Price - TB

2. Porcello - KC

3. Vitters- CHN

4. Detwiler - PIT

5. Aumont - BAL

6. Moskos - WAS

7. Parker - MIL

8. Schmidt - COL

9. Moustakas - ARI

10. Wieters - SF

 

I'd be happy with Parker over Aumont, but I would be not happy if we passed on Moustakas. I still don't know about Wieters... I do know in Jack We Trust is second only to In Doug We Trust for me.

 

Is this the year colby hits the pick?

[SoCalBrewfan]

I'd think monsieur corbeau would be in support of Aumont. Bien sur. Aumont at five seems surprising to me, but who can ever figure out Baltimore?

 

Just based on what I read, Parker seems a better pick than Aumont, so that mock wouldn't be terrible...but I'd wonder about picking on both Moustakas and Wieters. The fussing and screaming on bf.net would be something to behold...

[colbyjack]

The Cubs reportedly may be moving off of Vitters, either sliding back to Wieters, focusing in on Moustakas or possibly going after Parker.

 

If Vitters slides that's good news for the Pirates. If Vitters is the Cubs pick, I think the Pirates selection could be relatively surprising.

 

And as I've noted before, the Nats are connected to Moustakas more and more. I don't think I've seen them connected to Moskos at all up until Mayo's recent mock draft. Everyone seems to be convinced that the Nats will take an arm.

 

Schmidt at #8? That would be a reach. If he pitches like he does now (elevating high-80s fastballs) at Coors Field he will get eaten alive.

 

The Giants have a ton of extra, early picks. Wieters is a good fit for them (although he's a good fit with most teams outside of maybe the Braves, Twins, Dodgers and any other team with a young and established stud catcher), but I don't know how they would be able to sign all of their first-rounders with even one difficult sign in the mix.